Last Week: 6-1
Overall: 34-42-1
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Appalachian State +10 James Madison
After back-to-back losses dropped them to 3-4 overall, Appalachian State has won three in a row and the Mountaineers have an outside shot at getting to the Sun Belt Championship Game. The defensive issues that plagued them in their first eight games (allowed nearly 31 points per game) have dissipated somewhat. The Mountaineers have allowed just 23 points in their past two games; easy victories against Marshall and Georgia State. Now they travel to Harrisonburg (along with College Game Day) to face the unbeaten James Madison Dukes. The Dukes crept into the AP Poll last season after a 5-0 start, but their stay was brief as they were knocked off by Georgia Southern the very next week. Their stay has been a little longer this season, as they enter their fourth week as a ranked team. The Dukes have dominated their past two opponents, beating Georgia State and Connecticut by a combined score of 86-20. However, the Dukes have played their share of tight games this season. Five of their ten wins have come by one-score, including three by a field goal or less. While James Madison has been clutch in their brief run as an FBS program (7-1 record in one-score games), Appalachian State has struggled in close games under Shawn Clark. Clark took over the Mountaineer program before the 2020 season and in his nearly four years in charge, they are just 7-12 in one-score games. However, it should be noted the Mountaineers have only lost 17 total games under Clark, meaning they usually keep games close. In fact, nine of their past ten losses have been by one-score. That makes them an ideal team to back as an underdog, especially one catching double-digits. James Madison will be able to move the ball and score against this defense that is not up to previous standards in Boone. However, the Mountaineers have one of the best quarterback in the Sun Belt (Joey Aguilar) and should be able to score enough to keep this one close. The Mountaineers have also done a great job at protecting Aguilar this season (just 13 sacks allowed) and should be able to neutralize one of James Madison's biggest strengths. The Dukes lead the nation with 43 sacks this season, but as I mentioned, the Mountaineers protect their quarterback well and James Madison will be without the services of Jalen Green, who has 15.5 sacks on the season. I expect a tight game worthy of College Game Day on Saturday.
Hawaii +13.5 Wyoming
Wyoming's season started with such potential. The Cowboys upset Texas Tech in Laramie in their opener and won five of their first six games. They lost a tight game with Air Force, but had their bye after their battle with the Falcons. With just one conference loss, the Cowboys were contenders in the Mountain West. However, since returning from their bye, the Cowboys have dropped two of three and have struggled moving the ball. The Cowboys are averaging under 22 points per game in Mountain West play and have scored just 45 total points in the three games since their bye. The defense has also regressed. Boise State and UNLV torched their secondary (combined to average ten yards per pass) while Air Force and New Mexico shredded them on the ground (nearly 600 combined rushing yards). Needless to say, this is not the profile of a team you want to back laying double-digits. Hawaii has quietly won two in a row to move to 4-7 in Timmy Chang's second season in charge at his alma mater. These teams seem to be headed in opposite directions and while Wyoming should be favored, they should not be laying two touchdowns. Take the Warriors to keep this one close.
North Texas -2.5 Tulsa
A pair of 3-7 teams under first year coaches play their penultimate regular season game on Saturday. This is definitely not the biggest game in the mid-afternoon window, but it might be one of the most high scoring. North Texas averages just over 33 points per game on offense and allows nearly 38 per game on defense. The current over/under on this game is just 66, so betting on a shootout might be a good play as well. The Mean Green have lost four in a row to end their dreams of a winning season, but all four losses have come to the cream of the crop in the AAC. Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, and SMU are a combined 32-8 overall and an amazing 23-1 in AAC play! Plus, North Texas was competitive in three of the four games, losing to Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA each by one possession. Their most recent game against SMU was more of a struggle, but I think that has served to artificially lower the price of the Mean Green in this spot. Tulsa is also 3-7, but the Golden Hurricane have lost five in a row, and while two of those defeats came to SMU and Tulane, the other three were Florida Atlantic, Rice, and Charlotte. North Texas is the better team and is laying less than a field goal, so they are the play.
Sam Houston State +13 Western Kentucky
Despite what the betting market may believe, this is not the Western Kentucky team from 2021. That team featured an incredible Group of Five offense. Turnovers and close game variance are the only reasons they did not break through, win Conference USA, and potentially finish with a number beside their name in the AP Poll. To put that team's offensive numbers in the proper context, consider this: Western Kentucky faced ten FBS Group of Five teams (in other words, teams in Western Kentucky's weight class) in the regular season in 2021. They scored at least 30 points in all ten games. Here is how often they scored thirty or more against Group of Five opponents in the other four seasons Tyson Helton has been in charge.
2019: two times in nine games
2020: two times in nine games
2022: six times in ten games
2023: three times in eight games
Without Bailey Zappe and Zach Kittley, the offense degraded in 2022 and the trend has continued in 2023. The Hilltoppers have failed to score 30 points in each of their past four games (1-3 record) and are going to end up throwing for about half as many touchdown passes as they did in 2021 (63). If the Hilltoppers struggle getting to 30, it stands to reason they will have a hard time covering this big number, even against an FBS neophyte. Sam Houston State has struggled in their first season as an FBS program, losing their first eight games before knocking off Kennesaw State two weeks ago. They followed that win up with a road win at Louisiana Tech and are looking to close their maiden voyage in FBS on a strong note. The Bearkats were terrible on offense in the early going, managing just ten points in their first three games. However, once conference play began, the offense, while still below average, has managed to score multiple touchdowns. The Bearkats have averaged just under 27 points per game in league play and have lost four conference games by a touchdown or less. Western Kentucky should not be laying this many points. Take the Bearkats and the points.
New Mexico State +24 Auburn
This is not a true So Con Saturday game, but spiritually, it fits the bill. Auburn preps for their Iron Bowl game with Alabama by facing a Conference USA squad that has not only clinched their second consecutive bowl game, but also an appearance in the Conference USA Championship Game. New Mexico State, under second year head coach Jerry Kill, lost at home to Massachusetts to open the season and appeared poised for a step back after last season's Quick Lane Bowl victory. Since that loss, the Aggies have won eight of ten with diminutive quarterback Diego Pavia leading them in both passing and rushing. That rushing attack, for both teams, is why I like the big underdog in this spot. Neither team pass frequently, as both rank in the bottom thirty nationally in pass attempts. With both teams keeping the ball on the ground, the clock will run, possessions will be minimized, and Auburn will have a tougher time getting margin. And with Alabama up next, Auburn has no incentive to run up the score. I expected this spread to be under twenty points, so I will happily take 24.
Old Dominion +6 Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is already bowl eligible for the second straight season under Clay Helton, but the Eagles have faded after a strong start. Georgia Southern began the year 4-1, with the only loss coming at Wisconsin when they outgained the Badgers, but turned the ball over six times. And while the Eagles are 3-3 in Sun Belt play, they are fortunate to have such a mediocre record. They have been outgained by those six league opponents by nearly one yard per play (-0.99). In all three of their conference victories, the Eagles returned an interception for a touchdown, helping them overcome situations where their opponents were more efficient on a play-by-play basis. Meanwhile, Old Dominion also sports an identical 3-3 league record, but the Monarchs have actually outgained their league opponents by more than half a yard per play (+0.64). Old Dominion has been incredibly unfortunate in their fourth down conversion rate. The Monarchs have only converted one of eight fourth downs in Sun Belt play, while their opponents have converted nine of fifteen (60%). In addition, all of Old Dominion's conference games have been decided by a touchdown or less. I expect more of the same here. Georgia Southern should probably be favored, but the spread should be less than a field goal. Laying nearly a touchdown, even at home, is too much.
Syracuse +6.5 Georgia Tech
At this point, Georgia Tech is a pretty simple handicap under Brent Key. Back them as an underdog, and fade them as a favorite. As an underdog, either at home or away, Georgia Tech is 10-2 ATS under Key with eight outright victories! As a favorite (all of which have come at home), the Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS and have lost each game outright. Syracuse changed up their offense last week, eschewing the forward pass (nine passes for eight yards) and ran what amounts to a modified version of the single wing. That rushing attack would seem to match up perfectly with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets cannot stop the run, allowing 224 yards per game and 5.33 yards per carry on the season. Fade the Yellow Jackets yet again as a favorite.
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