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Overall: 43-33-1
Wyoming +10 Colorado State
In my opinion, the Mountain West was a bit myopic when they announced a scheduling agreement with the surviving members of the Pac-12 (Oregon State and Washington State) and reduced their number of conference games from eight to seven. Contracting the conference season by 12.5% has resulted in a realistic scenario where we will be denied a Boise State/UNLV rematch in the Mountain West Championship Game. No shade to Colorado State, but the Broncos and Rebels are the two best teams in the league. However, they have already faced off this season, with the Broncos winning in Sin City a few weeks ago. Neither the Broncos nor the Rebels play the Rams in the regular season, so if Colorado State wins out to finish 7-0 in league play, they will qualify for the conference title game. The Rams are likely to be favored in their final three games (Wyoming, Fresno State, and Utah State), so this is not a pipe dream. Anyway, the first leg of that Mountain West parlay comes Friday night in the Border War, with the winner walking away with the Bronze Boot. Both teams struggled early in the 2024 season, but have turned things around. Colorado State began the year 1-2, but have won five of six and four in a row despite the absence of star receiver Tory Horton, who injured his knee a month ago and is out for the remainder of the season. Wyoming began the season 0-4 under first year head coach Jay Sawvel, and while they won just two of their next five games, they have covered as an underdog in four consecutive games, with two coming away from Laramie. At 2-7, Wyoming can't get to a bowl game, so I expect them to be motivated to ruin their rivals season. Plus, Wyoming has dominated this series of late, winning seven of the past ten meetings. They have been underdogs (as they are here) in six of those ten games, and have posted an ATS record of 5-1 with four outright wins. I expect a close game in Fort Collins on Friday.
UTSA +2 North Texas
North Texas gave a master class in how to lose (and not cover) a football game last week. The Mean Green were stopped on downs inside the Army five, threw two interceptions in the endzone, and were stopped on downs another time for good measure. All together, North Texas scored three points on three drives that began with a first and goal and four total trips inside the red zone. The Mean Green are in real danger of squandering a bowl bid after a 5-1 start (although they should be significant favorites against Temple in the regular season finale). Meanwhile, UTSA needs two wins in their final two games to clinch a fifth consecutive bowl game under head coach Jeff Traylor. The Roadrunners won't live up to their preseason expectations, but winning six games would still be an accomplishment, especially after a 2-4 start. Outside of last week's game against Army, North Texas has scored at least 35 points against every non-power conference team they have faced, so they should be able to move the ball against UTSA. However, the Roadrunners run defense is strong, so North Texas will probably be in a few more third and longs than they are accustomed to. And the North Texas defense is still one of the worst in the nation. The Mean Green held Army to 14 points last week, but there were only seven drives by the Black Knights in that game and Army's final drive ran out the clock. The North Texas defense has been especially bad on the road, allowing over 41 points per game in ten contests since Eric Morris became head coach. Couple that with how good UTSA has been as a home underdog under Traylor (5-1 ATS with four outright wins), and you have to back the Roadrunners in this spot.
Utah +11 Colorado
After a 4-0 start to their first season in the Big 12, Utah has fallen on hard times. The Utes have dropped five in a row, including a gut-wrenching loss to their unbeaten arch rivals in the Holy War last week. The offense has been among the worst of any power conference team. In Big 12 play, the Utes are averaging just north of five yards per play and just under 16 points per game. The defense has remained strong though, allowing just over five yards per play and 20 points per game. Five of their six conference games have been decided by one possession (1-4 record) so the Utes have been competitive in most games. Turnovers have also been a problem, with the Utes posting a -8 turnover margin in their six Big 12 games. Can they rebound from that tough loss as they travel to face a Colorado team that has a shot at returning to the Big 12 Championship Game for the first time in nearly 20 years? Granted, they were not in the Big 12 for a majority of that time, but still, this has been quite the turnaround for Coach Prime. The Buffaloes have won six of seven with the past three victories all coming by double digits. Apparently having a couple future top ten draft picks is a good way to build your team. How well can Colorado transition to from the role of (Travis) hunter to hunted? After last season's showing, not much was expected of the Buffaloes in their second season under Coach Prime. Now Colorado is laying ten points against the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 (and a team that was highly ranked in the preseason AP Poll). Colorado is 0-2 ATS as a double digit home favorite under Deion, with both instances coming last season. Colorado outlasted Colorado State in double overtime and blew a huge lead to Stanford. They have not been trusted to lay a big number since. Utah has dominated this series which became an annual occurrence when both teams joined the Pac-12 in 2011. The Utes are 11-2 straight up, including 5-1 in Boulder with their lone loss coming in 2016 against a Colorado team that played in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Utes covered as nine point underdogs. I expect a similar result here. Utah probably does not have enough on offense to win this game outright, but their defense should keep it within one score.
Rutgers +6 Maryland
This is a must win game for Maryland if the Terrapins have designs on qualifying for a fourth consecutive bowl game. Maryland is 4-5 and needs to win two if its final three games to get to six wins. Their regular season finale is at Penn State, a team they are 1-9 against since James Franklin became head coach (seven of last nine losses by an average of more than 37 points per game). Go ahead and chalk that one in the 'L' column. So Maryland must beat Rutgers and then Iowa at home next week to have a shot at the postseason. Rutgers also needs one additional win to attain bowl eligibility for the second consecutive season, so both squads should be properly motivated here. But how can a Maryland team that has lost four of five, with their lone victory in that span coming by one point against jet lagged Southern Cal, be laying nearly a touchdown? These team have both been pretty bad in Big 10 play, being outgained by more than a yard per play by their conference opponents. Rutgers has at least had more instances of competency, beating Washington and Minnesota in conference play and handling Virginia Tech on the road in the non-con. Maryland has had one good data point since the September, so I recommend you back the Scarlet Knights catching the points.
San Jose State +13.5 Boise State
I expected 2024 to be a rebuilding year for San Jose State. The Spartans lost a good head coach when Brent Brennan took the Arizona job in the offseason. They replaced him with Ken Niumatalolo, a coach that struggled over his final few years at Navy. Niumatalolo posted four losing seasons over his final five years at the Naval Academy, so I think being skeptical of his hire was warranted. However, he has proven the doubters wrong, clinching a third consecutive bowl bid for the Spartans. Can they shake up the Mountain West and college football playoff races by upsetting league overlord Boise State? I think they have a shot. San Jose State has a solid run defense, allowing under four yards per carry on the season. I expect Ashton Jeanty to still cross the century mark, as he has in every game this season, but they will be hard earned yards. Boise State is four wins away from a trip to the college football playoff, so the pressure in this game is all on one sideline. San Jose State is just 1-4 against the Broncos since joining the Mountain West, but they are 4-1 ATS, covering each of the past four meetings, including last season in Boise when they blew a large halftime lead. Take the Spartans to keep this one close, and don't be shocked if the college football playoff rankings are shuffled significantly after this game.
Tennessee +10 Georgia
I understand why this spread is above ten points. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is in concussion protocol and may not play. Even when he has played, the Tennessee offense has struggled. Tennessee is 0-3 against Georgia under Josh Heupel, losing by an average of 22 points per game. And the Bulldogs are probably pissed after their latest showing (or no-show) against Ole Miss. I understand why the spread is this high, but that doesn't mean I agree with it. This Tennessee defense is elite. The Vols have not allowed more than 19 points in any game this season. If we assume Tennessee has their worst defensive effort of the season in Athens, how many points are they allowing? The over/under on this game (48 points) implies a 29-19 Georgia win. I don't think the Bulldogs are scoring close to 30 points. This is not the same Georgia team that ran roughshod through the SEC in 2021, 2022, and 2023. They dominated Texas in Austin, but they escaped a bad Kentucky team by a single point, allowed 31 points at home to the worst team in the SEC (Mississippi State), and were life and death with Florida in the Cocktail Party in the second half after Florida was forced to turn to a quarterback that transferred from Yale. Maybe Athens magic gives the Bulldogs a boost and they force some turnovers and rout Tennessee. I think the more likely result is a rock fight reminiscent of an SEC conference game from the 1990's. In a low-scoring affair, you have to back the team catching double digits.
New Mexico +12 Washington State
Perhaps one good thing about the expanded college football playoff is the committee does seem to value the performance of non-power conference teams. In fact, when it comes to Washington State, I would argue the committee is holding the Cougars in too high esteem. In the old days when only the top four teams qualified for the college football playoff, undefeated Group of Five teams like UCF never rose higher than 12th (2017) or 8th (2018). Meanwhile, Washington State is currently 18th despite a middling resume. The Cougars have beaten two mid-level power conference teams (Texas Tech and Washington) at home and at a neutral site. Their next best wins have come against San Jose State and Fresno State by two points and eight points respectively. They also lost by three touchdowns on the road to the best team on their schedule (Boise State). And that performance against the Broncos is one of the reasons I believe they will struggle to cover this large number. The Cougars could not stop Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty in their game against the Broncos and they have bene pretty poor at stopping the run all season. Against a weak schedule, their nine opponents have averaged over five yards per carry. Utah State averaged nearly seven yards per carry against them last week! New Mexico does not have an Ashton Jeanty on their roster, but they do have a quarterback and running back combo (Devon Dampier and Eli Sanders) that have combined for more than 1700 yards on the ground at more than seven yards per carry. The Lobos and Cougars should both have success running the ball (New Mexico's defense can't defense the run or the pass), but that constant running will keep the clock moving. New Mexico has an outside shot at bowl eligibility, needing to sweep their final two games to get to six wins in Bronco Mendenhall's first season. They should be motivated against a ranked team at home. This is the first ranked team to visit Albuquerque since Boise State in 2018. Hopefully this result is a little better, but even if Mew Mexico is down multiple scores in the fourth, the back door should be wide open for a Lobo cover.
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