Here are the 2024 Big 12 standings.
So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Big 12 team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.
College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2024 season, which teams in the Big 12 met this threshold? Here are Big 12 teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.
Texas Tech and Iowa State significantly exceeded their expected record based on YPP while UCF underachieved (by an historic margin). Texas Tech was 5-1 in one-score Big 12 games, with all but one of their league wins coming by a touchdown or less. Iowa State was solid in close Big 12 games (3-1 record), but was especially fortunate in their fourth down defense. Big 12 opponents converted just five of thirteen fourth down opportunities, gifting the Cyclones with eight hidden turnovers. Meanwhile, UCF undershot their expected YPP winning percentage by the third largest margin of any power conference team I have tracked (since 2005). Only Nebraska (2021) and Illinois (2006) underachieved more. How did UCF accomplish this feat? They didn't do the little things. They were 1-3 in one-score conference games, had a -8 turnover margin in Big 12 play, struggled making field goals (just four of ten in conference play), while their Big 12 foes could not miss (13 of 15). In addition, their defense could not get off the field on fourth down, permitting conversions on eleven of fifteen fourth down attempts in Big 12 play. And finally, they allowed five non-offensive touchdowns in Big 12 play while scoring just one. Those non-offensive touchdowns were decisive in losses to Arizona State (allowed a punt block and interception touchdown) and Utah (threw two pick sixes). It truly takes a village.
Underwater Conference Championship Game Participants
I live in South Carolina, so I cannot place any sports bets in the state. However. about two hours away across the northern border, there is a native person's casino I visit on occasion. I made the trek in early December and bet on Clemson in the ACC Championship Game (a result that was never in doubt). However, based on how things played out on Championship Saturday, I could have made another bet and not been nearly as stressed that evening. Arizona State closed as a slight favorite against Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game and dominated the Cyclones en route to their first conference title in nearly 30 years. I didn't see a big advantage for either side in the title game, but I should have looked closer.
Iowa State became just the 17th team to qualify for a power conference championship game while posting a negative (underwater) YPP margin. Those 17 teams have fared quite poorly in their respective title games.
Their straight up record is 2-15, with one of those victories coming in a battle of two teams that entered with negative YPP margins (the ACC in 2008 was dead ass mid as the kids might say). Ignoring that 2008 ACC Championship Game, underwater championship game participants are 1-14 straight up and only slightly better at 2-12-1 ATS. My alma mater is the only underwater team outside of that 2008 game to win a conference championship and that was nearly two decades ago. So if the opportunity presents itself again in 2025 or beyond, I will be gassing up the Fiesta and heading north to bet against an underwater power conference championship game participant.
So Iowa State was almost destined to lose the 2024 Big 12 Championship Game. Using those other teams that were underwater as a guide, what can we expect from Iowa State in 2025?
Unfortunately, Cyclones fans can probably plan weddings and bar mitzvahs for the first weekend in December. Historically, their league record will probably not be as good in 2025. 11 of the 16 underwater teams saw their record decline (69%), three held steady (19%), and only two improved (13%). Collectively, the teams lost about .241 points of winning percentage in conference play which would equate to about two additional league losses for Iowa State.
