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Overall: 46-37-1
Connecticut +10.5 Syracuse
Syracuse is 6-3 against FBS competition (7-3 overall) in head coach Fran Brown's first season. However, in those nine games, the Orange have outscored their FBS opponents by just eight total points. In other words, Syracuse has been a bit fortunate to win six of their nine games versus FBS teams. The Orange are 5-2 in one-possession games, with two of the victories coming in overtime. Not only are the Orange not quite as good as their record would indicate, but the Huskies also present a bad matchup for Syracuse. Connecticut is a run-oriented team and Syracuse does not play good run defense. The Orange allow over five yards per carry (111th nationally), which is not a good recipe when laying double digits. The Huskies should be able to move the ball on the ground and keep the clock running, which is a friend to underdogs everywhere. Finally, this is a rough spot for Syracuse in terms of the schedule. They flew across the country to face Cal last week, and they host Miami next week. The Hurricanes will be looking to wrap up a spot in the ACC Championship Game, so Syracuse should be motivated to ruin their season. How focused will Syracuse be for a non-conference game against a lesser team, although one that is no longer a laughing stock under Jim Mora? Take the Huskies to keep this one close.
Illinois -1 Rutgers
Don't look now, but the Illini could finish with nine regular season wins for the first time since 2007 (when they participated in the Rose Bowl). If they are fortunate enough to win out and win their bowl game, they would have ten wins for the first time since their Big 10 championship team circa 2001. The Illini have proven they are not in the elite class of the Big 10, having scored a combined sixteen points in losses at Penn State and Oregon. However, they have been more than competitive against the mid-level teams on their schedule, beating Kansas and Michigan at home, as well as Nebraska on the road. Meanwhile, after two consecutive victories following four straight losses, Rutgers has a shot at winning eight regular season games for the first time ever as a member of the Big 10. That record has mostly been the result of an easy schedule, as the Scarlet Knights have avoided the top four teams in the Big 10 (Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State). Rutgers did post a somewhat impressive non-conference victory against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies have not lived up to their darkhorse preseason hype. Illinois has posted better statistics, both scoring and per play margins, while playing the tougher schedule, so I'll back the Illini in a spot where you basically need to pick the outright winner.
Louisiana-Monroe +3 Arkansas State
The Arkansas State Red Wolves will be playing in a bowl game for the second consecutive season. The Red Wolves played in nine consecutive bowls beginning in 2011, but won just nine total games between 2020 and 2022. While they have six wins, they have been outscored by nearly 100 points on the season. Five of their wins have come by three, four, two, three, and seven points. They did beat a bad Southern Miss team by sixteen, but most of their wins have been close. A few different bounces here or there and Arkansas State could be looking at a 3-9 season. Their six wins have mostly come against the dregs of the Sun Belt, Tulsa, and an FCS team. They did squeak by South Alabama at home, but their other five victories have come against teams with losing records. Now they face a Louisiana-Monroe team that is desperate for one additional victory. The Warhawks have dropped four games in a row to fall to 5-5 on the season. While they have dropped four in a row, each of those losses has come against a team that will be playing in the postseason (and Auburn). Despite the road trip, Arkansas State represents a step down in class for the Warhawks. Louisiana-Monroe has only played in one bowl game in school history, so they should be motivated to notch their sixth win. They also have better per play and scoring margin numbers than Arkansas State despite facing a tougher schedule. The wrong team is favored here. Take the Warhawks to cover and don't be shocked if they attain bowl eligibility.
Coastal Carolina -2.5 Georgia Southern
The Clay Helton era in Statesboro appears to be on the verge of producing a third consecutive 6-7 season. For a program with a grand tradition in the FCS, one has to wonder if that is enough for him to maintain employment with the Eagles. There have been some highs (the win at Nebraska in his second game), but also plenty of lows (a 10-12 Sun Belt record for one). A few weeks ago, the Eagles were sitting pretty in the Sun Belt East after knocking off James Madison to move to 3-0 in league play. However, since that win, they have been blown out by Old Dominion, staged a miraculous comeback at South Alabama, and lost at home to a bad Troy team. The 3-0 start seems like a mirage, with one of the wins coming against an awful Georgia State team and the other coming in comeback fashion against Marshall. If one play in either the Marshall or South Alabama comebacks is switched (or if the Eagles drop both), they are an also ran that is struggling to clinch a bowl berth and this spread is probably closer to a touchdown. Speaking of bowl berths, Coastal still needs one more win to get back to a bowl for the fifth consecutive year, so they should be motivated to get it on senior day in Conway. The Chanticleers are the better team, are playing at home, and laying less than a field goal.
Louisiana Tech +22 Arkansas
Louisiana Tech pulled off one of the more under the radar upsets of the year last week when they went on the road and held Western Kentucky to seven points. The Hilltoppers had not been held to single digits against a Group of Five opponent since 2020. The victory was doubly impressive as it came on the heels of a heartbreaking loss to Jacksonville State where the Bulldogs allowed a Hail Mary to be completed and lost to the Gamecocks in overtime. The win may not have saved Sonny Cumbie's job, but it showed the Bulldogs are still playing hard for the embattled third year coach. Louisiana Tech has one of the best defenses in Conference USA. The Bulldogs are allowing under five yards per play to conference opponents and if we ignore the Hail Mary against Jacksonville State, have not allowed more than 31 points to any opponent in regulation. If the Bulldogs can hold Arkansas to around thirty points, they should be able to score enough to cover this large number. And it is no sure thing that Arkansas gets to thirty. The Razorbacks have one of the worst offensive lines at the power conference level, having allowed 67 tackles for loss on the season (110th nationally). They also have a volatile and mistake prone quarterback. Taylen Green is averaging over eight yards per pass, but he has also thrown eight interceptions on the season and the team has collectively fumbled 23 times (most in the nation). Arkansas needs this game to get to a bowl, but between a home game with Texas and a road trip to Missouri, I think the Razorbacks may take this one for granted. The Bulldogs have not lost a game by more than ten points this season and I expect that trend to continue.
Utah +7.5 Iowa State
If you played the schedule game back in July or August, you probably marked this game on your Big 12 calendar. Utah played in four of the final six Pac-12 Championship Games (four of the past five non-Covid games) and seemed poised to contend in the Big 12 with the return of quarterback Cam Rising. Iowa State was off a nice rebound season and seemed to have their next star quarterback. So this late-season contest certainly seemed to matter to the conference race. And for one team, it will. Despite two losses in their past three games, the Cyclones are still alive their second Big 12 Championship Game berth. However, 2024 has been a lost season for Utah. The Utes have dropped six consecutive games and stand 1-6 in Big 12 play. Their defense is still among the best in the Big 12, but Cam Rising returned as a shell of his former self before injuries ended his season. His replacements have been less than stellar and Utah has failed to score more than 24 points in any Big 12 game. While Iowa State has the better record and still has an outside shot at getting to the College Football Playoff, their defense has been leaking oil over the past few weeks. In their past four games, the Cyclones have allowed over 1000 yards rushing at nearly six and a half yards per clip! That is not the profile of a defense you want to lay points with on the road in conference play. Utah still has an outside shot at bowl eligibility, and despite not covering last week at Colorado, there did not appear to be any quit in their performance. Back the Utes catching more than a touchdown in Salt Lake City.
Air Force +3.5 Nevada
A few weeks ago, Air Force fans were probably beginning to get 2013 vibes from this team. That season, Troy Calhoun's seventh in charge at the academy, the Falcons finished 2-10 (0-8 in the Mountain West) with seven of the losses coming by double digits. It ended up being just a blip, as the Falcons won ten games the next season and have played in seven bowl games since that reset season. Anyway, two weeks ago, Air Force was 1-7, with a victory over Merrimack and seven consecutive losses, with six of the losses coming by double digits. But the Falcons seem to have found their form over the past two weeks. They have rushed for over 600 yards in victories against Fresno State and Oregon State and scored 64 total points after averaging under thirteen points per game in their first seven contests against FBS opponents. Now they face a Nevada team, that are improved under first year head coach Jeff Choate, but struggle defending the run. The Wolfpack are 104th nationally in yards per rush allowed on defense. The Air Force run defense is bad as well, so I expect a lot of positive carries and a running clock. With Falcons catching the hook and playing improved ball, they are the play.
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