The Magnificent Seven: Week IV

Since there are only ten games on the board this week, there shall only be three picks. That means I will hopefully not miss as many games as I have most weeks. The season is almost mercifully over. 

Last Week: 2- 5

Overall: 41-49-1

UNLV +2 Boise State

UNLV is in an interesting position, having backed into the Mountain West Championship Game. The Rebels lost last week to the hottest Mountain West team (San Jose State), to throw the league into a three-way tie. The computers decreed the Rebels and Broncos the two best teams and here we are. This is UNLV's first appearance in a conference title game and arguably the biggest game in school history (other contender is their regular season finale in 1984 when they hosted tenth ranked SMU). Meanwhile, this marks Boise State's second straight trip the Mountain West Championship Game (and sixth in seven seasons). However, the Broncos trip here was perhaps more bumpy. They dropped three of four non-conference games and were just 4-5 overall after a loss to Fresno State a month ago. They fired head coach Andy Avalos after beating New Mexico the following week and closed the season with two more victories to clinch a spot in the title game. The Broncos have not fared well away from the Smurf Turf this season, posting a 2-4 straight up record and a 1-4-1 ATS record. Meanwhile, UNLV has only lost once this season in Las Vegas. This game is also part of a trend in conference title games where it has been beneficial to fade road favorites. In Group of Five/non-BCS conference title games, road favorites are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 ATS. Comparatively, home favorites have done great straight up (29-8) and have been a coin flip against the spread (18-17-2). I like the Rebels to continue that trend at home and claim their first conference title since 1984. 

Appalachian State +6 Troy

Both Sun Belt Championship Game participants have rebounded from rough starts. Troy began the year 1-2, much like they started in 2022, before reeling off nine consecutive wins (with seven coming by double digits) to easily wrap up the Sun Belt West for a second straight season. Meanwhile, Appalachian State began the year 3-4, but won their last five games (with four coming by double digits) to claim the Sun Belt East for the second time in three seasons (on a technicality). For Appalachian State, the turnaround was due to their defense. In their first three Sun Belt games, the Mountaineers allowed 7.09 yards per play and 31.7 points per game. Over their final five conference games, the Mountaineers allowed 5.10 yards per play and 22.2 points per game. The offense, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, has been fantastic all season, and it will probably need to be again as it goes against one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. I think the Mountaineers have a shot to pull the upset since they faced a tougher schedule residing in the Sun Belt East. In addition, the Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS as a road underdog under head coach Shawn Clark and have not lost a game by more than a touchdown in more than a calendar year. 

Florida State -2.5 Louisville @ Charlotte

While the injury to Jordan Travis has dealt a major blow to Florida State's national title hopes, I think it has devalued them enough to make them a great play in this spot. A few years ago, I wrote about how preseason top ten teams tend to dominate conference title games against teams that began the season unranked. Those preseason top ten teams have gone 28-2 straight up in conference title games and have outscored their opponents by nearly twenty points per game. Louisville is a nice story, but their fantastic record is more a product of their schedule than elite play. The Seminoles have had a full game (in a hostile environment) to gameplan around the loss of their star quarterback. I think they are able to win by at least a touchdown against a good, but not great Louisville team.