Another week, another 3-4 record. Things have to turn around soon right? Home teams in BOLD.
Overall: 16-19
Buffalo -2 Bowling Green
After an 0-3 start to the season that included a home loss to an FCS team, Buffalo has quietly won two in a row to get in position to contend for the MAC East crown. Last week's victory against Miami of Ohio required a fourth quarter comeback with Cole Snyder tossing the winning touchdown in the final minute. Buffalo was fortunate to catch Miami as they are without the services of Brett Gabbert. His backup, Aveon Smith, made some big plays on the ground, but was confounded by the forward pass and the Bulls beat what is likely the division's top team when healthy. Meanwhile, Bowling Green won their MAC opener last week. It marked the first time the Falcons opened conference play 1-0 since 2015, which is also their last winning season and last time they won the conference. Even in a conference as full of parity as the MAC, I would still pump the brakes on the conference title dreams. Akron is probably the worst team in the conference and while the Falcons did beat Marshall at home earlier in the year, the Thundering Herd outgained them by nearly 200 yards. And they also lost at home to an FCS team. After posting a quietly competent defense last season, Bowling Green is allowing over six and a half yards per play to FBS opponents this year. The Falcons do generate a lot of havoc, accumulating 20 sacks on the season, but every opponent except Akron has scored more than 30 points against them (and the Zips scored 28). Buffalo has not played like the 1985 Bears on defense either, allowing over seven yards per play to FBS opponents. However, their slate of opposing offenses has been a shade tougher and they won their games without the benefit of a fantastic turnover margin. Through five games, the Bulls are +1 in turnovers and in their two victories, they are even with two turnovers forced and committed. Meanwhile, through five games, the Falcons are +6 in turnovers and that good fortune has come almost entirely in their two victories where they are +5 (in games they won by a combined six points). Bowling Green is being propped up by an unsustainable turnover margin and you are getting the Bulls at a discount. Look for Buffalo to move to 3-0 in MAC play with relatively easy win.
Missouri +11 Florida
Is it time to entertain the notion, no matter how far-fetched, that Missouri has a pretty good defense. Consider the following: They held Georgia to 26 points, the Bulldogs lowest point total in a regular season game since the 2021 season opener against Clemson. They held Auburn to 217 total yards at 3.3 yards per play the week prior. While they allowed 40 points to Kansas State in an embarrassing loss earlier in the season, their former Big 8 and Big 12 rival returned a punt for a touchdown and forced four Missouri turnovers allowing them to start three second half drives in Missouri territory. In three games against Power Five opponents, the Tigers are allowing 345 yards per game and 4.95 yards per play. The question here is, can they get off the mat after leading Georgia for the majority of last week's game before giving up the lead in the fourth quarter? There are certainly instances where a team struggles after leaving it all on the field against a highly ranked opponent (see Oregon State). However, unlike the Beavers, who succumbed to Southern Cal late in Corvallis and then were routed by Utah, Missouri was not unbeaten with designs on a conference title. The Tigers had already lost twice (once in conference play) and were already coming off a gut-wrenching loss. Florida looked great in a delayed home win against Eastern Washington where they posted an unholy 666 yards of total offense and scored 52 points. While the Eagles are an historically strong FCS program, they have allowed over 47 points per game this season. Florida's offense will encounter a lot more resistance this weekend and I expect Missouri to keep this one close as they typically have in their visits to Gainesville since joining the SEC. Missouri is 2-3 straight up against the Gators in Gainesvile, but 3-2 ATS. Their ATS losses both came in years that Florida won the SEC East (2016 and 2020). This Florida team is not at that level. Take Missouri to keep this one close.
UCLA +3.5 Utah
There are four Pac-12 teams that are unbeaten in conference play and two of them square off in Pasadena on Saturday afternoon. UCLA has had a very advantageous schedule through the first part of 2022, playing four of their first five at home (plus this one) with the lone road trip coming against woeful Colorado. UCLA has played well against that home friendly schedule, scoring at least 32 points in each game and topping 40 points four times. I feel like the Bruins threw the betting market off their scent a few weeks ago when they nearly lost at home to South Alabama. The Jaguars have proven to be a solid G5 team, but I think the market is still punishing them. Case in point, they were a slight home underdog against a Washington that dominated a relatively soft early schedule. Washington was playing their first road game of the year and while the final margin was somewhat close, the Bruins controlled the game from the middle of the first quarter and were never in danger of losing. Can they continue their ascent under Chip Kelly against the defending Pac-12 champs (and preseason favorite)? Utah opened their season with a road loss against a Florida team the jury is still very much out on. They rebounded from that loss with easy victories against FCS and G5 opponents before catching Arizona State fresh off firing their coach and Oregon State off a heartbreaking loss. The Utes dominated Oregon State on the scoreboard last week, but the play by play stats were much closer. Utah took advantage of four Oregon State interceptions to run away from the Beavers in the second half. After forcing one turnover in their opening loss to Florida, the Utes have forced eleven over their past four games (+8 margin). If the Utes finish with an average turnover margin of +2 per game over the rest of the regular season, they should run the table. However, turnovers are often a fickle mistress, so the Utes are probably a little overvalued in the betting market. Personally, I think this game should be closer to a pick 'em. UCLA is 7-5 ATS as a home underdog under Chip Kelly, but if you look at the chronology of that record, you can see improvement. In Kelly's first two seasons, the Bruins were 3-4 ATS as a home underdog with two outright wins. Since the start of 2020, the Bruins are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog and in all four of their covers, they have won the game outright. And their lone loss was a devastating bad beat. I think Dorian Thompson-Robinson can tax Utah's defense much like Anthony Richardson did in the opener. Take the Bruins and the points.
Duke -3.5 Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech began the post-Geoff Collins era with a victory as a massive underdog at Pitt last weekend. While it was a great victory for morale at Georgia Tech and made you feel good for alum and interim coach Brent Key, it was par for the course for Pitt. Since Narduzzi arrived in the Steel City in 2015, the Panthers have lost at home as a favorite of a touchdown or more six times, including five times since the beginning of 2019. Even when they were busy winning the ACC last year, they dropped two homes games, when a victory in either may have earned them a playoff bid. Plus, Georgia Tech's formula for victory is unlikely to be sustainable. The Yellow Jackets barely threw for 100 yards (102 to be exact). And if you were wondering, no, they did not revert to the triple option. They put the ball in the air 27 times and netted 102 yards (75 once we account for the four sacks that are inexplicably attributed to rushing yards in college football). Georgia Tech capitalized on three Pitt turnovers (plus a failed fourth down conversion) and still almost delivered a master class in blowing the game. From running out of bounds late in the fourth quarter to lackadaisical tackling with a double digit lead, the Yellow Jackets were fortunate to get the win even with all the help from the Panthers. I will say, it appears Georgia Tech emphasized special teams without Collins on the sideline as they made four field goals and did not have a single kick blocked in what seems like decades. Now the Yellow Jackets return home somehow just a half game out of first in the ACC Coastal. Those dreams will almost certainly be crushed by supper time on Saturday, but a nerdy engineer can dream of a rematch with Clemson for a few days at least. I will caution you that Duke has won two conference road games since the beginning of 2019 (Virginia Tech and Syracuse are the proud victims), but they appear to be quite improved under new coach Mike Elko. Plus the Blue Devils have already played two road games, beating Northwestern and hanging with unbeaten Kansas. This spread implies this game would be around a pick 'em on a neutral field. I don't buy that. The victory last week was nice, but Georgia Tech is still bad. Perhaps ACC bad, and not worst in the Power Five bad, but bad nonetheless. Take the Blue Devils to cover this small number.
Iowa State +2 Kansas State
If he drops this game, it might be time to start a dialogue about Matt Campbell. The former hot young coach has struggled over the past season and a half, with the Cyclones posting a 10-8 record since the start of 2021. Normally, any record over .500 would be cause for celebration in Ames, but Campbell has raised expectations. Of those eight losses since the beginning of last season, six have come as a betting favorite, including both this season. The past two weeks, losses at home to Baylor and at Kansas, have featured penalties (the Cyclones committed eight for 78 yards against Baylor, several of which extended scoring drives), turnovers (two in each game and a combined margin of -3), and missed kicks (three missed field goals in the three point loss to Kansas). Even with those mistakes, the Cyclones lost both games by seven and three points respectively. Now, returning home, this looks like a good spot to sell Kansas State. The Wildcats are 3-0 against the three Power Five opponents they have faced (Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech), but they also have a +6 combined turnover margin in those games. I mentioned that Iowa State has struggled with turnovers in their two losses, but turnover margin, while having a dramatic impact on the outcome of a game, is not predictive going forward. Iowa State is 3-3 under Matt Campbell against Kansas State, but has won three of the last four, with their two most recent wins coming by double digits. Iowa State famously sent The Legend out a loser in his final game and I think the wrong team is favored in this spot. The Big 12 is deep and while that will likely prevent it from placing a team in the College Football Playoff, it should make for a very entertaining conference race. Take the Cyclones to pull the small upset in this edition of Farmageddon.
Illinois -3.5 Iowa
Am I putting too much stock in what I last saw, or is it time to anoint Illinois as a contender in the Big 10 West? As of this writing, every team in the Big 10 West is 1-1 (except Wisconsin) and you could convince me any of five teams could be Ohio State's sacrificial lamb in the Big 10 Championship Game (Nebraska and Northwestern are the only two I can't see winning the division). While Iowa has the better defensive reputation in this game, I think its fair to say Illinois has performed better this season. The Illini have allowed under four yards per play in the early going and have held their last two Power Five opponents (Virginia and Wisconsin) to a combined 13 points. Iowa showed some signs of life in the second half of their loss to Michigan (scoring 14 points against the Wolverines), but this offense is bad until further notice. And offensively, Illinois has been far superior this season, with Chase Brown racking up 733 rushing yards at over six yards per carry. The Illini have not beaten Iowa since 2008 (lost last eight), but that was also the last time they were favored. I think the Illini win by about a touchdown and set up a huge divisional game next week when they host Minnesota.
Louisiana-Monroe +13.5 Coastal Carolina
Guess how many times Coastal Carolina has been an underdog since the start of 2021? Zero. The Chanticleers, along with Ohio State, were the only teams to be favored in every game they played last season. Oddsmakers have yet to install them as underdogs in 2022 either. Coastal has not been an underdog since BYU made their infamous cross-country pilgrimage to Conway in 2020. However, despite being the darlings of oddsmakers, Coastal has not been a great bet as a favorite in that span. Against FBS opponents, the Chanticleers are 7-11 ATS (4-5 at home, 3-4 on the road, and 0-2 in neutral site games). They have been double digit favorites 14 times in that span, and are 5-9 ATS (4-5 at home, 2-3 on the road, and 0-1 in neutral site games). Their run as a favorite is likely to last two more games (this spot and home versus Old Dominion next week) and end on a pre-Halloween trip to Marshall. Of course, if the Thundering Herd look like they have the past few weeks, the streak could continue. But I digress. While the Chanticleers are unbeaten, they have struggled defensively, allowing every opponent to score at least 24 points against them. Quarterback Grayson McCall has been able to make up for those defensive deficiencies by averaging ten yards per pass. Despite McCall's greatness, Coastal is an option adjacent offense that loves to run the ball. And Louisiana-Monroe should be able to corral their running game. The Warhawks are allowing under four yards per carry on the season and that includes games against Texas and Alabama. Their two Sun Belt opponents have both averaged under three yards per carry and the Warhawks accumulated twenty tackles for loss in those two games. Louisiana-Monroe will be able to get into the backfield on some early down runs and force Coastal into third and longs. McCall will no doubt convert some (perhaps a lot) of them, but Louisiana-Monroe will hold Coastal to around their scoring average (36 points per game) and be able to move the ball well enough against Coastal's weak defense to generate at least 24 points of their own. They don't have the goods to win outright, but nearly two touchdowns is too many.
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