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Statistically Speaking: College Weekend Preview

Saturday, November 19, 2005

College Weekend Preview

Since its rivalry weekend, there will be no conference affiliations in the picks.

Weekend Six-Pack:

Virginia Tech at Virginia
The Hokies have not played since their humbling at the hands of Miami 2 weeks ago. The Cavs are undefeated at home and looking to improve their bowl-standing by knocking off the highly-ranked Hokies. The Hokies have won 5 of the last 6 in the series and will continue their psuedo-dominance today.
Winner: Virginia Tech

Ohio State at Michigan
The Buckeyes have beaten every team they have played that has been either bad, average, or good. However, they have not been able to break through against the truly elite teams (Penn State and Texas). So what kind of team is Michigan? Are they elite? Let's examine their losses. The Notre Dame loss appears to be an aberration as several trips inside the 10 resulted in no points. In the Wisconsin loss, they outgained the Badgers by over 100 yards and were unable to recover any of Wisconsin's 3 fumbles (teams recover about half of their own and opponent's fumbles). Against Minnesota, Gary Russell scampered 61 yards to set up the winning field goal when the Gophers were playing for overtime. Since that Minnesota loss, Michigan has won 4 straight (including a win over Penn State). Despite their 3 losses, Michigan is a very good team and they will TCB at home.
Winner: Michigan

Alabama at Auburn
Last week, the Tides defense almost single handedly won the game against LSU. Meanwhile, Auburn went between the hedges and knocked off Georgia in the closing seconds. Thus, it is almost assured that the SEC West winner will grab the conferences BCS berth. However, the winner of this game may not be the West winner thanks to LSU's victories over both teams. Auburn is riding a hot streak and playing at home while 'Bama's offense remains impotent.
Winner: Auburn

Clemson at South Carolina
Gamecock fans are absolutely delirious nowadays thanks to their recent success under Steve Spurrier. However, it should be noted that the SEC East is down this year. Spurrier's marquee wins have been at home over 7-3 Florida, at home against 7-3 Central Florida, and on the road against 4-5 Tennessee. The combined margin of victory in those games is 18 points, meaning Carolina has hardly been blowing good teams away. Despite their 4 losses, Clemson is a good team. Their 4 losses have been by a combined 14 points, and 3 of the losses have come against winning teams. If there is one difference between the 2 schools its this: Carolina almost never loses to a team it should beat, and until this year almost never beats a team it should lose to. Clemson on the other hand, may lose some games to a team it should beat (Wake Forest), but often balances it out by beating a team it shouldn't (Florida State). Carolina is consistent. Clemson is not. In a one-on-one matchup, I'll take the inconsistent team with better talent. Besides Sidney Rice and Ko Simpson (and Steve Spurrier), there is not a single player on Carolina that I would take over their Clemson counterpart.
Winner: Clemson

Fresno State at Southern Cal
This is Fresno's chance to elevate their program to a new level. Knocking off the 2-time defending champs in their own backyard would be a monumental upset. Fresno State will keep the game close for a half, but Southern Cal is simply too talented to lose at home to a mid-major foe.
Winner: Southern Cal

Oregon State at Oregon
If the Ducks can knock off the Beavs in the Civil War, they will be 10-1 and have an outside shot at a BCS bid. The Beavs need to win this game just to become bowl eligible. Since losing their quarterback Kellen Clemens against Arizona, Oregon has squeaked by Cal and Washington State. That trend will continue as they do just enough to beat their bitter rivals and conclude a 10-1 regular season.
Winner: Oregon



2 Comments:

Blogger Assorted Babble by Suzie said...

Great Pick!!!!

WARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR EAGLE!!!

5:00 PM  
Anonymous F. J. Feces said...

Leo State gonna come through, son

7:26 PM  

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