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Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 40-44
Kansas +4.5 Iowa State
Before Lance Leipold arrived in Lawrence, a five win season would have been celebrated. Of course, Leipold has changed expectations for the Jayhawks and a second consecutive season without a bowl game would be disappointing. Matt Campbell has similarly adjusted expectations in Ames. After getting the Cyclones to the Big 12 Championship Game last season, this season has been a disappointment. 2025 has continued a troubling trend for the Cyclones as they are on pace to be outgained on a per play basis for the second year in a row. The Cyclones were marginally outgained last season (negative .11 per play differential in yards per play), but this season, Big 12 opponents have outgained them by .84 yards per play. In particular, the Iowa State run defense has been bad for two consecutive seasons. That is not a good recipe for success against a Kansas team with a mobile quarterback and strong ground game. Iowa State has dropped two consecutive games as a home favorite, and a third straight would not surprise me.
Kentucky +9.5 Vanderbilt
I don't have spread data for games that were played more than two decades ago, but I imagine this season is a first for Vanderbilt. Unless a horrible Simpsons-esque tragedy befalls every member of the team, the Commodores will close as a favorite against Kentucky and will have been favored in each of their SEC homes games. For comparison's sake, the Commodores were not favored in a single SEC game between 2019 and 2024! A victory here would clinch a winning SEC record for Vanderbilt for the first time since 2012, but I don't think it will come easy. Kentucky has played well over the past month and a half, nearly upsetting Texas before winning three in a row. That streak has gotten Kentucky to the cusp of bowl eligibility. The Wildcats need to beat either Vanderbilt or their in-state rivals Louisville in the regular season finale. Kentucky has one of the more underrated defenses in the SEC, having held three of their last four conference foes under four yards per play. I expect Vanderbilt to exceed that number, but the Wildcats should be able to frustrate the Commodores on occasion and hold them below their seasonal averages. On the other side of the ball, the Vanderbilt defense has not impressed. They have the third worst per play defense in the SEC ahead of only Mississippi State and Arkansas, two teams that have combined for one league win. Vanderbilt may remain in the College Football Playoff discussion after Saturday, but it won't be easy.
Kansas State +17.5 Utah
2025 has been a weirdly dominant season for Utah. I say weirdly because the Utes have mostly played in blowouts, usually for, but occasionally against. Of their eight victories, all have come by at least 25 points. They have only lost two games, but their home loss to Texas Tech came by 24 points, meaning the Utes have played in exactly one game decided by less than three touchdowns. That game was a Holy War loss to BYU and it may end up costing the Utes a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game as well as a College Football Playoff bid. With that resume, you can sort of understand why Utah is laying over 17 points to Kansas State. Still, this is the second largest underdog role for Kansas State under head coach Chris Klieman. For what its worth, they won in their largest underdog role against Oklahoma in Norman in 2020 (nearly four touchdown underdog). While Utah has bullied most of the teams on their schedule with their explosive ground attack, I think Kansas State will be able to hold up in the trenches and force the Utes to pass, at least occasionally. That is something Utah does not do well. Utah is 80th nationally in yards per pass attempt (7.0 per throw). Those are not bad numbers, but they pale in comparison to their rushing average (6.20 yards per rush ranks third). If those runs don't result in big plays and touchdowns, they will keep the clock moving and be a big underdog's best friend. Kansas State mostly sleepwalked through a lethargic win at a very bad Oklahoma State last week, and that is probably inflating this line. The Wildcats still need to notch another win to attain bowl eligibility, so I expect their best effort against one of the best teams in the Big 12.
Pittsburgh +2.5 Georgia Tech
I was wrong about Brent Key. I figured Georgia Tech's strong finish when he was the interim coach in 2022 was mostly randomness. Key has proven me wrong, guiding the Yellow Jackets to three consecutive bowl games while putting them in position to qualify for the ACC Championship Game this season. While the 6-1 conference mark looks great, Georgia Tech has actually been outgained slightly by their ACC foes on a per play basis (-.01 yards per play margin). The Yellow Jackets have the best per play offense in the ACC and the third worst per play defense. And they have accomplished this 'feat' despite a soft ACC schedule. Their ACC opponents have combined for a 17-30 conference record with some combination of Clemson, Duke, and Wake Forest representing their best conference win. Pittsburgh represents their best conference foe by far and while the Panthers were last seen getting walloped by Notre Dame after hosting College Gameday, before that loss, the Panthers had won five in a row while averaging 40 points per game. The Panthers should come close to that number against a bad Georgia Tech defense. The Panthers also have one of the better defensive units in the ACC and should hold Georgia Tech in check much like the two good defenses (Clemson and Wake Forest) they have faced did (both held Georgia Tech to under 30 points in regulation). Take the Panthers to cover and win outright and introduce more chaos into the ACC race.
Rice +17.5 North Texas
North Texas is two wins away (home versus Temple next week) from playing in the AAC Championship Game and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Mean Green are also ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since 1959! I figured perhaps the legendary Hayden Fry had them ranked during his tenure in Denton, but this predated him by nearly fifteen years. The Mean Green were members of the Missouri Valley Conference the last time they had a little number beside their name. If you're curious, they lost at Tulsa (a team that finished 5-5) the last time they were ranked. I think the Mean Green may be overlooking the Owls after winning four in a row while notching at least fifty points in three of those games. While their record is great, I would argue the Mean Green are not much better on a down to down basis than they were last season when they finished a mediocre 6-6 in the regular season. Their offense is great, as it has been for all three season's of the Eric Morris era. And while their defense has improved slightly, it is still one of the worst in the AAC. Their record has been buoyed by an unsustainable turnover margin. The Mean Green are +14 in turnovers on the season (+16 in their nine wins). If the Mean Green are +2 or so in turnovers, they will blow the Owls out, but while not completely random, turnovers are fickle and can disappear at a moment's notice. While the Mean Green are fighting for a playoff appearance, Rice is fighting for bowl eligibility. The Owls are 5-5 in Scott Abell's first season and have already sprung two double digit upsets. Their most recent upset came after the Owls were off a bye (as they are this week) against a team with a poor run defense (Connecticut). The Mean Green also have a bad run defense, having permitted over 300 yards on the ground on three occasions this season while allowing over 200 yards three additional times. Rice should have one of their more prolific rushing performances this season and it will probably take a lot of points for them to cover this number. North Texas will score on this Rice defense, but Rice should limit the possessions and do enough scoring of their own to keep this within three scores.
California -3.5 Stanford
When you think 'classic ACC battle', how can one not think of Cal and Stanford? The two newest members of the ACC will square off for the second time as ACC foes. Despite modest expectations, Cal is already bowl eligible while Stanford is looking at a fifth consecutive three win season. By comparison, the Cardinal won four games in the Covid impacted 2020 season. Stanford has pulled a few upsets at home (Boston College and Florida State), but both those teams had to travel from distant lands to face the Cardinal. Cal plays in Palo Alto every other season and have actually been quite successful on The Farm under Justin Wilcox. The Bears are 4-0 ATS on the road against Stanford, having won the past three in the series. Those three victories have come in a similar role (small underdog or small favorite). The Bears have the better quarterback, the better defense, and both teams are off byes, so there is no rest or travel advantage. Cal is 2-1 in their three ACC road games this season, with the loss coming in overtime. I like the Bears to win by at least a touchdown and clinch a winning campaign.
Cincinnati +2.5 BYU
On Halloween, Cincinnati was 7-1, unbeaten in Big 12 play, and had at least a puncher's chance at qualifying for the expanded College Football Playoff. Three weeks later, the Bearcats have dropped two in a row and the season is in danger of falling off the rails in a scene eerily reminiscent of their first two Big 12 campaigns. In 2023, the Bearcats began the season 2-0 with a cupcake FCS win and a victory against former Big East rival Pitt. They lost nine of their last ten games. Last year, they began the season 5-2 with tight losses to Pitt and Texas Tech. Included among those five victories, was a win against eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State. Alas, the Bearcats dropped their final five games en route to missing out on the postseason. Can they avoid a similar swoon in 2025? The Bearcats have only lost once at home this season. Unfortunately, for those afflicted with recency bias, that loss came last week to Arizona. Don't look now, but the Wildcats may be playing the best ball in the Big 12 outside of Lubbock and Salt Lake City. For comparison's sake, Cincinnati was laying between five and six points to Arizona, a team I have similarly power rated to BYU. The Cougars are not seven points better than those Wildcats. BYU has only been favored in three previous Big 12 road games since joining the conference in 2023. They are 1-2 ATS in those games. The Big 12 has too much parity for there to be no drama down the stretch as the title game participants are decided. The Bearcats will win this game outright.
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