Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 19-21-2
Arizona +14 Utah
Let's dub this game a Friday Night Eliminator (in the Pac-12 South). Arizona enters this game having won two of three after a shaky start, while Utah salvaged their season with a blowout win at Stanford last week. The Wildcats have three losses, but only one (Southern Cal) has come in conference play, so they are actually in better shape than the Utes who have twice as many conference losses. However, the Utes don't have any losses within the division, so a win here would set them up nicely heading into their home clash with Southern Cal next week. This is a typical Kyle Whittingham Utah team that wins with defense. The Utes currently rank in the top 20 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, and yards allowed per play. In a surprising development, Arizona has followed the defense first script, at least in conference play this season. After opening the season 1-2 while allowing nearly 35 points per game, the Wildcats have allowed just 55 points through their first three conference games. The offense has not been nearly as dynamic as it was last season with the presumably injured Khalil Tate rushing for just 109 yards on the season (over 1400 rushing yards last season). I expect this game to be low-scoring with neither team likely to score more than 30 points in regulation. Utah is over-valued after their upset at Stanford last week. While they scored 40 points against the Cardinal, they did have a long interception return contributing to their point total. This offense is simply not good enough to be laying double-digits against a competent team. In their four games against FBS opponents, Utah has only scored eight offensive touchdowns. A glut of Arizona turnovers could turn this into a blowout, but that is true of nearly every game. The more likely result is a close, low-scoring game. Utah will probably win, but they won't cover this number.
Iowa -4.5 Indiana
The implications of this line are interesting. Last week, Iowa played their first road game at Minnesota and were roughly favored by a touchdown. This week they travel to Indiana and are favored by about two and a half or three fewer points. The implication of course being that Indiana is two to three points better than Minnesota on a neutral field. That logic alone makes Iowa seem like an easy play here, especially considering the Hoosiers are coming off a road game at Ohio State. Iowa appears to bet set under center with quarterback Nate Stanley averaging over eight yards per throw in the early going. Iowa will need some help, but the division is still up for grabs with Wisconsin having to face both Michigan and Penn State on the road later in the year, so motivation should not be an issue against Indiana. The Hawkeyes have actually been solid the past few seasons as a road favorite, posting a 10-2-1 ATS record in the role since 2014. Iowa should win this game by at least a touchdown and likely move into the top-25 on Sunday afternoon.
Georgia Tech -2 Duke
While I was watching the merciless beatdown Georgia Tech put on Louisville last week (which I sort of called back in August, but didn't have the stones to call the week of), I thought there was a great chance this would be a featured game in The Magnificent Seven. However, I thought I would be on the other side. I figured dominance the Georgia Tech displayed, coupled with the fact that Duke lost their last game would make this spread around seven points. With that in mind, I was all set to add Duke to the card. But it does not appear that the Louisville game had any impact on this line. If Georgia Tech had won or lost a tight game, I think spread would have been about the same. Unlike Louisville, Duke is familiar with Georgia Tech's option attack, and the Blue Devils have won three of the last four in this series. However, only one of those wins came in Atlanta. Georgia Tech's road struggles since winning the Orange Bowl are well documented, but they have actually done well in the role of home favorite, posting an 8-4 ATS mark in that span (7-1 since the start of 2016). I like the Yellow Jackets to win by at least a field goal here.
Southern Miss +8.5 North Texas
Southern Miss is a respectable 17-13 in two and a half seasons under Jay Hopson. However, for diehard Southern Miss fans or fastidious point spread watchers, it feels like the Golden Eagles could have done so much more. Consider that of their 13 losses under Hopson, seven have come when the Golden Eagles were favored. In addition, four have come when Southern Miss was a double-digit favorite! On the flip side, Southern Miss has pulled five outright upsets, including two as a double-digit underdog. So what does all this mean? Well, it means you should be wary in backing Southern Miss as a favorite, but enthusiastic in backing them as an underdog. This is especially true this week as the Golden Eagles face off against a North Texas team that has struggled in their past two games. After opening with four non-competitive wins, the Mean Green lost at home to Louisiana Tech and then barely escaped El Paso last week. Southern Miss is rested off a bye (their second of the season thanks to a weather cancellation) and are good enough to leave Denton with an outright win.
Charlotte +9.5 Western Kentucky
The public at large must not have gotten the memo that Jeff Brohm is no longer coaching Western Kentucky. That is the only way I can rationalize this large number. Mike Sanford has been the head coach of Western Kentucky for eighteen games. His teams are 7-11 overall and five of those losses came in games in which they were favored. Overall, as a favorite, his teams are 2-8 ATS, including 0-4 as a road favorite. The 2018 incarnation seems especially ill-suited to cover a large road number as they are averaging just under 19 points per game on the season. Charlotte is far from a good team, and they will probably fire their coach by season's end, but the 49ers have been a frisky home underdog of late, covering four of their last six games in the role with two outright upsets. I'm not quite bold enough to call for another upset, but they should do enough to cover here.
Michigan -7.5 Wisconsin
To misquote the Bard, 'Something is rotten in the state of Wisconsin'. On the surface, the Badgers appear to be the same dominant defense they have always been for most of the last two decades. They are allowing just over 16 points per game through their first five contests (a slight dip from last season when they allowed under 14 points per game), but if you look closer, you can see some leaks. In their past two games, the vaunted Badger defense has allowed over seven yards per play to both Iowa and Nebraska. The Badgers had not allowed more than seven yards per play in any contest since the 2016 Big Ten Championship Game against Penn State. For good measure, they also allowed over six yards per play to BYU in their upset loss. Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson has not proven he can carve up an elite defense yet, but there is a pretty good argument to be made that Wisconsin is not an elite defense. The only elite defense in this game will be sharing a sideline with him. Playing a night game at home with a chance for a modicum of revenge for last year's game, Michigan should give a great effort. As home favorite, the Wolverines are just 12-11 ATS, but if we ignore the results from the 2017 'rebuilding year', those numbers improve to 11-7. Jim Harbaugh is not one to show mercy to a lesser opponent, so if the Wolverines have a chance to earn some 'style' points, I think they will take it. I don't like the hook sitting out there, but I feel confident Michigan can win this game by double-digits.
Arkansas +6.5 Ole Miss
Arkansas must be paying some sort of Alabama penalty for the line to be this high. Yes, the Hogs were pretty much vaporized by Alabama's now potent offense, but so was every other team the Tide have faced this season, including the team on the other sideline in this game. It should be noted, that of the five previous teams to lose to Alabama this season, each of them won their following game. I would imagine getting 60 points hung on you is embarrassing, but it hasn't really caused teams to not show up the next week. Ole Miss has pounded inferior defenses this season, averaging over 57 points per game in the non-conference portion of their schedule. However, once the competition improves, the Ole Miss offense tends to go missing. The Rebels scored seven points against Alabama and just sixteen in a non-competitive loss to LSU. Prior to last week's bloodletting, Arkansas had played well defensively. The Hogs held each of their first five opponents below six yards per play and were allowing just over 350 yards per game. Arkansas has won the past four games in this rivalry, with the last three being decided by just six total points. I expect another close game here, and I don't see how anyone can have confidence that Ole Miss can take their show on the road against any SEC team and expect to win by at least a touchdown as the Rebels have not covered as a road favorite since 2015. They are also just 3-7 in true road games since the start of the 2016 season. Take the Hogs to cover here and maybe sprinkle a little on the moneyline if you're feeling lucky.
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