The Magnificent Seven: Week III

We had a decent showing last week, finally winning more than we lost and nearly evening our yearlong record. We'll try and do the same this week. I even managed to find a few favorites to throw on the card. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 6-7-1

Utah State +9 Air Force

Utah State followed up their surprising 2021 Mountain West title with a somewhat disappointing campaign. Despite eventually qualifying for a bowl, the Aggies began 2022 by losing four of their first five games, including a home blowout loss to an FCS team. The Aggies won five of seven down the stretch (beginning with a home upset of Air Force) to get to 6-6, but when factoring their bowl loss to Memphis into the equation, they were outscored by more than 100 total points last season. Consequently, not much was expected of them heading into 2023. However, through two games, the Aggies have overachieved. They covered as massive underdogs at Iowa, even outgaining the Hawkeyes in both total yards and yards per play. They then dominated Idaho State of the FCS one week after the Bengals played a tight game with San Diego State. I don't like to read too much into FCS blowouts, but Utah State scored 78 points last week; the first time they topped 70 since 2018. Coincidentally, the last time they scored at least 70 points, their next opponent was...Air Force. Speaking of the Falcons, while they are 2-0 and have allowed just ten points on the year, they did not look great in a defensive struggle with Sam Houston State last week. I don't expect another defense dominated game this week. The Mountain West began divisional play in 2013 and with the Aggies and Falcons both occupying the former Mountain Division (the conference scrapped divisions this year), they have played each of the past ten years. If we remove the two years when Gary Andersen returned (2019 and 2020), the Aggies have averaged nearly 37 points per game against the Falcons (topping 30 points six times) and have won five of eight. Utah State will score regularly in this game and I wouldn't be shocked if they leave Colorado Springs with an outright win. 

Indiana +10 Louisville (@ Indianapolis)

Jeff Brohm may have left Purdue, but he has not yet been able to escape his former rivals in Bloomington. During his Purdue tenure, Brohm enjoyed good success in the Old Oaken Bucket rivalry, winning four of five. The last two were not competitive, with the Boilermakers winning by 37 and 14 respectively, but the first three in the series were decided by a touchdown or less. Thanks to their schedule, Louisville was a sleeper team in the ACC heading into 2023. However, they needed a second half surge to put away Georgia Tech in the opener. The Yellow Jackets averaged nearly seven yards per play against the rebuilding Louisville defense, their most against a Power Five opponent in nearly two years. The Cardinals rebounded to put the clamps on Murray State last week, but I don't think the defensive issues are solved. Speaking of defense, Indiana may be able to offer something on that side of the ball. Head coach Tom Allen is a former defensive coordinator and after allowing over thirty points per game each of the past two seasons, the Hoosiers held Ohio State to 23 points in the opener. Ohio State was breaking in a new quarterback, but the receiving corp, headlined by Marvin Harrison Jr., was held in check by the Indiana secondary. This version of Indiana may not be good enough to get back to a bowl, but they can ugly up the game enough to cover some big spreads. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, teams coached by Brohm are much better as underdogs than as favorites. In the regular season, his teams are 21-11 ATS as underdogs and just 13-20 ATS as favorites, including 6-9 as a double digit favorite. Take the Hooisers to keep this one close against their old rival. 

Iowa State -3 Ohio

I think the betting public is a little too down on Iowa State after their tumultuous summer. I think the Cyclones have exceeded expectations somewhat through their first two games. They dispatched Northern Iowa with ease in the opener, which is something previous iterations of this team have not always done. And they lost a defense struggle to Iowa. The Cyclones are 1-6 against Iowa under Matt Campbell, including 0-4 in Ames. Now they are the smallest of favorites on the road against a MAC team in what should be another low-scoring affair. Ohio has put together three solid defensive showings thus far, holding each of their first three opponents to twenty points or less. However, those teams are the habitually low-scoring San Diego State Aztecs, Long Island of the FCS, and Florida Atlantic. Despite the strong defensive performance, the formerly prolific Bobcat offense has sputtered, even with the return of Kurtis Rourke last week. Ohio managed just seventeen points against the Owls and averaged under five yards per play. I don't think their offense will get in gear against an Iowa State defense that held them to ten points last year and has allowed just two offensive touchdowns through two games. Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State is 6-1 against Group of Five opponents (5-2 ATS) with their lone loss coming to Louisiana-Lafayette at the beginning of the Covid season. Their five victories have all come by at least thirteen points and two of those victories came on the road. You are getting Iowa State at a solid discount. This spread should be closer to a touchdown and I think Iowa State wins this game handily (two touchdowns or more) a decent percentage of time. 

Massachusetts +7.5 Eastern Michigan

In the offseason, I paid homage to Chris Creighton and his success at Eastern Michigan. Creighton has turned the formerly moribund program into a consistent bowl participant in the MAC. He has also beaten his share of Power Five opponents and been great as an underdog. However, one thing he has not done is cover as a favorite. The splits are uncanny. In regular season games as an underdog under Creighton, the Eagles are 41-23-2 ATS (33-10-1 since 2016) with twenty two outright wins. As a favorite in the regular season, the Eagles are 10-16 ATS with eleven outright losses. The Eagles have been particularly bad as a home favorite, going just 5-12 ATS under Creighton with eight outright losses. Their opponent in this game has been a perfect barometer for Eastern Michigan's failure as a favorite. They have faced off each of the past two seasons, with Eastern Michigan being heavily favored in both. They Eagles won each game, but did not cover in either. History seems to be repeating itself in 2023, with the only difference being this Eastern Michigan team might actually be bad. The Eagles needed two kickoff return touchdowns to hold off Howard in their opener and averaged under five yards per play against the Bison. Then, despite their previous bona fides against Power Five teams, the Eagles did not put up much of a fight against Minnesota last week. The Eagles covered, but were never in position to win or put a scare into the Golden Gophers. I expect the Eagles to have their best offensive performance of the season against the porous Massachusetts defense, but the Minutemen have shown enough of a pulse on offense to keep this game within the number. 

Louisiana Tech -4.5 North Texas

I try not to jump to conclusions after one game, but I did last week. I was effusive in my praise of Cal after they dropped 58 points on North Texas in their opener. I expected them to move the ball and upset Auburn last week. The Bears covered, but they scored ten points. After allowing 58 points to Cal, North Texas continued to sully the name of Mean Joe Greene by allowing 46 points to Florida International. The 58 points Cal scored marked their high water mark under Justin Wilcox and the 46 points Florida International scored marked their highest point total in the short tenure of Mike MacIntyre. For reference, Louisiana Tech has topped out at 52 points under Sonny Cumbie. Can the Bulldogs get close to that number? I think so. As I mentioned a few lines up, Florida International scored 46 points against North Texas. They did that one week after scoring 14 points against Maine! Louisiana Tech does not play much defense, so I expect a high scoring affair (the over/under is currently at a nice 69), but a few stops are all they should need to cover this number against one of the worst defenses in FBS. 

New Mexico -1.5 New Mexico State

I don't want to put too much pressure on Danny Gonzales, and truth be told, I doubt my readership can turn the heat up on the New Mexico football boosters, but Gonzales probably needs to win this game to keep his job. Two games into his fourth season in Albuquerque, the Lobos are 8-25, with three of those victories coming against FCS opponents. His offenses have been among the worst in college football, averaging under two touchdowns per game in both 2021 and 2022. However, his hire of Bryant Vincent (UAB interim coach) as his offensive coordinator and the subsequent transfer of Dylan Hopkins from the Blazers might be enough to keep him employed. It was just an FCS team, but the Lobos scored 56 points against Tennessee Tech last week. It was their most in a game under Gonzales and if the offense can move from atrocious to slightly below average, there are wins to be had on this schedule. New Mexico State, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Nevada, and UNLV populate the remaining schedule. While it may not be feasible for the Lobos to sweep that quintet and get to a bowl, winning four or five games may earn Gonzales another year on the job. Based on early returns, I think the Lobos are the better team, so playing at home, with a spread under a field goal, they are the play. 

Arizona -18 UTEP

Arizona opens Pac-12 play next week with a road trip to Stanford, so there is a potential danger of them looking past UTEP. However, the Wildcats have not posted a winning season since 2017, so I think they will be ready to take care of am overmatched foe at home. Arizona wide receiver, and former UTEP star, Jacob Cowing has yet to really break out in 2023, catching ten balls for just 69 yards through two games. Cowing averaged over twelve yards per reception last season for Arizona and nearly twenty yards per reception for the Miners in 2021. Despite Cowing's disappointing numbers and quarterback Jayden De Laura's inconsistent play, the Wildcats have acquitted themselves well in the early going. They dominated Northern Arizona in the opener (a team that beat them in 2021) and went to overtime against an SEC team on the road despite losing the turnover margin by four. While I was high on UTEP in the offseason, they have not been very good through a quarter of their 2023 campaign. They beat a good FCS team at home, but on the road they have managed fourteen and seven points against a team playing their first game as an FBS program and the worst team in the Big 10. How many points are they scoring in Tucson on Saturday night? If they get to seventeen, which I think may be overly optimistic, can they hold Arizona under 35? Maybe De Laura has another big turnover game and keeps the Miners close, but I think he got that out of his system last week (at least for a few games) and the Wildcats will roll in this spot.