First Half Point Differential: The 2025 Power Four

Two weeks ago, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season. This week, we do the same with the Power Four.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2025 ACC standings.

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded).

Miami did not win the ACC, but they were by most advanced statistics, the best team in the conference. They justified that esteem by winning three games in the CFP and nearly winning the school's first national title since 2001. In the ACC Championship Game, the fourth and sixth ranked teams in 1HPD met with the sixth ranked team winning the title. Two former NFL head coaches brought up the rear of the 1HPD rankings, with two Bills, Belichick and O'Brien finishing sixteenth and seventeenth respectively. 

Big 10

The 2025 Big 10 standings. 

1HPD in Big 10 play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in Indianapolis for the Big 10 title and the game was decided by a mere three points. Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon dominated their conference foes. Each finished with a 1HPD in excess of 100. The other five teams to finish in the black in 1HPD (Iowa, Washington, Michigan, Nebraska, and Southern Cal) finished with a combined 1HPD of 121. 

Big 12 

The 2025 Big 12 standings.

1HPD in Big 12 play (title game excluded). 

Texas Tech was the best team in the Big 12 in 2025 and the Red Raiders topped the 1HPD rankings and dominated BYU in the conference title game. The Cougars ranked a distant seventh in 1HPD, but finished 3-0 in one-score conference games to finish in the runner up spot in the regular season. 

SEC

The 2025 SEC standings.

1HPD in SEC play (title game excluded). 

Alabama topped a compressed 1HPD ranking in the SEC, but was dominated by the fourth ranked team in the SEC Championship Game. 124 points separated top ranked Alabama from sixteenth place Kentucky in 1HPD. That was easily the lowest of the four power conferences. The ACC was next with 149 points separating Miami and Boston College, while 240 points separated in-state rivals Indiana and Purdue in the Big 10, and a whopping 246 points separated Texas Tech and West Virginia in the Big 12. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Four conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

If this list looks longer than usual, your eyes are not deceiving you. I began the 1HPD posts in 2020 and over the previous six seasons (2019-2024), an average of 4.7 power conference teams overachieved by at least .200 relative to their expected record based on 1HPD. Texas A&M was the largest power conference overachiever in 2025. The Aggies led at the half in six of their eight SEC games, but led by more than ten points just once. They also trailed by four touchdowns at halftime in a game they ended up winning. BYU trailed at the half in four of the nine Big 12 games, and led by double digits at halftime just twice, but still managed to trek through the conference slate with just one loss. Texas trailed at the half five times in their eight SEC games and and finished with a negative 1HPD, but still finished with a winning conference record. Georgia was tied or trailing at the half five times in SEC play. The Bulldogs did at least finish with a positive 1HPD en route to another SEC title. Southern Cal trailed at the half in five of their nine Big 10 games. Lincoln Riley's seat would be exponentially hotter had they not come back to win several of those games. Minnesota also trailed at halftime in five of their Big 10 games and were losing at halftime by at least 18 points in three of those five. Michigan only trailed at halftime in two of their Big 10 games, but the Wolverines never led by more than eleven points at halftime either. Georgia Tech was tied or trailing at the half in five of their eight ACC games, including twice by double digits. Vanderbilt was tied at the half in three of their eight SEC games and trailed at halftime in two others. Ole Miss only trailed at halftime once in SEC play, but the Rebels did not put teams away in the first half. They never led by more than twelve points at halftime and were leading by four points or less on three occasions. Similarly, Virginia also trailed at the half just once in ACC play, but were tied at halftime three other times. 

And now the underachievers. 

The underachievers list is also longer than usual (5.2 power conference teams underachieved on average by at least .200 between 2019 and 2024). Arkansas is one of the best teams to ever go winless in conference play (hang the banner). The Razorbacks led at the half three times in SEC play and were tied at halftime in another. As previously mentioned, South Carolina frittered away a 27 point halftime lead against Texas A&M, but even if we remove that game, the Gamecocks were competitive all season. They were leading or within one score at halftime in all their conference games except one. Auburn was leading or tied at the half in four of their eight SEC games, but managed just a single conference win. The SEC trio of Arkansas, South Carolina, and Auburn combined to finish an uncanny 0-13 in one-score SEC games! Maryland only held a halftime lead in two of their nine Big 10 games, but both leads were by double digits and the Terps trailed by one score at halftime on four occasions. Florida State was leading or within a touchdown at halftime in six of their eight ACC games. Oklahoma State only led at halftime in one of the Big 12 games, but their 1HPD was not befitting a team that finished winless in conference play. Mississippi State only led at halftime once in SEC play, but they were tied or within a touchdown at the half on four other occasions. Another MSU, Michigan State also led at the half just once in conference play. However, the Spartans were trailing by a touchdown or less in four of their nine Big 10 games. 

Thanks once again for your continued patronage. I'll be back in a few weeks with a Vegas betting recap and then it will almost be time for the season to start.