Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 9-11-1
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Tulsa +4 Northern Illinois
Alarm bells sounded in my head when I saw this line. I think the wrong team is favored here. First off, we have a MAC school (and one that lost to an FCS team) laying points against a team from the American. Granted, Tulsa will probably finish near the bottom of the American standings, but the point remains. In addition, the betting market is undervaluing Tulsa because they have been pounded the past two weeks. The Golden Hurricane have dropped games to Washington and Oklahoma by a combined 82 points. However, the Huskies and Sooners are both ranked in the top 20 of the most recent edition of the AP Poll and are both in the top eleven of ESPN's Football Power Index rating system. Unlie Tulsa, Northern Illinois has beaten a Power Five team this season. The Huskies knocked off Boston College in their opener. However, that Boston College team started Emmett Morehead at quarterback before switching to Thomas Castellanos. The infinitely more mobile Castellanos led the Eagles all the way back before they lost in overtime. Starting Morehead in that game may end up costing Jeff Hafley his job if the Eagles are not able to find six wins on their schedule and it is artificially inflating Northern Illinois in the betting market. Finally, the Huskies have been a poor investment as a home favorite. Under Thomas Hammock, they are 1-7 ATS in the role. These two teams faced off last season with Tulsa winning (and failing to cover) as about a touchdown favorite. This spread has moved roughly eleven points in the opposite direction in one year. Obviously roughly half of that is accounted for by the change in venue from Tulsa to DeKalb, but I'm shocked the Huskies are favored in this spot. Take the Golden Hurricane to easily cover and win outright.
Rice -2.5 South Florida
It takes a lot of guts to back Rice as a road favorite. Head coach Mike Bloomgren is in his sixth season as the private school and the Owls are just 6-22 in true road games. However, those road numbers deserve some context. Six of those games have come against Power Five teams where the Owls were prohibitive underdogs. In road games against similar teams, the Owls have fared better, especially over the past three seasons. Since the start of 2020, the Owls are 4-7 in road conference games. They won't hang any banners for that performance, but it shows the Owls are much more competitive than they were at the beginning of Bloomgren's tenure. And while Rice has seen their share of struggles on the road, South Florida has struggled no matter the venue. Since the start of the 2020 season, the Bulls have beaten one FBS team. Give them credit for for going 4-0 against FCS foes in that span, but against even the bottom rung of FBS, the Bulls have failed to deliver. They have covered some big numbers at home, including last week against Alabama, but only one of their numerous home losses since 2020 would have covered this small number. You are getting Rice at a discount since South Florida was competitive against Alabama last week in a game the Bulls were extremely motivated for. Will we see the same focus after the Bulls shot their proverbial wad last week against the preeminent college football program of the past fifteen years? I have my doubts. Meanwhile Rice has a shot at getting to a bowl game (legitimately) this season. Including South Florida, there are five or six winnable games left on this slate. Rice has not finished with more than five regular season wins since 2014, but they'll be halfway to bowl eligibility after Saturday.
Eastern Michigan +6.5 Jacksonville State
Last week, I faded Eastern Michigan as a home favorite, and what do you know, the Eagles needed a late comeback to beat Massachusetts. Now the Eagles are catching nearly a touchdown against a team playing its fourth game as an FBS team. While the Gamecocks are 2-1, their victories have come against UTEP and East Tennessee State. The Gamecocks scored 49 points against East Tennessee State, but they have managed just 33 total points in their two games against FBS competition. I expect the Gamecocks to slightly exceed that average against a below average Eastern Michigan defense, but the over/under in this game (currently 52.5) implies they will score about 29 points. I don't think they will get to that number. Plus Eastern Michigan has been a veritable ATM as a road underdog under Chris Creighton. The Eagles are 30-13-1 ATS in the role under Creighton, including 25-6 since 2016. And this is not a function of them covering massive spreads against Power Five opponents. No sir. The Eagles are 23-8-1 as a road underdog against Group of Five opponents (19-3 since 2016) with eleven outright wins. I think the Eagles make it an even dozen on Saturday.
Sam Houston State +12 Houston
Is Houston bad? The Cougars edged UTSA in their opener, but have lost to Rice and TCU the past two weeks. In the Rice game, they needed to stage a furious rally to force overtime. Against a TCU team that allowed 45 points and 565 yards to Colorado in Fort Worth, the Cougars managed just 266 yards and 13 points in Houston. Their only touchdown came on a kickoff return. Its hard to cover double digits when you can't score. Of course, Sam Houston State has not exactly set scoreboards aflame in their first season as an FBS team. The Bearkats have covered each of their first two games at the FBS level despite scoring three total points. Off an early bye, I think they score their first touchdown in FBS play and put a scare into Houston. Under Dana Holgorsen, the Cougars have performed poorly as a home favorite, posting a 3-8 ATS record, including 1-6 ATS as a double digit home favorite. The hot seat under Holgorsen will get a little warmer on Saturday.
Colorado State +3 Middle Tennessee State
Both these teams came close to knocking off unbeaten Power Five opponents. Middle Tennessee hung with Missouri two weeks ago, losing 23-19. Meanwhile, Colorado State allowed Colorado to march the length of the field and force overtime last week in a wild Pac-12 after dark affair. If you are playing amateur psychologist, you might think Colorado State will come out flat after losing to their in-state big brother. However, the last five times they fell to the Buffaloes, the Rams have won their next game, including 2018 when they upset Arkansas. After narrowly losing to Missouri, Middle Tennessee pounded Murray State last week. I think that victory and their close loss to the Tigers is artificially inflating the Blue Raiders. Colorado State has not had the chance to pad their numbers against an FCS opponent (they get that opportunity next week). Despite a few mistakes, the Rams seem to have found their quarterback. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has averaged over eight and a half yards per pass against two Power Five defenses. Why he didn't get the start against Washington State is anyone's guess. If Colorado State can avoid the bonehead penalties that doomed them against Colorado, they should leave Murfreesboro with their first win of the season.
Arkansas +17.5 LSU
If these two teams played last week, I think this number would have been under two touchdowns. Consequently, I think there is some value on Arkansas. The Razorbacks lost at home to BYU despite outgaining the Cougars by nearly 150 yards and nearly a yard per play. The Cougars started three scoring drives on the Arkansas side of the field and added another touchdown drive of just 53 yards after a poor punt. Meanwhile, LSU dominated what may wind up being a very bad Mississippi State team. The Bulldogs are transitioning from the Air Raid and managed just over 200 total yards against LSU. You need only look back a few weeks to see that LSU's defense is probably not quite that elite. A good, but perhaps not great, Florida State team scored 45 points and averaged nearly seven and a half yards per snap against them. And lest we forget, LSU was a below average SEC defense in terms of yards per play last season. No team is as good as they look one week (LSU) or as bad as they look the next (Arkansas). I expect the Razorbacks to rebound and put up a good fight in this spot. Under Sam Pittman, they are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog, including 4-2 ATS as a double digit underdog. In addition, while Arkansas is just 1-2 versus LSU under Pittman, all three games have been decided by a field goal. I expect another close one on Saturday.
Utah State +5.5 James Madison
I was on Utah State last week and the Aggies were run over by Air Force in a mostly non-competitive game. I think they are in a good spot this week though. James Madison is 3-0 (and 11-3 since joining FBS last season), but their last two victories have come by the skin of their teeth. The Dukes beat Virginia by a point two weeks ago, despite being outgained by the Cavaliers on a per play basis (6.48 to 5.98). They upset Troy by two last week despite being outgained by a similar margin (4.94 to 4.46). The Dukes did not turn the ball over in either game and made all their field goals, while the Cavaliers and Trojans each committed a turnover and the Trojans missed a field goal. Virginia is a Power Five team and Troy won the Sun Belt and finished ranked in the final AP Poll last season, so the Dukes value is a little inflated. This is also their third consecutive road game before they resume conference play against South Alabama next week. Utah State has been erratic under Blake Anderson, winning their first seven true road games while losing five of their first eight homes games. Even this season, the Aggies held their own against Iowa before crapping their pants against Air Force. This number is too high and James Madison is in a rough situational spot. I'll take Utah State and their high variance to keep this one close.
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