We were back to our regular 3-4 standard last week. The season is half over, so its time to make some progress on this record. Home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 24-25
Eastern Michigan +2.5 Ball State
The past two weeks are a microcosm of what Eastern Michigan has become under Chris Creighton. Two weeks ago, the Eagles traveled to Kalamazoo to face Western Michigan as a small underdog. They crushed the Broncos. Last week, Eastern Michigan returned home to face Northern Illinois as a slight home favorite. They lost by four touchdowns. After two seasons bad seasons at the beginning of his tenure, Eastern Michigan has been competitive for seven years under Creighton (since 2016). In that span, the Eagles are a pathetic 3-10 ATS as a home favorite in MAC play with eight outright losses. However, as a road underdog against MAC opponents, they are 15-2 ATS with eight outright wins. I'm not sure if the betting market oscillates too far on their individual results or if the Eagles check out after big wins and check back in after unexpected losses, but this phenomenon seems to be real. I think it continues this week against a weak home favorite in Ball State. The Cardinals are just 5-10 ATS as a home favorite under Mike Neu and while they have won three in a row to get to 4-3 on the season, each win has come by less then a touchdown. Take the Eagles to pull another road upset.
UCLA +6 Oregon
At 6-0 and ranked ninth in the latest edition of the AP Poll, UCLA has achieved their highest ranking since they rose to seventh in 2015. That season, after a 4-0 start, the Bruins split their final eight regular season games and following a bowl loss to Nebraska, finished 8-5. That marked the beginning of the end of the Jim Mora era in Los Angeles. The Bruins went 4-8 in 2016 and after a 5-6 start in 2017, Mora was canned and in 2018, the Chip Kelly era began. It took Kelly awhile to get the Bruins on the right track, but since the start of last season, they are 14-4 (9-3 in Pac-12 play) and humming on offense. Both the Ducks and Bruins are averaging north of seven yards per play in Pac-12 action (top two offenses), so yards should not be hard to come by. The over/under currently sits at 71, and while both these teams are certainly capable of getting to 35 apiece, that seems a little ambitious. While both teams have scored at least 40 in each of their conference games, I think the early part of this game will be like a heavyweight fight with both teams feeling each other out with jabs and counters. While Oregon has faced the more challenging schedule overall (remember their opener?), I think UCLA has been tested more in Pac-12 play (having vanquished both Washington and Utah). The teams are pretty evenly matched, so I like the fact the Bruins are catching nearly a touchdown. Kelly is 0-3 against his old team since returning to the college ranks, but the past two games in this series have both been decided by three points. I expect another close one on Saturday.
Memphis +7 Tulane
Memphis could easily be 6-1 and on a six-game heater heading into this clash in New Orleans. Unfortunately, the Tigers blew a late double digit lead at home to Houston and then lost a toss up in overtime to East Carolina. Had a bounce here or there gone their way in either or both of those games, would Tulane be laying a touchdown? I doubt it. Consequently, I think you are getting some value on the Tigers. Tulane's defense is also probably a little overvalued. The Green Wave held East Carolina to nine points two weeks ago and the Pirates scored 30 points against Memphis in regulation last week. However, against Tulane, the Pirates missed a field goal, threw two interceptions, and were stopped on downs twice in Tulane territory. Meanwhile, against Memphis, the Pirates returned an interception for a touchdown and did not commit a single turnover. On a neutral field, I think this would be a pick 'em or Tulane would be a small favorite. The Tigers are getting too many points and I think Tulane may be reading their own press clippings. The Green Wave are ranked in the latest edition of the AP Poll. This is their first ranking since 1998! I think they suffer a bit of a letdown in a tight game.
Wisconsin -2.5 Purdue
One of these teams is 3-1 in Big 10 play and tied for first place in their division. The other is 1-3 in the Big 10 and tied for last place. And of course, the team in last place is favored over the team in first. Gambling makes perfect sense! This is not a vintage Wisconsin team, but I like them in this spot for a few reasons. For starters, they have dominated this series. The Badgers have beaten Purdue fifteen consecutive times, with the last Purdue win coming in 2003. Twelve of those fifteen victories have come by double digits. Plus, if you look at yards per play numbers, Wisconsin has fared better than Purdue in Big 10 play. Both teams are being outgained on per play basis (Wisconsin by .49 yards per play and Purdue by .92). And that includes Wisconsin's loss to Ohio State. If we remove that game from their ledger, the Badgers are actually above water (+.17 yards per play) in the Big 10. I know arbitrarily removing games may not be the best way to handicap football teams, but Ohio State is clearly a cut above the rest of the Big 10 (except for maybe Michigan) this season. Purdue has won all their Big 10 games by one score and they have been getting torched by opposing passers (Big 10 quarterbacks have averaged 8.7 yards per pass against their secondary). Graham Mertz may finally deliver on his hype this weekend. Take Wisconsin to cover this small number.
UTEP +3.5 Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic has won two road games since Willie Taggart became head coach in 2020. They beat winless Florida International in 2020 and Charlotte in 2021. Charlotte finished with a respectable 5-7 record last season, but their defense was among the worst in FBS. This season, the Owls have already dropped two games as a road favorite, allowing over 40 points to both Ohio and North Texas. They edged Rice last week in the 'Owl Bowl', but averaged under four yards per play and scored 17 points at home. UTEP is off a bye and is playing at home where they have been dangerous over the past few seasons. The Miners put up back-to-back 1-11 records in Dana Dimel's first two season in El Paso (2018 and 2019). In those two seasons, they were just 2-7 ATS as a home underdog with zero outright wins. However, since the start of 2020, they are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog with three outright wins. I think they make it four this weekend.
Boise State +2.5 Air Force
A few weeks ago, it appeared Boise's run of Mountain West domination was over (I know the Broncos didn't even win their division, much less the conference last season, but Boise is the most well known Mountain West program and they have four titles since joining the league in 2011). The Broncos were 2-2 with non-competitive road losses to Oregon State and UTEP. The Broncos had scored six touchdowns in their first three games against FBS opponents and looked anemic on offense. Following the UTEP loss, they fired their offensive coordinator and installed former head coach Dirk Koetter as the interim OC. Koetter put a renewed emphasis on the running game and the Broncos rolled up over 600 yards on the ground in their next two games at over six and half yards per clip. Now Boise is 3-0 in the Mountain West and a game clear of Wyoming and Utah State in the division. Meanwhile, Air Force, a team with plausible designs on an unbeaten season, is 2-2 in league play and their division odds are nearly dead. The Falcons have been a disappointment thanks to their poor rush defense. Their four Mountain West opponents have rushed for 138 yards per game and averaged nearly five yards per carry against the Falcons defense. That includes their most recent showing against UNLV and their backup quarterback. Take that game away, and their other three opponents have rushed for 164 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry! Air Force upset Boise on the Smurf Turf last season, but the Broncos have won the past two games in Colorado Springs and this marks the first time the Falcons have been favored against the Broncos. I think Boise has turned things around and will be able to handle a flawed conference opponent on the road.
Utah State +4.5 Wyoming
He fooled us y'all. Despite his track record at Arkansas State, we panicked when Utah State struggled in the non-conference this season. Blake Anderson coached Arkansas State for seven seasons (2014-2020) and in that time, his regular season non-conference record was 11-15 (he even lost to an FCS team). Despite the routine rough starts, his teams went 38-18 once conference play started (36-12 his first six seasons). Last season, his first at Utah State, the Aggies went 3-1 in the non-conference and then rolled to a surprise conference title. This season, the Aggies struggled with Connecticut, got blown out by Alabama, and then lost at home to an FCS team (in blowout fashion). Two more losses followed as the Aggies dropped their conference opener to UNLV and then a rivalry game to BYU. However, the Aggies regrouped and have won two in a row over Air Force and Colorado State to move to 2-1 in Mountain West play. Now the Aggies have a chance to win their third in a row and even their overall record as they travel to Laramie to face Wyoming in Bridger's Battle. Wyoming has struggled to score for most of Craig Bohl's tenure when a certain NFL quarterback was not taking snaps for the Cowboys. In 2016 and 2017, when Josh Allen was the starting quarterback, Wyoming averaged nearly 30 points per game (29.9). in Bohl's other seven seasons in charge, the Cowboys have averaged almost exactly a touchdown less per game (22.8). Its hard to cover when you struggle to score. Take Utah State and points.
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