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Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 42-49
Buffalo +6.5 Ohio
After winning nine games, including five in a row after a 4-4 start in Pete Lembo's first season in upstate New York, Much was expected of Buffalo heading into 2025. Obviously, things have not gone according to plan, as the Bulls need to spring an upset to qualify for a bowl game. Buffalo has had a weird MAC season, narrowly beating Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and Massachusetts while losing to Akron despite a solid per play yardage differential. The Bulls defense has been particularly strong, ranking third in the MAC in yards per play allowed behind the elite units at Toledo and Western Michigan. The culprit as is often the case, has been turnovers. In seven league games, the Bulls have a -10 turnover margin. They have had trouble squeezing the football, as they have lost seven fumbles in league play. Despite their turnover struggles, I think their underlying solid per play numbers make them an undervalued play, particularly at home catching nearly a touchdown.
Arizona -1.5 Arizona State
Last season, Baylor came on strong at the end of the year, winning their final six regular season games after a 2-4 start, giving them darkhorse status heading into 2025. That horse just visited the glue factory, so that may not portend great things for Arizona in 2026, but in the present, they may be playing the best ball in the Big 12 outside of Lubbock. Arizona has won four in a row, but the Wildcats have played well for two months after getting punked at Iowa State in late September. They lost in overtime to BYU, which if you switch that result would make this one of the bigger Territorial Cup games in recent memory. They also lost on a late field goal to Houston. Overall, the Wildcats have the second best per play defense in the Big 12 behind the elite unit in Lubbock. Meanwhile, Arizona State has cobbled together a solid season with smoke and mirrors after a myriad of injuries threatened to derail their season. Over the past two season, Arizona State is 11-4 in one-score games (9-2 versus Big 12 opponents). The Sun Devils have been good, but they have been getting away with it a little bit thanks to their clutch play. I feel like we are due for a Jeff Sims dud and I think Arizona has the defense to make that happen.
Clemson +2.5 South Carolina
The last time South Carolina was favored in the Palmetto Bowl was also the last time they won in Columbia (2013). Perhaps history is repeating itself, but you may recall that 2013 South Carolina team was their last truly elite squad (depending on how you feel about last year's team). This South Carolina team is far from elite. Their offensive line is porous, their quarterback takes too many sacks, and the team has averaged under twenty points per game against power conference opponents this season. The offense got on track against a bad Sun Belt defense last week, but Clemson, despite their struggles in 2025, has played better of late. They also outgained their ACC foes by about a half yard per play this season. That is a far cry from the ridiculous numbers they put up when they were consistently winning the conference, but they are not a bad team. This feels like an overreaction to last week's offensive explosion against Coastal and an 'SEC tax'. South Carolina did not allow a sack last week against Coastal. This week will look much more familiar to Gamecock fans with LaNorris Sellers not feeling the rush and getting taken down a few times in the backfield.
Southern Miss -6.5 Troy
After looking like they were going to waltz into their first Sun Belt Championship Game, Southern Miss has dropped two in a row to set up a win and in battle with Troy. The winner figures to be a significant underdog to James Madison, but an appearance by either would serve as marked improvement after both finished a combined 3-13 in Sun Belt play last season. Troy has won all three games in this series since Southern Miss joined the Sun Belt in 2022, with each victory coming by double digits. However, those Southern Miss teams were mostly bad to mediocre and those first two Troy teams were Sun Belt champs. The Golden Eagles have been much better than Troy in their yards per play differential against conference foes. In fact, Troy enters with a significant negative per play differential (-.94 yards per play net). Southern Miss should get back on track at home against the Trojans and may end up winning this game by several touchdowns.
Florida State +1.5 Florida
I talked about an 'SEC tax' a few lines up and I can't think of any other reason why Florida would be favored in this spot. After firing Billy Napier, the Gators circled the proverbial wagons against Georgia, but have looked bad in their last three outings, losing to Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee by a combined 61 points, with the two worst showings coming in The Swamp. Meanwhile, Florida State has posted solid per play numbers in the ACC (+.84 yards per play), but have been undone by close games (0-4 in one-score games) and turnovers (negative four margin in last week's loss at NC State). The bones of a good team are in Tallahassee and its look like Mike Norvell will get one more shot to try and conjure up a functional body. Take the Seminoles to beat Florida and finish with a pristine 2-0 SEC record to back up their 2-6 ACC mark.
Maryland +3.5 Michigan State
On October 4, Maryland was 4-0 and leading Washington 20-0 in the second half. The Huskies stormed back to win and the Terrapins are riding a seven game losing streak (four consecutive double digit losses). It makes total sense to bring Mike Locksley back for 2026. No way they will just end up firing him halfway through next season. Locksley and the Terrapins may get to enter 2026 on a somewhat positive note as Michigan State has not distinguished themselves in 2025 either. After a 3-0 start, the Spartans have lost eight in a row, with six of those defeats coming by double digits. Yet somehow they are laying more than a field goal. I have to back Maryland on principle and for one other reason. Maryland does not do much well, but they do have a solid pass rush. And wouldn't you know it, only six teams have allowed more sacks than Michigan State this season. Back the Terps (at your own peril), but I think they end their skid this weekend.
Auburn +5.5 Alabama
This is an odd numbered year, so you know Auburn will be giving Alabama all they can handle in the Iron Bowl. This amazingly marks the eighteenth consecutive year Alabama has been favored in this game. Auburn last entered as a favorite in 2007, Nick Saban's first year in Tuscaloosa. Since 2007, Alabama has won five of nine in Auburn, but they are just 2-7 ATS. They covered in 2011 with one of the best teams in school history and again in 2015 against a very mediocre Auburn team. Speaking of mediocre, this Auburn team needs to win to get to bowl eligibility. The Tigers are 1-6 in SEC play, having canned Hugh Freeze a few weeks ago after a home loss to Kentucky. Since that loss, the Tigers have played better on offense, scoring 38 points in a near upset of Vanderbilt in Nashville and dominating Mercer on So Con Saturday last week. Auburn's main issue this year has been their offensive line. The Tigers have allowed 41 sacks on the season (only Ball State and Troy have allowed more). However, Alabama does not rush the passer very well. Alabama has racked up a mediocre 23 sacks this season (tied for 62nd nationally). Alabama also does not run the ball very well, which plays right into the Auburn defense which has allowed under three yards per carry on the season. Alabama will have to grind out a win, so this should be a one possession game well into the fourth quarter. Back the Tigers as they have played better since icing out Hugh Freeze.
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