East Carolina +10 Appalachian State @ Charlotte
The undercard of the Duke's Mayo Classic helps ring in the first full weekend of college football on Thursday evening. The Pirates and Mountaineers have played 31 times on the gridiron, but this marks their first meeting as FBS programs (App State made the jump in 2014). East Carolina has won the past six, but the teams have only met twice in my lifetime (2009 and 2012). In fact, this will mark the first time Appalachian State has faced a team from the American Athletic Conference since joining FBS. In regular season play, Appalachian State has posted a middling non-conference record both straight up and ATS.
I used the regular season qualifier because the Mountaineers have been superb in bowl games, winning all six they have played and covering four of them. While the bulk of Appalachian State's non-conference losses have come against Power Five teams, so too has the bulk of their wins come against overmatched foes from Conference USA. East Carolina (like a lot of the Group of Five) is a former member of Conference USA. However, the Pirates graduated to the AAC several years ago and while that has hurt their overall record, it has not hurt them against other mid-majors. East Carolina typically schedules a lot of ACC opponents, and thus have played only five non-conference games against fellow Group of Five teams since joining the AAC in 2014. In that limited sample, they are 3-2 both straight up and ATS. The non-conference schedule is more manageable this season, with South Carolina representing the lone Power 5 opponent (and that is going by the technical definition) so I expect a return to the postseason for the Pirates and third-year head coach Mike Houston. That run to the postseason should start with a competitive game against one of the top teams in the Sun Belt.
Old Dominion +31 Wake Forest
Thanks to Phil Steele's magazines and the Goldsheet site, I have roughly three decades worth of point spread information at my fingertips. It will probably not surprise you that Wake Forest has rarely been a four-touchdown favorite against an FBS opponent. In fact, since at least 1993, they have never been a four-touchdown favorite against an FBS team.
In a limited sample, the Demon Deacons are 1-1 ATS as a similar massive favorite. Extrapolating from a two game sample will not tell you much, but there is another angle to look at here. To my chagrin, Wake Forest was not ranked in the preseason AP Poll. As such, we can classify them as an unranked team (I'll pause here to make sure you follow). Surprisingly, in the College Football Playoff era (since 2014), 49 unranked teams have been favored by at least 30 points against an FBS opponent. Those 49 teams have not done well covering those large numbers. The teams have combined for a 17-31-1 ATS record. That is a shade higher than 35%. And the numbers are basically the same whether we look at Power Five or Group of Five teams.
That seems to be pretty strong trend and it makes sense logically. Unranked teams tend to not be elite so they shouldn't be expected to pulverize even really bad teams. In addition to the trend, Wake Forest may also be due some regression in 2021. Two offensive starters suffered season-ending injuries in July and the team posted an absurd positive turnover margin (+10) in the abbreviated 2020 season. Not only that, but we haven't even gotten to their opponent in this game. Old Dominion is one of the biggest mysteries heading into the 2021 season. The Monarchs were one of three FBS teams (along with Connecticut and New Mexico State) to opt out of the 2020 fall season. Not only that, but they also have a new head coach. Bobby Wilder was fired following Old Dominion's 1-11 campaign in 2019. His replacement Ricky Rahne, an assistant under James Franklin at both Vanderbilt and Penn State, took over and will make his head coaching debut about 21 months after he was originally hired. Betting into uncertainty can be a bad thing, but in this case the betting market appears to be too certain in regard to how bad Old Dominion is. I can understand where they are coming from. The Monarchs have gone 10-26 since winning the Bahamas Bowl in 2016 and have not beaten an FBS opponent since November of 2018! However, they have also not played a game in almost two years and will be breaking in a new coach. Not only will this be Rahne's first game as head coach, it will also be the first time someone other than Bobby Wilder has coached the team since they restarted the program in 2007. Will Old Dominion be bad in 2021? Probably. But this line assumes they will be as bad as they were in 2019 despite the fact their program and the whole damn world has changed a lot since then.
Duke -6 Charlotte
Is this the end of the line for David Cutcliffe? The erstwhile Duke head coach has been in Durham since the tail-end of the George W. Bush administration and aside from Steve Spurrier, is easily the most successful coach the school has had since Bill Murray (not that one) in the 1960's. However, after a run of four consecutive bowls from 2012 through 2015, things have been trending downward, culminating in last season's 2-9 campaign. While the record was poor, Duke fans should expect some positive regression in 2021. There is simply no way for Duke to turn the ball over as often as they did last season. In ten conference games, the Blue Devils committed an astounding 38 turnovers and were -20 in turnover margin. Spotting your opponents an average of two turnovers per game will almost always confine you to the bottom of the conference standings, and 2020 was no exception as the Blue Devils won just a single conference game (where they still turned the ball over four times). Of course, Duke did play one non-conference game in 2020 that broke up the monotony of their ACC schedule. In that game, Duke took out their collective frustrations against these same Charlotte 49ers, pounding them 53-19. That continued a positive trend for Duke under Cutcliffe against Group of Five or non-BCS conference teams.
Whether it be at home or on the road; as a favorite or an underdog, Duke has dominated their mid-major opponents under Cutcliffe. The games they have failed to cover have come against either a service academy (7-2 ATS against Army and Navy) or as a double-digit favorite (6-2 ATS in the role). Charlotte is not a service academy and this spread is south of a touchdown. In their brief history, Charlotte has not fared well against Power Five opponents. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS against Power Five teams and were significant underdogs (double-digit or more) in all six games. Their lone cover came against Tennessee in 2018 in a game they still lost by eleven points. In the other five games, Charlotte has lost by an average of nearly 46 points! Overall, Charlotte is 3-11 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents of any persuasion (Power Five or Group of Five). This is a great spot to buy low on Duke. I think the Blue Devils win handily.
Kansas State -3 Stanford @ Arlington
2020 was a true tale of two seasons for Kansas State. After opening the season with a home loss to what would end up being a pretty bad Arkansas State team, the Wildcats staged a miraculous comeback against Oklahoma and endured an injury to their starting quarterback to begin Big 12 play 4-0. Then the wheels came off. Newly christened starting quarterback Will Howard put up passing numbers befitting a quarterback from the early 90's and the team scored just 28 points over their next three games (all losses). The running game exploded over the last two games, rolling for over 500 yards and the team scored 62 points. Unfortunately, they allowed 101 and lost both games to finish on a five-game skid. The streak gave head coach Chris Klieman his first losing season since 2005 when he was head coach at some place called Loras College (with Willie, Mickey, and the Duke). I expect Kansas State to bounce back and return to their 2019 form when they won eight games and were generally a pain in the ass to other Big 12 teams. Quarterback Skylar Thompson is back and healthy, so I expect the offense to more resemble the one from early last season. Meanwhile, Stanford won twice as many games as they lost in limited action in 2020, but they were mostly lucky to win those games. All four of their wins came by five points or less, including two by a single point. Give David Shaw credit for rallying his team after an 0-2 start with nothing to play for in a season decimated by the pandemic, but it seems like Stanford is a long way from their glory days in the 2010's. I like Kansas State to win this one by at least a touchdown.
Oregon State +7 Purdue
Jeff Brohm has done a good job at Purdue. While he has a losing record as head coach, having gone 19-25 over four years in West Lafayette, Purdue was 9-39 in the four seasons preceding his arrival. He has turned the Boilermakers from an abject failure to a competitive team. Across the country in Corvallis, Oregon, Jonathan Smith appears to be well on his way toward doing the same thing. In three seasons, Smith has guided the Beavers to a 9-22 record. which is a little better than the 7-29 record the team posted in the three seasons before he arrived. Befitting coaches that took over downtrodden programs and pulled them toward mediocrity, both Brohm and Smith excel in the underdog role. Brohm is 15-5 ATS as an underdog at Purdue (with eight outright wins as a dog) and Smith is 14-12-1 ATS in the same role at Oregon State. Don't let Smith's seemingly mediocre ATS record fool you though. After a rough first year where the Beavers posted a 3-8 ATS mark, over the past two seasons, they are 11-4-1 ATS as an underdog with six outright upset wins. In a battle of two teams that are great as underdogs, it only makes sense to back the dog in this spot. Plus, over the past few years, you may as well set your money on fire as back Purdue as a favorite.
After posting a solid mark as a favorite in Brohm's first season, the Boilermakers are just 4-11 ATS in that spot the past three years with nine outright losses, including six at home. I need to do some more research on this in the offseason, but anecdotally, it seems like whenever a coach brings a team from the depths of despair to mediocrity or better (think David Cutcliffe at Duke as your archetypal example), they always struggle in the role of favorite. They seem to keep their underdog bonafides despite everyone being aware of their prowess in that spot, but struggle mightily when the shoe is on the proverbial other foot. I don't have any solid data to back this theory up (yet), but I don't trust Purdue laying points. They are 1-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2018 and Oregon State has covered their past nine games as a road underdog. Perhaps that streak is due to snap, but I'll let it ride one more time.
Arizona +12.5 BYU @ Las Vegas
In case you have forgotten, BYU fielded a pretty good team in 2020. The Cougars finished 11-1, averaged more than 40 points per game, and finished with their best final AP ranking (11th) since 1996. Arizona on the other hand, didn't play a game until mid-November, and after a competitive loss to Southern Cal, packed things up, culminating in an embarrassing loss to their rivals from Tempe. The winless season cost Kevin Sumlin his job and dropped Arizona's record to 26-41 since their Fiesta Bowl campaign in 2014. Why wouldn't they be catching double-digits against a BYU team looking for a Pac-12 scalp? Keep in mind, while 2020 was a special season for BYU, it was pretty out of character compared to their previous performance under Kalani Sitake. In his first four seasons in Provo, the Cougars were just 27-25 (23-25 versus FBS competition). They were also pretty bad ATS as favorites.
BYU was 9-13 ATS as a favorite in Sitake's first four seasons before posting a solid return on investment in that spot in 2020. What happened? Well, the Cougars found themselves a quarterback. Zach Wilson put up decent numbers in 2018 and 2019, but he became a superstar in 2020, throwing for 33 touchdowns and finishing eighth in the Heisman voting. Wilson was drafted second overall by the New York Jets and will look to lead that franchise back to the Super Bowl for the first time in more than fifty years (no pressure). Oh, and don't discount the loss of offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes who served in that role for all of Wilson's BYU career before moving to Baylor. Do you know who will be replacing Wilson under center (or in the shotgun) in 2021? I certainly didn't. I did look it up though and it appears to be someone named Jaren Hall. I don't believe I have ever seen Hall throw a pass, so I can't say how good he is or isn't, but you would have to be some kind of optimist to believe he will post numbers comparable to what Wilson put up last season. More likely, BYU will be similar to what they were between 2016 and 2019. The Cougars are capable of beating a Power Five team (a respectable 7-12 versus Power Five opponents under Sitake), but should not be expected to pound one by double digits on a neutral site. I'm not ready to offer a prediction on how successful Arizona will be under new coach Jedd Fisch, but the Wildcats needed to move on from Kevin Sumlin and in the first game under a new regime, as a big underdog, I expect a solid performance. Take the Wildcats to keep this one close.
Louisville +10 Ole Miss @ Atlanta
This year's Ole Miss team looks a lot like Louisville team from last season. Second year coach. Check. Exceeded expectations in first season culminating with a bowl win. Check. Explosive offense and suspect defense.
Check. Enter second season with moderate expectations (Louisville was 31st in the 2020 preseason AP Poll and Ole Miss is 27th in this year's preseason AP Poll). Check. Lane Kiffin has not angered his fan base by openly seeking other jobs (give him some time), but otherwise, the similarities are eerie. Kiffin and Ole Miss will look to avoid what befell Louisville as the Cardinals fell to 4-7 in 2020. Based on Kiffin's track record, that might be easier said than done. This is Kiffin's fourth college stop, and on two previous occasions, after ratcheting up expectations, he has failed to deliver. His second Southern Cal team was ineligible for the postseason, but won seven of their final eight games and finished ranked sixth in the AP Poll. They entered 2012 as the preseason number one team, but ended it with a 7-6 record (and perhaps more importantly were 3-10 ATS). After washing out in Los Angeles, Kiffin worked for Nick Saban at Alabama for a few seasons before getting the head coaching job at Florida Atlantic. In his first season, the team won eleven games and the Conference USA title. With fans expecting a repeat in 2018, the Owls sputtered to a 5-7 mark and again struggled ATS (3-7-1 versus FBS opponents). Those two seasons should make you a little leery of backing Kiffin and the Rebels this season. The defense was bad last year and while it may be improved, Louisville has a pretty good offense, so I expect them to put up some points. Even if Ole Miss is up by double digits in the fourth quarter, the backdoor should be wide open for a Louisville cover.
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