The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

With some good picks and a little luck, we finally posted another winning week. This moves our overall record back to .500. Hopefully more good fortune is in store. Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 21-21

Coastal Carolina -11 Old Dominion

Last week, in my write up of the Coastal/Louisiana-Monroe game, I mentioned Coastal is on a low-key incredible run of being favored in every game since their upset of BYU late in the 2020 season. I also noted the Chanticleers had not adapted to the role of favorite. Updating their ATS tally based on last week's results, Coastal drops to 7-12 ATS as a favorite since the streak began and 5-10 ATS as a double digit favorite. So naturally, they are the play this week. Unlike their previous large spreads, I think this one is actually warranted. Old Dominion has put up a good fight against their Power Five in-state opponents this season, beating Virginia Tech at home and narrowly losing to Virginia on the road. However, the Hokies and the Cavaliers significantly outplayed the Monarchs on a down to down basis, outgaining them by more than a yard per play (5.39 to 4.18). The games were close thanks to turnovers. The Monarchs forced eight in those two games while committing only three of their own. Those two close games are allowing you to buy Coastal at a bit of a discount. Barring an injury to Grayson McCall, Coastal is almost guaranteed to score north of 30 points in this game. The Chanticleers are averaging nearly 39 points per game at home since McCall became the starting quarterback at the beginning on the 2020 season. By contrast, Old Dominion has had a difficult time scoring points this season. The Monarchs are averaging just north of five yards per play and just under 22 points per game and have not faced an imposing set of defenses. I think this is the proverbial 'get right' game for Coastal as the Chanticleers improve to 7-0 and potentially break into the AP Poll for the third consecutive season.

Louisiana Tech +7 North Texas

Louisiana Tech and North Texas both put up 1-3 record in the non-conference, so this game is vital to their bowl hopes. At 2-3, a victory would even Louisiana Tech's record halfway through their first season under Sonny Cumbie and mean a split over their final six would get them to the postseason. North Texas is already 3-3, having played and won a conference game in Week Zero, but a loss here will likely keep them home for the holidays as they have road contests remaining with the three top teams in the conference (UAB, UTSA, and Western Kentucky). While the teams put up matching 1-3 marks in non-conference play, Louisiana Tech played the tougher schedule. Both squads knocked off their FCS opponent, but Louisiana Tech faced two Power Five teams on the road (Clemson and Missouri) as well as one of the better Sun Belt teams (South Alabama). Meanwhile, North Texas did not face a single Power Five team, losing to Memphis, SMU, and UNLV, with the in-state battle with the Mustangs coming at home. North Texas was a home underdog to a bad Florida Atlantic team two weeks ago. Now suddenly, we should trust them laying a full touchdown in a conference game? With that defense? These teams have played every year since joining Conference USA in 2013 and Louisiana Tech has won seven of the nine meetings, including all four in Denton (twice as an underdog). Since qualifying for the 2017 Conference USA Championship Game (and getting waxed by Florida Atlantic), North Texas has been a conference favorite of at least a touchdown eleven times. They are 4-11 ATS in those games. Take the Bulldogs to keep this one close.    

Southern Miss -4 Arkansas State

The season is almost halfway over, but the rest of it should be a breeze for Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have faced a low-key challenging schedule so far. Their five FBS opponents are a combined 16-7 with the Miami Hurricanes posting the worst record at 2-3. Southern Miss looked horrendous on offense in their last game as Troy limited them 205 total yards and under 3.5 yards per play. However, the Trojans have the best defense in the Sun Belt and one of the best defenses in the G5, especially at home. In their two Sun Belt home games, the Trojans have made two competent offenses (Marshall and Southern Miss) look like bad FCS teams, holding them to 17 total points and an absurd 2.9 yards per play. The going should get a little easier as the Golden Eagles return to Hattiesburg to face Arkansas State in a rematch of the 2005 New Orleans Bowl. The Red Wolves are better than they were last season, but that is not a high bar to clear. While they have already matched last year's Sun Belt win total (1), they have been outgained on a per play basis in all three games (aggregate total of nearly a yard and a half per play) and are 1-4 straight up in Sun Belt road games under Butch Jones. This spread implies Southern Miss would be favored by about a point at a neutral site. I think that undersells Southern Miss by about a field goal. I'm always a little hesitant in laying more than three, but I think Southern Miss wins this game by at least a touchdown. 

Nebraska +14 Purdue

Believe it or not, this is for a share of first place in the Big 10 West. After opening conference play with embarrassing and heartbreaking losses respectively, the Cornhuskers and Boilermakers have both won two conference games in a row to move into a first place tie with Illinois. A loss by Nebraska practically eliminates them from division title contention as they will likely be underdogs in their next five games. Purdue has a more navigable schedule, particularly the closing stretch with Northwestern and Indiana, so a loss will not necessarily preclude them from playing in their first ever conference title game. Purdue has won back to back road games as an underdog, an area where they have excelled under Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers are 20-10 ATS as an regular season underdog under Brohm with 13 outright wins. Meanwhile, they are 12-16 ATS as a regular season favorite with 12 outright losses! Purdue's consecutive road wins as an underdog have shifted the market too much. Nebraska is not as good as I thought they would be in the preseason, but they are good enough to keep this within two touchdowns. 

Utah -3.5 Southern Cal

It took some time for Utah to adjust to the rigors of a Pac-12 schedule. In their first seven seasons of Pac-12 play, the Utes actually posted a losing conference record in Salt Lake City (15-17)! However, since the start of the 2018 season (when they played in their first of three Pac-12 Championship Games), the Utes are 16-2 at home. One of those losses did come to Southern Cal in the pandemic shortened 2020 season, but in 'normal' regular seasons, the Utes are 14-1 at home in Pac-12 play since 2018. They have also won and covered all three meetings with the Trojans in Salt Lake City when they entered favored as they are in this game. Give credit to Southern Cal for starting the season 6-0, but this is by far their most significant road test. I think this spread tells you everything you need to know about the game. Southern Cal is unbeaten and ranked in the top ten, while Utah has two losses and is coming off a humbling defensive effort at UCLA. Yet the Utes are favored. I'll take Utah, even laying the hook to end Southern Cal's unbeaten run and make the Pac-12 race a little more interesting. 

Duke +7 North Carolina

After a brief absence, the ACC Wheel of Destiny has returned with a vengeance to the Coastal Division. North Carolina is all alone in first place with a half game lead over (checks notes) Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils lost to said Yellow Jackets last week, but can move into a first place tie by beating the Tar Heels on Saturday night. While the past two games in the series may have given you the impression that North Carolina has dominated it (wins by 32 and 31 points respectively), Duke covered in Chapel Hill (losing in overtime) three years ago and won in Durham in 2018. While North Carolina has moved the ball and scored seemingly at will since Mack Brown returned in 2019 (over 37 points per game), they have blown their fair share of games as a road favorite. The Tar Heels are 3-6-1 ATS as a road favorite in Brown's second stint, losing outright to four mediocre to bad teams in 2020 (Florida State and Virginia) and 2021 (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech). Heck, a month ago, these same Tar Heels were laying an identical number at Georgia State. North Carolina is going to score, but no lead is safe with their defense. The Tar Heels have won all three of their road games this season, but no victory has come by more than a touchdown. I expect a similar result here. Take Duke and the points. 

New Mexico State +6.5 New Mexico

On a weekend that features three matchups of unbeaten Power 5 teams taking place in the early and late afternoon window, this might be a good palette cleanser in the evening. Assuming of course you can find the game. It is being aired by something called Flo Sports, so check you local listings. While the two teams from the Land of Enchantment are a combined 3-9 in 2022, this is a legitimate rivalry, with the first contest taking place before New Mexico even became a state! To better compare these two teams, I think we should toss out their results against Power Five and FCS teams. Being ground into dust by Minnesota and Wisconsin doesn't really give us an idea about how New Mexico State will fare against a team in their own weight class. Similarly, New Mexico's visit to Baton Rouge and their opener against Maine tell us very little about the Lobos. Once we remove those games, and look at the per play data for both teams, its easy to make a case for the Aggies from Las Cruces. New Mexico State has faced four G5 teams and while they are 1-3 in those games, they have actually outgained their opponents on a per play basis (5.21 to 4.73). In those four games, the Aggies have been done in by turnovers (-7 margin). Meanwhile, New Mexico is also 1-3 in their four games against G5 opponents, but the Lobos have been outgained by more than a full yard per play (4.12 to 5.18). The Lobos have fared better in the turnover department (+3), with most of that work coming against UTEP when they forced the Miners to cough the ball up seven times. I should note New Mexico has faced a more challenging foursome of opponents (Boise State, UNLV, UTEP, and Wyoming) as compared to New Mexico State (Florida International, Hawaii, Nevada, and UTEP), but I don't understand how the Lobos can be laying nearly a full touchdown on the road. Danny Gonzales is in his third season as head coach of the Lobos and after a decent showing in the abbreviated 2020 campaign where they averaged nearly 24 points per game, the offense has disappeared. The offense averaged just over 12 points per game last season and is currently averaging a shade over 19 this season (15 per game against FBS opponents). You can't lay a lot points, especially on the road, with an offense like that. I know New Mexico State looked like trash in their most recent outing, losing at home to FIU, but off a bye and playing at home, they are the play in this dumpster dive.