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Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 30-33
Clemson -2.5 Duke
I don't want to alarm any Clemson fans that read this blog (assuming of course that Clemson fans can read), but if the Tigers drop this game to them Duke Boys, they may not qualify for a bowl. A loss would give the Tigers five on the season. They would then need to win two of three against Florida State, Louisville, and South Carolina (with the final two coming on the road) to get to six wins assuming they handle business against Furman. Think about that for a second. When the Tigers were making playoff appearances beginning in the middle of the last decade, they lost three regular season games combined between 2015 and 2020. Perhaps more disturbing for the Clemson faithful is the Tigers lack of success in Death Valley. Clemson has dropped five consecutive games to power conference opponents at home. For comparison, between 2013 and 2023, the Tigers lost four homes game total! I think the Tigers end that skid against power conference teams this weekend. Duke has done a great job of tripping over their own dicks when stepping up in class this season. They committed five turnovers in a home loss to Illinois, fell behind big against Tulane and could not recover, and choked away numerous red zone opportunities in a home loss to Georgia Tech. Duke's victories this season have come against Elon, Cal, NC State, and Syracuse (versus a backup quarterback). Cal and NC State will do well to finish 6-6. I know Clemson may not finish much better than that, but the Tigers at least have pedigree and more talented players than the Wolfpack and Golden Bears. Plus, Clemson has played better than their 2-3 league record would indicate. Clemson has outgained four of their five ACC opponents and on the season are averaging more than a yard more per play than their league foes (+1.12). You are catching Clemson at a discount against a Duke defense that has been shredded by every quarterback they have faced with the exception of Syracuse's backup (Rickie Collins). Take the Tigers to win this one by at least a touchdown.
Texas -2.5 Vanderbilt
I was one of the first folks on the Diego Pavia bandwagon when he arrived in Nashville. And the transfer from New Mexico State and juco national champion from New Mexico Military has not disappointed. Vanderbilt won a bowl game for the first time in more than a decade last season and defying their history, are somehow ranked ninth in the latest edition of the AP Poll. Vanderbilt was a good story and a plucky underdog last season, but they are a good team this season. That being said, why are they only catching two and half points at Texas? The Longhorns have played well enough to lose in three of their last four games, saving Billy Napier's job (temporarily) in The Swamp a month ago and nearly losing to both Kentucky and Mississippi State over the past two weeks. Those data points are not great, but they all came away from home, where coincidentally, Texas has not played in six weeks. This is their first home game since their destruction of Sam Houston State in late September. Meanwhile, if you try hard enough, you can poke a few holes in Vanderbilt's resume. All their non-conference victories came against bad (Georgia State, Utah State, and Virginia Tech) or FCS (Charleston Southern) teams. In their road win against South Carolina, Gamecock quarterback LaNorris Sellers exited with a concussion and they gained just 265 yards of offense in their victory against Missouri last week while also benefitting from another quarterback injury. I would be pleased as punch if the Commodores managed to beat the Longhorns and continue their quixotic quest to win the SEC, but I think you are getting Texas at a discount in this spot even if Arch Manning is unable to play.
UCF +3.5 Baylor
How much fight does Baylor have left? The Bears fancied themselves contenders in the Big 12 in the preseason. By the way, take a look at the preseason consensus for the Big 12. You'd be better off throwing a darts. After closing the 2024 regular season with six consecutive wins, optimism was high in Waco. However, the Baylor defense has been a smoking crater in 2025, allowing over 36 points per game to FBS opponents. Arizona State and Oklahoma State were the only teams that failed to crack thirty against Baylor's woeful stop unit. Starting with this game, Baylor does get three of their final four games at home, but outside of their 2021 Big 12 title winning campaign, the Bears have not been good in Waco. Under embattled head coach Dave Aranda, the Bears are 11-12 straight up in Big 12 homes games. They were 5-0 in Big 12 home games in 2021. Even a Clemson grad can do that math. That means they are 6-12 straight up in conference home games in Aranda's other four and a half seasons. With a defense this bad, you can never feel comfortable laying points. And their opponent this week, UCF, is off a bye and ready to get back to a bowl game after missing out on one for the first time in a decade last season. Outside of their opener, when they were inexplicably shut down by Jacksonville State, UCF has run the ball well in 2025. I expect the Knights to continue doing so against a porous Baylor defense. The Knights should be both efficient and explosive on the ground and do enough to potentially leave Waco with their fifth win and a fired Baylor head coach.
SMU +11.5 Miami
If all you saw was the final score, you likely thought Miami had no problem with Stanford last week. After all the Hurricanes won 42-7 and outgained Stanford by more than 250 yards. However, this game was tied at halftime and Miami punched in a touchdown with under thirty seconds to play to eke out the cover. The second half outburst against Stanford also marked the first time Miami scored more than 28 points against a power conference opponent. The Hurricanes are good, but they are built to win with their defense. Defense first teams are not who you want to lay double digits with, particularly on the road. And while this is not Miami's first road trip of the season, it is their first foray outside the state of Florida since the regular season finale last year when they blew a shot at both the ACC title (and clash with SMU) and a playoff spot. SMU comes home off their first conference loss in nearly three years in a game that was an abomination of offensive football. The Mustangs and Demon Deacons combined for nearly as many turnovers and punts (21) as they did first downs (25). Prior to that showing, SMU had been solid to good on offense, averaging nearly 34 points per game and 6.3 yards per play against power conference opponents. Their pass defense has been a little suspect, but their run defense has been good and they have been able to pressure opposing quarterbacks (25 sacks on the season). The Mustangs should be able to put Carson Beck and Miami in unfavorable third down situations. Couple that with Miami's lack of offensive dominance and you have the recipe for a close game. SMU has lost four homes games under Rhett Lashlee. Three have come by a field goal or less and the other was by eight points to the eventual national runner up. I think SMU keeps this one close and potentially ends Miami's chances for their first ACC title by pulling the outright upset.
Navy +6.5 North Texas
Navy's schedule has been paper soft thus far, so their 7-0 record is not quite indicative of how good they are. Still, the Midshipmen have banked seven win, including five in the American, and even assuming a loss next week to Notre Dame, are in position to snag a College Football Playoff bid. The Midshipmen continue to excel in their second season under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic and quarterback Blake Horvath. The Midshipmen are averaging over 37 points per game and over seven and a half yards per play. I expect a shootout as they travel to Denton to take on North Texas. The Mean Green have a potent offense of their own, averaging over 46 points per game in their third season under head coach Eric Morris. And while Navy has gotten a lot of flack for their soft schedule, North Texas has not exactly faced a phalanx of strong teams either. The Mean Green have beaten an FCS team (Lamar), a MAC team in overtime (Western Michigan), an unhoused team (Washington State), a Sun Belt team (South Alabama), and a trio of American teams without a winning record (Army, Charlotte, and UTSA). In addition, their victory against Washington State was buoyed by five Cougar turnovers. In their lone game against an opponent in the top half of college football, they were demolished by South Florida. The North Texas defense is better than it has been the past two seasons when they allowed over 37 and 34 points per game respectively, but I expect Navy to shred them on the ground and through the air. These teams seem to be close in strength to me. Consequently, I recommend you back the team catching nearly a full touchdown.
Temple +4.5 East Carolina
We see it almost every season. An also ran hires a good coach and boom, they are usually (instantly) competitive. Temple is the most recent team to do this after hiring KC Keeler away from Sam Houston State. Keeler won a pair of FCS titles at Delaware and Sam Houston State and later led the Bearkats to success after they joined FBS. Keeler has already guided the Owls to five wins, their most since 2019. Temple has yet to beat a good team (UTSA is probably their best win), but they have been competitive in every game that did not involve a power conference team. Temple's biggest revelation has been their quarterback, Evan Simon. Simon came into the season with twenty career touchdown passes. He has tossed 21 a little more than halfway through the season. After scoring in the teens on average in three of the past five seasons, the Owls are averaging a robust 33.6 points per game this year. If that number holds, it would be their best offensive showing since 2018 when Geoff Collins parlayed running a competent offense at Temple into the Georgia Tech job. The Owls survived a scare at Tulsa last week, but back home, I expect a more complete showing in an upset of the Pirates.
Minnesota -3.5 Michigan State
The Golden Gophers are coming off a horrendous showing at Iowa where they were dominated by the Hawkeyes in a battle for the Floyd of Rosedale. The porcine trophy has been held by Iowa more often than not this century with the most humorous circumstance coming when Iowa fans tore down Minnesota's goalposts in 2002 after clinching an undefeated Big 10 regular season. In other words, the loss to the Hawkeyes should have been expected and should have almost no impact on the result in this game. While Minnesota was busy losing to Iowa, Michigan State may have shot their wad in an effort to get even with their big brother in East Lansing. The Spartans lost to Michigan for the fourth consecutive time to fall to 3-5 and put themselves in position to miss a bowl game for the fourth consecutive season. The Spartans also do not have a great track record in the games immediately following Michigan since Mark Dantonio's retirement. In the past five seasons, they are 1-4 both straight up and ATS in the game following their in-state battle with all four losses coming by double digits. Minnesota should win this game by at least a touchdown.
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