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Overall: 51-39-1
Miami (Ohio) +2 Bowling Green
The winner of this clash between the Redhawks and Falcons will clinch a berth in the MAC Championship Game. And in an interesting turn of events, in the first season sans divisions, the MAC Championship Game will be an all-former-East division affair (Buffalo and Ohio are the other teams with a shot at getting in). I think that is interesting because the MAC West has won twelve of the past eighteen MAC Championship Games. But I digress. Miami is gunning for their second consecutive MAC title and third in the past six seasons. The Redhawks finished 1-3 in the non-con with three losses to power conference teams (Cincinnati, Northwestern, and Notre Dame). They also narrowly escaped future conference mate Massachusetts in overtime. However, once conference play began, the Redhawks played like an historically great MAC team. They have outgained their conference opponents by nearly three yards per play (6.81 to 4.02) posting the top per play offense and defense in the MAC. They did drop their conference opener to Toledo, but have won their past six games by an average of nearly twenty points per game. The Redhawks have been great as a road underdog in MAC play under head coach Chuck Martin. They are 16-10 ATS as a in the role with eleven outright victories. The Redhawks have also excelled against Bowling Green under Martin, posting a 5-2 straight up and ATS record against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Falcons have shown marked improvement under head coach Scott Loeffler. In his first three seasons, Bowling Green was just 4-17 against MAC foes. Over the past three seasons, they are 16-7. Their esteem has improved in the betting market as well. In Loeffler's first three seasons, the Falcons were home favorites on just two occasions (1-1 ATS). Over the past three seasons, they have been favored at home seven times. However, they are just 2-5 ATS in those games, including 1-3 ATS this season. The stats favor the Redhawks. The trends and series history favor the Redhawks. And for good measure, Bowling Green tight end, and deserving Mackey Award winner, Harold Fannin Jr. is unlikely to play. The Redhawks should be favored in this spot, so back them catching a couple points.
Wisconsin -2.5 Minnesota
On a Saturday with massive upsets, we nearly saw another in the Big 10. The Golden Gophers stormed out to an early lead against Penn State, weathered a Nittany Lion comeback, and were in position to take the lead late, but opted for a short field goal and were not able to get the ball back as Penn State ran out the clock. How much does Minnesota have in the tank as they travel to Madison seeking to take back Paul Bunyan's Axe? While the Gophers already have six wins, Wisconsin has dropped four in a row and needs another victory to continue their bowl streak (last missed a bowl in 2001). The Badgers have dropped three home games for the third consecutive season. However, all three of the losses in 2024 have come to teams currently ranked in the top fifteen of the AP Poll (Alabama, Oregon, and Penn State). The Badgers have the better Big 10 statistical profile, having outgained league opponents by about half a yard per play (5.84 to 5.38) while Minnesota is actually underwater against Big 10 opponents (5.13 to 5.36). The Badgers are the more desperate team, are playing at home, and I think Minnesota shot their proverbial load last week. Back the Badgers as a slight home favorite.
Vanderbilt +10.5 Tennessee
The Diego Pavia money train makes it final regular season stop in Nashville. Most college football observers, and even the most optimistic Vanderbilt fans probably thought Clark Lea would be fired by this point in the season. The Commodores faced a ridiculous SEC schedule along with Virginia Tech in the non-con. But the Commodores transplanted Pavia, tight end and leading receiver Eli Stowers, and some of the coaching staff from New Mexico State, embraced a pseudo triple option philosophy and made life hell on all their SEC opponents. The Commodores are an incredible 6-0 ATS as a double digit underdog this season and have won three of those games outright. Now they have a chance to wreck the College Football Playoff dreams of their in-state rival. Tennessee has averaged over 65 points per game against FCS and Group of Five teams in 2024, but against power conference opponents, they have struggled to score. In their eight games against power conference foes, they have averaged just under 27 points per game, and that includes a 51-point outburst against NC State in the non-con. In SEC play, the Vols are averaging under 24 points per game and have scored more than thirty points just once (against the worst team in the conference). Even with a normal pace, Tennessee would probably struggle to get to thirty against Vanderbilt, but with the Commodores run-heavy attack that operates at a snail's pace, they are probably only getting to the mid-twenties. Seventeen points should be enough for Vandy to cover this number and continue their perfect streak as a double digit underdog.
Baylor +1.5 Kansas
The two hottest teams in the Big 12 face off in Waco with more than you might think on the line. Kansas needs a win to get to bowl eligibility, something that was unfathomable a month ago. Meanwhile, Baylor still has a snowball's chance at getting to the Big 12 Championship Game (remember their non-conference loss to Utah does not count in the league standings). The Bears have won five in a row after a 2-4 start and had they not given up the Hail Mary to Colorado back in September, would be in much better shape in regards to a Big 12 Championship Game berth. I think this is the peak of the market for Kansas. The Jayhawks have beaten three consecutive ranked teams (Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado) with two of the wins coming by margin at home. However, in their road trip to BYU, the Jayhawks were actually outgained by more than 100 yards and needed a fluke pooch punt turnover to score the decisive touchdown. Baylor is 9-0 against Kansas in Waco since the formation of the Big 12, winning the past seven at home by double digits. I really wanted to see Kansas get to a bowl, but the wrong team is favored here.
Cal +13.5 SMU
As far as maiden voyages in conferences go, you couldn't ask for much more if you are an SMU fan. The Mustangs are 7-0 in the ACC and have clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game. NC State by contrast is still waiting on an ACC Championship Game berth. But enough Wolfpack strays. SMU has actually won sixteen straight regular season conference games across two leagues. They finished with a perfect league record last year in their final season as a member of the AAC and last lost in their penultimate conference game in 2022 (a road trip to Tulane). Things were dicey in September, as SMU looked bad in a Week Zero road trip to Nevada and then lost at home to what was expected to be a poor BYU team. The Cougars ended up being better than expected and the Mustangs navigated the transition from veteran quarterback Preston Stone (coming off an injury) to youngster Kevin Jennings with aplomb. Meanwhile, Cal has struggled somewhat in their new conference. The Bears are just 2-5 in ACC play with all five losses coming by eight points or less, including three by a combined four points. Despite the change in conference affiliation, Cal has continued their incredibly stratified ATS performance. Under Justin Wilcox, in regular season games, they are 32-17 ATS as an underdog (3-1 ATS in 2024) and 13-18-1 ATS as a favorite (3-3 ATS in 2024). The Bears have been an ATM catching points under Wilcox and I think SMU may be looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game. As I mentioned earlier, they have already clinched a spot and will likely need to win the conference to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff regardless of what happens here. In addition, the Mustangs are 0-2 this season as a double digit home favorite, losing to BYU and playing a tight game with Boston College two weeks ago. Cal is much better than their record and will give SMU all they can handle. Finally, if you are worried about how Cal will play off their emotional rivalry with Stanford, don't be. Under Wilcox, the Bears are 3-3 ATS in regular season games immediately following their bout with Stanford, but 5-1 ATS with three outright wins as an underdog.
NC State +3 North Carolina
NC State has once again failed to meet somewhat lofty preseason expectations, and as someone holding an under 8.5 regular season wins ticket on the Wolfpack, I couldn't be happier. Despite the setback, I think head coach Dave Doeren may be playing some real three-dimensional chess. Allow me to explain. The fanbase is down on Doeren. The Wolfpack may miss a bowl for the first time since 2019. However, if you look under the hood, this NC State team may be primed for a bounce back in 2025. Grayson McCall was initially set to be the starting quarterback. Injuries have derailed his career since his ascendence in 2020 and he was ultimately forced to retire after suffering a brutal hit against Wake Forest. In his absence, freshman CJ Bailey has taken the reigns of the offense. While there have been some growing pains, assuming the Wolfpack can keep Bailey, this experience will likely pay dividends in 2025 and beyond. Even starting a freshman quarterback, NC State ranks fourth in the ACC in yards per play in conference play. They have also outgained their conference opponents on a per play basis (6.33 to 5.89) despite a 2-5 league record. And while getting to a bowl is not guaranteed, it is certainly a possibility as they go up against their erratic rivals from Chapel Hill. Much like the Democrats did to Joe Biden after his disastrous debate performance, the Tar Heels have pushed Mack Brown aside after a bloodletting at Boston College. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Tar Heels and clued decision makers in that maybe retaining a septuagenarian head coach with a 16-15 conference record since the Covid season, despite having two NFL quarterbacks on the roster may not be in the best long term interests of the program. And without those two NFL quarterbacks (Sam Howell and Drake Maye), the Tar Heels have been terrible as a home favorite in Brown's second stint. They are 0-3 ATS in the role. Plus, NC State has played well in this rivalry under Doeren, posting a 7-4 mark against the Tar Heels, including a 4-1 record in Chapel Hill despite being underdogs in four of the five trips. What victory by North Carolina has impressed you this year? Charlotte? Florida State? NC Central? Virginia? Wake Forest? Back the Pack catching three.
Auburn +11.5 Alabama
It really pains me to back Auburn in this spot as the Tigers have not won or covered in Tuscaloosa since 2010, when they had a generational talent playing quarterback. However, this is not Nick Saban's Alabama. I'm not saying Kalen DeBoer is not a good coach (he led Washington to the title game last year), but the Tide are not their usual dominant selves. In fact, they have not been for the past couple of years. Between 2008, when Saban got things rolling, and their last national title in 2020, Alabama won 95 regular season SEC games. Only fifteen of those wins were decided by one possession. Since 2021, Alabama has won 25 regular season SEC games (21 under Saban and four under DeBoer). Eleven of those wins have come by one possession (nine under Saban and two under DeBoer). The margins have tightened in the SEC and in the nation at large. Auburn is better than their record, having outgained SEC foes on a per play basis by a better margin than Alabama. The Tigers will probably do something really dumb to blow the game as they have for a majority of the year, but they should not be catching double digits.
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