2024 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: MAC

Last week we looked at how MAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2024 MAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, MAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

No MAC teams saw their actual record differ significantly from their APR, so we'll move on to more interesting topics. 

Go (Mountain) West, Young Man

Northern Illinois is not what you would call an ancestral MAC team. The Huskies were members of the league in the late 70s and early 80s, but left to join the Independent circuit in 1986. They tried that for seven years before joining the Big West in 1993. Their dalliance with the doomed football league did not last long, as they were an Independent once again in 1996 before rejoining the MAC in 1997. Since rejoining the league, they have arguably been the standard bearer for the MAC, posting the most conference title game appearances (9) and wins (tied with Marshall at 5). 2025 will mark the Huskies' final season (for now) in the MAC as they will be joining a revamped Mountain West in 2026. The Mountain West is losing five of its current members (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State) as the Pac-12 seeks ro resurrect itself. That leaves seven current Mountain West members (Air Force, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, and Wyoming) plus UTEP who will also be joining in 2026. How much of a history does Northern Illinois have with these other eight teams? Not a lot. They have faced five of them (Nevada, San Jose State, UNLV, UTEP, and Wyoming) in eleven total games. The table below lists their history with their future conference mates. Previous conference games have an asterisk.

The Huskies have been reasonably successful against teams they will soon share a conference with, but the majority of that success has come against UNLV (5-0) and the Huskies have only played three games game against their future conference foes in the past decade. Northern Illinois will stick out in their new conference, although they are closer to mountains that I initially believed (roughly 210 miles from the Shawnee National Forest). They don't have a lot of history with these teams and they will see their frequent flyer mileage increase. However, if the Huskies harbor ambitions of competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff, a move to the Mountain West may prove to be beneficial.