Two winning weeks in a row. Let's try for three. As always, home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 27-27-2
Iowa State -3.5 Texas Tech
With the other wild results in Week Seven, Iowa State's dominating win over West Virginia was sort of lost in the shuffle. The victory was their second in a row and evened their overall record at 3-3. With three of their five remaining conference games coming at home and another a road trip to Kansas, Iowa State still has a shot at getting to the Big 12 Championship Game. It's a long shot, but more realistic than winning the Mega Millions jackpot. It's a small sample, but in their two games against Texas Tech under Matt Campbell, the Cyclones have beaten the Red Raiders by a cumulative margin of 97-23. Those are Alabama-type numbers. Revenge could certainly be a factor for Texas Tech, and were Iowa State not off a bye, they could be hung over from their huge upset of West Virginia. As it stands though, Iowa State is one of the most well-coached team's in the nation. Consider it a gift when they are laying less than a touchdown at home. Take the Cyclones to win, and win rather easily here.
North Carolina +9 Virginia
Yes, America, go ahead and start preparing yourselves for a potential appearance by Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers have not necessarily looked great doing it, but they are 3-1 in the conference with a head to head win over Miami. Their division title hopes may well come down to their season ending trip to Blacksburg. But first, the Cavaliers must deal with a North Carolina team looking to play the role of spoiler in The South's Oldest Rivalry. Thanks to their poor performance early in the year due in part to suspensions and their nationally televised bloodletting at Miami, North Carolina is under-valued by the public. The Tar Heels are 1-5 and likely to finish without a postseason bid for the second consecutive season. However, in ACC action, the Tar Heels have arguably played about as well as Virginia at least in terms of yards per play. Both teams are a little under water in Net YPP, but while North Carolina is 1-3 and out of the contention in the division, Virginia is 3-1. We can thank the usual suspects of turnover margin (North Carolina is -4 in ACC play while Virginia is +2) and close game performance (North Carolina is 1-2 while Virginia is 1-0). Obviously, that hay is already in the barn, but prospecting forward, I would be hesitant to lay a lot of points with Virginia. Not only do the Cavaliers rank near the bottom of the conference in yards per play, they also play at a plodding pace. Last week, North Carolina was an underdog of a similar margin against Syracuse. The Orange play at a blistering pace, with that game featuring seventeen possessions apiece in regulation. By contrast, this game will probably only have eleven or twelve, so each trip down the field will be exponentially more valuable. As Virginia basketball fans know, playing with a slow pace is an advantage against more talented teams, but when the roles are reversed, that slow pace can allow the underdog to hang around. Assuming North Carolina has not quit on the season, this should be a four quarter game. Take the Tar Heels to keep this one close.
Georgia State +3.5 Coastal Carolina
These two FBS noobs face off for the second time ever with Coastal Carolina looking to avenge last season's loss and move one step closer to bowl eligibility in just their second season of big time football. The Chanticleers have already exceeded last season's win total (3) with another month to play. Meanwhile, off their first bowl win in school history, Georgia State has struggled. The Panthers narrowly edged an FCS team in their first game and have allowed nearly 40 points per game to their six FBS opponents. If you are looking for points you may want to check this one out on ESPN+. While Georgia State has been atrocious on defense, if we limit our view to Sun Belt action only, the Chanticleers have actually been worse, permitting their three Sun Belt opponents to average nearly eight and half yards per play! Coastal does not have the type of defense you want to be laying points on the road with. In fact, they been a road favorite just one other time in their short FBS history. They lost. Don't be surprised if the same thing happens here as Georgia State has already pulled an outright home upset earlier this season. Curiously, the team they trounced as about a six point underdog, beat Coastal by nearly four touchdowns in Conway. I wouldn't recommend betting exclusively using the transitive property, but it does make this spread all the more interesting.
Texas A&M +3 Mississippi State
After playing a soft non-conference schedule and climbing into the top-15 of the AP Poll, conference play has not been kind to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have lost three of their first four league games while scoring just three offensive touchdowns and averaging just 4.27 yards per play. In SEC play, the Bulldogs have had no passing attack to speak of as Nick Fitzgerald has completed just 44% of his passes while averaging under four yards per throw. In non-conference action, the offense was able to dominate on the ground, but once the competition stiffened, the limitations of Fitzgerald have been magnified. Despite being just one game better overall, the general mood of the program is much better in College Station. That's primarily because the Aggies two losses have come to arguably the two best teams in college football. The Aggies nearly upset Clemson at home and were marginally competitive in covering the spread against the Alabama juggernaut in Tuscaloosa. I think the wrong team is favored here. Mississippi State is so limited on offense, it has been very difficult for them to score against the better defenses on the schedule. Take the Aggies to win outright in a defensive struggle.
Air Force +10 Boise State
I picked against Boise State last week, and while that didn't work out, I'm going to fade them again as this does not appear to be your vintage Bronco team. Through four conference games, the Broncos are still under water in terms of yards per play, meaning they have allowed more yards per play than they have gained. Even in their blowout victory over Colorado State, the formerly stout Bronco defense allowed over seven yards per play to the Rams. Meanwhile, Air Force has started to figure things out on both sides of the ball of late, winning two of three after a 1-3 start. The Falcons need to win three of their final five to qualify for a bowl, so they should be motivated even though they have Army on deck. The Falcons have actually beaten the Broncos the last two times they have faced them at home and three of the last four overall. Air Force has been tough as a home dog, going 6-1 ATS in the role since 2014. In fact, they have won outright in their six covers! Look for more of the same this week with the Falcons giving the Broncos all they can handle.
Tulane +3 Tulsa
Two months into the 2018 season, these two AAC teams have combined for three wins, with just one coming against an FBS opponent. A bowl game is still theoretically on the table for both, with Tulsa needing to win out and Tulane needing to win four of their last five to qualify. More than likely though, 2018 will end in disappointment for both these squads. Tulane at least has the excuse that they have not been very good in the recent past and are still adjusting to Willie Fritz's option scheme. Meanwhile Tulsa won ten games just two seasons ago. Since pummeling Central Michigan 55-10 in the Miami Beach Bowl, the Golden Hurricane are just 3-16 and their once potent offense (averaged 39.8 points per game in their first two seasons under head coach Philip Montgomery) has disappeared. Tulsa is averaging just under 21 points per game in 2018 and have not scored more than 26 points against any FBS opponent. In a bid to give the offense a spark, Montgomery inserted the aptly named freshman quarterback Seth Boomer into the starting lineup. While Tulsa nearly upset South Florida with Boomer taking snaps, his passing numbers have been among the worst in the nation. In three games as a starter, Boomer has completed just 35% of his passes. As a useful comparison, on the team level, Navy has the lowest completion percentage in the nation at 44%. Boomer is basically playing worse than a triple option quarterback without the big play passing and efficient rushing potential. Tulane is not a good team by any stretch, but Tulsa's offense is very bad, and you don't want to be laying points with a quarterback that struggles to complete a third of his passes. I understand why Tulsa is favored. Were the line reversed, I'd advise you to stay away, but I think Tulane can cover this small number and potentially win outright.
Florida International -3.5 Western Kentucky
Maybe the game hasn't passed Butch Davis by. After guiding the Panthers to their third ever bowl game in 2017, I expected some regression in their second season under Davis. The preseason consensus had the Panthers in the middle of the pack in Conference USA, well behind their in-state rivals, as well as Marshall and Middle Tennessee. But, nearly two months into the season, the Panthers only losses are to Power Five teams (Indiana and Miami). They are unbeaten in conference play and should be the odds on favorite to represent the east division in the conference championship game as both Florida Atlantic and Marshall must come to them later in the year. That game against the Owls is next week, so they certainly could be looking past the Hilltoppers. Even then though, it may not matter. Western Kentucky is not good, and they just suffered one of the most amazing losses in college football history last week. They finally scored more than 30 points for the first time all season against a woeful Old Dominion defense, but at 1-6, they may have packed it in. I don't like the hook, but I think Florida International should win this by at least a touchdown.
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