The Magnificent Seven: Bowl Season

With the late Thanksgiving, bowl season kind of snuck up on us. It actually begins on Saturday with the Salute to Veterans Bowl beginning after the annual Army/Navy game. We had a pretty good regular season although we stumbled to the finish with back to back losing weeks. We'll try and end on a positive note.     

Last Week: 1-2

Overall: 55-45-1

Frisco Bowl @ Frisco

Memphis -4.5 West Virginia

The Mountaineers opened as a small favorite in this game, so we are getting the very worst of the number, but I still like Memphis in this spot. The Tigers have a chance to finish in the final AP Poll for the first time since their Cotton Bowl appearance in 2019. It appears head coach Ryan Silverfield will be sticking around for at least another season while West Virginia fired their head coach and is going back to an old flame. Perhaps Rich Rod will raise the team's ceiling, but he will not be around for this bowl game. Memphis has continuity and proper motivating in facing a power conference team. The Tigers are 3-3 straight up against power conference teams under Silverfield. Included among those victories is an upset against Iowa State in last year's Liberty Bowl. Memphis is not a team I like to back as a favorite, but the Tigers have performed well in bowl games under Silverfield, posting a 3-1 mark with their lone loss coming to Penn State in the aforementioned Cotton Bowl which was Silverfield's first game after taking over for the departing Mike Norvell. I think this could go sideways for West Virginia, so even though the best number is long gone, back the Tigers. 

Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton

Western Kentucky +8.5 James Madison

Western Kentucky just had the brakes beat off of them in the Conference USA Championship Game, so I can understand why James Madison is such a large favorite in this spot. However, I think Jacksonville State, with their run-based spread attack were especially effective at exploiting the Western Kentucky defense. James Madison, a team that finished second to last in the Sun Belt in yards per play, will not be able to consistently produce explosive runs against Western Kentucky. The Dukes were mediocre as a favorite in 2024, posting a 5-5 ATS record in the role while losing four times outright! I like to back teams that just suffered an embarrassing defeat and Western Kentucky fits that description perfectly. Plus, the Hilltoppers are 4-1 in bowl games under head coach Tyson Helton, with three of the wins coming as a betting underdog. James Madison was probably the best team in the Sun Belt this past season, but they were extremely inconsistent, finishing 4-4 in Sun Belt play despite going off as a favorite in every conference games. Another outright loss as a favorite would not shock me. 

Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu

South Florida +4 San Jose State

In the offseason, I informed regular readers that the Hawaii Bowl was the bowl game most likely to feature an upset. Since 2005, betting line underdogs have won the Hawaii Bowl outright ten times. This feels like it could easily be number eleven. San Jose State should be intimately familiar with this phenomenon as they were upset in this very game by Coastal Carolina last year. Perhaps the Spartans have learned from last year's trip and are better prepared to handle the travel and other distractions that go hand in hand with a trip to the islands. Even if one were to manually adjust this number by a small amount in the direction of the Spartans, I can't see how they are laying four points. South Florida plays in a better conference, closed the year strong by winning four of six, and is playing in just their second bowl game in the past six seasons. The Bulls are not far removed from a 1-11 season, so I don't think they will take this postseason spot for granted. And while the Bulls will be starting their backup quarterback as Byrum Brown has missed the last half of the season with an injury, San Jose State inexplicably benched their best quarterback. Emmett Brown, who I hope goes by 'Doc', was the primary quarterback in San Jose State's first five games. The Spartans were 4-1 in that span and averaged over 35 points per game. Walker Eget began receiving playing time against Colorado State and eventually usurped Brown. Eget has been the primary quarterback in seven games. The Spartans are 3-4 in those contests and have averaged just under 22 points per game. Back the Bulls this holiday season as they should be giving points instead of receiving them. This game kicks off at 8 PM on Christmas Eve, so if things work out right, you should be able to head to Midnight Mass with a few extra bucks in your pocket.

GameAbove Sports Bowl @ Detroit

Toledo +7 Pittsburgh

Neither of these teams are probably excited to head to Detroit the day after Christmas. Pitt had modest expectations before the season, but began the year 7-0 and rose as high as 18th in the AP Poll before losing their final five games. Three of those five losses were by double digits, so the Panthers were not necessarily unlucky in their skid. The offense completely went in the tank halfway through the season. In their first four games against FBS competition, the Panthers averaged nearly 39 points per game. In their final seven games against FBS teams, the Panthers averaged just 22 points per game. That span also includes a 41-point outburst against Syracuse where they scored three defensive touchdowns. Injuries are partially to blame as quarterback Eli Holstein missed some time, but the offense seriously regressed once conference play began. Meanwhile, Toledo harbored visions of a MAC title in August and after throttling Mississippi State in Starkville, probably had pipe dreams of a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff. Alas, the Rockets lost four times in MAC play and were never really in contention. I do think the Rockets will be more motivated in this spot with an opportunity to knock off a power conference team. As I mentioned, the Rockets dominated Mississippi State earlier this season which was their first victory against a power conference opponent under Jason Candle. The Rockets had come close on a few other occasions (Notre Dame in 2021 and Illinois in 2023). Toledo is the more motivated team and is catching points. They are the play. 

Liberty Bowl @ Memphis

Texas Tech -2.5 Arkansas

Texas Tech is your People's Champ in the Big 12. The Red Raiders knocked off both Big 12 Championship Game participants (Arizona State and Iowa State). Of course, since the Red Raiders did not find themselves in Arlington on the first Saturday in December, they were not able to take care of business in their other seven Big 12 games. Still, Texas Tech finished with a winning conference record for the third consecutive season under Joey McGuire. For context, they finished with a losing Big 12 record for a dozen consecutive years (2010-2021) before McGuire's arrival. Arkansas finished with a losing SEC record for the third straight season, but got back to a bowl to save Sam Pittman's job. This game should feature. lots of points as both the Red Raiders and Razorbacks finished near the bottom of their respective conference in yards allowed per play (both allowed over six per play to conference foes). I like Texas Tech in this battle of former Southwest Conference teams for a few reasons. For starters, Arkansas was loose with the football this season. The Razorbacks fumbled 28 times this season, most in the nation, and lost a little less than half of those fumbles (13) so it could have been much worse. The Razorbacks also threw nine interceptions giving them 22 total turnovers on the season (114th nationally). In addition, Pittman just had hip surgery after the completion of the regular season, so the team's preparation for the Red Raiders may suffer. Finally, Texas Tech is 2-0 (I know, small sample size) in bowl games under McGuire and a victory here would give Texas Tech nine wins for the first time since 2009! Arkansas has already lost one game to the Big 12 this season, as they fell in Stillwater to an Oklahoma State team that did not win a single Big 12 game. Back the Red Raiders as a small favorite.

Pinstripe Bowl @ New York City

Boston College +2.5 Nebraska

One season after playing a bowl game close to home in Fenway Park, Boston College travels to another American League East stadium to face Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are playing in their first bowl game since 2016! In even more depressing news for Nebraska fans, the Cornhuskers have not (a) won a bowl game and (b) finished with a winning record since 2013! Should Nebraska really be a small favorite against the Eagles? Nebraska pounded what ended up being a pretty good Colorado team in their second game, but have not really had an impressive performance since. Their other five victories have come against an FCS team, the dregs of FBS (UTEP), and three mediocre to bad Big 10 teams (Purdue, Rutgers, and Wisconsin). Rutgers did finish 7-5, but Wisconsin finished with a losing record for the first time in ages, and Purdue went winless in the Big 10. Purdue was also Nebraska's sole win away from Lincoln this season. Meanwhile, Boston College won three of four to close the year and seem to be playing better since benching quarterback Thomas Castellanos. This is Bill O'Brien's first bowl game as a collegiate head coach and despite playing in the ACC, I think the Eagles are the better and more motivated team. While this is Nebraska's first bowl game in nearly a decade, I think the Cornhuskers expected to have a better season when they were 3-0 and ranked 22nd in the AP Poll. Back the Eagles as a slight underdog and see if they petition to play a bowl game in Camden Yards next season.   

Sun Bowl @ El Paso

Louisville -2.5 Washington

Fresh off a spot in College Football Playoff Championship Game, Washington posted a perfectly mediocre record in their first year as a Big 10 member. It was eery how good they were at some aspects of football and how bad they were at others that ultimately led to a pretty basic year. The Huskies were unbeaten at home, posting a 6-0 record and outscoring their opponents by 99 points. Away from home, they were 0-6 and were outscored by 103 points. The Husky dichotomy didn't stop there. Washington had one of the better pass defenses in the nation, allowing under six yards per throw. They also had a pretty bad run defense, allowing nearly four and half yards per carry. In the Sun Bowl, the Huskies face a team that was a few plays away from a special season. After a soft ACC schedule last year helped them reach the conference title game for the first time, Louisville's schedule stiffened significantly. The Cardinals faced the top three teams in the ACC (Clemson, Miami, and SMU) and went 1-2 against the trio with both losses coming by a touchdown. They also lost to Notre Dame in the non-con by a touchdown and inexplicably blew a big lead to Stanford and lost on a last second field goal. This Louisville team may be better than last year's ACC runner up and certainly has an easier opponent in the bowl game. Last season, the Cardinals faced a disappointing Southern Cal team and were humbled by the Trojans. Washington is not in the same stratosphere of talent as that Southern Cal team that Louisville was somehow favored by a touchdown against. Maybe the betting market is wary of backing Louisville in the postseason, but this feels like one of the bigger mismatches between power conference opponents in bowl season. Take the Cardinals to cover this small number. 

Army/Navy Thoughts

I love the triple option and both these teams are good this season, so I will definitely be watching the non-conference conference game between the Black Knights and Midshipmen. With the unique positioning of the Army/Navy game after Championship Weekend, I wonder if there is any hangover after Army's victory against Tulane last week. In 2016, Navy hosted the AAC Championship Game the week before they took on Army. Navy lost the AAC Championship Game to Temple and then lost to Army for the first time in fifteen years. One similar prior event is not a trend, but I'm more curious than usual how this game plays out. 

College Football Playoff Thoughts

Regular readers know I love to use the preseason AP Poll to handicap the NCAA Tournament and college football championship games. Thus, while I am absolutely rooting for SMU and Indiana in the opening round of the expanded College Football Playoff, I would not advise you to wager on them. 

The preseason AP Poll did a pretty good job of picking the playoff field. Six of the top ten in the preseason AP Poll made the field and two more were pretty close (number five Alabama and number six Ole Miss). Will the preseason AP Poll serve as a solid predictor of success in the field? I think so, but we have no data to back that up yet. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XV

Hard to believe, but the regular season is over. We rebounded from a horrendous regular season last year. Let's see if we can keep them momentum up during Championship Weekend. Since there are only nine scheduled games this week, there will only be three picks. Enjoy.     

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 54-43-1

UNLV +4 Boise State

Fresno State ended a potential electoral travesty in the Mountain West when they knocked off Colorado State two weeks ago. Had the Rams won, they would have finished unbeaten in the Mountain West and earned a spot in the title game opposite Boise State despite a poor statistical profile. No shade to the Rams, but the Broncos and Rebels are the two best teams in the conference and the winner is most likely headed to the College Football Playoff barring a massive Army win against Tulane. These two teams faced off a week before Halloween in Las Vegas and the Broncos eked out a five point victory. However, since that game, the Broncos appear to be leaking oil. They dominated San Diego State, but had to survive tight games with Nevada and Wyoming, while earning a misleading three-touchdown win against San Jose State. Then last week, they beat an outmanned Oregon State team. Meanwhile, UNLV actually posted better per play numbers against Mountain West opponents than the Broncos. For a team that has historically been awful on defense, the Rebels finished with the second best per play defense in the conference. Last year's UNLV team was the best in nearly forty years. And this year's is probably the best in school history. The Rebels are on a mission and I think they win their first Mountain West title on Friday night. 

Miami -2 Ohio @ Detroit

Miami and Ohio are the two best teams in the MAC. The Redhawks and Bobcats both outgained their conference opponents by fantastic per play margins (+2.79 for Miami and +1.90 for Ohio). The Redhawks and Bobcats may also have the two best coaches in the MAC. Since 2021, the Miami and Ohio have both finished a MAC best 23-9 in league play (one game clear of third place Toledo). And this includes Ohio's disappointing 3-5 campaign in 2021 when Frank Solich retired in the summer prior to the start of the season. His longtime lieutenant, Tim Albin got off to a rough start losing seven of his first eight games as head coach. The Bobcats won two of four to close the year and build some momentum heading into 2022. Since then, the Bobcats won ten games in both 2022 and 2023 and with a win here or in their bowl game, would post an unprecedented third straight ten win season. A win in this game would also give Ohio their first MAC title since 1968. While Ohio has not won a conference title since Lyndon Johnson was president, Miami is seeking a second consecutive MAC title and their third in six seasons. Chuck Martin has been with the Redhawks for more than a decade and has quietly built Miami into one of the best programs in the MAC. As much as I respect Tim Albin and what he has done following Frank Solich at Ohio, the numbers Miami posted this season in MAC play are impossible to ignore. Plus, these teams already played once this season. While the final score shows a ten-point margin, keep in mind Miami outgained Ohio by more than two and a half yards per play and were actually up by 24 points with six minutes to go before two late Ohio touchdowns made the final score a bit misleading. Take the Redhawks laying this small number. 

Clemson +2.5 SMU @ Charlotte

If you go by the numbers, SMU has been the more dominant team in ACC play, outgaining conference foes by more than two yards per play (+2.17). Clemson was quite good, but only outgained their league opponents by 1.01 yards per play. Clemson did play a somewhat tougher conference schedule. The Tigers and Mustangs shared five common league opponents, but in their other games, Clemson faced NC State, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest, while SMU played Cal, Duke, and Boston College. Clemson also faced a tougher non-conference schedule where two thirds of their losses occurred (Georgia and South Carolina). SMU did not have a cakewalk non-con, but BYU and TCU are a notch below those two SEC schools. Clemson also has the better pedigree. The Tigers were ranked 14th in the preseason AP Poll, while the Mustangs were not ranked. They were not a complete afterthought, as they were in the others receiving votes category (technically 29th between Boise and Iowa State). I did some research on conference title matchups that feature a team ranked in the preseason AP Poll against a team that was not ranked in the preseason AP Poll. The teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll are 37-4 straight up in championship games against teams that were not ranked in the preseason AP Poll. Its hard to go against that trend. Finally, Clemson has title game experience. The Tigers have won eight ACC Championship Games under Dabo Swinney (2011, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022) in nine appearances (lost in 2009). SMU won the AAC Championship Game last season, but this is a different beast. The Mustangs are one win away from making the College Football Playoff (they may make it with a loss, but that is not a chance I would want to take were I an SMU fan). The pressure is all on the Mustangs. Clemson saw their playoff hopes dashed after losing to South Carolina only to have them rekindled thanks to another team in Orange a hundred miles to the north. Clemson is also familiar with Bank of America Stadium, having played in seven ACC Championship Games at that venue. The Mustangs are statistically superior, but all the intangibles and trends say we should back the Tigers.