Last Week: 2-4-1
Overall: 11-15-2
Temple +13 Boston College
Was Boston College exposed last week against Purdue? Perhaps. In their first three games, the explosive BC offense had averaged nearly 53 points per game and over seven and a half yards per play. Against Purdue, the Eagles scored 13 points and were held below four yards per play. However, in their first three games, Boston College faced Massachusetts, Holy Cross, and Wake Forest. Holy Cross is an FCS team, and Massachusetts and Wake Forest have been two of the worst defenses in FBS in the early going. Both rank below 100th nationally in total defense, scoring defense, and (almost) yards allowed per play. Massachusetts does rank 96th in yards allowed per play, and unlike Wake Forest, they have not fired their defensive coordinator, so there is that. But, suffice to say, Boston College feasted on bad defenses in the early going. Temple did lose to an FCS team (albeit a pretty good one) and Buffalo, but they do not have a bad defense. The Owls have allowed under four and a half yards per play through their first four games. I expect some improvement from Boston College over their last outing, but this won't look like one of their first three games. I don't think Temple has enough offense to win outright, but they should keep it close.
Virginia +6 NC State
Hey look everybody, Bronco Mendenhall has turned Virginia into a legitimate football program. After qualifying for a bowl game last season, the Cavaliers are halfway to bowl eligibility in 2018. Three more wins would make them bowl eligible in consecutive seasons for first time since the glory days of Al Groh. The Cavaliers have already faced a pair of Power Five teams (Indiana and Louisville), against whom they are 1-1. NC State, thanks to the cancellation of their game with West Virginia, will be facing their first Power Five opponent in this conference opener. Thus far, they have faced an FCS team, granted a good one (James Madison), an awful Sun Belt team (Georgia State), and a decent Conference USA team on the road (Marshall). Still, despite the relatively light competition, NC State has not been especially impressive. Their running game has been particularly anemic, averaging just 3.36 yards per rush (3.54 once we remove sacks). Senior quarterback Ryan Finley has played well, but again, the competition was not especially challenging. NC State has not been especially good as a home favorite under Dave Doeren, posting a 6-9 ATS mark since 2014. This line should be closer to a field goal, so take Virginia to keep this one close.
Louisville +6.5 Florida State
Might as well go for a swim in the ACC sewage. These two teams have been extremely disappointing in the early going. Both are 2-2, but neither has been impressive on offense. Offensive guru Bobby Petrino has Louisville averaging just 17 points per game, while Florida State has been dominant by comparison, averaging close to 21 points per game. Of course, Alabama represents one fourth of Louisville's early schedule, while Florida State's best opponent thus far has been...Virginia Tech? Syracuse? At least Louisville was able to handle their FCS opponent, beating Indiana State by 24, while Florida State trailed Samford in the fourth quarter before eking out a win. I was on Florida State two weeks ago in the Carrier Dome, and after viewing most of that debacle, I can't understand how you can back Florida State as a significant favorite on the road. A Titans/Jags 9-6 crapfest seems appropriate here. The one unit that should play well in this game is the defensive line. Louisville has allowed 11 sacks thus far and Florida State has allowed 12. Both figures rank 100th or worse nationally. I don't recommend watching this game, but a third straight Louisville victory against the Seminoles would not surprise me.
Western Michigan +1.5 Miami (Ohio)
After a rough start to 2018, Miami opened up MAC play with a victory last week against Bowling Green. Of course, the Falcons may well be one of the worst teams in the conference as their lone victory came the week before against an FCS team in a game where they were significantly outgained. Western Michigan likewise rebounded from their rough start against a pair of Power Five teams. After losing to Syracuse and Michigan 59 points, the Broncos played well against an FCS team (Delaware State) and team that might as well be in the FCS (Georgia State). Those two games can skew the offensive numbers, but the Broncos also moved the ball well against Syracuse in the opener. They just could not contain Eric Dungey. The offense struggled against Michigan, but that was to be expected. I think the Broncos will be able to move the ball against a solid (by MAC standards) Miami defense. I sort of expected Western Michigan to be a slight favorite in this game, which would have meant a pass for me. So, with them catching points, I can't resist. Plus, Western Michigan is 10-2 since 2014 against teams from the MAC East. And finally, Miami is a putrid 5-18 in one-score games under Chuck Martin. Normally, I think those numbers should trend to .500, but Miami has had a losing record in close games each season under Martin. if this game is indeed close as the odds would indicate, you can bank on Miami finding a way to blow it.
San Jose State +13 Hawaii
In the summer, this game seemed like it could be one of the biggest stinkers of the week. These teams combined to finish 5-20 in 2017 with just three of those wins coming against FBS teams. And there was not much optimism heading into 2018 as Hawaii opened the season as a double-digit underdog to Colorado State and San Jose State was basically a pick 'em against an FCS opponent. San Jose State lost their opener to that FCS team, but a funny thing happened on the way to Nick Rolovich's trip to the unemployment line. The Warriors embraced the run n' shoot and won four of their first five games while averaging over 40 points per contest. Can the Warriors continue their high-flying ways and move to 2-0 in the Mountain West. On the surface, this game looks like a total mismatch. Hawaii is 4-1, with their lone loss coming against an option team in a game that literally kicked off while most folks on the islands were sleeping. Meanwhile, San Jose State is 0-3 with the aforementioned loss to that FCS team as well as two losses to Pac-12 teams. In three games, San Jose State has scored 60 points, or one point more than Hawaii scored in their win against Navy. So why is San Jose State the play here? Take another look at Hawaii's schedule. Colorado State has won one game while allowing their opponents to score nearly 40 points per game. Oh, and they also just lost at home by multiple score to Illinois State. Navy is 2-2 with a win over Memphis, but this does not appear to be your prototypical Navy team. The Midshipmen have allowed 33 points per game in their first four contests and were extremely fortunate to get their one FBS win. Rice has not beaten an FBS team and has allowed at least 40 points to each one they have played. Those are the three FBS teams Hawaii has beaten. Its better than most probably expected over the summer, but those are not good teams. Next, consider the arduous travel Hawaii must deal with. Three weeks ago, Hawaii played Rice at home. Two weeks ago, they played on the east coast against Army. Last week, they were back on the islands. Now they travel to San Jose. This game is on the west coast, but that is a great deal of travel in a short amount of time. While the Warriors have been gallivanting across this great land, San Jose State has had a week off to prepare for their arrival. And while the Spartans never threatened to beat Oregon in their last game, it does bare mentioning they only lost by 13 points. Hawaii has been a road favorite just five times since the start of the 2011 season. They have not covered in any of those games and have lost three straight up, including the last time they were favored by double-digits. I don't know if San Jose State has the firepower to win outright, but this is too many points to lay on the road.
UTEP +10.5 Texas-San Antonio
TCU/Texas was a big game last weekend, but for my money, this is the biggest battle this season in the state of Texas. The Miners will be seeking their first victory since the last game of the 2016 season. Cleveland got one last week, so there is hope. Make no mistake, the Miners are bad, having dropped three of their four games in 2018 by at least 20 points, including their opener against Northern Arizona. However, Texas-San Antonio is not the type of team you want to back laying double-digits. The Roadrunners are averaging just over 17 points per game in 2018 and have not scored more than 25 in any one game. Despite scoring 25 points in that game, the Roadrunners have not gained more than 300 yards in any game and are averaging under four yards per play for the season. Plus, the Roadrunners have performed poorly as a home favorite under (J) Frank Wilson, going 2-6 ATS and 1-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite. In a nugget you are unlikely to hear anywhere else on the web, the road team has won all five games in this series. UTEP won't make it six for six for the visitor, but they should do enough to cover this large number.
BYU +17 Washington
Almost a month in to the college football season, the playoff contenders appear to be set. You have Alabama and Georgia (I refuse to include LSU) in the SEC, Ohio State and Penn State in the Big 10, Clemson in the ACC, Oklahoma in the Big 12, Notre Dame in the sort of ACC, and Stanford and Washington in the Pac-12. Unfortunately for the Huskies, they have zero margin for error as their inability to finish drives cost them in the opener against Auburn. Over the summer, a victory over BYU didn't look like it would mean much, as the Cougars were coming off a 4-9 campaign, but BYU is the proud owner of a pair of Power Five road victories (as a double-digit underdog in both), and currently ranked in the AP top-20. For all the flak Washington's non-conference schedule has gotten over the last few seasons, this could end up being a real quality win when the playoff field is determined. Of course, for it to be a quality win, the Huskies need to actually win it. Will they? Probably, but this line seems a little high. Even when they were suffering through their lost 2017 season, BYU was still frisky as a road underdog, going 2-1 ATS with an outright upset. Overall, the Cougars are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog under Kalani Sitake including 3-1 as a double-digit underdog with two outright wins. A few years ago, you could have gotten good numbers with the Huskies as a favorite, but everyone knows Chris Petersen has an elite team now, so there is almost no value in taking them in that role. Plus, while the Huskies have an elite defense, allowing just under 13 points per game this season, they have not scored more than 27 points in any game against an FBS opponent. BYU is no slouch defensively, so expect this to be a low scoring affair. If BYU can score one touchdown, they should be able to cover this number.
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