The Magnificent Seven: Week XIV

Another bad week pretty much locks up a losing record for us, but I don't know the meaning of the word 'quit' or 'correct pick' for that matter.    

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 42-49

Buffalo +6.5 Ohio

After winning nine games, including five in a row after a 4-4 start in Pete Lembo's first season in upstate New York, Much was expected of Buffalo heading into 2025. Obviously, things have not gone according to plan, as the Bulls need to spring an upset to qualify for a bowl game. Buffalo has had a weird MAC season, narrowly beating Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and Massachusetts while losing to Akron despite a solid per play yardage differential. The Bulls defense has been particularly strong, ranking third in the MAC in yards per play allowed behind the elite units at Toledo and Western Michigan. The culprit as is often the case, has been turnovers. In seven league games, the Bulls have a -10 turnover margin. They have had trouble squeezing the football, as they have lost seven fumbles in league play. Despite their turnover struggles, I think their underlying solid per play numbers make them an undervalued play, particularly at home catching nearly a touchdown. 

Arizona -1.5 Arizona State

Last season, Baylor came on strong at the end of the year, winning their final six regular season games after a 2-4 start, giving them darkhorse status heading into 2025. That horse just visited the glue factory, so that may not portend great things for Arizona in 2026, but in the present, they may be playing the best ball in the Big 12 outside of Lubbock. Arizona has won four in a row, but the Wildcats have played well for two months after getting punked at Iowa State in late September. They lost in overtime to BYU, which if you switch that result would make this one of the bigger Territorial Cup games in recent memory. They also lost on a late field goal to Houston. Overall, the Wildcats have the second best per play defense in the Big 12 behind the elite unit in Lubbock. Meanwhile, Arizona State has cobbled together a solid season with smoke and mirrors after a myriad of injuries threatened to derail their season. Over the past two season, Arizona State is 11-4 in one-score games (9-2 versus Big 12 opponents). The Sun Devils have been good, but they have been getting away with it a little bit thanks to their clutch play. I feel like we are due for a Jeff Sims dud and I think Arizona has the defense to make that happen. 

Clemson +2.5 South Carolina

The last time South Carolina was favored in the Palmetto Bowl was also the last time they won in Columbia (2013). Perhaps history is repeating itself, but you may recall that 2013 South Carolina team was their last truly elite squad (depending on how you feel about last year's team). This South Carolina team is far from elite. Their offensive line is porous, their quarterback takes too many sacks, and the team has averaged under twenty points per game against power conference opponents this season. The offense got on track against a bad Sun Belt defense last week, but Clemson, despite their struggles in 2025, has played better of late. They also outgained their ACC foes by about a half yard per play this season. That is a far cry from the ridiculous numbers they put up when they were consistently winning the conference, but they are not a bad team. This feels like an overreaction to last week's offensive explosion against Coastal and an 'SEC tax'. South Carolina did not allow a sack last week against Coastal. This week will look much more familiar to Gamecock fans with LaNorris Sellers not feeling the rush and getting taken down a few times in the backfield. 

Southern Miss -6.5 Troy

After looking like they were going to waltz into their first Sun Belt Championship Game, Southern Miss has dropped two in a row to set up a win and in battle with Troy. The winner figures to be a significant underdog to James Madison, but an appearance by either would serve as marked improvement after both finished a combined 3-13 in Sun Belt play last season. Troy has won all three games in this series since Southern Miss joined the Sun Belt in 2022, with each victory coming by double digits. However, those Southern Miss teams were mostly bad to mediocre and those first two Troy teams were Sun Belt champs. The Golden Eagles have been much better than Troy in their yards per play differential against conference foes. In fact, Troy enters with a significant negative per play differential (-.94 yards per play net). Southern Miss should get back on track at home against the Trojans and may end up winning this game by several touchdowns. 

Florida State +1.5 Florida

I talked about an 'SEC tax' a few lines up and I can't think of any other reason why Florida would be favored in this spot. After firing Billy Napier, the Gators circled the proverbial wagons against Georgia, but have looked bad in their last three outings, losing to Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee by a combined 61 points, with the two worst showings coming in The Swamp. Meanwhile, Florida State has posted solid per play numbers in the ACC (+.84 yards per play), but have been undone by close games (0-4 in one-score games) and turnovers (negative four margin in last week's loss at NC State). The bones of a good team are in Tallahassee and its look like Mike Norvell will get one more shot to try and conjure up a functional body. Take the Seminoles to beat Florida and finish with a pristine 2-0 SEC record to back up their 2-6 ACC mark. 

Maryland +3.5 Michigan State

On October 4, Maryland was 4-0 and leading Washington 20-0 in the second half. The Huskies stormed back to win and the Terrapins are riding a seven game losing streak (four consecutive double digit losses). It makes total sense to bring Mike Locksley back for 2026. No way they will just end up firing him halfway through next season. Locksley and the Terrapins may get to enter 2026 on a somewhat positive note as Michigan State has not distinguished themselves in 2025 either. After a 3-0 start, the Spartans have lost eight in a row, with six of those defeats coming by double digits. Yet somehow they are laying more than a field goal. I have to back Maryland on principle and for one other reason. Maryland does not do much well, but they do have a solid pass rush. And wouldn't you know it, only six teams have allowed more sacks than Michigan State this season. Back the Terps (at your own peril), but I think they end their skid this weekend. 

Auburn +5.5 Alabama

This is an odd numbered year, so you know Auburn will be giving Alabama all they can handle in the Iron Bowl. This amazingly marks the eighteenth consecutive year Alabama has been favored in this game. Auburn last entered as a favorite in 2007, Nick Saban's first year in Tuscaloosa. Since 2007, Alabama has won five of nine in Auburn, but they are just 2-7 ATS. They covered in 2011 with one of the best teams in school history and again in 2015 against a very mediocre Auburn team. Speaking of mediocre, this Auburn team needs to win to get to bowl eligibility. The Tigers are 1-6 in SEC play, having canned Hugh Freeze a few weeks ago after a home loss to Kentucky. Since that loss, the Tigers have played better on offense, scoring 38 points in a near upset of Vanderbilt in Nashville and dominating Mercer on So Con Saturday last week. Auburn's main issue this year has been their offensive line. The Tigers have allowed 41 sacks on the season (only Ball State and Troy have allowed more). However, Alabama does not rush the passer very well. Alabama has racked up a mediocre 23 sacks this season (tied for 62nd nationally). Alabama also does not run the ball very well, which plays right into the Auburn defense which has allowed under three yards per carry on the season. Alabama will have to grind out a win, so this should be a one possession game well into the fourth quarter. Back the Tigers as they have played better since icing out Hugh Freeze. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

Hard to believe, but the penultimate week of the regular season is here. Not much time left to try and improve upon this poor record.   

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 40-44

Kansas +4.5 Iowa State

Before Lance Leipold arrived in Lawrence, a five win season would have been celebrated. Of course, Leipold has changed expectations for the Jayhawks and a second consecutive season without a bowl game would be disappointing. Matt Campbell has similarly adjusted expectations in Ames. After getting the Cyclones to the Big 12 Championship Game last season, this season has been a disappointment. 2025 has continued a troubling trend for the Cyclones as they are on pace to be outgained on a per play basis for the second year in a row. The Cyclones were marginally outgained last season (negative .11 per play differential in yards per play), but this season, Big 12 opponents have outgained them by .84 yards per play. In particular, the Iowa State run defense has been bad for two consecutive seasons. That is not a good recipe for success against a Kansas team with a mobile quarterback and strong ground game. Iowa State has dropped two consecutive games as a home favorite, and a third straight would not surprise me.   

Kentucky +9.5 Vanderbilt

I don't have spread data for games that were played more than two decades ago, but I imagine this season is a first for Vanderbilt. Unless a horrible Simpsons-esque tragedy befalls every member of the team, the Commodores will close as a favorite against Kentucky and will have been favored in each of their SEC homes games. For comparison's sake, the Commodores were not favored in a single SEC game between 2019 and 2024! A victory here would clinch a winning SEC record for Vanderbilt for the first time since 2012, but I don't think it will come easy. Kentucky has played well over the past month and a half, nearly upsetting Texas before winning three in a row. That streak has gotten Kentucky to the cusp of bowl eligibility. The Wildcats need to beat either Vanderbilt or their in-state rivals Louisville in the regular season finale. Kentucky has one of the more underrated defenses in the SEC, having held three of their last four conference foes under four yards per play. I expect Vanderbilt to exceed that number, but the Wildcats should be able to frustrate the Commodores on occasion and hold them below their seasonal averages. On the other side of the ball, the Vanderbilt defense has not impressed. They have the third worst per play defense in the SEC ahead of only Mississippi State and Arkansas, two teams that have combined for one league win. Vanderbilt may remain in the College Football Playoff discussion after Saturday, but it won't be easy. 

Kansas State +17.5 Utah

2025 has been a weirdly dominant season for Utah. I say weirdly because the Utes have mostly played in blowouts, usually for, but occasionally against. Of their eight victories, all have come by at least 25 points. They have only lost two games, but their home loss to Texas Tech came by 24 points, meaning the Utes have played in exactly one game decided by less than three touchdowns. That game was a Holy War loss to BYU and it may end up costing the Utes a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game as well as a College Football Playoff bid. With that resume, you can sort of understand why Utah is laying over 17 points to Kansas State. Still, this is the second largest underdog role for Kansas State under head coach Chris Klieman. For what its worth, they won in their largest underdog role against Oklahoma in Norman in 2020 (nearly four touchdown underdog). While Utah has bullied most of the teams on their schedule with their explosive ground attack, I think Kansas State will be able to hold up in the trenches and force the Utes to pass, at least occasionally. That is something Utah does not do well. Utah is 80th nationally in yards per pass attempt (7.0 per throw). Those are not bad numbers, but they pale in comparison to their rushing average (6.20 yards per rush ranks third). If those runs don't result in big plays and touchdowns, they will keep the clock moving and be a big underdog's best friend. Kansas State mostly sleepwalked through a lethargic win at a very bad Oklahoma State last week, and that is probably inflating this line. The Wildcats still need to notch another win to attain bowl eligibility, so I expect their best effort against one of the best teams in the Big 12. 

Pittsburgh +2.5 Georgia Tech

I was wrong about Brent Key. I figured Georgia Tech's strong finish when he was the interim coach in 2022 was mostly randomness. Key has proven me wrong, guiding the Yellow Jackets to three consecutive bowl games while putting them in position to qualify for the ACC Championship Game this season. While the 6-1 conference mark looks great, Georgia Tech has actually been outgained slightly by their ACC foes on a per play basis (-.01 yards per play margin). The Yellow Jackets have the best per play offense in the ACC and the third worst per play defense. And they have accomplished this 'feat' despite a soft ACC schedule. Their ACC opponents have combined for a 17-30 conference record with some combination of Clemson, Duke, and Wake Forest representing their best conference win. Pittsburgh represents their best conference foe by far and while the Panthers were last seen getting walloped by Notre Dame after hosting College Gameday, before that loss, the Panthers had won five in a row while averaging 40 points per game. The Panthers should come close to that number against a bad Georgia Tech defense. The Panthers also have one of the better defensive units in the ACC and should hold Georgia Tech in check much like the two good defenses (Clemson and Wake Forest) they have faced did (both held Georgia Tech to under 30 points in regulation). Take the Panthers to cover and win outright and introduce more chaos into the ACC race. 

Rice +17.5 North Texas

North Texas is two wins away (home versus Temple next week) from playing in the AAC Championship Game and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Mean Green are also ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since 1959! I figured perhaps the legendary Hayden Fry had them ranked during his tenure in Denton, but this predated him by nearly fifteen years. The Mean Green were members of the Missouri Valley Conference the last time they had a little number beside their name. If you're curious, they lost at Tulsa (a team that finished 5-5) the last time they were ranked. I think the Mean Green may be overlooking the Owls after winning four in a row while notching at least fifty points in three of those games. While their record is great, I would argue the Mean Green are not much better on a down to down basis than they were last season when they finished a mediocre 6-6 in the regular season. Their offense is great, as it has been for all three season's of the Eric Morris era. And while their defense has improved slightly, it is still one of the worst in the AAC. Their record has been buoyed by an unsustainable turnover margin. The Mean Green are +14 in turnovers on the season (+16 in their nine wins). If the Mean Green are +2 or so in turnovers, they will blow the Owls out, but while not completely random, turnovers are fickle and can disappear at a moment's notice. While the Mean Green are fighting for a playoff appearance, Rice is fighting for bowl eligibility. The Owls are 5-5 in Scott Abell's first season and have already sprung two double digit upsets. Their most recent upset came after the Owls were off a bye (as they are this week) against a team with a poor run defense (Connecticut). The Mean Green also have a bad run defense, having permitted over 300 yards on the ground on three occasions this season while allowing over 200 yards three additional times. Rice should have one of their more prolific rushing performances this season and it will probably take a lot of points for them to cover this number. North Texas will score on this Rice defense, but Rice should limit the possessions and do enough scoring of their own to keep this within three scores. 

California -3.5 Stanford

When you think 'classic ACC battle', how can one not think of Cal and Stanford? The two newest members of the ACC will square off for the second time as ACC foes. Despite modest expectations, Cal is already bowl eligible while Stanford is looking at a fifth consecutive three win season. By comparison, the Cardinal won four games in the Covid impacted 2020 season. Stanford has pulled a few upsets at home (Boston College and Florida State), but both those teams had to travel from distant lands to face the Cardinal. Cal plays in Palo Alto every other season and have actually been quite successful on The Farm under Justin Wilcox. The Bears are 4-0 ATS on the road against Stanford, having won the past three in the series. Those three victories have come in a similar role (small underdog or small favorite). The Bears have the better quarterback, the better defense, and both teams are off byes, so there is no rest or travel advantage. Cal is 2-1 in their three ACC road games this season, with the loss coming in overtime. I like the Bears to win by at least a touchdown and clinch a winning campaign. 

Cincinnati +2.5 BYU

On Halloween, Cincinnati was 7-1, unbeaten in Big 12 play, and had at least a puncher's chance at qualifying for the expanded College Football Playoff. Three weeks later, the Bearcats have dropped two in a row and the season is in danger of falling off the rails in a scene eerily reminiscent of their first two Big 12 campaigns. In 2023, the Bearcats began the season 2-0 with a cupcake FCS win and a victory against former Big East rival Pitt. They lost nine of their last ten games. Last year, they began the season 5-2 with tight losses to Pitt and Texas Tech. Included among those five victories, was a win against eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State. Alas, the Bearcats dropped their final five games en route to missing out on the postseason. Can they avoid a similar swoon in 2025? The Bearcats have only lost once at home this season. Unfortunately, for those afflicted with recency bias, that loss came last week to Arizona. Don't look now, but the Wildcats may be playing the best ball in the Big 12 outside of Lubbock and Salt Lake City. For comparison's sake, Cincinnati was laying between five and six points to Arizona, a team I have similarly power rated to BYU. The Cougars are not seven points better than those Wildcats. BYU has only been favored in three previous Big 12 road games since joining the conference in 2023. They are 1-2 ATS in those games. The Big 12 has too much parity for there to be no drama down the stretch as the title game participants are decided. The Bearcats will win this game outright. 

The Maginificent Seven: Week XII

We had a nice bounce back week. Let's see if we can close the regular season strong. Lot of road dogs on the card this week. What could possibly go wrong? 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 37-40

Northwestern +12.5 Michigan

All that stands between Michigan and potential 'win and you're in' home game with their arch rivals from Columbus are two road trips to Northwestern and Maryland. Earlier in the year, the trip to College Park looked to be the more challenging of the two, but the wheels have come off the Maryland wagon and Mike Locksley may not even be the coach by the time that game kicks off. Instead, the perennial dust in your brakes, Wildcats appear to be the biggest threat to Michigan's College Football Playoff bid before their clash with the Buckeyes. Northwestern is 5-4 and on the cusp of their second bowl bid in three seasons under head coach David Braun. The Wildcats keep the ball on the ground (57% of their plays have been runs this season) to keep the clock running, reduce possessions, and introduce more variance against teams with greater talent. That formula has not worked against the more elite teams on the schedule (Oregon and Southern Cal beat them by twenty and twenty one points respectively). So, your opinion on this game should come down to where you stand on Michigan. Are the Wolverines an elite team, or merely pretty good? I come down on the side of merely pretty good. The Wolverines have handled their business in Ann Arbor, winning all their games save one by multiple scores. However, the best team they have beaten at home is Washington, which has struggled mightily away from the west coast. On the road, the Wolverines beat Nebraska and Michigan State, but they lost by multiple scores to Oklahoma and Southern Cal. In eight true road games under head coach Sherrone Moore, the Wolverines have score 17, 7, 15, 13, 13, 30, 13, and 31 points. With Northwestern's plodding offense and Bryce Underwood's struggles on the road, I don't expect Michigan to get to 30 points in this game. If the Wildcats can score two touchdowns, they should be able to cover in this spot and if they get some turnover luck, they could pull off the upset and end Michigan's playoff hopes. 

Air Force +7.5 Connecticut

Connecticut has put together one of the more underrated seasons in the Group of Five. While the Huskies do not have a conference affiliation and are subsequently are mostly ignored by the national media, they are 7-3 with two victories against the ACC (or the same number Florida State has since the beginning of the 2024 season). They are also unbeaten in regulation, with all three of their losses coming in overtime. With a few more breaks, the Huskies could easily be in contention for the Group of Five bid to the College Football Playoff. That being said, this is a rough spot for them. The Huskies just upset Duke at home for their aforementioned second victory against the ACC. Off that high, they welcome in a service academy fighting for their bowl lives. Air Force needs to win their final three games to become bowl eligible and avoid a second straight losing season. The Falcons have one of the worst pass defenses in the country, which is not a great characteristic to possess when facing Connecticut. Quarterback Joey Fagnado has yet to throw an interception on the season despite throwing the ball nearly 350 times! Wide receiver Skyler Bell is averaging over 100 yards per game and should make at least a handful of big plays against this woeful Air Force pass defense. So why on earth am I backing the Falcons in this spot? As I mentioned, I think this is a bad spot for Connecticut off the big win against Duke. After losing to Syracuse in overtime earlier this season, the Huskies took a road trip to Delaware and lost to the Blue Hens. Then after beating Boston College a month ago, they lost at Rice the next week. Its hard to keep a group of young men focused week to week. The Huskies have also struggled defending the run, which is something Air Force is adept at. Rice runs a variant of the option in their first season under Scott Abell, but they have not run it particularly well. Except of course, when they faced Connecticut. The Owls rushed for 300 yards against the Huskies (season high against an FBS team). I expect a similarly strong performance from the Air Force ground game. Finally, while the Air Force defense has been bad, the team has played almost every opponent tight. The Falcons are just 2-3 in their past five games, but the three losses have all come by exactly three points. The Falcons will be in this game and even if Connecticut has a late double digit lead, the backdoor should be wide open. 

West Virginia +11.5 Arizona State

Kenny Dillingham is one of the better coaches in college football. The Sun Devils have endured a spate of injuries in 2025, but Dillingham has Arizona State on the periphery of the Big 12 race. In fact, the Sun Devils are the only team to beat Texas Tech thus far in 2025. Dillingham also engineered an upset of Iowa State in Ames two weeks ago with Jeff Sims as his starting quarterback. Sims rolled up 228 yards on the ground against Iowa State despite no threat of a passing attack. However, in that victory, Arizona State scored only 24 points. And in general, that has been about the peak of Arizona State's point scoring in 2025. In seven games against power conference teams, the Sun Devils have averaged under 22 points per game and have failed to score more than 27 points in any game. If the Sun Devils are unlikely to score thirty points, that makes covering double digits a dicey proposition. West Virginia's pass defense is bad, but their run defense is respectable and I think that makes them a perfect play in this spot. Jeff Sims has been a poor passer and a turnover machine his entire college career. He has had some great rushing performances (108 yards versus Duke in 2020 and 128 yards against North Carolina in 2021), but he has not been able to consistently gash defenses with his legs. West Virginia has won two in a row and played well in three straight games. They close with Texas Tech, so at six losses, they are most likely out of bowl contention, but there are good vibes around the program. As long as Rich Rodriguez can avoid harassing any administrative assistants, this program should trend upward in 2026. I expect the Mountaineers to play well for a fourth consecutive game and give Arizona State all they can handle. 

Coastal Carolina +2.5 Georgia Southern

Five game into the season, Coastal Carolina was floundering (get it? flounder is a fish and Coastal Carolina is next to Myrtle Beach). The Chanticleers were 2-3 and had been held to 13 points or less in four of their five games. Whether it was desperation or merely a ploy to lull the rest of the Sun Belt into a false sense of security, Coastal unleashed quarterback Samari Collier on the masses. Collier is what you might call a limited passer (completed half his passes this season), but he is an excellent runner, especially against average or below Sun Belt defenses. Collier has rushed for at least 74 yards in his four starts (all victories for Coastal) and the team is in contention for the Sun Belt East title. James Madison will probably pound them in the final game of the regular season, but we ain't there yet. In Sun Belt play, Coastal Carolina is roughly on par with Georgia Southern in terms on Net YPP. The Chanticleers have been outgained by roughly .32 yards per play (5.49-5.81) while the Eagles have been outgained by .44 yards per play (5.45-5.89). However, in the four games Collier has started, the Chanticleers have outgained their Sun Belt foes by .70 yards per play (6.05 to 5.35). That is more indicative of who and what this Coastal team is. The wrong team is favored here. Coastal still has designs on a Sun Belt title, while Georgia Southern is struggling to get to six wins. Take a chance on the Chants. 

Appalachian State +21.5 James Madison

One season after a disappointing (and misleading) 4-4 Sun Belt record in their first season under head coach Bob Chesney, James Madison has just about locked up their first trip to the Sun Belt Championship Game. The Dukes are 8-1 overall and may even be in position to nab a College Football Playoff bid if chaos breaks out in the American Conference race (or less likely, the ACC). Meanwhile, Appalachian State is dangerously close to back to back losing seasons and also missing out on a bowl game for the third time in four seasons. The former FCS power has fallen on hard times after dominating the Sun Belt for their first half decade in the conference. Despite their struggles, they have played well against the run, which is how James Madison prefers to operate (run the ball on 63% of plays). The Mountaineers should be able to slow down their run game and force the Dukes into some unenviable third downs. All those runs should also keep the clock moving which favors the team catching more than three touchdowns. Plus, Appalachian State has played James Madison tough since the Dukes moved up to FBS in 2022. The Mountaineers have won two of three in the series (both as underdogs) and their lone loss came by four points (underdog is 3-0 both straight up and ATS). This is too many points for the Dukes to be laying. 

Oklahoma +6.5 Alabama

Last week, I laid out some reasons for fading Alabama against LSU. The pick ended up being wrong, but the concerns with Alabama remain. The Crimson Tide struggle to run the ball and don't do a great job rushing the passer. They have a difference maker at quarterback and some good receivers, but this team has to grind out wins. They are two wins away from an improbable undefeated run through the SEC, especially considering how the year began. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is still in contention for a College Football Playoff bid and with home games against Missouri and LSU remaining after this trip to Tuscaloosa, a victory here would make them more likely than not to make the field. Oklahoma continues to play good defense under Brent Venables, and while the offense is not in the same stratosphere it occupied under Lincoln Riley, it has been serviceable. The Sooners are not going to win many shootouts, but if a team manages to score in the twenties, it is not a lost cause like it was last season. Oklahoma has had a bye week to prepare for this trip and allow John Mateer to continue to convalesce from his hand surgery. Oklahoma should be able to put a scare into the home team and potentially insert themselves into the College Football Playoff discussion.  

North Carolina +6.5 Wake Forest

Wake Forest may not have ended, but they severely curtailed our long national nightmare of Virginia potentially making the College Football Playoff. While the Demon Deacons were able to beat Virginia on the scoreboard, the box score was not a thing of beauty. Wake Forest passed for a total of 64 yards on 23 attempts. They ran the ball better than they threw it, but still averaged less than four yards per attempt. Overall, Virginia outgained Wake Forest by more than 100 yards while averaging nearly two more yards per play. The Cavaliers were done in by turnovers (-3 net margin), an inability to score in the redzone (four trips resulted in nine total points), and a special teams touchdown by Wake Forest (punt return). Now after catching nearly a touchdown, Wake returns home where they are now laying a touchdown. The Wake Forest defense is one of the more underrated power conference units, but the offense can charitably be described as existing. In their past three games, of which they have won two, Wake Forest has scored 13, 7, and 16 points. And not they are facing another underrated power conference defense. The Tar Heels struggled in their first few games against power conference opponents under Bill Belichick. Against TCU, UCF, and Clemson, North Carolina allowed an average of 40 points per game and 6.7 yards per play. In their past four games against power conference teams (all after their most recent bye), the Tar Heels have allowed an average of 16 points per game and 3.9 yards per play. North Carolina is rounding into form, at least defensively, under one of the best NFL head coaches of all time and against a team that struggled to move the ball and score on their best days, they are the play catching nearly a full touchdown. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XI

The winning streak was snapped big time. The bad week pretty much guarantees we can't finish with a winning record, but we persevere. Also, last week was spiritually 3-4 as the Clemson game involved one of the worst pass interference calls I have ever seen.  

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 32-38

Iowa +6.5 Oregon

Does Iowa have a chance to sneak into the College Football Playoff? If they win here, we certainly have to consider it. Their next game would be a challenge at Southern Cal, but after that they host Michigan State and then travel to Nebraska to face the Cornhuskers and a backup quarterback. The odds are against an Iowa playoff bid, but if they win out, I think one is practically guaranteed. Can the Hawkeyes win the first leg of that four game parlay? I think so. Iowa is easily the second best team Oregon has played this season (after Indiana) and best team they have faced on the road (Northwestern, Penn State, and Rutgers are your other contenders). Oregon has looked the part with dominant performances against a less than stellar schedule, but I think Iowa will be able to drag them to hell much like they did Indiana a few weeks ago. The Hawkeyes held Indiana to their lowest point total on the season and I think the Iowa defense will force Dante Moore into a few bad decisions. If Iowa falls behind, they have no chance, as their offense, while better than previous incarnations, is still antiquated. But if they can make this a game played in the teens or low twenties (as the over/under total of 40.5 suggests it will be), they can not only cover, but win this game outright. 

Connecticut +9.5 Duke

Connecticut has already beaten one ACC team this season and taken another to overtime. Why can't they beat a Duke team that may be looking ahead to the rest of their conference schedule? Duke has already dropped two non-conference games, including one at a quality Group of Five opponent (Tulane). Plus, the Blue Devils are probably a little overvalued after their victory at Clemson last week. Duke was outgained by over 100 yards and nearly a full yard per play, but used a kickoff return touchdown, an insane fourth down performance (five for five), and an egregious pass interference call to steal a win from the Tigers. Duke is now 4-1 in the ACC with games against Virginia, North Carolina, and Wake Forest remaining on the schedule. The Blue Devils should be favored in all those games and thus have the inside track to the ACC Championship Game. The Huskies may not have their full attention. Meanwhile, with just two games reaming against Air Force and Florida Atlantic after this one, I expect the Huskies to treat this like their Super Bowl. Even a late two-score lead by Duke is not safe thanks to their poor defense and the solid Connecticut offense. The Huskies have lost three games this season by thirteen total points (all on the road and all in overtime) and have only lost at home once since the start of 2024. That loss came to an ACC team, but was by just three points. I expect a similar result on Saturday. 

LSU +9.5 Alabama

Alabama desperately needed a bye week after facing four consecutive ranked opponents (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee) and South Carolina (ranked thirteenth in the preseason). While Alabama won all five, they were less than impressive on a per play basis. In those five games, Alabama was outgained by 0.19 yards per play. They didn't play bad, especially after adjusting for the quality of competition, but they were not dominant either. I have been tracking per play numbers in conference games since 2005 and no team has finished with an unblemished conference record while posting a negative per play differential. Obviously, Alabama is just a touch more than halfway through their SEC schedule. They could lose one of their final three games or their performance could improve and push them toward the black. While Alabama was busy winning all their league games, LSU dropped three of four and decided they had endured enough of carpetbagger Brian Kelly. I expect LSU to get the patented interim coach bump in this spot. If the Tigers lose to Alabama, who knows how motivated they will be over the final three games of the schedule, but that is a problem for future gamblers to handicap. For now, I see a team with a better per play differential in the SEC catching almost double digits. Alabama will probably find a way to pull this one out, but I expect a one-score game. 

Wake Forest +6.5 Virginia

I usually shy away from backing or fading the ole alma mater, but I think the Demon Deacons are a good play on Saturday night. For starters, I think Wake Forest is underrated after their abysmal showing in Tallahassee last week. The defense allowed a season worst in points (42), yardage (421), and yards per play (7.39). However, that is not nearly as indicative of how good the defense has been this season. Really, the fact that this unit may drag an offense led by Robby Ashford to a bowl game is something to behold. Secondly, Virginia is not nearly as good as their national ranking (twelfth in the current AP Poll) would suggest. The Cavaliers have won their last five games by eight (in overtime), three (also in overtime), two, one (also in overtime), and ten (though spiritually three) points. They have also been outgained in four of five games. The rent is going to come due for the Cavaliers at some point this season. As a word of caution, if Wake Forest falls behind by more than ten points, their offense is so bad, it is probably a lost cause. However, I think the Wake defense keeps them in this game as they seek to hand Virginia their first (technical) conference loss. 

California +20.5 Louisville

A few weeks ago, Cal was 5-2 and with their upcoming schedule, a legitimate contender in the wide open ACC race. Two losses later, they are now 5-4 and in danger of missing out on a bowl altogether. Meanwhile, with all the chaos going on around them, Louisville has a great chance to get to the ACC Championship Game for the second time in three years under Jeff Brohm. Brohm also guided the Boilermakers to the Big 10 Championship Game in 2022, meaning on a personal level, he is shooting for three in four. While handicapping this game, I felt both really good and really bad about taking Cal. First the good. The Bears have a bad offensive line and a talented but young quarterback. If a team can get in the backfield and harass Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (easy for me to say), the Cal offense has almost no recourse. Fortunately, for Cal, Louisville does not generate a great deal of sacks (just sixteen on the season). Now the bad. Cal cannot stop the run. And Louisville has discovered a great run game. On the season, the Cardinals are averaging over five yards per carry and in their past two games, they have churned out over 550 yards on the ground. I'm sticking with the Bears for a few reasons. Number one, Louisville may not be as motivated to take on Cal as they will be for the next three weeks when they face Clemson, SMU, and Kentucky. The Clemson game has lost a lot of luster with the Tigers' struggles, but Clemson has a much better Q rating than Cal. Secondly, if Louisville runs the ball a lot, even successfully, that means the clock should keep moving. Finally, this marks one of the largest point spreads Jeff Brohm has been a part of as a head coach against a power conference opponent. His teams at Purdue and Louisville have been favored by three scores three times. They are 2-1 straight up in those games, but 0-3 ATS with each game being decided by a eight points or less. 

UCLA -1.5 Nebraska

Last week Nebraska lost at home to a Big 10 team from California and in the process lost their starting quarterback. Now they must travel to the Golden State to face the Big 10's other California team. Who could have imagined the Bruins and Cornhuskers would one day be conference opponents the last time they faced off in 2013 in the return game of an intriguing non-conference series? Unfortunately for Matt Rhule, his quarterback situation means the Cornhuskers will once again likely wheeze to the finish. In two and a half years at the helm in Lincoln, Rhule has guided the Cornhuskers to a respectable 14-7 record against FBS opponents in the months of August, September, and October. However, after the calendar shifts to November his charges have crumbled, posting a 1-8 mark including last week's loss to Southern Cal. That is something that has haunted Nebraska since Bo Pelini was ousted. Since 2015, under three different full time coaches and one interim, Nebraska is a mediocre 37-40 versus FBS teams between August and October. In the month of November, they are 12-30. Yikes. Obviously, the schedule stiffens in November as there are no cupcake non-conference games (after all the Cornhuskers do not play in the SEC), but I already somewhat accounted for that by removing all FCS games from the early season record. Perhaps, it is a lack of depth that has caused their November swoon. Whatever the reason, I think it continues as the Cornhuskers travel west to face a UCLA team that was embarrassed in their last game and is coming off a bye. 

Sam Houston State +20.5 Oregon State

Sometimes you have to back an ugly dog if the number is right and they don't come much uglier than Sam Houston. The Bearkats are one of two winless teams in FBS (along with Massachusetts). One season after winning ten games, Sam Houston is staring down the barrel of 0-12. And they happen to play in arguably the worst FBS conference (Conference USA). However, two weeks ago, Oregon State was also winless. The Beavers blasted an FCS team after firing their coach and then beat their former and future Pac-12 mate Washington State last week for their first win against an FBS team in more than eleven months. In fact, the Beavers last two FBS wins have come against Washington State. They have not beaten an FBS team based outside of Pullman since their victory against Colorado State last October. Oregon State beat Washington State despite gaining less than 200 yards. The Beavers are better than the Bearkats and should win their third straight game, but they are averaging under 17 points per game against FBS opponents. If Sam Houston has any pulse on offense they should do enough to get this cover.