Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 4-3
Arizona +4.5 Houston
It happened late Saturday night and was a little off the beaten path, but one of the biggest upsets of the opening weekend occurred in Tucson. The Wildcats began the Kevin Sumlin era by losing at home as a double-digit favorite to BYU. Darkhorse Heisman candidate Khalil Tate rushed for fourteen total yards and threw for less than 200 against the Cougars. This continued a disturbing trend for Tate. After rushing for over 1200 yards in a six-game span last season, during which the Wildcats went 5-1, Tate has now rushed for a combined 132 yards over his last four games (all losses). So after sixty minutes of game time and a little over four hours of real time, Arizona has gone from a sleeper to win the Pac-12 South to being in real danger of starting 0-2. Kevin Sumlin's seat may be warm at halftime of his second game. This trip to Houston will be a Noon kick, but H-town should be sufficiently rocking for the visit. Arizona is the first of two Power Five opponents on Houston's schedule this season (they travel to Texas Tech next week). A win in both games would put Houston into the top 25 and give them a decent shot at being the Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six. Houston won in Tucson last season in their delayed opener (their scheduled in-state battle with UTSA was canceled). That was before Tate was unleashed on the world. In fact. Brandon Dawkins, who later transferred to Indiana, took the lion's share of snaps in that game. Moving forward to this season, Houston was challenged for a half in their opener, trailing against a Rice team that narrowly edged Prairie View in Week Zero. The Cougars pulled away in the second half and beat their former Southwest and Conference USA rival for the fifth straight time. Opening against Rice is always good for your won/loss record, but Arizona will represent a significant upgrade in competition. Desperate teams also tend to be dangerous and I expect Arizona to come out motivated against Houston. The market is overreacting to Arizona's loss to BYU. Take the Wildcats to keep this one close and potentially win outright.
Georgia Tech -3 South Florida
Not gonna lie to you. I'm extremely hesitant to back the Yellow Jackets as a road favorite. The Stingers have not covered their last six games in that role and have actually lost all six of those games straight up! You have to go back nearly four years to find Georgia Tech's last cover as a road favorite. So why should you back them now? For one thing, this game is taking place in early September and not late November. By then, I expect South Florida to be a very dangerous team. But for now, the Bulls are still adjusting to life without Quinton Flowers. Flowers guided the Bulls to 21 wins, a ton of points, and a pair of ranked finishes over the past two seasons, but he is now trying to stick in the NFL as a running back. Sans Flowers, the Bulls did not have much trouble vanquishing Elon last weekend, but against a Power Five team, particularly one that runs a unique offense, things will probably be different. Plus, even with Flowers, the Bulls did not exactly put away marquee opponents over the past few seasons. Since 2015, the Bulls are 5-3 against Power Five teams, but only two of those wins came against bowl squads. In fact, those two wins actually came in bowl games against South Carolina and Texas Tech, in overtime and by four points respectively. Both those teams also finished just 6-7 after the bowl loss. Georgia Tech has a tough schedule and will need all the non-conference wins they can muster to get back to a bowl game. I expect them to be able to handle an inexperienced Group of Five team on the road.
Coastal Carolina +10 UAB
My apologies for those that were on Coastal last week. I figured the Chanticleers would put up more of a fight against the Gamecocks in Columbia. While Coastal did not put up much resistance defensively, they were able to put a few solid drives together. Without the benefit of a single turnover or any good field position, the Chanticleers put together four scoring drives (albeit just one of the touchdown variety) against an above-average SEC defense. The Chanticleers also played the underdog role to perfection, at least on offense. They gave a vintage Kansas State performance on that side of the ball, taking their time getting to the line and milking the clock. The game only featured ten possessions for each side. Unfortunately, the defense didn't quite live up to its end of the bargain in allowing the Gamecocks to score touchdowns on seven of those possessions. Now the Chanticleers return to beautiful Conway, South Carolina for their home opener. Their guests will be the Blazers from Birmingham, fresh off their second bowl appearance in school history. UAB was not challenged in their opener as they blasted Savannah State from the FCS 52-0. I wouldn't put too much stock into that game though as the Tigers are what insiders refer to as a bad football team. From 2014 through 2017, the Tigers went 7-36 with eight losses to FBS teams. The Tigers allowed at least 52 points in each of those FBS losses and failed to score more than thirteen points in any game themselves. And lest you think those losses all came against top-tier FBS competition, here are those eight teams listed alphabetically: Akron, Appalachian State, BYU, Colorado State, Georgia Southern (twice), Middle Tennessee State, and Southern Miss. Several of those teams qualified for bowl games, but none reside in a Power Five conference. UAB will see a significant uptick in competition on the road against the Chanticleers. In addition, UAB will be in an unusual situation as they enter this game as a double-digit favorite. The Blazers were favored on the road once last season, by about a touchdown in a game they lost to Charlotte. I'm very happy that UAB is back from the dead and in contention for a second consecutive bowl game, but the Blazers are getting a little too much love from oddsmakers and the public. Take Coastal to keep this one close and put a scare into UAB.
Louisiana-Monroe +6 Southern Miss
Can the market overreact to a team most probably don't even know is FBS? Judging by this spread, I think the answer is a resounding 'Yes'. The Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe edged Southeastern Louisiana 34-31 on Thursday night, and the tight margin has this spread a little higher than it should be. The Warhawks entered the third season of the Matt Viator era with designs on their first bowl bid since 2012. The offense made great strides in Viator's second season, averaging ten more points per game than they did in 2016. With nine starters back, the hope was that the offense could win its fair share of shootouts in 2018. The offense did put 34 points on the board, but the passing game didn't have any explosive plays against the Lions. The Warhawks averaged under ten yards per completion after averaging over fourteen last season. Look for that number to trend upward against a Southern Miss team that did not struggle against their FCS punching bag. The Golden Eagles hung the double-nickel on Jackson State and cruised in their opener. However, before comparing the raw totals, it helps to examine each FCS opponent. Southeastern Louisiana finished 6-5 last season and nearly upset Louisiana-Lafayette. Meanwhile, Jackson State finished 3-8 last season and since 2015, has lost by at least 50 points to three other FBS teams (Middle Tennessee State, TCU, and UNLV). In other words, don't read too much into these disparate results against FCS opponents. If this game were played in Week One, the line would probably be a field goal or less. Plus, Southern Miss has been poor as a home favorite under Jay Hopson, posting a 2-6 ATS mark with four outright losses! Take the Warhawks here and don't be surprised if they win outright.
Old Dominion -1 Florida International
I was streaming Old Dominion and Liberty on Saturday night because I made a big play (by my standards) on the Monarchs when I was in Vegas over the summer. Needless to say, that bet is not looking great after Old Dominion's performance against the Flames. The Monarchs lost by a mere six touchdowns in Liberty's FBS debut. So naturally, I'm back for more hair of the dog this week. Despite Old Dominion's putrid performance, I think they have a good shot at beating the Panthers on Saturday. For starters, Liberty ranked seventh in returning production heading into 2018. It's almost as if Turner Gill and company were building toward this first year of FBS competition. Meanwhile, Florida International ranked 126th. Needless to say, I don't envision the Panthers rolling up 600 yards of offense. If they do, it might be time to fire a defensive coordinator. Secondly, the Monarchs will be back in the friendly confines of S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, Virginia (yeah I had to look up the stadium name). Opening the season on the road against an experienced team playing their first game as an FBS program created a raucous atmosphere in Lynchburg, Virginia. Seriously, those evangelicals were making a lot of noise; almost akin to a revival or camp meeting. I expect the Monarchs to play much better in their home opener. Finally, this is a conference game, so I expect the bad taste from that curb stomping to be gone by kickoff. Old Dominion and Florida International are not only in the same conference, they are in the same division. They have played each season since Old Dominion joined Conference USA in 2014 (Old Dominion has won three of four) and will play every year until one of these teams moves to the ACC. Expecting the Panthers to win a conference road game with so little experience is folly. Take the Monarchs to win and cover here.
Cincinnati +2.5 Miami (Ohio) @ Paul Brown Stadium
The battle for the Victory Bell, the oldest non-conference rivalry in college football, takes place in historic Paul Brown Stadium for just the second time in the rivalry's storied history. Miami is looking to break a twelve game losing streak in their annual clash with the Bearcats while Cincinnati will look to make it a baker's dozen. Last week, Cincinnati pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the weekend by upsetting UCLA in Chip Kelly's debut. The Bearcats and Bruins were engaged in a defensive struggle, combining for just over 600 yards and 43 total points in the Rose Bowl. The Bearcats were able to eke out a win thanks to some aggressive play-calling (on both sides). The Bruins failed on a fourth down in their own territory late in the fourth quarter while the Bearcats converted a pair on their subsequent drive to ice the game. Meanwhile, Miami did two things they always seem to do: open with a loss and fail to win a close game. The Redhawks 35-28 loss to Marshall was their ninth season opening loss in ten seasons and dropped them to an unbelievable 5-18 in one-score games under Chuck Martin. I'm a big believer that close game results tend to even out over time, but the Redhawks have consistently failed to deliver in the clutch under Martin. Based on the limited results we have this season, this line does not make a great deal of sense. Cincinnati won a game against a (young) Power Five team on the road while Miami lost at home to a Group of Five team. Typically, I am not in favor of backing a team off a big win, but this is a rivalry game, so motivation should not be an issue. Cincinnati has dominated this rivalry of late and the Bearcats are playing a semi-home game. Finally, oddsmakers expect this game to be close, which has not been a great recipe for Miami under Martin. If Cincinnati were favored, I would advise you to stay away, but with them catching points, I can't resist backing the Bearcats. Miami has been a solid play catching points under Martin (13-7 ATS in the underdog role), but you don't want any part of them as a favorite.
Arizona State +6 Michigan State
Like most rational college football fans, I was surprised by Arizona State's choice to be their next head coach. Herm Edwards had not coached in college football since 1989 and had not coached at all since 2008. Obviously, it's just one game, but the Sun Devils did not fall flat on their collective faces in the opener. Facing a rebuilding UTSA team, the Sun Devils did not let the Roadrunners hang around, building a 28-0 halftime lead with their ACME products and cruising to a 49-7 win. Michigan State's opener was not nearly as easy. Utah State entered East Lansing having lost their previous six road games against Power Five opponents by a combined 178 points. Yet, the Aggies actually took the lead in the fourth quarter before falling 38-31. Michigan State struggled mightily running the ball, averaging under four yards per carry in the game. Quarterback Brian Lewerke bailed the Spartans out, completing six of eight passes on third down to keep the chains moving. Inefficiency on first and second down will not be a recipe for success on the road against a Power Five team desperate for respect. Since the start of the 2015 season, Michigan State is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite and the Sun Devils have been solid in home games against non-conference Power Five competition. Since 2005, under an assortment of head coaches, Arizona State is 7-2 straight up against non-conference opponents from BCS/Power Five conferences. Their losses have come to LSU in 2005 and Georgia in 2008. Who knows, Michigan State may end up as a better team than those mid-aughts SEC squads, but they probably don't have as much underlying talent. I love backing the Spartans as a dog, but I want no part of them giving points in a Pac-12 after dark showcase.
*Bonus Handicap*
Kansas State +9.5 Mississippi State
This isn't a pick as much as it is an advisement for you to stay away from this number. I have made no secret of my love for Bill Snyder on this blog, and perhaps that colors my view too much here, but allow me to lay out a few things for you.
- This line opened around a touchdown and has climbed to nearly double-digits. I would not be surprised to see it cross that number by kickoff. Do you really want to chase public money?
- You will not make money consistently betting against Bill Snyder as an underdog in Manhattan. Since returning to the Kansas State sideline in 2009, Snyder's teams are 12-6 ATS as a home underdog with seven outright wins!
- Was Snyder holding something back in Kansas State's tight win against South Dakota? The last time Kansas State struggled to put away an FCS opponent (ignoring their loss to North Dakota State), they finished 10-3. And even when they lost to the Bison, they finished 8-5.
Maybe this is the year things go sideways for Snyder. He is approaching Methuselah age and it will never be easy to win at Kansas State. But do you really want to gamble this month's mortgage payment that he is done? Wait and see my friend. If you'll allow me an apropos metaphor, this feels like a Blackjack hand where you are holding a pair of face cards and the dealer's face up card is a Seven. You feel like this is easy money. Then the dealer flips their face down card to reveal a Four. Now your sphincter tightens just a bit as they take a hit. In Blackjack, that hit takes a second or two and its on to the next hand. This hit will last three and a half hours. Save yourself some unneeded stress and find another game to bet.
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