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Overall: 54-43-1
UNLV +4 Boise State
Fresno State ended a potential electoral travesty in the Mountain West when they knocked off Colorado State two weeks ago. Had the Rams won, they would have finished unbeaten in the Mountain West and earned a spot in the title game opposite Boise State despite a poor statistical profile. No shade to the Rams, but the Broncos and Rebels are the two best teams in the conference and the winner is most likely headed to the College Football Playoff barring a massive Army win against Tulane. These two teams faced off a week before Halloween in Las Vegas and the Broncos eked out a five point victory. However, since that game, the Broncos appear to be leaking oil. They dominated San Diego State, but had to survive tight games with Nevada and Wyoming, while earning a misleading three-touchdown win against San Jose State. Then last week, they beat an outmanned Oregon State team. Meanwhile, UNLV actually posted better per play numbers against Mountain West opponents than the Broncos. For a team that has historically been awful on defense, the Rebels finished with the second best per play defense in the conference. Last year's UNLV team was the best in nearly forty years. And this year's is probably the best in school history. The Rebels are on a mission and I think they win their first Mountain West title on Friday night.
Miami -2 Ohio @ Detroit
Miami and Ohio are the two best teams in the MAC. The Redhawks and Bobcats both outgained their conference opponents by fantastic per play margins (+2.79 for Miami and +1.90 for Ohio). The Redhawks and Bobcats may also have the two best coaches in the MAC. Since 2021, the Miami and Ohio have both finished a MAC best 23-9 in league play (one game clear of third place Toledo). And this includes Ohio's disappointing 3-5 campaign in 2021 when Frank Solich retired in the summer prior to the start of the season. His longtime lieutenant, Tim Albin got off to a rough start losing seven of his first eight games as head coach. The Bobcats won two of four to close the year and build some momentum heading into 2022. Since then, the Bobcats won ten games in both 2022 and 2023 and with a win here or in their bowl game, would post an unprecedented third straight ten win season. A win in this game would also give Ohio their first MAC title since 1968. While Ohio has not won a conference title since Lyndon Johnson was president, Miami is seeking a second consecutive MAC title and their third in six seasons. Chuck Martin has been with the Redhawks for more than a decade and has quietly built Miami into one of the best programs in the MAC. As much as I respect Tim Albin and what he has done following Frank Solich at Ohio, the numbers Miami posted this season in MAC play are impossible to ignore. Plus, these teams already played once this season. While the final score shows a ten-point margin, keep in mind Miami outgained Ohio by more than two and a half yards per play and were actually up by 24 points with six minutes to go before two late Ohio touchdowns made the final score a bit misleading. Take the Redhawks laying this small number.
Clemson +2.5 SMU @ Charlotte
If you go by the numbers, SMU has been the more dominant team in ACC play, outgaining conference foes by more than two yards per play (+2.17). Clemson was quite good, but only outgained their league opponents by 1.01 yards per play. Clemson did play a somewhat tougher conference schedule. The Tigers and Mustangs shared five common league opponents, but in their other games, Clemson faced NC State, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest, while SMU played Cal, Duke, and Boston College. Clemson also faced a tougher non-conference schedule where two thirds of their losses occurred (Georgia and South Carolina). SMU did not have a cakewalk non-con, but BYU and TCU are a notch below those two SEC schools. Clemson also has the better pedigree. The Tigers were ranked 14th in the preseason AP Poll, while the Mustangs were not ranked. They were not a complete afterthought, as they were in the others receiving votes category (technically 29th between Boise and Iowa State). I did some research on conference title matchups that feature a team ranked in the preseason AP Poll against a team that was not ranked in the preseason AP Poll. The teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll are 37-4 straight up in championship games against teams that were not ranked in the preseason AP Poll. Its hard to go against that trend. Finally, Clemson has title game experience. The Tigers have won eight ACC Championship Games under Dabo Swinney (2011, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022) in nine appearances (lost in 2009). SMU won the AAC Championship Game last season, but this is a different beast. The Mustangs are one win away from making the College Football Playoff (they may make it with a loss, but that is not a chance I would want to take were I an SMU fan). The pressure is all on the Mustangs. Clemson saw their playoff hopes dashed after losing to South Carolina only to have them rekindled thanks to another team in Orange a hundred miles to the north. Clemson is also familiar with Bank of America Stadium, having played in seven ACC Championship Games at that venue. The Mustangs are statistically superior, but all the intangibles and trends say we should back the Tigers.
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