College Football Plays
Over/Under Win Totals
I made 49 college football win total plays (four more than last year). They are listed below, broken down by conference.
AAC Plays
East Carolina under 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)
The Pirates won four of their final five regular season games after firing Mike Houston in 2024. The wins were good, but the competition was not great. I think the Pirates come back to earth, especially with two power conference teams (BYU and NC State) on the non-conference schedule.
Florida Atlantic over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $50)
I like hire of Zach Kittley as head coach and I expect this offense to do enough to get the Owls close to a bowl game.
Navy under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $50)
The Midshipmen were good last season, but their turnover margin (+10) spells regression. Eight wins is still a good season for a service academy.
Rice over 3.5 wins ($400 to collect $650)
This, along with Virginia Tech, is my biggest win total play. People are sleeping on Rice, but I expect the hire of Scott Abell and the implementation of the triple to provide immediate dividends.
Tulane under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)
The non-con is tougher that it initially appears with three power conference teams (Duke, Northwestern, and Ole Miss). The Green Wave may be favored in two of those games, but 0-3 or 1-2 is entirely possible.
ACC Plays
California over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $52.50)
I'll make the contrarian play here. There is not a guaranteed win on the schedule outside of Texas Southern, but I think the market is too low on a Cal team that lost five games by a touchdown or less last season.
Clemson under 10.5 wins ($50 to collect $83.35)
I found a stray ten and a half and had to play it (rest of market is at nine and a half). Georgia Tech, Louisville, LSU, North Carolina, SMU, and South Carolina are all potentially losable games. This is not the late 2010s Clemson team.
Miami under 9.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.15)
Miami beat me last year when I had under nine and a half. I'm back for more punishment. The Hurricanes gain Carson Beck, but lose the number one pick in the NFL Draft who papered over a lot of their problems last season.
NC State over 6.5 ($25 to collect $53.75)
After disappointing with a 6-7 mark, I think NC State is back in the eight or nine win range. The only surefire loss on the schedule is a road trip to Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech over 6.5 wins ($400 to collect $860)
For some reason all the gambling podcasts I listen to are down on the Hokies. I look at their 2024 season and see a team that led at halftime in seven of their eight ACC games (four times by double digits). If the Hokies can close games out, they could be headed to the ACC Championship Game.
Big 10 Plays
Illinois under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $62.50)
Not buying the preseason hype. This team was extremely fortunate to win ten games last season. I wish this total had been eight and a half, but I had to play it out of principle.
Maryland over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $48.80)
I hated the Mike Locksley hire at first, but maturity involves admitting when you were wrong. Prior to lats season, Maryland had played in three consecutive bowl games. With a schedule devoid of Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State, I think they come close to bowl eligibility.
Michigan under 8.5 wins ($50 to collect $122.50)
The Wolverines won eight games last season, but could easily have finished 6-6 or 5-7. The pulled two massive upsets in their final two games (Ohio State and the bowl against Alabama), but also won tight games against Michigan State, Minnesota, and Southern Cal. Not only are there challenging road games on the slate (Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Southern Cal), but the home schedule has some land mines as well (Ohio State, Washington, and Wisconsin).
Northwestern over 3.5 wins ($50 to collect $80.30)
There are two guaranteed wins on the slate (Louisiana-Monroe and Western Illinois). I think the Wildcats are good enough to find two more.
Oregon under 10.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)
Road trips to Iowa, Penn State, and Washington, as well as home titles with Indiana, Southern Cal, and Wisconsin make me think the Ducks lose at least twice in 2025.
Penn State under 10.5 wins ($25 to collect $43.50)
The Nittany Lions are likely your preseason number one team. However, back to back road trips to Iowa and Ohio State could ruin push them under this number.
Wisconsin over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $56.25)
The schedule is brutal, but I think the Badgers pull off an upset or two to get to a bowl game.
Big 12 Plays
Arizona State under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $45)
The Sun Devils were legitimately good last season, but I still expect regression. The Big 12 is too deep to have a team win back to back titles.
Oklahoma State over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $60)
Does Mike Gundy have one more good ride in him? The Cowboys were the second best team in the Big 12 heading into last season based on the preseason consensus. They did not win a single conference game. I think they bounce back and get to a bowl.
Texas Tech under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $52.50)
I have two theories with the new world of college football (NIL and the transfer portal). Full on transplants are very likely to succeed (see Western Kentucky in 2021 and Indiana and Vanderbilt in 2024 as prominent examples), but buying a nearly full roster does not work as well. Football requires too much continuity and free agency is not a way to build a winner. It can augment a team, but rosters have to be built from the high school ranks. We'll see if the Red Raiders refute my theory, but they have not finished with more than eight regular season victories since 2008.
UCF over 5.5 wins ($50 to collect $90)
The Knights were much better than their 4-8 record last season. Hopefully they can at least get to a bowl.
Conference USA Plays
Delaware over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25)
Welcome to FBS Blue Hens! Delaware has a solid history as an FCS program and I expect them to immediately be competitive in Conference USA.
FIU over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $50)
I love the coaching hire and the Panthers were better than their record in 2024.
Jacksonville State under 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $36.90)
Its a story as old as time. Mid to low level college football team peaks. Coach uses that peak to angle for a better job. Mid to low level team declines. The Gamecocks can get to a bowl and still cash this under bet.
Middle Tennessee State over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)
I though Derek Mason would have the Blue Raiders competitive in his first season. Never wrong. Just early.
Missouri State under 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $45.85)
Missouri State does not have the FCS history of Delaware and I think they will struggle in their maiden voyage.
Sam Houston State under 4.5 wins ($200 to collect $410)
KC Keeler is a great football coach. Unfortunately for the Bearkats, he is now the head coach at Temple.
Independent Plays
Connecticut under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.85)
The Huskies won eight regular season games last year. That was their most regular season victories since winning the Big East in 2010. So how can we expect them to equal that win total, especially with three power conference teams on the schedule (Boston College, Duke, and Syracuse)? A bowl should be the goal, not eight wins.
MAC Plays
Ball State over 3.5 wins ($50 to collect $90)
I like the coaching hire and I think the Cardinals can be a mid-level MAC team in Mike Uremovich's first season.
Buffalo under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $52.50)
I think the Buffalo hype train might be picking up a little too much steam. The Bulls closed the regular season on a four game winning streak (the bowl made five), but they laid some eggs against the better teams on the schedule. Let's not pencil them into the MAC Championship Game yet.
Eastern Michigan over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $46.75)
Chris Creighton has been at Easter Michigan for eleven seasons. He has guided the Eagles to at least five regular season wins in the past eight non-Covid years. Its a testament to what he has built that last season's 5-7 record is seen as a disappointment.
Kent State over 1.5 wins ($100 to collect $164.50)
I love to dumpster dive and there is not a more distressed asset than Kent State. The Golden Flashes have not beaten an FBS team since the 2022 regular season finale. If they beat Merrimack in the opener, they need to find one MAC win to make this a winner. But if they lose to the Warriors...
Kent State over 2 wins ($25 to collect $51.25)
Once again, I'm taking a flyer on Kent State. They fired their coach in the spring and they can't possibly be worse than they were under his 'tutelage'.
Mountain West Plays
Air Force over 5.5 wins ($50 to collect $78.55)
The Falcons closed last year strong (four consecutive wins after a 1-7 start) and I think they bounce back after a rare losing season under Troy Calhoun.
Boise State under 9.5 wins ($25 to collect $67.50)
In the ten non-Covid years since Chris Petersen left Boise, the Broncos have lost at least three regular season games six times. The Broncos were the first Group of Five team to make the expanded College Football Playoff, but I think there are a few losses on this schedule starting with the opener at South Florida.
Fresno State over 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)
I like the hire of Matt Entz (former North Dakota State coach) and after their Week Zero tilt with Kansas, the Bulldogs may only be an underdog in one other game (Boise State).
New Mexico over 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $53.75)
I like the hire of Jason Eck from Idaho and while the Lobos lose a lot from last year's surprise 5-7 team, they have more several winnable games on the slate (Idaho State, New Mexico State, Nevada, and Utah State).
San Diego State over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25 wins)
Sean Lewis brought Kent State to respectability in his second season and I expect no less at a program with infinitely more resources.
UNLV under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $45.85)
Take a look at UNLV's football history. The past two seasons stick out like a sore thumb. I don't think the Rebels sink to a losing record, but they are probably back to being a mid-level Mountain West team.
SEC Plays
Florida under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $44.25)
The Gators won seven regular season games in 2024 despite a brutal schedule. The schedule is just as arduous in 2025 and they won't be sneaking up on anyone.
Kentucky over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $47.75)
I'll take a chance on Mark Stoops righting the ship. The Wildcats don't even have to get to bowl eligibility to cash this ticket. Of course, it could be dead in the water if they lose the opener to Toledo.
Missouri under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $38.90)
The Tigers were much worse than their record last season. I think regression comes for them hard in 2025.
South Carolina under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25)
The Gamecocks had five players drafted from last year's defense. Even if LaNorris Sellers continues to improve, I think this team declines.
Sun Belt Plays
Appalachian State under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $58.75)
I hate the head coaching hire. If the Mountaineers lose their opener to Charlotte, it could be one and done for Dowell Loggains.
Arkansas State under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $39.70)
The Red Wolves were an incredible 7-1 in one-score games last season. Regression is coming.
Georgia Southern under 7.5 wins ($50 to collect $82.25)
Trust Clay Helton with more than modest expectations at your own peril.
Georgia State under 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $45)
I'm starting to regret this bet a bit, but the Panthers will be behind the eight ball after a likely 1-3 non-conference slate.
Louisiana-Lafayette under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $48.80)
Before dropping the Sun Belt Championship Game and their bowl, 2024 was a special season for the Ragin' Cajuns. I expect a drop off, especially with South Alabama, Southern Miss, and Texas State (and maybe even Troy) providing stiff competition in the West Division.
Marshall under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $37.50)
Most of their team left to join head coach Charles Huff at Southern Miss. This is a rebuilding year in Huntington.
College Football Futures
Auburn to win the SEC ($10 to collect $260)
Auburn historically underachieved relative to their YPP and 1HPD last season. With some better luck, I think they have the upside to potentially get to the SEC Championship Game.
Iowa to make the College Football Playoff ($10 to collect $80)
The Hawkeyes are always strong defensively and with the addition of South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski at quarterback, the offense has potential to make things interesting in the Big 10.
Utah to win the Big 12 ($10 to collect $57.50)
The Utes should bounce back in their second season in the Big 12 and in a wide open league, they have a good a shot as anyone to capture the conference crown.
UTSA to make the College Football Playoff ($10 to collect $230)
At least one Group of Five team has to make the College Football Playoff. If the Roadrunners can win the AAC and hang tough with Texas A&M in the opener, they should be in the conversation.
Washington to make the College Football Playoff ($10 to collect $100)
Quarterback Demond Williams only saw significant action in their final two games (both losses by the way), but he has the potential upside to make the Huskies Big 10 contenders.
College Football Parlay ($10 to collect $94.90 - all must hit)
August 28
NC State moneyline over East Carolina
I think the Wolfpack get revenge for last season's bowl loss to the Pirates.
August 28
UCF moneyline over Jacksonville State
The Gamecocks should be outclassed against the Knights in Scott Frost's return to Orlando.
August 29
Colorado +4 Georgia Tech
The Buffaloes are tough at home and Georgia Tech might be getting a little too much offseason love for a team coming off back to back 7-6 campaigns.
August 30
Northwestern +6.5 Tulane
I would not be surprised if the Wildcats won outright.
August 30
Rice +14 Louisiana-Lafayette
Rice is one of my biggest over plays this season, so naturally I think they can keep this game close.
MLB Futures
Tampa Bay Rays to win American League ($10 to collect $190)
In late June, the Rays were 47-36. They are 9-23 since and more importantly, 6-12 since I made this bet. I can probably throw this one in the trash.
Thanks for reading my annual Vegas trip summary. The season gets underway in sixteen days with Week Zero. There won't be enough games for spread picks that weekend, but I'll be back with weekly picks shortly after that Saturday appetizer.
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