The Magnificent Seven: Week XI

Whatever optimism we built up the week prior dissipated last week. Oh well. There's always next year. 

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 28-41-1

Wake Forest +2.5 NC State

As a Wake Forest fan and alum, I have watched portions of every game in this series for at least the past quarter century. And anecdotally, it always seemed like the home team managed to win. When I fact-checked those numbers, that was indeed the case. Since 1996, Wake Forest has won twice in Raleigh (2006 and 2018). Since 1997, NC State has won twice in Winston-Salem (2001 and 2015). Thus, in the past 27 games in this series, the home team is an incredible 23-4! I think there is a good chance that trend continues on Saturday. Wake Forest played one of their best games on the season offensively on the road at Duke last week. The team netted just 21 points, but they racked up 400 yards of total offense and averaged over six yards per play for the first time since their second game of the year against Vanderbilt. Missed kicks and costly turnovers did them in against a quality Duke squad. Meanwhile, NC State is probably a little overvalued after winning back to back home games as an underdog against Clemson and Miami. The Wolfpack are 22-4 straight up in Raleigh since the start of the 2020 season. The road has been much less hospitable (6-9 in road ACC games in that span). I expect a tight game where points are at a premium, so take the underdog. 

Appalachian State +2 Georgia State

Its been a rough year for the Mountaineers from Boone. Their defense has been uncharacteristically poor and has let them down on numerous occasions. Despite their defensive struggles, the Mountaineers have been in almost every game and still have an outside shot at winning the Sun Belt. Each of their four losses has come by a touchdown or less, and the Mountaineers led in three of those losses in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Georgia State has hit a rough patch after a solid start. The Panthers have lost two in a row and four of six after a 4-0 start. A closer look reveals the schedule is the likely culprit. In their first three games, Georgia State beat Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Charlotte. Those squads have combined for three victories against FBS teams. Their fourth victory was legitimately impressive, as they won at Coastal Carolina. Based on recent results though, that was before the Chanticleers got rolling under first year head coach Tim Beck. Appalachian State has dominated this series, winning all nine meetings since joining the Sun Belt in 2014 with eight of the wins (including each one in Atlanta) coming by double digits. This is also the first time Georgia State has been favored in this series. These teams appear to be trending in opposite directions and the series history makes the Mountaineers the pick. 

Missouri +1.5 Tennessee

I don't quite understand this spread. Missouri has only lost two games all season (Georgia and LSU) and the Tigers were competitive in both defeats. The Tigers have also been dominant in their league victories, with all three of their SEC wins coming by double digits. Meanwhile, Tennessee has dropped two of their three SEC road games. The loss to Alabama is understandable, but losing in The Swamp to Florida would make me wary of backing this team away from Knoxville. As expected, with the loss of Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt, the Vols have not been as explosive offensively. Last season, against SEC foes, they averaged over 43 points per game. This season, those numbers are a much more mortal 26 per game. The Vols can still dominate overmatched opponents. Witness their scoring averages against Austin Peay, Connecticut, UTSA, and Virginia (nearly 46 points per game), but they are right around average against SEC opponents. Take the Tigers to pull off this slight upset. 

Coastal Carolina +1.5 Texas State

I'm glad Texas State will be playing in a bowl game for the first time in their brief history as an FBS program. However, are we giving them a little too much respect in this spot? After dropping their first two Sun Belt games to Georgia State and Georgia Southern, the Chanticleers have reeled off four consecutive victories and have a decent chance to get back to the Sun Belt Championship Game. Actually winning that game may prove to be a trifle difficult, so perhaps they can root for James Madison to win their NCAA appeal. But I digress. The Chanticleers have done this despite losing supernova quarterback Grayson McCall to an injury three weeks ago. Without McCall, the Chanticleers put up over 400 yards in each of their next two games and scored 62 combined points. Texas State has a winning Sun Belt record (3-2), but they are actually slightly underwater in terms of Net YPP in league play (- .05). Meanwhile, Coastal has outgained their Sun Belt opponents by nearly a yard per play (+ 0.97). The wrong team is favored here. 

Cal -1.5 Washington State

Washington State is leaking oil. After beginning the year 4-0, the Cougars have dropped five in a row. A few of the losses are understandable. Road trips to UCLA and Oregon were tough as was a home date with Arizona. However, their two most recent defeats (at Arizona State and home to Stanford) were bad. The Cougars managed just seven points against a woeful Stanford defense and now need to win two of their final three games to even qualify for a bowl. Their opponent in this game, Cal, will likely miss out on a bowl for the fourth consecutive season as they have dropped four in a row to fall to 3-6. In fairness though, four of their six losses have come to teams currently ranked in the top fifteen of the College Football Playoff Rankings. The other two came to Southern Cal and an SEC school (Auburn). I don't like laying points with Cal, but this number is too low to not back the Bears. 

TCU +10 Texas

Since joining the Big 12 in 2012 and getting an annual shot at their big brother, TCU has performed quite well against the marquee football program in Texas. The Horned Frogs are 8-3 both straight up and ATS against the Longhorns. Coming off an appearance in the College Football Playoff (something Texas has yet to accomplish), the Horned Frogs have struggled. They opened the season by faceplanting against Colorado, then won three in a row to temporarily right the ship. However, since beating a pretty good SMU team, the Horned Frogs have dropped four of five and are in danger of missing out on the postseason entirely. However, three of those four losses came away from Fort Worth. Returning to the friendly confines, I think TCU will put up a fight in the last game they will play against Texas for the foreseeable future. The Longhorns are just 7-9 straight up in road or neutral field games under Steve Sarkisian. Would a close victory or even a loss to the Horned Frogs really surprise you? 

San Jose State +1 Fresno State

San Jose State faced an arduous early season schedule. The Spartans played Southern Cal, Toledo, and Boise State on the road while hosting Oregon State and Air Force. They lost all five of those games (the Toledo and Boise games were close) and were 1-5 halfway through the season. However, once the schedule eased up, the Spartans surged. They have dominated their past three opponents, winning by a combined margin of 129-45. Neither of those three teams (New Mexico, Utah State, and Hawaii) are much to write home about, but I think we can learn something from that domination. Now, the Spartans not only have a chance to get to a second consecutive bowl game, but they also have an outside shot at getting to the Mountain West Championship Game as two of the teams ahead of them in the standings (Fresno State and UNLV) are still on the schedule. While San Jose State had a rough start to 2023, Fresno won their first five games and earned a spot in the AP Poll. They dropped a game at Wyoming (who hasn't?), but have won three in a row and have eyes on a second consecutive berth in the Mountain West Championship Game. As someone who has watched a great deal of Fresno State games and is holding a soon to be worthless under 8.5 wins ticket, the Bulldogs are not that good. However, they have made the plays when it counted, posting a 5-1 record in close games. Their past three victories have all come by a touchdown or less and the Bulldogs are +5 in turnover margin in those three games. The ball will eventually stop bouncing Fresno's way and I think it starts Saturday night.