The Magnificent Seven: Week IV

Finally, a winner. Or five winners as it were. We had our first winning week of the season and will look to make it two in a row. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 5-2

Overall 10-11

Boston College +2 Missouri

I am a little reticent to back Boston College for three reasons.

1. This is an ACC/SEC tilt and if you haven't noticed, the ACC has struggled so far in 2021. 
2. Boston College has played an easy schedule through three games. Most teams would be 3-0 after facing Colgate, Massachusetts, and Temple.
3. Boston College will be starting their backup quarterback after losing Phil Jurkovec to an injury against the Minutemen. 

Despite those misgivings, I think you still have to give the benefit of the doubt to the Eagles at home. While quarterback Dennis Grosel is a downgrade from Jurkovec, he has experience. He saw significant action in 2019, leading the team in pass attempts, and started the season finale last season. While he has his limitations, this is not a freshman being thrown to the wolves. In addition, Grosel may not need to throw the ball too much. Take a look at Missouri's horrid rush defense. The Tigers allowed 174 on the ground in their opener against Central Michigan and then were shredded by Kentucky for 341 yards. But the coup de grace was last week when a directional Missouri school rolled up nearly 300 yards at more than eight yards per rush! Grosel can do some damage with his legs and as a team, the Eagles are averaging over 200 rushing yards per game and over five yards per carry against their soft schedule. Finally, what puts Boston College over the top for me is Missouri's poor road record following the departure of Gary Pinkel. In four seasons under Barry Odom and a year plus of Eli Drinkwitz, the Tigers are 8-18 in true road games and the eight scalps they have collected are not that impressive. 

The victory at Florida in 2018 was legitimately impressive, but there is not a lot of beef in those other wins. Some highlights include the Tigers closing out both the Bret Bielema and Chad Morris (he was already fired, but you get the idea) eras at Arkansas and beating South Carolina in their first game under interim coach Mike Bobo. Boston College has a pulse, so I think even with a back up quarterback, they can do enough on the ground to win this game outright. 

Texas Tech +8 Texas

Elite quarterback play is something Texas Tech has been missing since Patrick Mahomes left Lubbock following the 2016 season. That may have changed with the arrival of Oregon transfer Tyler Shough. Its quite early, and the schedule has not been formidable, but Shough has posted impressive numbers. If he can continue to post quality passing numbers in Big 12 play, the Red Raiders could be a dark horse contender in the conference, especially considering they put up surprisingly good per play defensive numbers last season. I'm buying the early season improvement for Texas Tech, but more importantly, I'm selling Texas. Since playing for the national title following the 2009 season, Texas has been one of the worst home favorites you could possibly back. In Big 12 play, under three different head coaches, the Longhorns are 11-21 ATS as a home favorite with eleven outright losses. 

Will that trend continue under Steve Sarkisian? The Longhorns have dominated two Group of Five opponents in Austin, put the only Power Five team they have played thus far ate their lunch. That game was on the road, but the Longhorns still entered as a decent sized favorite and failed to do much of anything on either side of the ball. Texas Tech should keep this one close and continue the home woes for favored Texas teams. 

Toledo -4.5 Ball State

One of the more shocking results from last week was Toledo falling at home to Colorado State. The Rockets were favored by two touchdowns, but struggled mightily on offense in a 22-6 loss. The Rockets allowed six sacks to a Colorado State team that came in winless on the season with a pair of home losses to a Power Five program (excusable even though it was Vanderbilt) and an FCS team (inexcusable). Perhaps we can chalk it up as a huge letdown following Toledo's close loss at Notre Dame the week before and the inherent randomness in college football. Despite the loss, Toledo's defense played well, limiting the Rams to 4.14 yards per play and no offensive touchdowns (the Rams lone touchdown came on a punt return). The good news for Toledo is the loss does not impact their goal of winning the MAC as this is the conference opener for both teams. And with a non-conference game against Massachusetts looming next week, you can be sure the Cardinals will have their full attention. Ball State, the defending MAC champs in case you have forgotten, have won the past two games in this series. However, the Cardinals have looked nothing like their championship selves through three games in 2021. They have been outgained in all three of their games and while that is understandable against Penn State, their closer than expected opening win against Western Illinois probably deserves additional scrutiny. And their most recent game, a drubbing at the hands of Wyoming, does not inspire a lot of confidence. Perhaps most concerning has been the play of quarterback Drew Plitt. Plitt averaged over eight yards per pass and threw 41 combined touchdowns in 2019 and 2020. Through three games in 2021, he is averaging just 5.2 yards per pass and thrown a pair of touchdowns. Like Toledo, Ball State still has all their conference goals intact despite the rough start. Unlike Toledo, we have not seen them play a good game yet this season. Ball State has also not been a good home underdog under Mike Neu, even during last season's run to the MAC title (were never a home underdog in 2020), posting a 2-7 ATS mark in the role with the seven ATS losses all coming by at least a touchdown and six coming by double digits. Laying points on the road always makes me nervous, but I'm willing to consider last week's result against Colorado State an aberration and back the Rockets. 

Western Michigan -3 San Jose State

What am I missing here? Why is this spread only three points (reflecting roughly a pick 'em on a neutral field). Western Michigan is coming off a big upset of Pittsburgh and does start conference play next week, so this could be considered the dreaded 'sandwich' spot. Yes, Western Michigan was fortunate to beat the Panthers last week, benefitting from a turnover margin of +3, but the Broncos moved the ball quite well against a Power Five defense. The Broncos averaged 9.4 yards per pass against the Pittsburgh defense. By comparison, the Panthers allowed 7.2 yards per pass on the road against an SEC team the week before. It was Tennessee, but for the time being, they are still in the SEC. And while it may be tough for Western Michigan to be ready to play after pulling that shocker, their opponent may well be at a disadvantage due to travel. The Spartans clawed their way to a tight win at Hawaii last week, with the game ending well after midnight on the east coast. Now after returning to California, the Spartans must travel more than halfway across the continental United State for a two o'clock eastern kick at Kalamazoo, Michigan. I'll also point out that after an impressive Week Zero shellacking of Southern Utah, the Spartans have struggled to move the ball and score points. They scored seven against Southern Cal in a game where they had a decided disadvantage in talent, but they also managed just 17 against Hawaii despite having a bye week to prepare for the long trip to the islands. Perhaps more concerning, they averaged under four yards per play against the Warriors. Western Michigan is going to score points. They have averaged at least 32 per game in each of Tim Lester's first four seasons and are just south of 29 per game thus far in 2021. And suddenly, their poor showing in the opener against Michigan doesn't look so bad. Perhaps I am overreacting to their win against Pittsburgh, but with the spread below a field goal, you have to back the Broncos against a struggling offense facing a ridiculous travel challenge. 

Update: After writing this entry, news broke that Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester has tested positive for Covid-19 and will not coach on Saturday. While this is less than ideal, it has not impacted the point spread at all, and there is precedent for a team with a Covid-positive head coach playing well. I'll ride with the Broncos despite the diagnosis. 

South Carolina +5 Kentucky

Through three games of the Shane Beamer era, consider me pleasantly surprised. The Gamecocks dominated a bad FCS team in their opener, won on the road with a backup quarterback (as an underdog in a game they fell behind by two touchdowns), and didn't look completely helpless on the road against one of the best college football teams in the country. The Gamecocks never threatened to beat Georgia, but they hit a few big plays against an elite Georgia defense and perhaps more importantly, covered the large point spread. Now they return home to face a team that has given them real problems for the past seven years. South Carolina began the 21st century by dominating this series, winning 13 of 14 matchups between 2000 and 2013. However, since 2014 (which coincidentally was the second year of the Mark Stoops era in Lexington), the Wildcats have won six of seven with half their wins coming in the underdog role. As you can tell by scrolling back up, Kentucky is not an underdog in this game. In fact, they are actually a road favorite, which is a position they have not been in very often under Stoops. The Wildcats have been road favorites in SEC play just three previous times under Stoops. In that limited sample, they are 1-2 both straight up and ATS. If you are going to lay points on the road with Kentucky, you obviously need to have a lot of confidence in them. Should you? They have beaten one of the worst teams in FBS, an SEC opponent with a horrendous rush defense, and escaped against an FCS opponent with each of the victories coming at home. Should they really be laying more than a field goal in their first road game of the season against a team that needs to win this game if they have hopes of qualifying for a bowl? I don't think so. I like the Gamecocks to win this one outright and generate very pragmatic expectations for their rational fan base. 

Kansas State +6 Oklahoma State

Both these Big 12 squads pulled off minor upsets against Mountain West teams last week. Kansas State beat Nevada at home and Oklahoma State beat Boise on the Smurf Turf. The victory moved Kansas State into the AP top 25 for the third consecutive season. Wildcat backers hope they can end the season there; something they have failed to do in the previous two campaigns. Oklahoma State is currently in the 'others receiving votes' category (technically 29th), but would certainly move into the real poll if they can beat Kansas State at home. While Oklahoma State is known for their prolific offenses under head coach Mike Gundy, the team has actually been rather pedestrian on that side of the ball for the last year or so. After averaging at least six yards per play each season between 2015 and 2019, the Cowboys slipped to 5.53 yards per play last season and are averaging under five yards per play in 2021 (4.82) despite facing no Power Five teams through their first three games. Thankfully the defense has improved and I would argue Oklahoma State looks more like a non-elite Big 10 outfit (say Iowa or good Northwestern) than a typical high-flying Big 12 team. While that formula has worked on the field (10-3 in the regular season since the start of 2020), it has not been a winning strategy at the betting window. The Cowboys are just 3-6-1 ATS as a betting favorite in that span. The betting public has visions of Mason Rudolph, Brandon Weeden, James Washington, and Justin Blackmon lighting up scoreboards when they wager on the Cowboys, but that simply has not come to fruition with the current crop of players. Oklahoma State has scored 23, 28, and 21 points thus far in 2021. Its hard to get margin if you top out under 30 points. I would be more confident in the Wildcats if their starting quarterback were not injured two weeks ago. Of course, were Skylar Thompson not injured, this spread would likely be different. Last week against Nevada, the Wildcats threw 13 passes and I expect that will be the game plan going into Stillwater. I expect a lot of runs, especially from the quarterback position, and a conservative passing game. While Oklahoma State's defense has played well early, Kansas State's should not be ignored either. Last week, they held a team led by a future NFL quarterback to 17 points and while they allowed 306 yards passing, it took Nevada 41 throws to reach that threshold. While I think the numbers point to Kansas State in this spot, the series history also favors the Wildcats. Since the Big 12 dropped their division format after the 2010 season and these two teams resumed this series on an annual basis, Kansas State has covered eight of ten meetings, including four of the past five in Stillwater. They lost by 13 their last trip here, but the previous four were all decided by a touchdown or less. I expect another tight game on Saturday and don't forget Kansas State is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog under Chris Klieman, with four outright wins. 

Nebraska +5 Michigan State

We'll find out a lot about Michigan State on Saturday night. For the first time under Mel Tucker, there are expectations. The Spartans are ranked for the first two in nearly two years and are home favorites for just the second time under Tucker. Their first foray as a home favorite didn't go too well. Three weeks ago, Michigan State entered their opener at Northwestern as an underdog. They won that game handily, although that may say more about Northwestern. Their next game was a warmup against an FCS opponent which they won with no trouble. Then last week, they traveled to Miami as about a touchdown underdog. They won the game by 21 points, but the game itself was much closer than that, with the Spartans tacking on two touchdowns in the last five minutes. The Spartans averaged about a yard more per play than the Hurricanes and were also the beneficiary of four Miami turnovers. Once again, the result may say more about their opponent. Miami looks janky so far in 2021 and they have a penchant for blowing games they should win under Manny Diaz. In his two plus seasons on the job, the Hurricanes have posted a 15-10 record in the regular season. Seven of those ten losses have come when the Hurricanes entered the game as a betting favorite, with four of the seven coming in Hard Rock Stadium. The Spartans join elite company like Georgia Tech in 2019 by winning at Miami. Meanwhile, Nebraska has quietly rebounded from their disastrous start in Week Zero. They have won two of three and acquitted themselves quite well in Norman last week. In fact, Nebraska has averaged more yards per play than each of their first four opponents. The public threw them in the trash following their loss to Illinois, but I think they still have some value. In addition, Michigan State has made bettors hemorrhage cash as a home favorite over the past few seasons. Since qualifying for the College Football Playoff in 2015, the Spartans are just 3-9 ATS as a home favorite in Big 10 play with five outright losses. Nebraska's schedule is arduous from here, and any hopes for a bowl game (and potentially saving Scott Frost's job) likely hinge on winning this game. I'll take the undervalued and desperate team.