The Maginificent Seven: Week XII

We had a nice bounce back week. Let's see if we can close the regular season strong. Lot of road dogs on the card this week. What could possibly go wrong? 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 37-40

Northwestern +12.5 Michigan

All that stands between Michigan and potential 'win and you're in' home game with their arch rivals from Columbus are two road trips to Northwestern and Maryland. Earlier in the year, the trip to College Park looked to be the more challenging of the two, but the wheels have come off the Maryland wagon and Mike Locksley may not even be the coach by the time that game kicks off. Instead, the perennial dust in your brakes, Wildcats appear to be the biggest threat to Michigan's College Football Playoff bid before their clash with the Buckeyes. Northwestern is 5-4 and on the cusp of their second bowl bid in three seasons under head coach David Braun. The Wildcats keep the ball on the ground (57% of their plays have been runs this season) to keep the clock running, reduce possessions, and introduce more variance against teams with greater talent. That formula has not worked against the more elite teams on the schedule (Oregon and Southern Cal beat them by twenty and twenty one points respectively). So, your opinion on this game should come down to where you stand on Michigan. Are the Wolverines an elite team, or merely pretty good? I come down on the side of merely pretty good. The Wolverines have handled their business in Ann Arbor, winning all their games save one by multiple scores. However, the best team they have beaten at home is Washington, which has struggled mightily away from the west coast. On the road, the Wolverines beat Nebraska and Michigan State, but they lost by multiple scores to Oklahoma and Southern Cal. In eight true road games under head coach Sherrone Moore, the Wolverines have score 17, 7, 15, 13, 13, 30, 13, and 31 points. With Northwestern's plodding offense and Bryce Underwood's struggles on the road, I don't expect Michigan to get to 30 points in this game. If the Wildcats can score two touchdowns, they should be able to cover in this spot and if they get some turnover luck, they could pull off the upset and end Michigan's playoff hopes. 

Air Force +7.5 Connecticut

Connecticut has put together one of the more underrated seasons in the Group of Five. While the Huskies do not have a conference affiliation and are subsequently are mostly ignored by the national media, they are 7-3 with two victories against the ACC (or the same number Florida State has since the beginning of the 2024 season). They are also unbeaten in regulation, with all three of their losses coming in overtime. With a few more breaks, the Huskies could easily be in contention for the Group of Five bid to the College Football Playoff. That being said, this is a rough spot for them. The Huskies just upset Duke at home for their aforementioned second victory against the ACC. Off that high, they welcome in a service academy fighting for their bowl lives. Air Force needs to win their final three games to become bowl eligible and avoid a second straight losing season. The Falcons have one of the worst pass defenses in the country, which is not a great characteristic to possess when facing Connecticut. Quarterback Joey Fagnado has yet to throw an interception on the season despite throwing the ball nearly 350 times! Wide receiver Skyler Bell is averaging over 100 yards per game and should make at least a handful of big plays against this woeful Air Force pass defense. So why on earth am I backing the Falcons in this spot? As I mentioned, I think this is a bad spot for Connecticut off the big win against Duke. After losing to Syracuse in overtime earlier this season, the Huskies took a road trip to Delaware and lost to the Blue Hens. Then after beating Boston College a month ago, they lost at Rice the next week. Its hard to keep a group of young men focused week to week. The Huskies have also struggled defending the run, which is something Air Force is adept at. Rice runs a variant of the option in their first season under Scott Abell, but they have not run it particularly well. Except of course, when they faced Connecticut. The Owls rushed for 300 yards against the Huskies (season high against an FBS team). I expect a similarly strong performance from the Air Force ground game. Finally, while the Air Force defense has been bad, the team has played almost every opponent tight. The Falcons are just 2-3 in their past five games, but the three losses have all come by exactly three points. The Falcons will be in this game and even if Connecticut has a late double digit lead, the backdoor should be wide open. 

West Virginia +11.5 Arizona State

Kenny Dillingham is one of the better coaches in college football. The Sun Devils have endured a spate of injuries in 2025, but Dillingham has Arizona State on the periphery of the Big 12 race. In fact, the Sun Devils are the only team to beat Texas Tech thus far in 2025. Dillingham also engineered an upset of Iowa State in Ames two weeks ago with Jeff Sims as his starting quarterback. Sims rolled up 228 yards on the ground against Iowa State despite no threat of a passing attack. However, in that victory, Arizona State scored only 24 points. And in general, that has been about the peak of Arizona State's point scoring in 2025. In seven games against power conference teams, the Sun Devils have averaged under 22 points per game and have failed to score more than 27 points in any game. If the Sun Devils are unlikely to score thirty points, that makes covering double digits a dicey proposition. West Virginia's pass defense is bad, but their run defense is respectable and I think that makes them a perfect play in this spot. Jeff Sims has been a poor passer and a turnover machine his entire college career. He has had some great rushing performances (108 yards versus Duke in 2020 and 128 yards against North Carolina in 2021), but he has not been able to consistently gash defenses with his legs. West Virginia has won two in a row and played well in three straight games. They close with Texas Tech, so at six losses, they are most likely out of bowl contention, but there are good vibes around the program. As long as Rich Rodriguez can avoid harassing any administrative assistants, this program should trend upward in 2026. I expect the Mountaineers to play well for a fourth consecutive game and give Arizona State all they can handle. 

Coastal Carolina +2.5 Georgia Southern

Five game into the season, Coastal Carolina was floundering (get it? flounder is a fish and Coastal Carolina is next to Myrtle Beach). The Chanticleers were 2-3 and had been held to 13 points or less in four of their five games. Whether it was desperation or merely a ploy to lull the rest of the Sun Belt into a false sense of security, Coastal unleashed quarterback Samari Collier on the masses. Collier is what you might call a limited passer (completed half his passes this season), but he is an excellent runner, especially against average or below Sun Belt defenses. Collier has rushed for at least 74 yards in his four starts (all victories for Coastal) and the team is in contention for the Sun Belt East title. James Madison will probably pound them in the final game of the regular season, but we ain't there yet. In Sun Belt play, Coastal Carolina is roughly on par with Georgia Southern in terms on Net YPP. The Chanticleers have been outgained by roughly .32 yards per play (5.49-5.81) while the Eagles have been outgained by .44 yards per play (5.45-5.89). However, in the four games Collier has started, the Chanticleers have outgained their Sun Belt foes by .70 yards per play (6.05 to 5.35). That is more indicative of who and what this Coastal team is. The wrong team is favored here. Coastal still has designs on a Sun Belt title, while Georgia Southern is struggling to get to six wins. Take a chance on the Chants. 

Appalachian State +21.5 James Madison

One season after a disappointing (and misleading) 4-4 Sun Belt record in their first season under head coach Bob Chesney, James Madison has just about locked up their first trip to the Sun Belt Championship Game. The Dukes are 8-1 overall and may even be in position to nab a College Football Playoff bid if chaos breaks out in the American Conference race (or less likely, the ACC). Meanwhile, Appalachian State is dangerously close to back to back losing seasons and also missing out on a bowl game for the third time in four seasons. The former FCS power has fallen on hard times after dominating the Sun Belt for their first half decade in the conference. Despite their struggles, they have played well against the run, which is how James Madison prefers to operate (run the ball on 63% of plays). The Mountaineers should be able to slow down their run game and force the Dukes into some unenviable third downs. All those runs should also keep the clock moving which favors the team catching more than three touchdowns. Plus, Appalachian State has played James Madison tough since the Dukes moved up to FBS in 2022. The Mountaineers have won two of three in the series (both as underdogs) and their lone loss came by four points (underdog is 3-0 both straight up and ATS). This is too many points for the Dukes to be laying. 

Oklahoma +6.5 Alabama

Last week, I laid out some reasons for fading Alabama against LSU. The pick ended up being wrong, but the concerns with Alabama remain. The Crimson Tide struggle to run the ball and don't do a great job rushing the passer. They have a difference maker at quarterback and some good receivers, but this team has to grind out wins. They are two wins away from an improbable undefeated run through the SEC, especially considering how the year began. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is still in contention for a College Football Playoff bid and with home games against Missouri and LSU remaining after this trip to Tuscaloosa, a victory here would make them more likely than not to make the field. Oklahoma continues to play good defense under Brent Venables, and while the offense is not in the same stratosphere it occupied under Lincoln Riley, it has been serviceable. The Sooners are not going to win many shootouts, but if a team manages to score in the twenties, it is not a lost cause like it was last season. Oklahoma has had a bye week to prepare for this trip and allow John Mateer to continue to convalesce from his hand surgery. Oklahoma should be able to put a scare into the home team and potentially insert themselves into the College Football Playoff discussion.  

North Carolina +6.5 Wake Forest

Wake Forest may not have ended, but they severely curtailed our long national nightmare of Virginia potentially making the College Football Playoff. While the Demon Deacons were able to beat Virginia on the scoreboard, the box score was not a thing of beauty. Wake Forest passed for a total of 64 yards on 23 attempts. They ran the ball better than they threw it, but still averaged less than four yards per attempt. Overall, Virginia outgained Wake Forest by more than 100 yards while averaging nearly two more yards per play. The Cavaliers were done in by turnovers (-3 net margin), an inability to score in the redzone (four trips resulted in nine total points), and a special teams touchdown by Wake Forest (punt return). Now after catching nearly a touchdown, Wake returns home where they are now laying a touchdown. The Wake Forest defense is one of the more underrated power conference units, but the offense can charitably be described as existing. In their past three games, of which they have won two, Wake Forest has scored 13, 7, and 16 points. And not they are facing another underrated power conference defense. The Tar Heels struggled in their first few games against power conference opponents under Bill Belichick. Against TCU, UCF, and Clemson, North Carolina allowed an average of 40 points per game and 6.7 yards per play. In their past four games against power conference teams (all after their most recent bye), the Tar Heels have allowed an average of 16 points per game and 3.9 yards per play. North Carolina is rounding into form, at least defensively, under one of the best NFL head coaches of all time and against a team that struggled to move the ball and score on their best days, they are the play catching nearly a full touchdown. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XI

The winning streak was snapped big time. The bad week pretty much guarantees we can't finish with a winning record, but we persevere. Also, last week was spiritually 3-4 as the Clemson game involved one of the worst pass interference calls I have ever seen.  

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 32-38

Iowa +6.5 Oregon

Does Iowa have a chance to sneak into the College Football Playoff? If they win here, we certainly have to consider it. Their next game would be a challenge at Southern Cal, but after that they host Michigan State and then travel to Nebraska to face the Cornhuskers and a backup quarterback. The odds are against an Iowa playoff bid, but if they win out, I think one is practically guaranteed. Can the Hawkeyes win the first leg of that four game parlay? I think so. Iowa is easily the second best team Oregon has played this season (after Indiana) and best team they have faced on the road (Northwestern, Penn State, and Rutgers are your other contenders). Oregon has looked the part with dominant performances against a less than stellar schedule, but I think Iowa will be able to drag them to hell much like they did Indiana a few weeks ago. The Hawkeyes held Indiana to their lowest point total on the season and I think the Iowa defense will force Dante Moore into a few bad decisions. If Iowa falls behind, they have no chance, as their offense, while better than previous incarnations, is still antiquated. But if they can make this a game played in the teens or low twenties (as the over/under total of 40.5 suggests it will be), they can not only cover, but win this game outright. 

Connecticut +9.5 Duke

Connecticut has already beaten one ACC team this season and taken another to overtime. Why can't they beat a Duke team that may be looking ahead to the rest of their conference schedule? Duke has already dropped two non-conference games, including one at a quality Group of Five opponent (Tulane). Plus, the Blue Devils are probably a little overvalued after their victory at Clemson last week. Duke was outgained by over 100 yards and nearly a full yard per play, but used a kickoff return touchdown, an insane fourth down performance (five for five), and an egregious pass interference call to steal a win from the Tigers. Duke is now 4-1 in the ACC with games against Virginia, North Carolina, and Wake Forest remaining on the schedule. The Blue Devils should be favored in all those games and thus have the inside track to the ACC Championship Game. The Huskies may not have their full attention. Meanwhile, with just two games reaming against Air Force and Florida Atlantic after this one, I expect the Huskies to treat this like their Super Bowl. Even a late two-score lead by Duke is not safe thanks to their poor defense and the solid Connecticut offense. The Huskies have lost three games this season by thirteen total points (all on the road and all in overtime) and have only lost at home once since the start of 2024. That loss came to an ACC team, but was by just three points. I expect a similar result on Saturday. 

LSU +9.5 Alabama

Alabama desperately needed a bye week after facing four consecutive ranked opponents (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee) and South Carolina (ranked thirteenth in the preseason). While Alabama won all five, they were less than impressive on a per play basis. In those five games, Alabama was outgained by 0.19 yards per play. They didn't play bad, especially after adjusting for the quality of competition, but they were not dominant either. I have been tracking per play numbers in conference games since 2005 and no team has finished with an unblemished conference record while posting a negative per play differential. Obviously, Alabama is just a touch more than halfway through their SEC schedule. They could lose one of their final three games or their performance could improve and push them toward the black. While Alabama was busy winning all their league games, LSU dropped three of four and decided they had endured enough of carpetbagger Brian Kelly. I expect LSU to get the patented interim coach bump in this spot. If the Tigers lose to Alabama, who knows how motivated they will be over the final three games of the schedule, but that is a problem for future gamblers to handicap. For now, I see a team with a better per play differential in the SEC catching almost double digits. Alabama will probably find a way to pull this one out, but I expect a one-score game. 

Wake Forest +6.5 Virginia

I usually shy away from backing or fading the ole alma mater, but I think the Demon Deacons are a good play on Saturday night. For starters, I think Wake Forest is underrated after their abysmal showing in Tallahassee last week. The defense allowed a season worst in points (42), yardage (421), and yards per play (7.39). However, that is not nearly as indicative of how good the defense has been this season. Really, the fact that this unit may drag an offense led by Robby Ashford to a bowl game is something to behold. Secondly, Virginia is not nearly as good as their national ranking (twelfth in the current AP Poll) would suggest. The Cavaliers have won their last five games by eight (in overtime), three (also in overtime), two, one (also in overtime), and ten (though spiritually three) points. They have also been outgained in four of five games. The rent is going to come due for the Cavaliers at some point this season. As a word of caution, if Wake Forest falls behind by more than ten points, their offense is so bad, it is probably a lost cause. However, I think the Wake defense keeps them in this game as they seek to hand Virginia their first (technical) conference loss. 

California +20.5 Louisville

A few weeks ago, Cal was 5-2 and with their upcoming schedule, a legitimate contender in the wide open ACC race. Two losses later, they are now 5-4 and in danger of missing out on a bowl altogether. Meanwhile, with all the chaos going on around them, Louisville has a great chance to get to the ACC Championship Game for the second time in three years under Jeff Brohm. Brohm also guided the Boilermakers to the Big 10 Championship Game in 2022, meaning on a personal level, he is shooting for three in four. While handicapping this game, I felt both really good and really bad about taking Cal. First the good. The Bears have a bad offensive line and a talented but young quarterback. If a team can get in the backfield and harass Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (easy for me to say), the Cal offense has almost no recourse. Fortunately, for Cal, Louisville does not generate a great deal of sacks (just sixteen on the season). Now the bad. Cal cannot stop the run. And Louisville has discovered a great run game. On the season, the Cardinals are averaging over five yards per carry and in their past two games, they have churned out over 550 yards on the ground. I'm sticking with the Bears for a few reasons. Number one, Louisville may not be as motivated to take on Cal as they will be for the next three weeks when they face Clemson, SMU, and Kentucky. The Clemson game has lost a lot of luster with the Tigers' struggles, but Clemson has a much better Q rating than Cal. Secondly, if Louisville runs the ball a lot, even successfully, that means the clock should keep moving. Finally, this marks one of the largest point spreads Jeff Brohm has been a part of as a head coach against a power conference opponent. His teams at Purdue and Louisville have been favored by three scores three times. They are 2-1 straight up in those games, but 0-3 ATS with each game being decided by a eight points or less. 

UCLA -1.5 Nebraska

Last week Nebraska lost at home to a Big 10 team from California and in the process lost their starting quarterback. Now they must travel to the Golden State to face the Big 10's other California team. Who could have imagined the Bruins and Cornhuskers would one day be conference opponents the last time they faced off in 2013 in the return game of an intriguing non-conference series? Unfortunately for Matt Rhule, his quarterback situation means the Cornhuskers will once again likely wheeze to the finish. In two and a half years at the helm in Lincoln, Rhule has guided the Cornhuskers to a respectable 14-7 record against FBS opponents in the months of August, September, and October. However, after the calendar shifts to November his charges have crumbled, posting a 1-8 mark including last week's loss to Southern Cal. That is something that has haunted Nebraska since Bo Pelini was ousted. Since 2015, under three different full time coaches and one interim, Nebraska is a mediocre 37-40 versus FBS teams between August and October. In the month of November, they are 12-30. Yikes. Obviously, the schedule stiffens in November as there are no cupcake non-conference games (after all the Cornhuskers do not play in the SEC), but I already somewhat accounted for that by removing all FCS games from the early season record. Perhaps, it is a lack of depth that has caused their November swoon. Whatever the reason, I think it continues as the Cornhuskers travel west to face a UCLA team that was embarrassed in their last game and is coming off a bye. 

Sam Houston State +20.5 Oregon State

Sometimes you have to back an ugly dog if the number is right and they don't come much uglier than Sam Houston. The Bearkats are one of two winless teams in FBS (along with Massachusetts). One season after winning ten games, Sam Houston is staring down the barrel of 0-12. And they happen to play in arguably the worst FBS conference (Conference USA). However, two weeks ago, Oregon State was also winless. The Beavers blasted an FCS team after firing their coach and then beat their former and future Pac-12 mate Washington State last week for their first win against an FBS team in more than eleven months. In fact, the Beavers last two FBS wins have come against Washington State. They have not beaten an FBS team based outside of Pullman since their victory against Colorado State last October. Oregon State beat Washington State despite gaining less than 200 yards. The Beavers are better than the Bearkats and should win their third straight game, but they are averaging under 17 points per game against FBS opponents. If Sam Houston has any pulse on offense they should do enough to get this cover. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week X

Five winning weeks in six and three in a row. Unfortunately, most of our winning weeks have been of the 4-3 variety, while our losing weeks were much worse. The overall record is not where we want it to be, but better than it was a month ago. Let's see if we can start November off strong. 

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 30-33

Clemson -2.5 Duke

I don't want to alarm any Clemson fans that read this blog (assuming of course that Clemson fans can read), but if the Tigers drop this game to them Duke Boys, they may not qualify for a bowl. A loss would give the Tigers five on the season. They would then need to win two of three against Florida State, Louisville, and South Carolina (with the final two coming on the road) to get to six wins assuming they handle business against Furman. Think about that for a second. When the Tigers were making playoff appearances beginning in the middle of the last decade, they lost three regular season games combined between 2015 and 2020. Perhaps more disturbing for the Clemson faithful is the Tigers lack of success in Death Valley. Clemson has dropped five consecutive games to power conference opponents at home. For comparison, between 2013 and 2023, the Tigers lost four homes game total! I think the Tigers end that skid against power conference teams this weekend. Duke has done a great job of tripping over their own dicks when stepping up in class this season. They committed five turnovers in a home loss to Illinois, fell behind big against Tulane and could not recover, and choked away numerous red zone opportunities in a home loss to Georgia Tech. Duke's victories this season have come against Elon, Cal, NC State, and Syracuse (versus a backup quarterback). Cal and NC State will do well to finish 6-6. I know Clemson may not finish much better than that, but the Tigers at least have pedigree and more talented players than the Wolfpack and Golden Bears. Plus, Clemson has played better than their 2-3 league record would indicate. Clemson has outgained four of their five ACC opponents and on the season are averaging more than a yard more per play than their league foes (+1.12). You are catching Clemson at a discount against a Duke defense that has been shredded by every quarterback they have faced with the exception of Syracuse's backup (Rickie Collins). Take the Tigers to win this one by at least a touchdown. 

Texas -2.5 Vanderbilt

I was one of the first folks on the Diego Pavia bandwagon when he arrived in Nashville. And the transfer from New Mexico State and juco national champion from New Mexico Military has not disappointed. Vanderbilt won a bowl game for the first time in more than a decade last season and defying their history, are somehow ranked ninth in the latest edition of the AP Poll. Vanderbilt was a good story and a plucky underdog last season, but they are a good team this season. That being said, why are they only catching two and half points at Texas? The Longhorns have played well enough to lose in three of their last four games, saving Billy Napier's job (temporarily) in The Swamp a month ago and nearly losing to both Kentucky and Mississippi State over the past two weeks. Those data points are not great, but they all came away from home, where coincidentally, Texas has not played in six weeks. This is their first home game since their destruction of Sam Houston State in late September. Meanwhile, if you try hard enough, you can poke a few holes in Vanderbilt's resume. All their non-conference victories came against bad (Georgia State, Utah State, and Virginia Tech) or FCS (Charleston Southern) teams. In their road win against South Carolina, Gamecock quarterback LaNorris Sellers exited with a concussion and they gained just 265 yards of offense in their victory against Missouri last week while also benefitting from another quarterback injury. I would be pleased as punch if the Commodores managed to beat the Longhorns and continue their quixotic quest to win the SEC, but I think you are getting Texas at a discount in this spot even if Arch Manning is unable to play.  

UCF +3.5 Baylor

How much fight does Baylor have left? The Bears fancied themselves contenders in the Big 12 in the preseason. By the way, take a look at the preseason consensus for the Big 12. You'd be better off throwing a darts. After closing the 2024 regular season with six consecutive wins, optimism was high in Waco. However, the Baylor defense has been a smoking crater in 2025, allowing over 36 points per game to FBS opponents. Arizona State and Oklahoma State were the only teams that failed to crack thirty against Baylor's woeful stop unit. Starting with this game, Baylor does get three of their final four games at home, but outside of their 2021 Big 12 title winning campaign, the Bears have not been good in Waco. Under embattled head coach Dave Aranda, the Bears are 11-12 straight up in Big 12 homes games. They were 5-0 in Big 12 home games in 2021. Even a Clemson grad can do that math. That means they are 6-12 straight up in conference home games in Aranda's other four and a half seasons. With a defense this bad, you can never feel comfortable laying points. And their opponent this week, UCF, is off a bye and ready to get back to a bowl game after missing out on one for the first time in a decade last season. Outside of their opener, when they were inexplicably shut down by Jacksonville State, UCF has run the ball well in 2025. I expect the Knights to continue doing so against a porous Baylor defense. The Knights should be both efficient and explosive on the ground and do enough to potentially leave Waco with their fifth win and a fired Baylor head coach. 

SMU +11.5 Miami

If all you saw was the final score, you likely thought Miami had no problem with Stanford last week. After all the Hurricanes won 42-7 and outgained Stanford by more than 250 yards. However, this game was tied at halftime and Miami punched in a touchdown with under thirty seconds to play to eke out the cover. The second half outburst against Stanford also marked the first time Miami scored more than 28 points against a power conference opponent. The Hurricanes are good, but they are built to win with their defense. Defense first teams are not who you want to lay double digits with, particularly on the road. And while this is not Miami's first road trip of the season, it is their first foray outside the state of Florida since the regular season finale last year when they blew a shot at both the ACC title (and clash with SMU) and a playoff spot. SMU comes home off their first conference loss in nearly three years in a game that was an abomination of offensive football. The Mustangs and Demon Deacons combined for nearly as many turnovers and punts (21) as they did first downs (25). Prior to that showing, SMU had been solid to good on offense, averaging nearly 34 points per game and 6.3 yards per play against power conference opponents. Their pass defense has been a little suspect, but their run defense has been good and they have been able to pressure opposing quarterbacks (25 sacks on the season). The Mustangs should be able to put Carson Beck and Miami in unfavorable third down situations. Couple that with Miami's lack of offensive dominance and you have the recipe for a close game. SMU has lost four homes games under Rhett Lashlee. Three have come by a field goal or less and the other was by eight points to the eventual national runner up. I think SMU keeps this one close and potentially ends Miami's chances for their first ACC title by pulling the outright upset. 

Navy +6.5 North Texas

Navy's schedule has been paper soft thus far, so their 7-0 record is not quite indicative of how good they are. Still, the Midshipmen have banked seven win, including five in the American, and even assuming a loss next week to Notre Dame, are in position to snag a College Football Playoff bid. The Midshipmen continue to excel in their second season under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic and quarterback Blake Horvath. The Midshipmen are averaging over 37 points per game and over seven and a half yards per play. I expect a shootout as they travel to Denton to take on North Texas. The Mean Green have a potent offense of their own, averaging over 46 points per game in their third season under head coach Eric Morris. And while Navy has gotten a lot of flack for their soft schedule, North Texas has not exactly faced a phalanx of strong teams either. The Mean Green have beaten an FCS team (Lamar), a MAC team in overtime (Western Michigan), an unhoused team (Washington State), a Sun Belt team (South Alabama), and a trio of American teams without a winning record (Army, Charlotte, and UTSA). In addition, their victory against Washington State was buoyed by five Cougar turnovers. In their lone game against an opponent in the top half of college football, they were demolished by South Florida. The North Texas defense is better than it has been the past two seasons when they allowed over 37 and 34 points per game respectively, but I expect Navy to shred them on the ground and through the air. These teams seem to be close in strength to me. Consequently, I recommend you back the team catching nearly a full touchdown. 

Temple +4.5 East Carolina

We see it almost every season. An also ran hires a good coach and boom, they are usually (instantly) competitive. Temple is the most recent team to do this after hiring KC Keeler away from Sam Houston State. Keeler won a pair of FCS titles at Delaware and Sam Houston State and later led the Bearkats to success after they joined FBS. Keeler has already guided the Owls to five wins, their most since 2019. Temple has yet to beat a good team (UTSA is probably their best win), but they have been competitive in every game that did not involve a power conference team. Temple's biggest revelation has been their quarterback, Evan Simon. Simon came into the season with twenty career touchdown passes. He has tossed 21 a little more than halfway through the season. After scoring in the teens on average in three of the past five seasons, the Owls are averaging a robust 33.6 points per game this year. If that number holds, it would be their best offensive showing since 2018 when Geoff Collins parlayed running a competent offense at Temple into the Georgia Tech job. The Owls survived a scare at Tulsa last week, but back home, I expect a more complete showing in an upset of the Pirates. 

Minnesota -3.5 Michigan State

The Golden Gophers are coming off a horrendous showing at Iowa where they were dominated by the Hawkeyes in a battle for the Floyd of Rosedale. The porcine trophy has been held by Iowa more often than not this century with the most humorous circumstance coming when Iowa fans tore down Minnesota's goalposts in 2002 after clinching an undefeated Big 10 regular season. In other words, the loss to the Hawkeyes should have been expected and should have almost no impact on the result in this game. While Minnesota was busy losing to Iowa, Michigan State may have shot their wad in an effort to get even with their big brother in East Lansing. The Spartans lost to Michigan for the fourth consecutive time to fall to 3-5 and put themselves in position to miss a bowl game for the fourth consecutive season. The Spartans also do not have a great track record in the games immediately following Michigan since Mark Dantonio's retirement. In the past five seasons, they are 1-4 both straight up and ATS in the game following their in-state battle with all four losses coming by double digits. Minnesota should win this game by at least a touchdown. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

Four winning weeks in five. Lets make it five of six.     

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 26-30

Kansas State +3.5 Kansas

One item I look for when deciding on games that make the weekly post is spreads that are not in line with historical trends. This one fits that category quite well. Kansas has not been favored in this Sunflower Showdown since 2009 and they have not won in this series since 2008! Once Bill Snyder arrived in Manhattan, this series quickly became a battle of hammer and nail. Since 1989 (Snyder's first season), Kansas State is 29-7 straight up in this series. The Wildcats were 23-4 under Snyder (22-1 after a 1-3 start), 6-0 under current head coach Chris Klieman, and 0-3 under Ron Prince. 2025 has been a disappointing season for Kansas State, with the Wildcats sitting at 3-4 after expecting to contend for the Big 12 title. However, all four of their losses have come by six points or less and I expect another tight game in Lawrence. Catching more than a field goal, they are the play. 

Kent State +7.5 Bowling Green

Time to go back to the Kent State well. I backed the Golden Flashes last week as they faced the MAC's best team, Toledo. The stalwart underdogs jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but surrendered 45 consecutive points in a blowout loss. Despite the defeat, Kent State is far better than they have been the past two seasons when they did not record a single FBS victory. On the other sideline, Bowling Green actually beat Toledo two weeks ago, but followed that up with a home loss to Central Michigan. The Falcons have scored twenty or fewer points four times this season and have failed to top 28 points in any game. If they are unlikely to get into the thirties, Kent State should be able to hang around and cover this number. 

Ball State +5.5 Northern Illinois

Thomas Hammock has had a unique career at Northern Illinois to say the least. The former running back for the Huskies has been the coach at his alma mater since 2019 where he has finished winless and won the MAC in consecutive seasons. Since winning the conference in 2021, Northern Illinois is just 11-16 in league play, including a sterling 0-3 mark this season. The Huskies have not gotten their offense on track, as they are averaging just 12.3 points per game (11.2 versus FBS opponents) and have not scored more than 21 points in any game. Yet, here they are, laying more than a field goal against a Ball State team that has won three of five since an inauspicious beginning to the Mike Uremovich era. Uremovich also has some history at Northern Illinois. He was an assistant coach in 2012 (MAC title) and offensive coordinator in both 2017 and 2018 (MAC title). I think the Cardinals are poised to pull off the upset and win their fourth game of the season. Northern Illinois has been horrendous as a home favorite (and a favorite overall) under Thomas Hammock. They are 3-14 ATS as a home favorite against FBS opponents, having dropped ten of those games outright. I know it doesn't apply in this situation, but they are also 2-9 ATS as a road favorite, with seven outright losses. For those keeping track, they are 5-23 ATS as a favorite with an amazing seventeen outright losses! I've backed Ball State the past two weeks and they have split for me. As a wise man once said, two out of three ain't bad. 

NC State +6.5 Pittsburgh

Since benching Eli Holstein in favor of Mason Heintschel, the Pitt Panthers have won three in a row, while scoring 112 total points (at least thirty in each game). But let's consider the trio of teams they have beaten in that span. First up was Boston College. The Eagles are 1-6 and in real danger of finishing without an FBS win. Next, they won at Florida State. That win has also lost a little luster as the once promising season for the Seminoles has unraveled. Florida State has dropped four consecutive games and are in danger of getting their coach fired and potentially not qualifying for a bowl game. And their most recent victory came against a Syracuse team has struggled mightily since their starting quarterback went down. The Orange have dropped three in a row, failing to score twenty points in any game. NC State represents Pitt's stiffest test with Heintschel starting. The Wolfpack have a good quarterback (CJ Bailey), an explosive running back (Hollywood Smothers), and have played a strong schedule to date. The Wolfpack have beaten decent to solid teams (East Carolina, Virginia, and Wake Forest), played one of the better ACC teams tough on the road (Duke), and been blown out by a true national contender (Notre Dame). Their most recent data point was that road loss to Notre Dame which is inflating this spread. These two teams are midlevel ACC schools, both in recent history and this season. Pitt was able to rise above their station and win the league in 2021, but since then, they are 13-15 in ACC play and just 4-6 ATS as a home favorite against power conference teams. Doesn't this just seem like a game Pitt drops under Pat Narduzzi? The Panthers have won three in a row against less than stellar competition and NC State rolls in off a bye. I like the Wolfpack to keep this close and potentially win outright. 

Tulsa +5.5 Temple

I know a few years in college football can seem like a lifetime, but Temple used to be good at this sport. Between 2009 and 2019, under five different head coaches, the Owls finished with winning records in eight seasons, spent some time in the AP Poll, and even won a conference title. However, beginning with the pandemic impacted 2020 campaign, Temple had been a laughing stock for the previous half decade. The Owls finished with a single victory in 2020, and then won three games in each of the next four seasons. But, much like they did in the late aughts, the Owls seemed to have nailed their most recent coaching hire. KC Keeler won a pair of FCS national titles and guided Sam Houston State to ten wins in their second season of FBS play. Seven games into his career at Temple, he has already guided the Owls to four victories and has them in position to play in their first bowl game since 2019. The betting market seems to understand how good Keeler is. Between 2020 and 2024, the Owls were road favorites on just two occasions (versus Akron in 2021 and versus Navy in 2020). This marks the third time they have been a road favorite this season alone. In addition, the Owls won just one road game between 2020 and 2024 (the 2021 road trip to Akron). They have already won two road games this season. Can they make it a hat trick? Perhaps, but I think this number is a shade too high. Their previous road victories (and covers as road favorites) have come against two of the worst teams in FBS (Charlotte and Massachusetts). Tulsa has a bad record (2-5), but the Golden Hurricane have endured a tough American schedule, having faced East Carolina, Memphis, Navy, and Tulane during their 0-4 league start. Those four teams are a combined 22-5 overall (11-2 in American play). Temple is good, but should they be laying more than a field goal on the road against a competent conference foe? I say no. 

Washington State -1.5 Toledo

Washington State has dropped two tight games in a row to ranked power conference teams. In fact, the Cougars have played a relatively tough schedule overall. In addition to their two most recent games against Ole Miss and Virginia, the Cougars have played their annual Apple Cup clash with Washington and gone on the road to North Texas, a contender in the American. They dropped all four of those games, but their home blowout of San Diego State has aged well, with the Aztecs rolling off four consecutive wins since their loss on the Palouse. Now the Cougars come back home for the first time in more than a month and will face a MAC team for just the third time in school history. Toledo has made eleven Mountain Standard Time or Pacific Standard Time trips in the BCS/CFP era (since 1998). They are 3-8 on those road trips with five of the losses coming by double digits. Their three victories all came against Mountain West teams that finished with losing records (Wyoming in 2012, Nevada in 2017, and Colorado State in 2019). None of those teams are as good Washington State. Little was expected of the Cougars as they played a nomadic schedule in their second season since the (temporary) dissolution of the Pac-12. However, head coach Jimmy Rogers, winner of the 2023 FCS national title at South Dakota State, has the Cougars in position to qualify for a bowl game. The Cougars do not have a conference title to win, so the Rockets should have their full attention. Meanwhile, this game is effectively meaningless for a Toledo squad that has no hopes to qualify for the College Football Playoff and is behind the eight ball to qualify for the MAC Championship Game as well. Take the Cougars to easily cover this small number. 

Georgia Southern +1.5 Arkansas State

The Red Wolves from Arkansas State have been getting away with it lately. They have won their past two games each by a single point. Against Texas State, the Bobcats scored late, but missed an extra point and Arkansas State drove down the field to tie and then win with a made extra point. Then in a midweek game against South Alabama, the Jaguars were up two, but missed a short field goal allowing Arkansas State to drive down a kick a field goal of their own to win. The Red Wolves have struggled to move the ball and score points (except on the last drive of the past two games). They are averaging just under nineteen points per game against FBS opponents and have scored more than 21 points just once (the aforementioned victory against Texas State). Meanwhile, Georgia Southern entered 2025 with high expectations. The Eagles were the consensus pick to finish second in the Sun Belt East behind James Madison. They opened the season with a tough two game trip to California, losing to Fresno State and Southern Cal by a combined 67 points. However, since then, they have played much better ball. They beat Jacksonville State and dominated their in-state rival Georgia State, while losing a tight game to Southern Miss. James Madison handled them, but the Red Wolves are closer to their weight class as indicated by the spread. Georgia Southern is going to score (scored at least 35 points in four of their past five games) and I don't think Arkansas State can keep up. The wrong team is favored here. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VIII

Three winning weeks in four. Lets make it four of five.     

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 22-27

Central Michigan +3.5 Bowling Green

Last week Bowling Green pulled off a shocking upset in their I-75 rivalry with Toledo, but if you were paying attention to the recent history of that series, perhaps the result was not so shocking. Toledo has consistently been the best program in the MAC under head coach Jason Candle, but they have also consistently suffered an inexplicable loss (or two) each season. In Candle's nine and half seasons in charge, the Rockets have dropped nine games as a double digit favorite, including two this season to severely dampen their MAC title hopes. They have also struggled in the rivalry with Bowling Green. The Rockets have been favored in each of the past ten meetings, including nine times by double digits. However, they are only 6-4 straight up and 3-7 ATS. In other words, last week's upset was more about Toledo than it was Bowling Green. I'm sure the Falcon faithful are hyped to have a shot at a bowl game and a former Heisman Trophy winner patrolling the sideline. However, despite the Falcons 3-1 record against FCS and non-power conference teams, they have been outgained by more than 60 yards per game and nearly 0.7 yards per play. Off that emotional win, they must prepare for a team coming off a bye that is one of the more run oriented non-option teams in the country. Central Michigan runs the ball on 68% of their offensive snaps and against non-power conference teams, has done so with great success (over 250 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry). I think Central Michigan is primed to pull the upset, so you may not even need the three and a half points. 

Boston College -1.5 Connecticut

Boston College has dropped five consecutive games after opening the season with a victory over the Seven Blocks of Granite at Fordham. A brief glance at their remaining schedule reveals this may be their last chance for a win before the season finale against former Big East foe Syracuse. Two ranked teams are on the schedule (Georgia Tech and Notre Dame) as well as the past two ACC Championship Game losers (Louisville and SMU). Things are not going great for second year head coach Bill O'Brien. Can they get right against a fellow northeastern school? Connecticut is well on their way to a third bowl game in four seasons under head coach Jim Mora Jr. That is quite an accomplishment for a school that went nearly a decade as one of the worst teams in FBS. Despite their success under Mora, the Huskies have mostly buoyed their record versus non-power conference schools. In regular season games, they are 20-9 against FCS and non-power conference opponents. However, they are just 1-12 against power conference opponents, including an 0-8 record on the road. Their one victory against a power conference team? It came against Boston College in 2022. For that reason, and since Boston College has an unenviable remaining schedule, I think the Eagles will be ready for the Huskies. I expect a lot of points to be scored with these two teams mostly viewing defense as an optional portion of football. The betting market seems to agree (over/under is currently 59.5). With an expected high point total, Boston College should score enough to cover the small number. 

South Carolina +5.5 Oklahoma

This road trip to South Carolina (a team that was ranked thirteenth in the preseason AP Poll) represents a reprieve for Oklahoma from the rigors of their SEC schedule. Don't believe me, take a look. After their visit to Columbia, the Sooners remaining five games are all against teams currently ranked sixteenth or better in the AP Poll. Despite their defensive prowess under head coach Brent Venables, I would not expect much better than a .500 record the rest of the way. Oklahoma has played ten SEC games games since joining the conference. Chronologically, they have scored 15, 27, 3, 9, 14, 23, 24, 17, 24, and 6 points. I'll do the math for you. That is 16.2 points per game. And if you watched their most recent game against Texas, it does not appear that quarterback John Mateer is healthy. Mateer had surgery on his hand less than a month ago and as you may have guessed, surgery, no matter how minor, is not conducive to playing high level football. Mateer threw three interceptions against the Longhorns last week, and the team averaged under four yards per play and failed to reach 300 yards of offense. South Carolina has offensive problems of their own, having been outgained by South Carolina State earlier in the year, but the Gamecocks can rush the passer and cause havoc in the backfield. They also have good special teams, returning three punts for touchdowns thus far on the season. This figures to be an ugly game and as such, I like the underdog with great special teams to keep this close and potentially win outright. 

Kent State +26.5 Toledo

The Kent State Golden Flashes earned their first victory against an FBS opponent in nearly three seasons last week against Massachusetts. The winless Minutemen may well be the worst team in FBS, but Kent State dominated them in an easy 42-6 win. Can the Golden Flashes start an FBS winning streak against the most talented team in the MAC? I wouldn't back the Golden Flashes on the moneyline, but I think they can keep this one within four touchdowns. The Golden Flashes actually have a competent offense for the first time since Sean Lewis was in charge. In 2023 and 2024, they averaged just over fifteen points per game against MAC opponents. They have scored 70 total points as they have split their first two MAC games this season. Quarterback Dru DeShields has played well, averaging over eight yards per pass while throwing nine touchdowns through the first half of the season. The Golden Flashes also have a good kickoff return game, with the fantastically named Da'Realyst Clark having returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. Meanwhile the prohibitive conference favorite, Toledo, already has two conference losses and is coming off blowing a huge lead in a rivalry game to Bowling Green. How motivated will they be to run it up against Kent State? I think the Golden Flashes put up a fight, but ultimately fall to the Rockets. 

Ball State -1.5 Akron

Western Michigan put on a defensive clinic last week, limiting Ball State to 88 yards of total offense in a 42-0 shellacking. That continued an impressive trend for the Broncos who may well have the best defense in the MAC. Western Michigan is 3-0 in MAC play and has allowed just 16 total points. Fortunately for Ball State, Akron does not have the same defensive prowess and will be unlikely to put the clamps on them. Akron is 2-22 on the road under head coach Joe Moorhead and this is their smallest underdog role away from home (they were favored at Kent State last season). Akron does not stop the run, permitting over 200 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry to MAC foes this season (three games). Akron has had some limited success passing the ball and will hit their share of positive plays against a bad Ball State pass defense, but the Akron offensive line is weak (15 sacks allowed in their five games against non-power conference FBS teams) and quarterback Ben Finley is fully capable of an interception or fumble. Ball State defensive lineman Nathan Voorhis (distant cousin of Jason?) had three and half sacks in the Cardinals upset of Ohio two weeks ago. I expect he gets to Finley at least once and helps Ball State equal last season's win total. 

SMU +9.5 Clemson

The Mustangs have won nineteen consecutive (regular season) conference games stretching all the way back to 2022 (between the American and the ACC). I had to give the regular season qualifier as they famously clawed their way out of a big hole only to lose to Clemson on a last second field goal in the ACC Championship Game last season. To get to an even twenty, they will have to win at Death Valley, a place that only...checks notes...the last four power conference visitors have won. That's right folks, beginning with Louisville last season, Clemson has dropped four consecutive home games to power conference teams (South Carolina, LSU, and Syracuse). Despite those struggles, the Tigers are still being priced in the betting market like they were between 2015 and 2020. Victories against the very bottom of the ACC (North Carolina and Boston College) have made seemingly everyone forget what happened in September. For SMU, this marks just the second time they have been an underdog in an ACC game. The first came in their inaugural ACC road trip to Louisville last year. They entered as a touchdown underdog, but won by a touchdown. I think something eerily similar may happen on Saturday. SMU is not as good as they were last season when they rolled through the ACC unbeaten with just two victories coming by one score. However, Clemson is also not as good as they were last season. And in case you forgot, the betting line for last year's ACC Championship Game was SMU -3 on a neutral field. This line implies the difference between these two teams is roughly a touchdown in Clemson's favor on a neutral field. Has the combined rating for these two teams moved ten points since last December? I don't think so. Back the Pony Express and don't be shocked if they stretch their conference win streak to twenty games. 

Maryland +3.5 UCLA

If this game were played two weeks ago, what would the betting line have been? Maryland would have entered with an unblemished record and UCLA would have been winless and on 0-12 watch. Maryland by a touchdown? Has there been a combined ten-point swing in a fortnight? UCLA has obviously improved, knocking off Penn State and setting the stage for the Nittany Lions to fire James Franklin. They also traveled to Michigan State and knocked off the Spartans. Meanwhile, Maryland has dropped a pair of tight home games to Washington and Nebraska. The Huskies and Cornhuskers are a notch below the top teams in the Big 10 (Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon), but they have combined for a 10-2 record. In other words, both those teams are better than UCLA. I know the venue for this game is the Rose Bowl and not College Park, but this is an evening kick (7:00 EST), not a late night game, so while travel may be an issue, this game will not be kicking off at bedtime for the Maryland players. The betting market has moved too far toward UCLA. The Bruins don't get any pass rush (just six sacks all season), so winning (and covering) this game will be on the shoulders of the offense. Offensive coordinator Jerry Neuheisel has done no wrong in his first two games calling plays. I think regression comes for the Bruins and Maryland leaves the Golden State with their fifth win of the season. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

We were oh so close to three consecutive winning weeks, but couldn't quite get there. We'll try and begin another streak this week.    

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 18-24

Louisiana-Lafayette +17.5 James Madison

The Ragin' Cajuns are not good and James Madison is probably either the best or second best team in the Sun Belt. However, both participants in this game are run heavy, so there should be a dearth of possessions, more variance, and less time for James Madison to get margin. Louisiana-Lafayette has run the ball on 58% of their plays from scrimmage in 2025 despite a 2-3 record where they have trailed for a majority of the season. They have also averaged a healthy six yards per carry. Meanwhile, James Madison is even more run heavy, keeping the ball on the ground on 64% of their offensive plays. The Dukes passing game has not gotten on track, with the team averaging under six yards per pass. In addition, the Dukes may be looking ahead to next week's clash with Old Dominion that will likely decide the Sun Belt East. Louisiana-Lafayette has also been great as a road underdog under Michael Desormeaux. The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 ATS as when catching points in conference play away from Lafayette. Running teams and a running clock make the Ragin' Cajuns the play. 

Maryland +6.5 Nebraska

Maryland was this close to being a sleeper Big 10 team at the midway point of the regular season. The Terrapins led Washington 20-0 in the second half, but surrendered 24 straight points to fall to the Huskies and end their perfect start to 2025. With no time to mourn the loss of their perfect record, the Terrapins welcome another middle class Big 10 team to College Park. Nebraska also has but one blemish on their record in 2025. The Cornhuskers lost to Michigan a few weeks ago, but otherwise have been perfect. However, this tilt in mid-October represents their first true road game of the year! A quick perusal through college football schedules tells me that Missouri is the only other FBS team not to play on the road this season. At least Nebraska has played a neutral site game. Missouri does not leave the friendly confines of Faurot Field until next week. This is only the third time Nebraska has been a road favorite under Matt Rhule. The Cornhuskers are 1-1 both ATS and straight up in their previous forays as a road favorite. Their win and cover came against 1-11 Purdue last season for what its worth. I don't think this Nebraska team should be laying nearly a touchdown on the road against almost any Big 10 opponent. Their victory on the scoreboard looked impressive against Michigan State last week, but a blocked punt and a muffed kickoff provided the winning margin. If Maryland can avoid last week's loss beating them twice, I think they have a great shot at upsetting the Cornhuskers at home. 

Virginia Tech +14.5 Georgia Tech

I was wrong about Brent Key. I thought their success at the end of 2022 once he was named the interim coach was due to randomness and I believed they settled for the former player who rallied the troops after Geoff Collins was fired. But Key has brought competency to Atlanta. Notice I said competency. The Yellow Jackets are a solid ACC team, but they are not the thirteenth best team in the country as the AP Poll might have you believe. The Yellow Jackets tend to play up or down to their level of competition. That is a function of the offense they run. That offense involves a lot of runs (many by quarterback Haynes King) and a constantly moving clock. This results in fewer possessions and more variance. Hence, Georgia Tech is great as an underdog and bad as a favorite. They have been especially bad as big favorites. Georgia Tech has been favored by double digits against an FBS opponent four times under Key. They are 1-3 ATS, having lost one game outright and eking out another in overtime. This is the second most points they have ever been favored by against a power conference team. They were favored by fifteen and a half in their last game at Wake Forest. The Yellow Jackets won that game in overtime, but if not for some questionable officiating would already have a loss on their ledger. Virginia Tech is playing out the string under an interim coach, but the defense has played well since Brent Pry was fired. Their past three opponents have netted just 149 yards rushing. One of the opponents was an FCS team, but their two league opponents in that span averaged under two and a half yards per carry. The Virginia Tech offense is still an enigma (or bad) with quarterback Kyron Drones playing with the consistency of a true freshman despite recently making a colonoscopy appointment. If Drones just plays an average game (i.e., not too many mistakes), the Virginia Tech defense should do enough to keep them in this game. 

Ball State +9.5 Western Michigan

The Cardinals and Broncos combined to finish 7-9 in MAC play last season and not much was expected of them heading into 2025. The preseason consensus had them both finishing in the bottom half of the conference. However, through three combined conference games, neither has suffered a loss. In addition, each has beaten a team expected to appear in the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan knocked off Toledo a few weeks ago, and then last week, Ball State upset defending MAC champ, Ohio. Western Michigan has allowed just 16 total points in their first two MAC games, but they are probably due for some regression the rest of the way. Toledo and Massachusetts combined for eight red zone trips against the Broncos, but managed just three field goals in those trips. Holding opponents to such an incredibly low red zone conversion rate is unlikely to continue over their final six league games. As for Ball State, the Cardinals have hit their stride after struggling in their first two games against power conference opponents. The Cardinals scored three total points in road trips at Purdue and Auburn, but have won two of three with a good running game and complimentary passing attack. Ball State prefers to run, with 64% of their offensive plays coming on the ground. That should keep the clock moving, limit possessions, and allow them to keep this one close against a team that has averaged just over 14 points per game against FBS opposition. 

Southern Cal -2.5 Michigan

Plenty of ink has been spilled and key strokes punched on Southern Cal's struggles away from home under Lincoln Riley, particularly on their trips to the east coast. The Trojans are 0-4 both ATS and straight up on Big 10 road trips to the central or eastern time zone since joining the league before last season. All the losses have been close, including last season's upset defeat at Michigan. The Trojans have two more trips east this season (Nebraska and Notre Dame), but this week, they will be in the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium, where they have played well, even during last season's disappointing 7-6 campaign. The only teams to beat them at home last season both made the semifinals of the College Football Playoff (Notre Dame and Penn State). In fact, the Trojans were 4-0 ATS as a home favorite last season and are 13-7 ATS in the role under Riley. This is also the smallest home favorite they have been under Riley (previous low was as a four point favorite in 2022 against Notre Dame). I have been skeptical of Michigan all season, so I see no reason not to fade them on the road against a quality opponent that is coming off a bye. Southern Cal still has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff, but with road trips to Notre Dame and Oregon remaining on the schedule, they must beat Michigan to maintain any illusion hope for a CFP bid. Take the Trojans to cover this small number against a team making a cross country road trip. 

South Carolina +8.5 LSU

The Tigers and Gamecocks both began the season ranked in the top thirteen of the AP Poll. In this new era of college football, that means they were both expected to be in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. However, if South Carolina loses this game, their CFP aspirations will be finished and an LSU loss would put their hopes on life support. Both teams also entered the season with likely NFL draft picks taking snaps either under center or in the shotgun. But both have struggled through the first third of the season. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier leads an offense that has not topped twenty points in their three games versus power conference opponents. Meanwhile, South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers has thrown a good deep ball (averages over ten yards per pass), but has taken too many sacks and has missed time with a concussion. Sellers injury occurred a month ago and he has played in the past two games, so he should be fully healthy on this trip to Death Valley. South Carolina's defense has slipped a little from last season, but they should be able to keep the Gamecocks within striking distance against an LSU offense that is fundamentally broken. 

New Mexico +16.5 Boise State

Its been feast or famine for Boise State through five games in 2025. In their three wins, the Broncos have averaged a robust 49 points per game. In their two losses, they have scored fourteen combined points. A lot of that is due to strength of schedule. Their two losses have come to teams currently ranked in the AP Poll (South Florida and Notre Dame), while their victories have come against teams with a combined two FBS wins (Eastern Washington, Air Force, and Appalachian State). Despite their name brand recognition and bid to the College Football Playoff last season, Boise State's hopes to crash the party are likely nil. If they win out, they will be 10-2 with no (likely) ranked wins and two non-competitive losses. I think its fair to question how motivated they will be to run through their next seven Mountain West opponents. The first of those seven is a frisky New Mexico team led by first year head coach Jason Eck. Eck came to Albuquerque after a successful three year run at Idaho and has the Lobos at 3-2 (the same record as Boise) with respectable road losses to Michigan and San Jose State. Eck brought his quarterback from Idaho (Jack Layne) with him and the offense has remained strong despite the loss of last year's starting quarterback, Devon Dampier. The defense has also improved and is on pace to allow fewer than thirty points per game for the first time in three seasons. After spending the better part of a decade at the bottom of the Mountain West, the Lobos have become middle class over the past two seasons and with the imminent departure of some of the stronger programs in the conference, could be poised for bigger things over the coming seasons. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. I would be shocked if New Mexico won this game outright, but this is not a vintage Boise State squad, so the Lobos should hang around for four quarters. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

Back to back winning weeks. Are things coming together? The overall record is still poor, but much better than it was two weeks ago. There are some real ugly dogs in this week's post, so stay away if you don't have a strong stomach.   

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 15-20

Colorado State +5.5 San Diego State

San Diego State has had a weird start to the 2025 season. Not bad or good, just weird. They have won three games which equals their win total from last season, but the results have been all over the place. They have recorded two shutout wins during which they have scored 72 total points, with one coming against an FCS team and the other an ACC team that is otherwise unbeaten. They also won an ugly 6-3 game against a MAC school and in their only loss allowed 36 points to a team that has not scored more than 24 points in any other game this season. Insert shoulder shrug emoji here. Now they open conference play against a team set to join them in whatever they are calling the new Pac-12 next year. Colorado State is just 1-3 through the first third of the season, with their lone win coming against an FCS opponent. However, they have played a strong power conference team (Washington), a solid Group of Five team (UTSA), and a future Pac-whatever team (Washington State). The loss to UTSA came by a single point and in their loss to Washington State, they scored only three points despite multiple drives that ended in Washington State territory. They failed on fourth down three times, including once inside the Cougar ten yard line. They fumbled inside the Cougar twenty yard line. Plus they also missed two field goals. Turnovers, fourth down failures, and missed kicks contribute significantly to the outcome of one game, but are not very useful for predicting what will happen next. San Diego State has scored four offensive touchdowns in their three games against FBS opponents. That is not a recipe for covering spreads as a favorite unless the Aztecs are counting on some defensive or special teams touchdowns. I think this game ends up like a classic 1970s NFL game. Not necessarily in style of play, but in final score. A final of 17-14, 20-17, or 21-17 seems quite likely. Take the undervalued dog against the overvalued favorite. 

Ball State +14.5 Ohio

The Mike Uremovich era began rather inauspiciously at Ball State. The Cardinals lost their first two games (against power conference teams) by a combined score of 73-3 and generated under 300 total yards combined. However, since the schedule has eased up, the Cardinals have scored 34 and 25 respectively against a solid FCS team (New Hampshire) and  mid-level non-power FBS team (Connecticut). The Cardinals also rang up over 400 yards of offense in each game. They were especially strong on the ground, rolling up nearly 500 combined yards rushing after being held to negative rushing yards by Auburn. Now the Cardinals open MAC play off a bye against a team that is potentially the league's best. In a rugged non-conference slate, the defending MAC champs went 1-2 against a trio of power conference teams (beat West Virginia). In their non-conference finale, they beat an FCS team (Gardner-Webb) and then opened MAC play with a two touchdown victory against Bowling Green. The Bobcats have the best quarterback in the MAC (Parker Navarro), but their run defense has been suspect. In the past two weeks, Gardner-Webb and Bowling Green have each rushed for nearly 200 yards against the Bobcats at over five yards per carry. That plays right into the hands of a big underdog. Expect Ball State to keep the ball on the ground and chew up the clock against Ohio. As previously mentioned, the Cardinals are also off a bye, while Ohio is playing a game for the sixth consecutive week. Catching double digits at home, the Cardinals are the play.  

Wisconsin +17.5 Michigan

I like the Badgers in this spot for a couple of reasons. For starters, they have played good run defense through the first quarter of the season. Opponents are averaging just over two yards per carry and while that includes two games against Miami of Ohio and Middle Tennessee, it also includes their showings against Alabama and Maryland. Alabama rushed for 72 yards on 22 carries against the Badgers which represents the high water mark their defense has permitted in both yardage and yards per carry (3.27). Their pass defense has been another story (allowed over eight yards per pass), but that is skewed by Alabama's evisceration of their secondary. Michigan still has a (relatively) unproven freshman quarterback and will attempt to win this game on the ground. They romped through Nebraska in their last game, averaging over eight yards per carry and have rushed for over 1000 yards through their first four games. I think they will meet some resistance against the Badgers and be forced into more passing situations than they are comfortable with. Second, this spread is an historical outlier in this series. The Badgers and Wolverines have played twelve times since 2005 and Wisconsin has actually been favored seven times, including each of the past three meetings. Michigan has not been close to this big a favorite since they were favored by thirteen points in 2006. Finally, Wisconsin is coming off a bye after two consecutive horrendous performances. With four teams currently ranked in the AP Poll left on their schedule, not to mention games against Iowa, Washington, and Minnesota, Wisconsin is probably going to finish 4-8 or worse. However, with the bye week to reset, I expect a spirited effort on Saturday. The only issue I have with taking the Badgers is the dual questions of how do they and how much can they score? Outside of Middle Tennessee, Wisconsin has not scored more than seventeen points in any game this season. Still, with both teams deferring to the running game, the clock should be consistently running, so if they can score ten points, they should cover this number. 

Massachusetts +13.5 Western Michigan

So its come to this? We are backing the Minutemen of Massachusetts. I understand if you don't have the stomach to take a winless team that somehow lost to Bryant (not Kobe or Paul Bear). But hear me out. Since losing to Bryant, the Minutemen have played Iowa and Missouri, and not particularly well, I might add. But what can we really tell from those games? Massachusetts is totally outclassed by those Big 10 and SEC teams. Now they get to face a team in their own weight class, at home no less. And rest assured, Western Michigan is in their weight class. The Broncos have won their past two games and thanks to their inexplicable win against Toledo are tied for first in the MAC. Despite scoring 47 points last week against Rhode Island, the Broncos have yet to eclipse five yards per play in any game this season. Their victory against Toledo says more about the Rockets and their volatility in MAC play (look at Jason Candle's record as a favorite) than it does about Western Michigan's quality. The Broncos have been a road favorite four previous times under Lance Taylor. They are 2-2 ATS in those games, but the covers have come in games where they were a one and three point favorite respectively. In the other games where they were favored by seven and ten points, they lost one outright and won the other by three. I'm not sure if the Minutemen can notch their first MAC win since 2015 (don't worry, they were out of the league for a decade and are not riding an eighty game losing skid), but they will cover this ridiculously high number. 

Louisiana-Monroe +11.5 Northwestern

Last week I faded Northwestern when they were a decent sized home favorite against UCLA. The Wildcats stormed out to a 17-0 lead in the first half, but did not score again and had to hold on for dear life against the Bruins. The Wildcats have one of the worst passing games of all power conference teams. Quarterback Preston Stone, who threw 28 touchdown passes two seasons ago for SMU, has thrown exactly one touchdown pass in three games against FBS opponents (versus six interceptions). The Wildcats have scored three, fourteen, and seventeen points against FBS competition. The optimist might point out those point totals have been steadily increasing and expect continued improvement. They might be right. Sort of. It would not shock me if Northwestern scores or even eclipses twenty points on Saturday. However, I would not expect them to score much more than that. The oddsmakers and betting market don't either. The total in this game is forty and a half implying the Wildcats are expected to score around 25 points. That seems a little sanguine to me. Louisiana-Monroe plays like you want a double digit underdog to play. They have run the ball nearly 64% of the time in 2025 and they have done so quite well. The Warhawks are averaging nearly six yards per carry, and that total includes their low output against Alabama. The Warhawks will not be nearly as overmatched against the Wildcats. Northwestern has allowed over five yards per carry on the season and that includes their game against one of the worst teams in FCS (Western Illinois). The Wildcats have a road trip at Penn State next week, but they better not look past a Louisiana-Monroe team that is capable of pulling the outright upset in Evanston. 

Michigan State +11.5 Nebraska

Nebraska has been a big favorite numerous times over the past few seasons. However, most of those instances have come against teams outside the power conferences. Since Scott Frost's arrival in 2018 and continuing through the Matt Rhule era, the Cornhuskers have been double digit favorites against power conference teams just six times (all Big 10 opponents). They are a respectable 3-3 ATS in such games, but the covers have come against Illinois in 2018 (4-8 record), Northwestern in 2021 (3-9), and Purdue last season (1-11). Against more respectable opponents (Illinois in 2019 and 2020 and Northwestern in 2023), the Cornhuskers have failed to cover and have even lost outright. Michigan State will not be participating in the College Football Playoff this season, but the Spartans are 3-1 and have an outside shot at a bowl game. And like Nebraska, they are off a bye after their first loss of the season. Michigan State should be able to take advantage of Nebraska's poor run defense. The two power conference teams Nebraska has faced (Cincinnati and Michigan) rushed for nearly 500 yards at over seven yards per clip. Michigan State has been decent on the ground, averaging around 130 yards per game at nearly four yards per carry against their two power conference opponents. In addition, Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith has been an underdog covering machine at both Corvallis and East Lansing. His teams at Oregon State and Michigan State are a combined 17-9 ATS as a road underdog. Nebraska should not be favored against any Big 10 team by double digits save perhaps Northwestern and maybe Purdue. Take the Spartans to give the Cornhuskers all they can handle in Lincoln. 

Florida State +4.5 Miami

Last week I faded Florida State as they were playing their first road game against a quality opponent after a month at home. Miami is in an eerily similar situation this week. The Hurricanes pulled a narrow upset over Notre Dame in their opener and have not been challenged since against a trio of in-state teams of varying quality (Bethune-Cookman, South Florida, and Florida). The Hurricane offense wrecked Bethune-Cookman and South Florida (over 1100 combined yards), but against the two power conference teams on their schedule (Notre Dame and Florida), they have averaged under five yards per play. Florida State's defense suffered some breakdowns last week against Virginia, but the Seminoles actually outgained the Cavaliers by 74 yards and averaged a yard more per play. Florida State had a fluky interception inside the Virginia red zone and seemed ready to take control of the game after spotting Virginia a 14-0 lead. Last week's loss to the Cavaliers was tough, but the Seminoles are still alive in both the ACC race and the College Football Playoff. I expect them to be motivated when their unbeaten in-state rival travels to Tallahassee. Miami is a shade overrated by the betting public (Notre Dame's best defensive performance by both total yards and yards per play came against the Hurricanes) and as they venture away from home, I expect another top ten team to go down.