Last week we looked at how AAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.
Once again, here are the 2024 AAC standings.
And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.
Finally, AAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.
Florida Atlantic was the only AAC team that saw their actual record differ significantly from their APR, and we went over some reasons for that last week.
Group of Five Championship Participants
In their first season as a member of the AAC, Army ran roughshod over the conference, finishing unbeaten in league play (almost) and winning their first ever conference title. With Army's appearance in the AAC Championship Game, that means just two AAC members have yet to play in a conference title game as an FBS program. That got me to thinking about the entirety of the Group of Five and which teams have yet to play in a conference title game. Let's roll through them alphabetically by conference.
Charlotte and South Florida have yet to play in a conference title game. Charlotte has finished bowl eligible just once in their history and that season the 49ers were still two games behind eventual league champ Florida Atlantic in Conference USA. South Florida was in contention for the AAC crown for three straight seasons, but finished a game behind Temple in 2015, lost the tiebreaker to Temple in 2016, and finished two games behind unbeaten UCF in 2017.
Conference USA has three FBS newcomers that were either very bad in their FBS maiden voyage (Kennesaw State) or will be playing their first season of FBS ball in 2025 (Delaware and Missouri State). Florida International finished a game behind Middle Tennessee State in 2018 while winning a school record nine games. In the division-less Conference USA of 2024, Sam Houston finished tied for second with Western Kentucky, but lost the head to head matchup with the Hilltoppers. UTEP had the inside track to the inaugural Conference USA Championship Game in 2005, but dropped their final two regular season games to finish one game behind Tulsa.
The MAC instituted a conference championship game in 1997 and Eastern Michigan is the only team that has been a member since that season that has yet to play in it. Prior to Chris Creighton's arrival, the Eagles oscillated between bad and horrendous, but finished tied with Toledo for the division crown in 2022. Massachusetts will rejoin the MAC in 2025 and was a MAC member for four seasons (2012-2015), but never finished with more than three league wins.
Nevada, along with Colorado State and New Mexico, are the only three current Mountain West teams that have never played in the league's title game. However, the Rams and Lobos played in the short lived WAC Championship Game, facing off against each other in the 1997 edition).
The Sun Belt has a relatively new title game (first contested in 2018) and several teams that have been in FBS for only a decade or so which explains why it has the most current members that have never played in a conference title games. Arkansas State lost the tiebreaker to Louisiana-Lafayette in 2018. Georgia Southern finished a game behind Appalachian State in 2018 and a game behind Marshall in 2024. Georgia State finished a game behind Appalachian State in 2021. James Madison technically won the Sun Belt East in both 2022 and 2023, but were ineligible for the conference crown due to transitioning from FCS. Louisiana-Monroe's best finish since the Sun Belt instituted the conference title game was in 2018, when they went 4-4 and were a game behind both Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State. Old Dominion lost the tiebreaker to Western Kentucky in the 2016 Conference USA East division. South Alabama lost the tiebreaker to Troy when both finished 7-1 in 2022. And finally, Texas State finished with a winning Sun Belt record in 2024 for just the second time since joining the conference in 2013.
While they have not played in a conference for a few years and are mostly a national afterthought, I would be remiss if I left out Connecticut. To be fair, they have played in two bowls in three seasons under Jim Mora Jr. However, as members of the AAC, they did not finish with a winning conference record in any season, topping out at 4-4 in 2015.
Which teams are most likely to play in their first conference title game in 2025? I would direct your attention to the Sun Belt. Its a strict numbers play as eight teams in the league have yet to appear in a conference title game. I think two teams from that conference have a great shot at moving off of this list in early December. Put me down for a James Madison/Texas State title game.
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