The Magnificent Seven: Week III

Well, we did better than the first week, but 3-4 is not gonna cut it. In the interest of blaming others for all my problems, I'll extend a nice middle finger to B*tch Davis, who kicked an 18-yard field goal with his team up four points at home. The Panthers would go on to lose the game in overtime and I watched the whole thing play out in real time on ESPN+ (let me know if you want me to do a sponsored post World Wide Leader). We'll try and pick more aggressive coaches this week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4

Overall 5-9

Buffalo +14 Coastal Carolina

Coastal completed the first round of the Lance Leipold gauntlet last week when they beat Kansas for the third straight season. Now they head north to Buffalo to take on Leipold's old team, the Buffalo Bulls. Under Leipold, the Bulls were pretty strong as home underdogs, posting a 10-3 ATS mark, including 4-1 as a double-digit underdog. Of course, commensurate with the success the team had over the back half of his tenure, they were rarely home underdogs over the past few seasons. In fact, since the start of the 2018 season, they were home underdogs just twice. They covered both games and beat Temple outright as a two touchdown underdog. But we can't live in the past. Leipold is no longer in upstate New York, and while his former team looked great against Wagner, their road trip to Nebraska did not inspire a lot of confidence. The Bulls scored just three points and their passing attack generated just 224 yards on fifty attempts. But lo, the boys from Conway may be the elixir the passing game needs. Coastal also steamrolled an FCS team in their opener, and while the final score of their game with the Jayhawks was not close, there was some cause for concern. The Kansas offense that averaged under four yards per play at home against South Dakota put up over 400 yards of total offense and averaged north of six yards per play against the Chanticleers. For what it's worth, I don't think Buffalo has the soldiers (see what I did there) to win this game outright. I don't foresee them getting too many stops on defense, but they should be able put up points of their own and keep in mind this is Coastal's first road game of the season. I expect a solid atmosphere as the Bulls welcome a ranked team to their home turf for the first time since 2014 and a high-scoring cover. 

Kansas State +2 Nevada

Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson was hurt last week in their closer than expected win against Southern Illinois. That is why they are home underdogs to a team from the Mountain West. Of course, I shouldn't sell Nevada short. They have already beaten one Power Five team on the road and are one of the favorites to capture the Mountain West title this season. And they have an NFL quality quarterback. In the most important position on the field, the Wolfpack have a decided advantage. However, its those other twenty-something positions where Kansas State can do enough on the margins to eke out a home win. The Wildcats have played well on defense in their first two games, limiting a Stanford offense that just got Clay Helton fired to seven points. And they are almost always strong on special teams, helping them win field position battles. I also expect the point spread to motivate Kansas State. Being a home underdog to a Group of Five team is bound to produce good bulletin board material for Chris Klieman. Plus Klieman has continued the Kansas State tradition of dominating in the underdog role. His teams are 3-1 ATS as home underdogs and an even more impressive 10-4 ATS as an underdog at any venue (with seven outright wins). I think Kansas State running back Deuce Vaughn will have a big day against a suspect Nevada rush defense and the Wildcats will pull off the minor upset. With their quarterback injury, I'm not sure they are a team I would buy going forward, but for this one game, they are a strong play. 

Purdue +7 Notre Dame

Is this a case of being late to the party? The Irish have neither covered nor impressed in their first two games, needing overtime to edge Florida State and trailing late in the fourth quarter at home versus Toledo. Is this the week they get their act together in front of the home crowd and pound a well-coached, but overmatched Purdue squad? Maybe, but I still have some lingering doubts about how good the Irish are. They have not been able to run the ball against two less than elite defenses (under three yards per rush on the year) and they have allowed over five yards per rush. The pass offense has been great, with Jack Coan averaging nearly nine yards per throw, but the poor ground game has put him in a lot of second or third and longs. That's not a long term recipe for success, especially when the offensive line has allowed ten sacks through two games. Purdue has been great as a road underdog under Jeff Brohm, going 7-1 ATS in the role since he arrived. Its easy to forget that both these teams are in the same state (Indiana), so I expect Purdue to be motivated with a shot at taking down the more prestigious in-state team for the first time since 2007. Take the Boilermakers and the touchdown they are being spotted. 

Florida +14.5 Alabama

I hate getting in front of potential juggernauts like Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State over the past few years, but this number is just too enticing to pass up. With Alabama the preeminent program in college football, you are almost always paying some sort of a tax to back the Crimson Tide. That doesn't necessarily mean the tax should preclude you from betting them (Alabama has a winning ATS record each of the past three seasons), but it does mean you are almost always laying a point or two more with them than you should be. The Crimson Tide have been dominant in the early going, beating Miami and Mercer by similar margins. While the victory over Miami was impressive on paper, the Hurricanes may end up being a disappointment this season. After their demoralizing loss to the Crimson Tide, Miami nearly lost at home to Appalachian State. There is no shame in losing to the Mountaineers (they beat two Power Five teams in 2019), but the Hurricanes averaged under five yards per play at home and quarterback D'Eric King has not provided any big plays in the passing game. Why am I spending so much time talking about Miami in the write up for the SEC conference game? Because while Alabama's offense looks as potent as ever, their defense has not been tested yet. That will change on Saturday in Hank Hill Peter Griffin Stadium. Florida has rolled up over 1200 yards in their first two games, and while the competition was lacking, the results are still impressive. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has rushed for 275 yards on just eleven carries! Richardson has split time with Emory Jones in the early going and that trend should continue against Alabama with Mullen rotating his quarterbacks like another successful Florida football coach. The Gators won't treat Alabama like a Group of Five team, but I expect them to score their fair share of points. That offensive competency means the Gators will be live to cover this number even if winning the game is out of reach in the fourth quarter. Plus, Mullen has been pretty good as a home underdog in his career. At Mississippi State, his teams were 12-10 ATS in the role and his Florida teams are 2-0 with a pair of outright upsets. His teams have been even better as a double-digit home underdog. At Mississippi State, his teams were 6-1 ATS in that spot and his Florida teams have yet to be that big a home underdog. Finally, while last season's Alabama team may be the greatest college football team of all time, one thing they never had to do was beat a ranked team on the road. All their ranked opponents either visited Tuscaloosa or faced them on a neutral field. The last time Alabama faced a ranked team on the road was the end of the 2019 season at Auburn. Does Florida have enough Malzahn Magic to pull off the outright upset? I wouldn't go that far, but covering two touchdowns is quite likely. 

Florida State +5 Wake Forest

What a difference a few plays can make. While its true that last week's loss to Jacksonville State was among the most embarrassing in Florida State history (at least post 1975 Florida State history), its also true that Florida State is two plays away from being 2-0 with one of the wins coming against a team coming off a College Football Playoff appearance. Notre Dame is probably not as good as their AP ranking judging by their first two games, but Florida State has at least proven they are capable of playing competent Power Five football (except when defending pseudo Hail Marys). Can the Seminoles circle the wagons after that sickening defeat or is Mike Norvell a dead man walking? As far as opponents to face after one of the worst defeats in school history, you could do a lot worse than a road trip to Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have been favored against Florida State exactly two times since they joined the ACC (they played the Seminoles a few times in the 1950's, 60's, and 70's, but I have no idea what the spreads were in those games). Not surprisingly, both those games came at home. And in both those games, Wake Forest failed to cover, and lost once outright. Early on, we know what Florida State is and is not capable of, but what do we know about Wake Forest? This game represents a significant step up in competition for the Demon Deacons who opened with games against an FBS team that did not play last season and an FCS team that also sat out 2020. Wake Forest was never threatened in either game, but they didn't post absurd offensive numbers either. I'd say after two games, your opinion of Wake Forest should be pretty close to what it was in July. If you thought Wake Forest would be a five point favorite over Florida State in their ACC opener, I'd classify you as an optimist. Perhaps Florida State is worse than you thought they would be in July, but like I mentioned earlier, they are two plays from being 2-0. Is the last play by Jacksonville State coloring your opinion of this game too much? If you are looking to lay it with Wake Forest, I think the answer is 'yes'. 

Duke +3 Northwestern

I don't believe I have picked a Duke game correctly ATS in the past two years. But if I am anything, its a glutton for punishment, so mamma mia, her I go again. Does David Cutcliffe have one last stand in him? I think so. The Blue Devils can simply not be as bad turning the ball over as they were last season (-19 in eleven games). That has been true thus far in 2021, with the Blue Devils committing just two turnovers through their first two games. Of course, they have not forced any turnovers, so they are still in the red, and they did lose one of those games to Charlotte. However, the offense has looked better, averaging north of seven yards per play against the light competition. The defense has had issues, allowing nearly seven yards per play to Charlotte while giving up a late touchdown drive to blow that game. But I don't know that Northwestern is going to be able to take advantage of those defensive lapses. The Wildcats have struggled on offense since the start of the 2018 season, and things don't appear to be getting better early in 2021. Northwestern put up 24 points and averaged less than four and a half yards per play against Indiana State last week after scoring 21 points (just seven after three quarters) against Michigan State in the opener. Perhaps more troubling was the Northwestern defense that gave up over 300 yards on the ground to Michigan State. They played better against Indiana State (just 169 total yards allowed), but the Wildcats have not given me any reason to believe they should be favored on the road against another Power Five team. I think Northwestern should be the team catching points, so I'll back Duke one last time. 

Utah State +8 Air Force

One of these teams has beaten a Power Five opponent on the road. Somehow that team is catching more than a touchdown. It slipped under the radar because it happened on the nearly inaccessible Pac-12 Network, but Utah State opened the Blake Anderson era with a win at Washington State. The victory was the Aggies first against a Power Five opponent since beating Wake Forest in 2014. Coupled with their win against North Dakota last Friday, it means the Aggies have already doubled last season's win total. When I was checking the lines, I expected this one to be a field goal or less in Air Force's favor. While the Falcons are also 2-0 on the young season, their victories have come against an FCS opponent and a Navy team that is pardon the pun, taking on water. The Falcons have rushed for over 500 yards in their first two games, but have showed little explosiveness, in averaging just 4.33 yards per rush. Utah State has been vulnerable through the air, allowing nearly 400 yards passing in their game against North Dakota, but their run defense has been solid. Befitting a triple option team, Air Force has thrown just 15 passes in their first two games and has completed just six of their attempts. In his previous head coaching stop at Arkansas State, Anderson's teams were great as conference road underdogs (in the rare instances they were in that role), posting a 4-1 ATS mark with three outright wins. This line is way too high for what I expect to be a very competitive game.