We whiffed on a few picks (thanks Arizona and Georgia Tech), but somehow we ended up with a winning week. Let's make it two in a row. As always, home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 23-24-2
Colorado State +24 Boise State
Three weeks ago, this was beginning to look like a lost season for Colorado State. The Rams were 1-4 and had just lost at home by sixteen points to an FCS team. But they bye week came at a perfect time and the Rams are currently riding a two-game winning streak. However, after the poor start, there is almost no margin for error if they have designs on qualifying for a sixth straight bowl game, but 2-10 seemed like a legitimate possibility when October began. The Rams have two almost certain defeats left on the schedule (this game and a home date with Utah State), so they need to sweep the other three which include a home game against Wyoming and road trips to Nevada and Air Force. The odds are against them, but if nothing else, this slight downturn should ensure they can hang onto Mike Bobo for another season or two. Under Bobo's guidance, the Rams have consistently boasted above-average offenses. His first three teams ranked seventh, first, and first in the Mountain West in yards per play and the current iteration ranks second. Quarterback KJ Carta-Samuels, a transfer from Washington, leads the explosive passing attack. Of course, even with the offensive success, Colorado State has four losses for a reason and that is obviously thanks to the leaky defense. Opponents are averaging nearly seven yards per play against the Rams, but they have played better since the bye, holding both San Jose State and New Mexico below six yards per play. The Rams will attempt to slow down a Boise State team that has disappointed since an explosive 2-0 start. The Broncos looked for all the world like they would be the G5 representative in the New Year's Six after beating Troy and Connecticut by a combined 118-27 margin. Since then, Troy has been decent (loss to Liberty notwithstanding), but Connecticut has proven to have one of the worst defenses in college football history. Plus, the Broncos have lost two games, including one to an Oklahoma State team that has dropped three of four and another to a solid, but unspectacular San Diego State team. They have also beaten Wyoming and Nevada by less than impressive margins. Add it all up, and this line seems to be about a touchdown too high. Boise has been downright bad as a home favorite under Bryan Harsin, posting an 8-19 ATS record in the role, including a 5-18 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite. Call it a Smurf Turf Tax or general ignorance on the part of the betting public, but Boise State has been criminally over-valued at home since Chris Petersen left. Colorado State is not good enough to win, but their offense should do enough to keep this within three touchdowns.
Cincinnati +3.5 Temple
When the Southpoint Casino released their season win totals back in May, it was obvious not much was expected from the Bearcats in 2018. Cincinnati's over/under total was just four, meaning the Bearcats eclipsed that by the time October rolled around. After winning just eight games over the past two seasons, another 4-8 campaign seemed reasonable. Optimists probably expected the Bearcats to return to the postseason in 2019, which would be Luke Fickell's third season in charge. However, the youth movement has coalesced a year ahead of schedule. The Bearcats are 6-0 and ranked for the first time since 2012. Off a bye, can they clinch a winning record and make themselves legitimate threats to the two Florida schools in the East division of the AAC? Even when they were struggling last season, the Bearcats were formidable as a road underdog. They covered in four of five games and won outright twice. They continued that trend this season, winning their first two games against UCLA and Miami (Ohio) as road and neutral site underdogs respectively. Temple will represent their stiffest test yet, as the Owls have improved since opening with losses to Villanova and Buffalo. Both teams have yet to face a good conference opponent, with their five vanquished foes combining for a 2-12 conference record. However, Cincinnati has been more dominant against their soft schedule, averaging about three more yards per play than their opponents. Temple has not been bad by any means, as the Owls are averaging north of two yards more per play than their opponents, but I think the wrong team is favored here. The time will come to fade Cincinnati as the year progresses (they are not one of the 25 best teams in the country), but that time is not this week.
Buffalo -1 Toledo
Since being blown out at home by Army at the end of September, Buffalo has returned to form in MAC play, winning their last two game to improve to 3-0 in the conference. That Army game, a non-conference game against a team that runs a unique offense appears to be an aberration. The Bulls allowed 42 points to the Black Knights, but against the other five FBS teams on their schedule, they have allowed just 20 points per game. In MAC play, the Bulls have one of the best defenses this side of Northern Illinois, and while their star receiver, Anthony Johnson, has struggled (just 352 receiving yards after averaging over 100 yards per game last season), other players have stepped up. KJ Osborn has over 600 yards receiving and a pair of freshmen running backs have combined for nearly 1000 yards on the ground. The Bulls should have a field day against a Toledo defense that has allowed over 41 points per game and over seven yards per play to FBS opponents this season. Winning on the road is never easy, but I would be comfortable backing Buffalo by at least a field goal.
North Carolina +9 Syracuse
With their loss to Virginia Tech last weekend, North Carolina has now lost sixteen of their last nineteen games against FBS opponents! That would explain why Larry Fedora might be on the hot seat despite a division title just three seasons ago. However, if you take a deeper dive into the box score, you'll notice the Tar Heels actually played pretty well. The Tar Heels outgained the Hokies by nearly 150 yards and averaged nearly two and half more yards per play! Alas, they were done in by untimely turnovers and missed field goals. The Tar Heels are now at full strength after their offseason suspensions, and if they are not totally demoralized from last week's result, I think they are a solid play here. Syracuse opened the season 4-0 and nearly upset Clemson, but the Orange followed up that Clemson loss with another road loss at Pitt. Overall, Syracuse, despite their offensive pedigree under Dino Babers, is averaging under five yards per play in conference games. If you look at just the records and ignore the yardage and yards per play numbers, this spread seems right on. However, a Tar Heel win would not shock me here. North Carolina is improving and should keep this game close.
NC State +17 Clemson
The Wolfpack have played tight games with the Tigers the past two seasons. Can they break through and take control of the Atlantic Division by winning in Death Valley for the first time since 2002? I doubt it, but I think there is a good chance they keep it close. NC State does not have the most explosive offense in the country, but senior Ryan Finley may be the best quarterback the Tigers face until the College Football Playoff. That's a partial indictment of the rest of the ACC, but mostly praise for Finley's talents. The last team to beat Clemson at home also had an NFL talent taking snaps (although you might not know it from his pro performance). As you might expect from a team with the national cache of Clemson, the Tigers have not been kind to degenerates as a double-digit home favorite, posting a 7-11-2 ATS mark since 2014. Meanwhile, NC State is 4-2 ATS as a double-digit road underdog with two outright wins in the same span. I don't think NC State will be able to win, but this game should be competitive.
UAB +1 North Texas
In their second year back from the dead, UAB can put themselves in prime position to win the Conference USA West division. The Blazers are the only team in the division without a conference loss, and a win here would give them a head-to-head win against their two biggest division competitors after they upset Louisiana Tech two weeks ago. The Blazers have arguably the best defense in Conference USA, as they have allowed just fourteen points through their first three conference games. Overall, the Blazers are allowing just over fourteen points per game on the season and outside of a head-scratching performance at Coastal Carolina where they allowed the Chanticleers to roll up 47 points, they have been fantastic. They have been especially prolific in getting to opposing quarterbacks, accumulating 23 sacks and 47 tackles for loss through six games. But don't sleep on the Mean Green defense. While their defense has not been quite as havoc-inducing as UAB's, they do have 22 sacks and 51 tackles for loss (albeit in one more game). However, the Mean Green have allowed opposing defenses to sack them eleven times and tackle them 54 times behind the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, UAB has done a better job of avoiding negative plays, allowing just five sacks and 24 tackles for loss on the season. The Blazers should spend a great deal of time in the Mean Green backfield while keeping the Mean Green out of theirs. Plus, UAB has been great as a home underdog under Bill Clark, posting a 5-1 ATS record while winning outright the last four times they have been in the role.
Washington State -1.5 Oregon
After fifteen years, Ol' Crimson is finally getting a home game. College Gameday will be making the trip to Pullman for this matchup that will determine control of the Pac-12 North midway through the season. In the offseason, many folks, myself included, thought Washington State might be in for some regression. The Cougars were returning just ten total starters and had some off the field issues including the suicide of Tyler Hilinski and Mike Leach openly job hunting that made it easy to picture a season unraveling at the first sign of adversity. Oh, and they also lost their revered defensive coordinator to a national power, who interestingly has not improved the defense he was hired to co-coordinate. Despite all that, the Cougars have endured. They survived a tricky opener against what we thought was a solid mid-major and cruised through the rest of non-conference action. They lost a nail-biter in their conference opener, but rebounded to beat a solid Utah team and hold off Oregon State before enjoying their bye. After struggling offensively last season (ninth in the Pac-12 in yards per play), the Cougars lead the conference in yards per play behind quarterback and East Carolina transfer Gardner Minshew. Now the Cougars face the new division front-runners fresh off a home upset of Washington. The Ducks upset Washington in overtime, but the Huskies actually averaged about a yard and a half more per play than the Ducks and probably should have won. The Pac-12 won't take the win away (probably), but the Ducks are a little over-valued going forward. I would rather be catching points with the Cougars here, but Washington State has been quite good as a home favorite (at least against FBS opponents) under Leach. Since 2013, the Cougars are 12-4 ATS as a home favorite and with a spread this small in a game this big, give the Cougars a play.
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