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Akron +7.5 Wyoming
This is definitely not the biggest game of Week One, but all tickets cash the same regardless of the teams involved. Both the Zips and the Cowboys suffered losing campaigns in 2024. For Akron, it marked their seventh consecutive losing season (third straight under head coach Joe Moorhead), but it was Wyoming's first in a non-Covid year since 2015! The Cowboys attempted to continue the Craig Bohl era by hiring his defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel as head coach, but fell to 3-9 in his first season in charge. Its hard to win at Wyoming. The area is sparsely populated with little access to fertile recruiting grounds and in this new era of college football, their NIL coffers are not overwhelming. The Cowboys have had two successful head coaches in the past 35 years: Joe Tiller (RIP) and the aforementioned Bohl. Early returns do not signal that Sawvel will become the third. In fact, this is the first time under Sawvel that the Cowboys will be favored against an FBS opponent. They were favored in their home opener against Idaho of the FCS last season, but fell to the Vandals en route to a 1-7 start. Wyoming had real issues scoring last season, which is not something you want for a team laying a touchdown on the road. The Cowboys were held below twenty points eight times last season and if we remove their 49-point outburst against one of the worst defenses in FBS (New Mexico), they averaged under seventeen points per game. So the Cowboys are in an unfamiliar role and struggled mightily on offense last season, but how have they fared when traveling east recently? Not too good. The Cowboys played regular season road games east of the Mississippi River seven times under Bohl (who remember is one of the best coaches the school has ever had). They were 2-5 straight up and ATS in those games. In some they were overmatched (Michigan State in 2014), but they were actually favored in three of those games (Eastern Michigan in 2016, Northern Illinois in 2021, and Connecticut in 2021). They won two (Northern Illinois and Connecticut), but needed overtime to beat Northern Illinois and edged Connecticut despite being a thirty point favorite! This team is not to be trusted on the road, even against the likes of Akron. The Zips don't have a lot to play for this season, being ineligible for the postseason thanks to a low APR score, and they have not had much straight up success under Moorhead (8-28 overall in three seasons). However, they have been tough ATS as a home underdog, posting a 7-3 mark. They have sealed the deal just three times in those ten games, so I expect Akron to lose by doing something incredibly stupid at the worst possible time (Zips have a -32 turnover margin under Moorhead), but they should stay within this number.
Charlotte +6.5 Appalachian State @ Bank of America Stadium
These two teams both entered FBS at around the same time (2014 for App State and 2015 for Charlotte), are located in North Carolina, are breaking in new coaches, and their mascots end in 'ers' (49ers and Mountaineers), but the similarities end there. App State was an FCS power before transitioning to FBS, while Charlotte was a football startup before their transition. App State has had just one losing season as an FBS program (for the pedants, I know they were technically FBS before the term existed in the 1970s and 80s) while Charlotte has had just one winning season as an FBS program. Despite their success as an FBS program, I think App State is in their worst position programmatically since they began their maiden FBS season 1-5. After that rough start, the Mountaineers closed the 2014 season on a six-game winning streak and then reeled off double-digit victories in four of the next five seasons (they won nine games in the other). Befitting a program with that kind of success at the Group of Five level, their head coaches got jobs at better (or at least those that pay better) programs. Scott Satterfield left for Louisville and Eli Drinkwitz took the Missouri job. To replace Drinkwitz, who left following the 2019 season, the Mountaineers turned to alum and offensive line coach Shawn Clark. Framed one way, the hire could be deemed a success. The Mountaineers were 40-24 under Clark and played in two Sun Belt Championship Games (losing both). However, its also clear the program slipped under Clark. From 2014-2019 under Satterfield and Drinkwitz, the Mountaineers were 26-23-1 ATS as a betting favorite. Under Clark (2020-2024), the Mountaineers were 13-23-2 ATS as a betting favorite. I know the betting line is not the best way to evaluate a head coach, but the Mountaineers only lost outright five times as a betting favorite under Satterfield and Drinkwitz while doing so thirteen times under Clark. They lost nearly three times as often in twelve fewer opportunities. The oddsmakers and the betting market rated the Mountaineers as a top end Sun Belt team, but they did not live up to the expectations. Can we expect anything different under new coach Dowell Loggains? Loggains spent most of career in the NFL, where he coordinated the offense for the Chicago Bears in 2016 and 2017 and the Miami Dolphins in 2018. I'll save you the trouble of looking those teams up. Their offenses, and the teams in general, were not good. He spent the past four seasons in college, first at Arkansas as a tight ends coach and the past two seasons at South Carolina as an offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks had a decent offense last season, but I live in Columbia, and no one was crying when Loggains left to take take the App State job. Loggains has never been a head coach before and does not have a track record of success on his side of the ball. Contrast that with Charlotte's new coach, Tim Albin. Albin won an NAIA title at Northwestern Oklahoma State in 1999 and was Frank Solich's right hand man at Ohio before taking over the job in 2021. After a rough start, Albin led the Bobcats to three consecutive ten win seasons culminating with an elusive MAC title in 2024. Albin will be a success at Charlotte, but his first season will probably be a challenge. Still, with the 49ers playing an in-state rival with an unproven head coach, catching more than a touchdown, and playing in their city (home games are played in Jerry Richardson Stadium), Charlotte is the pick.
Ohio State -2.5 Texas
This rematch of one of the 2024 CFP Semifinals is the crown jewel of Labor Day Weekend. These blue bloods last played in the regular season in 2005 and 2006 with the road team winning both games. The winner in each game also capped off an unbeaten regular season and won (Texas 2005) or played for (Ohio State in 2006) the BCS National Title. While both teams just played eight months ago, they will each be breaking in new signal callers. Texas has the quarterback with the better name recognition (Arch Manning), but I'm inclined to agree with noted troll Steve Spurrier who questioned how good Arch was if he couldn't beat out a seventh round pick last season. Meanwhile, Ohio State will start Julian Sayin as they replace the departing Will Howard. Sayin has thrown just twelve passes in his career (compared to 95 for Arch), but he should have a more talented supporting cast around him led by the explosive receiver Jeremiah Smith. This is an unusual spot for Ohio State. Under Ryan Day, the Buckeyes have been a regular season favorite of less than a touchdown just five times (at Michigan in 2021, at Notre Dame in 2023, home to Penn State in 2023, at Oregon in 2024, and at Penn State in 2024). The Buckeyes are a perfectly average 2-2-1 ATS in those five contests, but only one came in Columbus (Penn State in 2023). The Buckeyes were four point favorites, but beat the Nittany Lions in a defensive struggle 20-12. I expect a similar low-scoring affair here with both teams playing it safe with inexperienced quarterbacks. This is also an unusual spot for Texas as the Longhorns have only been road underdogs four times under head coach Steve Sarkisian. They won at Alabama as a touchdown underdog in 2023 (as a member of the Big 12), but are just 1-3 ATS overall in the role. You are getting the Buckeyes on the cheap, so back them in the biggest game of Week One.
Mississippi State -11.5 Southern Miss
I don't typically like laying points, especially on the road, and especially with bad teams, but I think the market has gone too far in their love affair with Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles finished 1-11 last season (no FBS wins), fired their head coach, and switched out a significant portion of their roster with the reigning Sun Belt champs. Head coach Charles Huff made the unique in-conference coaching change, coming west from Huntington and bringing some of his best players with him. Thats great news for Southern Miss. The Eagles won't go 1-11 in 2025, but I'm not sure the influx of Marshall players makes this team a legitimate contender in the Sun Belt, much less a threat to challenge Mississippi State. The Bulldogs were also bad last season, but at least they were SEC bad. They were bludgeoned at home by Toledo and lost every conference game by at least ten points, but they were also on their third coach in three seasons. With some continuity at the top and a solid returning quarterback in Blake Shapen, the Bulldogs should easily eclipse last season's meager two wins and potentially even win a conference game for the first time since mid-2023. Mississippi State plays fast, which is what you want to see from a team laying a lot of points. I don't think they will take their in-state rival lightly after what Toledo did to them last season. Take the Bulldogs to rout the Golden Eagles.
Northwestern +6.5 Tulane
One of my handicapping methods is betting against anomalies and this game fits that perfectly. Tulane has been quite good over the past few seasons, appearing in three consecutive AAC (now American) Championship Games. They have also appeared in the AP Poll in each of the past three seasons. However, this recent come up is an outlier for the Green Wave. After finishing unbeaten in 1998 under Tommy Bowden, Tulane posted just five winning seasons between 1999 and 2021. The also marks the first time Tulane has been favored against a power conference opponent in a very long time. Since 2005, Tulane has played 32 power conference teams and been an underdog in every one. They are 3-29 straight up in those games, albeit a more respectable 14-18 ATS. As for Northwestern, they are 21-6 straight up against non-power conference opponents since 2005. They have been favored in all 27 games except one. Their ATS record has been bad (9-17-1), but that is a function of the Wildcats being healthy favorites in nearly every game and enduring some close calls. I'm expecting Northwestern to have their best offense in recent memory thanks to the addition of quarterback Preston Stone via the transfer portal. Stone led SMU to an unbeaten conference record in 2023, but broke his leg in the regular season finale against Navy. He struggled upon returning in 2024 and was ultimately replaced by Kevin Jennings who led SMU to an undefeated ACC regular season and the expanded CFP. An outright victory by the Wildcats would not surprise me.
UTEP +6.5 Utah State
The Miners and Aggies are two ships passing in the night. Next year, UTEP will join the Mountain West while Utah State (along with Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State from the Mountain West and Texas State from the Sun Belt) will join Oregon State and Washington State in whatever the Pac-12 is calling its new incarnation. These two teams have faced off three times, with Utah State winning all three games. However, two of the games occurred in the 1960s and the most recent came in 2014. Interestingly, each Aggies win has been by almost the exact same score. They won 20-7 in 1960 and then won by identical 21-6 scores more than fifty years apart (1961 and 2014). I'm not a man who makes a lot of bold predictions, but I dare say this UTEP team will score the most point they ever have against Utah State and may even eclipse their point total for the three previous games combined. The Miners have better continuity at the top, as head coach Scotty Walden enters his second season in El Paso after a successful run at Austin Peay in the FCS. Meanwhile, Utah State is on their third coach in three seasons after Blake Anderson coached the team for three seasons (2021-2023), but was fired in July before the 2024 season began. Defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling was named the interim coach and the Aggies struggled through a lost season finishing 4-8. In the offseason, they lured Bronco Mendenhall from conference rival New Mexico. Mendenhall will be successful long term in Logan, but I don't think his team should be laying nearly a touchdown in their opener. Utah State is Mendenhall's fourth stop, so I went and looked to see how his previous three schools performed in his debut. Mendenhall's first head coaching job was at BYU in 2005. The once proud Cougar program was coming off of three consecutive losing seasons under Gary Crowton. The Cougars were slight home underdogs to Boston College in their opener and lost 20-3. Mendenhall stayed in Provo for eleven seasons before taking the Virginia job in 2016. Virginia was coming off four consecutive losing seasons under Mike London and opened the Mendenhall era by hosting Richmond of the FCS. The Cavaliers were upset by the Spiders 37-20. Richmond ended up being a good FCS team, advancing to the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs. Mendenhall coached Virginia for six seasons before retiring after 2021. He did not coach for two seasons before taking the New Mexico job in 2024. The Lobos were in very bad shape when he arrived, coming off of eight consecutive losing seasons under Bob Davie and Danny Gonzales. The Lobos opened the season as hefty home underdogs to Montana State of the FCS. New Mexico played well, but coughed up.a fourth quarter lead in losing to the eventual FCS runner-up. So, in three previous openers, Mendenhall's teams are 0-3, with two losses to FCS teams. His teams eventually end up being successful, but they are not great out of the gate. Were this game being played in 2026, I could probably get behind Utah State. But in an opener against a team with a successful coach of their own who is in his second season, I have to back the underdog.
Rice +13.5 Louisiana-Lafayette
Rice enters 2025 with a new football coach. The Owls hired a coach intimately familiar with winning at small academically minded institutions. Scott Abell coached Washington and Lee from 2012 to 2017 and has been the head coach at Davidson since 2018. In those thirteen seasons, Abell suffered just one losing campaign. If he has similar success at Rice, he may not be around long. The Owls have had just four winning seasons since 2007. Give the Owls credit though, they know the score. They have had just two head coaches in those eighteen seasons, giving their leaders plenty of time to try and push that boulder up the hill. Rice will be transitioning to a version of the option under Abell, so there may be some growing pains, but I expect this hire to be a success in the long run. To open the Abell era, Rice will travel to Louisiana-Lafayette, a team that ended last year on a down note, but still won ten games for the fourth time in school history. The Ragin' Cajuns were building to last season under third year coach and alum Michael Desormeaux. In his first two seasons, Louisiana-Lafayette finished with identical 6-7 records before winning the Sun Belt West last year. They lose a lot from last year's team so some regression should be expected. With that in mind, I have a hard time understanding this number. Its not a perfect metric, but if this game were played last year, the Simple Rating System would have made this spread about twelve points. Louisiana-Lafayette's SRS was slightly above average last season (0.99) while Rice was their usual below average self (-7.88). The difference between these two teams was about nine points and if you give three points for homefield advantage, that comes to twelve. Once again, that was last season. With marginal regression at Louisiana-Lafayette and potential improvement at Rice, this line should be closer to nine or ten points. Then couple in the fact that Rice should be running the ball and by extension chewing the clock, it will be hard for the Ragin' Cajuns to get margin. There is potential Rice is flat out bad in 2025 as they switch to the option, but I think this is a spot to bet into uncertainty. I would not be surprised if Rice catches Louisiana-Lafayette flatfooted and wins this game outright.
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