Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 16-17-2
East Carolina +11 Temple
One of the more amazing things you have probably not heard about is the improvement of the East Carolina defense. In Scottie Montgomery's first two seasons in Greenville, the Pirates allowed an average of over 40 points per game and over seven yards per play! Surmising (correctly) that he might be on his way to the unemployment line, Montgomery hired David Blackwell from Jacksonville State to be his defensive coordinator. The improvement has been outstanding. Through four games, the Pirates are allowing just 25.5 points per game and 4.88 yards per play. That appeared to be all for naught as the Pirates began the 2018 season by losing to an FCS team for the second consecutive year. However, they won the game everywhere but the scoreboard. They allowed just 269 total yards to the Aggies, but were done in by turnovers (-3 margin), including one that was returned for a touchdown. Since that loss, the Pirates have beaten North Carolina, played South Florida to within a touchdown, and beaten Old Dominion. The Pirates have been particularly strong in creating havoc plays. They have 17 sacks through four games after accumulating just 19 total sacks in Montgomery's first two seasons (24 games). The nation at-large is still sleeping on the Pirates, and with the loss to an FCS opponent, East Carolina may not be able to get bowl eligible, but they will be a tough out the rest of the way. Temple is a solid team, but their offense is not strong enough to justify them laying double-digits.
Syracuse -4 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh and Syracuse joined the ACC in the same year (2013) and were placed in opposite divisions, but designated permanent rivals, meaning they face off each season. The five games they have played against each other as ACC members have tended to be pretty close, with three being decided by a field goal or less and one featuring a basketball score. Pitt has won four of five the five meetings, and dating back to 2002, the Panthers have emerged victorious thirteen times in the last sixteen meetings. So why on earth am I backing the Orange this week? Syracuse appears to have turned the proverbial corner in their third season under Dino Babers. After consecutive 4-8 seasons, the Orange already have four wins banked and their lone loss came on the road at Clemson. The offense has averaged over 44 points per game in the early going and senior quarterback Eric Dungey has accounted for fifteen touchdowns (nine passing and six rushing). Meanwhile, Pitt has floundered after ending the 2017 season on a solid note with a victory against Miami. That win seems to have been more about Miami wheezing to the finish line rather than Pitt improving. In fairness to the Panthers, two of their three losses in 2018 have come to top-fifteen teams in Penn State and Central Florida, but the Panthers were not competitive in either game, losing by a combined 76 points while scoring just two offensive touchdowns. They also lost to what appears to be a bad North Carolina team on the road and their lone victory against an FBS opponent came at home against a team (Georgia Tech) that has not won a road game since Reconstruction (roughly). Pitt has not protected their homefield under Pat Narduzzi, posting a 3-5 ATS mark as a home underdog. On the other side, Syracuse has rarely been a road favorite under Babers as their opening win against Western Michigan was the only time they have been in that position under his guidance. In fact, this marks the first time they have been a road favorite against a Power Five opponent since 2014. Even though this is uncharted territory for Syracuse, Pitt appears to be a bad team and I expect Syracuse to be able to score enough points to win by at least a touchdown here.
Miami (Ohio) +3.5 Akron
Last week, as I predicted, if the game was close, Miami would find a way to blow it. The Redhawks dropped a heartbreaker to Western Michigan last week, to fall to 1-4. The brass has been patient with Chuck Martin, but he cannot afford many more losses if he wants to keep his job. Can Miami bounce back against an Akron team that has only played three games more than a month into the season? The Zips are 2-1 thanks to a turnover fueled upset of Northwestern. The Zips followed that up with a solid performance in a road loss to Iowa State. Now they return home to open the defense of their MAC East division crown. Miami of Ohio has been a solid play as a road underdog under Chuck Martin, posting a 9-4 ATS mark. And, lest you think they have racked up those covers as huge underdogs against Power Five opponents, consider they are 9-4 ATS as a road underdog in MAC play with four outright upsets. While Akron has enjoyed a solid September with a massive road upset, Miami is the more desperate team. Their loss last week came to a team from the MAC West, so technically their division title hopes are still alive. I think the Redhawks circle the wagons and get a huge road win.
Colorado -3 Arizona State
Their first four opponents have not been especially strong, but Colorado is 4-0 for the first time since 1998! In the wide-open Pac-12 South, where every other team already has at least one conference loss, the Buffaloes have a chance to bank a second conference victory before heading out on an important two game road trip to face the division favorite (Southern Cal) and overall conference favorite (Washington). You probably don't know this, but the Buffs have the nation's leading receiver (at least in terms of yards per game). Sophomore Laviska Shenault Jr. is currently averaging nearly 150 yards per game through the air. In three games against FBS competition, Shenault has snagged 33 passes for 514 yards! His contributions have helped the Buffs average over 40 points per game in the early going. For comparison's sake, they averaged just over 26 points per game last season. If the Buffs are not looking ahead to next week's showdown with the Trojans I think they have a great shot at covering this number. The Buffs, in the rare times they have been home favorites under Mike MacIntyre, are 8-4 ATS. Couple that with the fact that the Sun Devils have already lost both of their road games thus far in 2018, and the Buffs are an easy play at this small number.
Old Dominion +15 Florida Atlantic
Last week, the streak came to an end. After beginning his career with eight consecutive conference wins (nine if we include last year's championship game) at Florida Atlantic, Lane Kiffin and the Owls fell at Middle Tennessee thanks to a late two-point conversion. The loss dropped the Owls to 2-3 and continued a disturbing offensive trend. After scoring at least 30 points in each of their final twelve games last season (and averaging nearly 45 points per game in that span), the Owls have averaged just under 27 points per game against FBS opponents in 2018. It's not a perfect comparison thanks to the disparity in talent, but this reminds me a lot of Lane's 2012 Southern Cal team. Recall his 2011 team, which was ineligible for the postseason, finished 10-2 with a late victory against eventual Pac-12 champion Oregon. That raised expectations significantly for the next season, and the Trojans began the year ranked first in the nation. They never came close to meeting those expectations though, losing their last three games to finish 7-6 with a disinterested Sun Bowl loss to Georgia Tech capping the disappointing season. The Owls weren't ranked number one to start 2018, but they were prohibitive favorites in Conference USA. Hopes for a conference title are not dead yet, but the margin for error has been significantly reduced. Can the Owls get back on track against a 1-4 Old Dominion team? The oddsmakers seem to think so. I assumed this line would be closer to ten points when it came out, so I think there is great value on Old Dominion. The Monarchs made a quarterback change two weeks ago with former walk-on Blake LaRussa replacing Steven Williams. In those two games, the offense has scored 84 total points against two pretty good defenses (Virginia Tech and East Carolina). Contrast that to their first three games where the offense totaled just 55 points against weaker competition (Liberty, Florida International, and Charlotte). Florida Atlantic has a bad defense, so even if they race out to an early lead, Old Dominion will have ample opportunity to cut into it and the backdoor will be wide open. I expect a relatively close, high-scoring game here and this line indicates you have to pay a premium to back Florida Atlantic. Take the Monarchs to cover this large number.
UAB +9.5 Louisiana Tech
Last week Louisiana Tech gave themselves the inside track to the Conference USA West title by beating preseason favorite North Texas in Denton. Now the Bulldogs have a chance to consolidate their hold on the division by beating the division darkhorses from Birmingham. A victory against the Blazers would move the Bulldogs to 2-0 in the conference with victories against their most likely challengers. A trip to Hattiesburg awaits in November, but after this game, the schedule features mostly the dregs of the division (Rice, UTEP, and UTSA). This is Louisiana Tech's second home game of the season and first in a month, so Ruston should be rocking. So why is UAB the pick? Well, for starters, the Blazers have been solid plays as an underdog under Bill Clark, posting a 6-3 ATS record. If we only consider games against fellow Group of Five teams, the Blazers are even more impressive, going 4-1 against the number. In addition, the Bulldogs were probably a little lucky to escape with a win at North Texas last week. The Mean Green outgained the Bulldogs by nearly 70 yards and averaged almost a full yard more per play. But, the Mean Green committed two turnovers while the Bulldogs played with a clean slate. One of those turnovers came inside their own ten, gifting the Bulldogs a touchdown. The Mean Green also missed two field goals, with the Bulldogs blocking the potential game-winner in the final minute. The Bulldogs won't be giving the win back, but that win has this spread too high. I was expecting this number to be closer to a field goal, so UAB is an easy play here.
Wyoming +3.5 Hawaii
After winning three games all of last season, Hawaii won five games before the calendar flipped to October in 2018. Of course, the last few weeks, they have cost degenerates money by not covering the spread. And yet, oddsmakers continue to make them favorites. While the Rainbow Warriors have five wins, the four FBS teams they have beaten have combined for a 4-14 overall record. In may not be hyperbole to say Wyoming is the best team Hawaii has faced thus far. Army and Navy may have some point of contention with that statement, but nonetheless, its close. Wyoming has struggled in the early going offensively, much like they did throughout 2017 despite the presence of a first round pick at quarterback. But Hawaii may be just what they need. The Rainbow Warriors have allowed an average of over 32 points per game in the early going. Their pass defense has been particularly galling, allowing opponents to average over nine yards per throw. After Boise State and their stout defense last week, this will be a welcome change for Wyoming. In addition to their defensive struggles, Hawaii has not done well in the role of favorite under Nick Rolovich. The Rainbow Warriors are 0-5 ATS as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS as a favorite overall. Meanwhile, Wyoming has been solid as an underdog under Craig Bohl. They have posted an 11-7 ATS mark in the role and have been even better as a slight underdog of late. They have won outright the past three times they have been a road underdog of a touchdown or less. Look for more of the same on Saturday night if you can manage to stay up late.
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