2024 Yards Per Play: Mountain West

With the dissolution of the Pac-12, the Mountain West is the only conference with all members in the western half of the United States (for now). How did things play out in 2024? 

Here are the 2024 Mountain West standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Mountain West team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2024 season, which teams in the Mountain West met this threshold? Here are Mountain West teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Boise State and Colorado State significantly exceeded their expected record based on Net YPP while the trio of San Jose State, New Mexico, and Nevada significantly underachieved. Boise State and Colorado State went a combined 6-1 in one-score conference games and also finished with good in-conference turnover margins. The Broncos were third in the Mountain West in that statistic (+6) and the Rams were second (+7). Close games explain Nevada's significant underachievement. The Wolfpack were winless in one-score conference games (0-4). More on them in a second. New Mexico had the worst in-conference turnover margin of any Mountain West team (-10). The Lobos forced just four turnovers in their seven league games. In their three league wins, the Lobos were had a turnover margin of -1, but in their four league losses, they were -9, including a combined -7 in losses to Colorado State and Fresno State. Close games (1-1) and turnovers (-4) don't do a great job of explaining San Jose State's underachievement. For the Spartans, it was a combination of a lot of things. They did have a negative in-conference turnover margin, but it wasn't horrendous. They also eschewed fourth down attempts (a league low seven attempts) and didn't do a great job of converting those attempts (three successful conversions). More aggression probably would have suited the Spartans. They also struggled scoring touchdowns in the red zone, converting just 56% of their red zone trips into touchdowns against Mountain West foes. Finally, they also struggled making kicks, hitting just four of seven field goal attempts in conference play. It wasn't just one thing, but a healthy combination that prevented San Jose State from finishing higher in the conference. 

The Best Winless Team Ever

The above superlative requires a lot of qualifiers (mid-major team, winless in conference play, as adjudicated by Net YPP, since 2005), but it described the Nevada Wolfpack in 2024. 

Nevada fired Ken Wilson after back to back 2-10 finishes following the 2023 season. His replacement, Jeff Choate, came from Texas, where he was the co-defensive coordinator, but he also had success as an FCS coach at Montana State. The Wolfpack seemed like they might be contenders in the Mountain West as they opened the season by taking SMU to the brink at home and beating the two-time defending Sun Belt champ Troy on the road. SMU ended up making a quarterback change and Troy ended up not being very good, so that start was a bit of a mirage. Though the Wolfpack were competitive in Choate's first season, they only won two other games after beating Troy and none of them came in Mountain West play. The Wolfpack were outgained by .33 yards per play by Mountain West opponents, a figure that ranked eighth in the twelve team league. Not great, but also not indicative of a team that would go winless in league play. In fact, Nevada posted the best Net YPP numbers of any mid-major (non-BCS/Group of Five) team that finished winless in conference play since I have been tracking the statistic (2005). 

Around these parts, we are not only concerned with how teams performed in the past, but what that data might tell us regarding their future performance (for betting purposes, duh). How did the other nine teams on this list fare the following season? Read on to find out. 

In the aggregate, the teams got better. Collectively, the nine teams improved from zero total conference wins to 22, meaning they won roughly two and half conference games on average. Seven of the nine teams improved and six of the nine improved by at least two games. However, it should be noted that improvement is not guaranteed. Two teams, Georgia State and SMU, went winless in their respective leagues the following season, though both do have some extenuating circumstances. 

After finishing winless in Conference USA in 2007, SMU fired coach Phil Bennett and replaced him with Run N' Shoot aficionado June Jones. 2008 may seem like yesterday, but college football has changed drastically since then. Jones was not able to revamp his entire roster in one offseason and the Mustangs struggled running his new offense, although they again posted respectable Net YPP numbers and just missed making this list. After struggling in 2008, the Mustangs won eight games (six in league play) in Jones' second season. 

Georgia State's extenuating circumstances are they were new to FBS in 2013 and football in general. The Panthers played their first game in school history in 2010 and were FBS team by their fourth season. Clearly, they were not ready for prime time, losing their first fifteen conference games in 2013 and 2014 before beating New Mexico State for their first Sun Belt in in 2015. 

Not only was Nevada arguably the best team to go winless in conference play, they also underachieved relative to their Net YPP numbers more than any other mid-major team since 2005 save one. 

Only Utah State in 2016 underachieved more than Nevada in 2024. How did the other three teams on this list perform the following season? You already know SMU changed coaches and again failed to win a league game, but the other two teams improved dramatically. 

In Shawn Elliott's first season at Georgia State, the Panthers finished with a winning Sun Belt record and won their first ever bowl game. That same year, Utah State rebounded from a disappointing 2016 campaign and quadrupled their conference win total en route to a sixth bowl appearance in seven seasons. 

Using history as a guide, I think there is a great chance Nevada not only improves in 2025, but also qualifies for a bowl game for the first time since 2021. I expect the Wolfpack to have a modest preseason win total, so the 'over' may be one of my big plays when I make my annual pilgrimage to Las Vegas.

2024 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: MAC

Last week we looked at how MAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2024 MAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, MAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

No MAC teams saw their actual record differ significantly from their APR, so we'll move on to more interesting topics. 

Go (Mountain) West, Young Man

Northern Illinois is not what you would call an ancestral MAC team. The Huskies were members of the league in the late 70s and early 80s, but left to join the Independent circuit in 1986. They tried that for seven years before joining the Big West in 1993. Their dalliance with the doomed football league did not last long, as they were an Independent once again in 1996 before rejoining the MAC in 1997. Since rejoining the league, they have arguably been the standard bearer for the MAC, posting the most conference title game appearances (9) and wins (tied with Marshall at 5). 2025 will mark the Huskies' final season (for now) in the MAC as they will be joining a revamped Mountain West in 2026. The Mountain West is losing five of its current members (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State) as the Pac-12 seeks ro resurrect itself. That leaves seven current Mountain West members (Air Force, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, and Wyoming) plus UTEP who will also be joining in 2026. How much of a history does Northern Illinois have with these other eight teams? Not a lot. They have faced five of them (Nevada, San Jose State, UNLV, UTEP, and Wyoming) in eleven total games. The table below lists their history with their future conference mates. Previous conference games have an asterisk.

The Huskies have been reasonably successful against teams they will soon share a conference with, but the majority of that success has come against UNLV (5-0) and the Huskies have only played three games game against their future conference foes in the past decade. Northern Illinois will stick out in their new conference, although they are closer to mountains that I initially believed (roughly 210 miles from the Shawnee National Forest). They don't have a lot of history with these teams and they will see their frequent flyer mileage increase. However, if the Huskies harbor ambitions of competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff, a move to the Mountain West may prove to be beneficial. 

2024 Yards Per Play: MAC

Five conferences down, four to go. This week, we head to the midwest and examine the Big 10's little brother, the MAC.

Here are the 2024 MAC standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each MAC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2024 season, which teams in the MAC met this threshold? Here are MAC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Buffalo was the only team that saw their actual record differ from their expected record based on YPP. The Bulls posted a negative per play differential, but finished with a winning conference record and came close to qualifying for the MAC Championship Game in head coach Pete Lembo's first season back in the MAC. The Bulls had a decent, but not especially strong close game record in conference play (2-1), finished with a +6 in-conference turnover margin, and were significantly better on fourth down than their conference opponents. In MAC play, the Bulls converted ten of sixteen fourth down attempt, while their opponents converted just nine of twenty one. That's an additional six hidden turnovers the Bulls netted in those high leverage situations. 

A Star is Burns

One of the more thankless and anonymous jobs in college football is probably the head football coach at Kent State. Without Googling, can you recall the current head coach? His name is Ken Burns. Not the documentarian who loves baseball. Different guy. Technically, he goes by Kenni Burns. But you get the idea. He shares a name with an at least somewhat known filmmaker, and you probably had no idea who he was. Anyway, as I have mentioned before, I plan these posts out far in advance, so this is not related to the recent news that Kent State placed Burns on administrative leave. The news broke nearly two weeks ago and I have not seen any follow up reporting. This again speaks to the anonymity of being the head coach at Kent State. Were the head coach at Alabama or Ohio State placed on administrative leave, I would have expected some additional inquiries into the reason. There are some internet rumors involving Burns. I have too much integrity to reprint them in this space, but not enough to not link to them. Enjoy. 

Aside from potential off the field issues, Kent State has not enjoyed any gridiron success under Burns. The Golden Flashes are 1-23 in his two seasons in charge and have yet to defeat an FBS opponent. How common is it for teams to win one game or fewer over two seasons? Perhaps a little more common than you might think. In the BCS/CFP era (since 1998), there have been sixteen instances of a school winning one game or fewer over two seasons. They are listed alphabetically below along with their respective head coaches. 

Kenni Burns is in pretty rare company. Only three other coaches (Tom Arth, Walt Bell, and Trent Miles) put up such bad numbers in their first two seasons on the job. If Burns makes it to the beginning of the season, he will join those three in being given a third season at the helm despite the deplorable start. Both Arth and Bell were fired before completing their third seasons, but Miles actually got Georgia State to a bowl in his third season before being fired midway through his fourth. 

Not to pile on Burns and Kent State, but I want to give some more context as to how bad they have been the past two seasons. Of the sixteen teams on the previous list, fifteen won at least one game (Duke is the only team in the BCS/CFP era to post back-to-back winless campaigns). Of those fifteen, Kent State is one of three to not defeat an FBS team in that span. 

Kent State's lone win under Burns came in his third game against Central Connecticut State. The Blue Devils were a bad FCS team in 2023, finishing 3-8. The Golden Flashes also scheduled a bad FCS team in 2024, but did not fare quite as well. St. Francis, recently in the news for opting to drop down to Division III in all sports, defeated Kent State 23-17 this past season. The other colored Flashes (Red in this case) were not a good FCS team, finishing 4-7 on the season. The loss to Saint Francis (who I thought was a big sissy), gives Kent State, along with Georgia State, the ignominious distinction of being the only team with a single win over two seasons that both lost to an FCS team and had their only win come against an FCS team. Georgia State at least has the excuse of being an FBS neophyte during their two year run of futility. The teams from the previous list that lost to FCS teams are listed below. 

Things seem pretty hopeless at Kent State at the moment. I don't know what fans expected when Burns was hired, but it was probably better than 1-23 (1-1 versus FCS opponents and 0-22 versus FBS teams). The list of teams that won one game or fewer over two seasons does not offer a lot of hope, at least not for the progenitor of most of the losses. Arizona (Jeff Fisch), Florida International (Mario Cristobal), South Carolina (Lou Holtz), Southern Miss (Todd Monken), and Temple (Al Golden) had success after firing the coaches that started floundering. However, outside of Trent Miles, none of the other coaches that started the skid were able to course correct. 

2024 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Conference USA

Last week we looked at how Conference USA teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2024 Conference USA standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Conference USA teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as a somewhat arbitrary standard for determining which teams over or underachieved according to their APR. By that standard, Florida International was the only team that saw their actual record differ significantly from their APR. The Panthers also underachieved relative to their Yards Per Play numbers and we went over some reasons for that last week. 

Champ Vs Champ

Thanks to the expanded College Football Playoff format (byes for the four highest rated conference champions), there was only one bowl game in 2024 that featured two outright conference champions. The Cure Bowl brought together the MAC champion (Ohio) and Conference USA champion (Jacksonville State) in beautiful Orlando, Florida. In the BCS/CFP era (since 1998), 55 bowl games have been contested between outright conference champions. 13 different bowl have hosted these games. They are listed below along with the number of instances and the most recent occurrence. 

It's no surprise the four original BCS bowl games plus the BCS Championship Game have seen the most outright champion matchups. The BCS Championship Game was around for eight seasons (2006-2013), but twice did not feature two outright conference champions. The first came in 2011, when LSU and Alabama staged their Game of The Century rematch and the second came the following year when Independent Notre Dame qualified for the title game. Back in the early days of the BCS, the Liberty Bowl served as a showcase for non-BCS champions, pitting so-called mid-major champions against one another in 2000, 2001, 2003, and 2004. Seven of those eight mid-major champions entered the game ranked in the AP Poll. The Cure Bowl may end up serving as the mid-major showcase in the new world of college football, having hosted a pair of outright mid-major champs in both 2022 and 2024. If you remembered the Arizona, GMAC/Go Daddy, and Poinsettia Bowls existed, much less hosted two outright conference champions, give yourself a hand. 

Before we close, I wanted to mention the year 1998. Thus far, that is the only season in the BCS/CFP era that did not feature a single matchup between outright conference champions. This was mostly due to the three-way tie atop the Big 10 and two-way tie atop the ACC. With no championship games in those leagues, the split titles ensured there was no true champ versus champ bowl game. Since then though, we are currently riding a 26-year streak of at least one champ versus champ matchup in the postseason.