The Magnificent Seven: Week II

We made some bad picks last week. But we also had some bad luck. If James Franklin had taken a knee like any sensible college football coach, we would have opened with a perfectly mediocre 3-3-1 record. Alas, he punched it in with five second left and we started off 2023 in the hole at 2-4-1. Alas, there are twelve more weeks or so to dig out of this hole. Let's get going. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 2-4-1

Overall: 2-4-1

NC State +7.5 Notre Dame

Notre Dame has been clinically efficient in their first two games, blasting Navy and Tennessee State by a combined score of 98-6. Now they face their first real test in Raleigh against a team they have a losing all-time record against (in just three games). The last time Notre Dame traveled to Raleigh, the elements played a pivotal role in the outcome with NC State slogging through a 10-3 victory. Brian Kelly infamously called for 26 passes in less than ideal conditions with those passes netting 54 total yards (excluding sacks). My bold prediction is that more than thirteen combined points will be scored this time. Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman has played three games against NC State as a member of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Hartman and the Deacons lost both games in Raleigh by small margins and won the one game in Winston-Salem in a similarly tight affair. Hartman is familiar with the NC State defense coordinated by Tony Gibson and the Wolfpack are familiar with Hartman, albeit in a completely different offense. However, despite the assumption that Notre Dame has more skill position talent than Wake Forest, I would make the argument Hartman may have downgraded at wide receiver by transferring to South Bend. The offensive line may be stronger in South Bend, but A.T. Perry and Jaquarii Roberson were special talents on the outside. I think NC State is a little undervalued after their workman like road victory against Connecticut. Sure you would like to see the offense do more against a Group of Five opponent, but the Wolfpack were never in danger of losing that game. I expect another close game between Hartman and NC State with the final margin falling within a touchdown either way. 

Northwestern +1.5 UTEP

I have to take this one out of principle. I refuse to accept that UTEP can be favored on the road against a Power Five team. Consider this: UTEP has won five road games since Dana Dimel arrived in El Paso in 2018. Those five teams (Charlotte, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, Southern Miss, and Rice) all lost at least nine games in the season UTEP defeated them. The quintet finished with a cumulative record of 10-49. The Miners did not do much better away from the west Texas town of El Paso under his predecessor Sean Kugler. During Kugler's tenure (2013-2017), the Miners also won five road games. The Miners did beat one quality opponent on the road (UTSA in 2016), but the other four were trash. Their combined record was 16-45. Northwestern is likely to finish with double digit losses, but the bottom of the Power Five is simply built different from the bottom of the Group of Five. If this game were in late November, Northwestern may have checked out on the season and I would be wary of backing them. But the season is young, and this is Northwestern's best shot at a victory until Howard comes to town the first Saturday in October. Remember, two weeks ago, UTEP lost to a team playing its first game as an FBS program. It won't be pretty, but Northwestern will win their first game on American soil in nearly two years. 

Appalachian State +18 North Carolina

North Carolina's defense was pretty bad last season, allowing nearly 31 points per game. Over the course of fourteen games last season, the team accumulated just 17 sacks and 51 tackles for loss. In their opener against South Carolina, the Tar Heels netted nine total sacks and sixteen tackles for loss. I don't want to overreact to one data point, but North Carolina may have the most prolific pass rush in college football history! Or at least that is what you might think after seeing this point spread. Yes, North Carolina looked quite impressive in their opener. Yes, Appalachian State struggled for three quarters of their tune up against Gardner-Webb. Yes, North Carolina is playing at home. But I think they are in a prime letdown/sandwich spot. Off that easier than expected victory against South Carolina, the Tar Heels host Minnesota next week. All that stands between them and a 2-0 start to the season is the plucky underdog from Boone. I guarantee the Mountaineers are motivated for this game against the premiere institution in the state. The Mountaineers have also performed quite well as a road underdog against Power Five opponents since joining FBS. They are just 3-6 straight up, but 6-3 ATS having covered their past five games (winning two outright). Appalachian State will be able to protect their quarterback and score enough to stay within this number. 

Boise State +3.5 Central Florida

There is nothing I like better than grabbing a team out of the trash. And Boise State fits that description perfectly. After a solid opening stanza against Washington, the Broncos were decimated by Michael Penix and the Huskie passing attack. Penix threw for 450 yards and five touchdowns as Washington dropped 56 on the Broncos. In an eerie bit of symmetry, Central Florida also scored 56 points albeit against a woeful Kent State team. Playing their first game as a member of the Big 12, the Knights topped 300 yards on the ground and through the air against the Golden Flashes. It was an impressive exhibition, but the difficulty ratchets up significantly as the Knights head west to take on the Broncos. The Knights have not fared well as a favorite since Gus Malzahn replaced Josh Heupel as head coach, posting an 8-11 ATS record in the role with five outright losses. These teams could not have looked more different in the opener, but Boise was facing a fringe top ten team on the road, while Central Florida was a facing one of the five worst teams in FBS at home. Boise State has been a home underdog just four previous times this century. They are just 1-3 ATS in that limited sample, but every team that was favored on the Smurf Turf was either ranked at the time (BYU number nine in 2020, Fresno State number 16 in 2018, Boston College number 19 in 2005) or headed for a top ten finish (Washington State in 2001). Central Florida is poised to have the best debut of the four new Big 12 members, but I don't foresee a ranked finish in their future. Take the Broncos to get back on track. 

Temple +9 Rutgers

Thirty years ago, these teams were bottom dwellers in the Big East. The Big East began playing a true full conference schedule in 1993 and neither the Owls nor the Scarlet Knights posted a winning conference record for more than a decade. Temple was infamously booted from the league after the 2004 season. The Owls bounced around as an Independent before joining the MAC and later returning to the Big East before that league became the AAC. Meanwhile, Rutgers finally posted a winning season in 2005 under Greg Schiano, their current coach. Schiano took the program to great (relative) heights before leaving for the NFL. The team floundered after his departure which also coincided with their move to a stronger conference. Rutgers brought him back in 2020 and his second act has not exactly been Bill Snyder-esque. Rutgers is just 13-22, although they did play in a bowl game, thanks to the cowards at Texas A&M. Offense has been a real problem for Rutgers, particularly post-Covid. Since the start of the 2021 season, Rutgers has averaged less than 20 points per game. In that span, they have played 25 games against FBS opponents and been held below twenty points, seventeen times. Logically, if a team has trouble scoring, they might have trouble covering a big number. I think that will be the case in this spot. Temple quietly improved over the course of Stan Drayton's first season. The Owls were underdogs against every FBS opponent they played last season, but managed a solid 7-4 ATS mark as an underdog, including a blistering 5-1 down the stretch. Rutgers put up less than 300 total yards in their opener against a team that I'll remind you is a home underdog to UTEP! Take the Owls to keep this one close and potentially eke out their second win of the year. 

Cal +6.5 Auburn

This classic rivalry between ACC and SEC schools is being played for the...checks notes...first time ever? Auburn is making a rare visit to the west coast as this is their first road game in California since they opened the 2002 season against Pete Carroll's first great Trojan team. Both the Bears and Tigers looked especially strong in their openers. As expected, Auburn dominated the Minutemen from Massachusetts, while Cal scored a surprisingly easy road win against a trendy underdog in North Texas. Cal scored 58 points against the Mean Green, their most in a game under head coach Justin Wilcox. The Bears are just 10-18 over the past three seasons and the preseason prognosticators did not foresee much improvement in 2023. While the betting markets expected Cal to beat North Texas, I think even casual college football fans were shocked by how it went down. Cal has been a defense first team under Wilcox, so a tight 20-14 or 24-21 victory would have been more in line with expectations. I don't think Cal will lead the nation in scoring this season, but that result, even against a team that may end up with a pretty poor record, is cause for mild optimism. Can the Bears keep it going as a home underdog? I think so. Cal is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog under Wilcox with six outright victories. Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze is just 13-16 ATS as a road favorite at Arkansas State, Ole Miss, and Liberty. SEC teams rarely travel out west and I think that is not properly accounted for in the betting line. Take the Bears to put a scare into the Tigers. 

Stanford +29.5 Southern Cal

To contextualize how low preseason expectations were for Stanford, consider their win total. When I was in Las Vegas in July, I found a 2.5 number at a few books. The Cardinal had both Hawaii (a rebuilding Group of Five team) and Sacramento State (an FCS power and former employer of their current head coach). If the Cardinal won both those games (and assuming they lost to Notre Dame), they would need to finish winless in the Pac-12 to go under that win total. Colorado was perhaps the worst Power Five team last season (Northwestern was also in consideration) and the Buffaloes managed to win a Pac-12 game. Most of the podcasts I listened to in the offseason seemed to agree Stanford was in for a rough season. And they may still be (look at this spread after all). However, I watched most of their opener against Hawaii and saw a few bright spots. Tight end Benjamin Yurosek gained over 100 yards and seemed ready to follow in the solid tight end lineage Stanford has produced in the past decade or so (Zach Ertz, Coby Fleener, Austin Hooper, Colby Parkinson, and Dalton Schultz to name a few). At worst, Stanford seems like they will be able to move the ball better than they have the past two seasons, when they have averaged right around 21 points per game. They will need to do so against a Southern Cal team that has put up 122 points in their first two games. The Trojans could certainly get to 60 against a rebuilding Stanford team, but Southern Cal has not proven they have taken another step forward on defense. San Jose State put up four touchdowns on them in The Coliseum before having the life squeezed out of their offense by Oregon State. I don't think Southern Cal will be able to get enough stops to win by four touchdowns. Plus, if you look at the series history, Stanford has played well in this role. Since 2004, the Cardinal have been double digit underdogs to Southern Cal seven times. They are an amazing 3-4 straight up in those games and 6-1 ATS! They are also 5-4 straight up on the road and 6-3 ATS in the recent history of this series. Stanford won't threaten to win this game, but this is way too many points.