Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 8-6
Wake Forest +7 Boston College
Boston College was somewhat of a chic sleeper team over the summer thanks to their strong showing to end 2017. The Eagles won five of their last six regular season games after a 2-4 start, and more importantly finally got their offense on track under Steve Addazio. Over their last six games, the Eagles eclipsed the 30-point barrier five times and averaged a cool 36 points per game. The Eagles have continued to fly high in 2018, scoring 117 total points in easy wins against outclassed competition. Now, the Eagles have their first real test of the season as they open conference play at historic BB&T Field. While the Eagles have looked fantastic in the early going, I think it might be time to pump the breaks on the Boston College bandwagon. For starters, while the offense certainly improved at the end of last season, part of that can be explained by the schedule. In those final six games, the Eagles faced defenses that finished 84th (Louisville), 99th (Syracuse), and 126th (Connecticut) in Defensive S&P. Plus, while Florida State (33rd), NC State (62nd) and Virginia (43rd) were decent on that side of the ball, the Eagles did not face any elite defenses during their run of offensive dynamism. I don't like to read too much into bowl games, but it is worth mentioning they only manged 20 points against a very good Iowa defense (15th). I don't doubt the offensive gains were real, but this is not Chip Kelly's Oregon. Wake Forest does not have an elite defense, but they represent the best resistance the Eagles will have faced on that side of the ball (no offense to Massachusetts and Holy Cross). Wake has been spry as a home dog under Dave Clawson, going 8-4-1 ATS with three outright wins in the role. On the surface, Boston College has been mediocre as a road favorite under Addazio, posting a 4-5 ATS mark, but when you filter out a pair of games against Massachusetts, that record drops to 2-5. I think the market has bought into the Boston College hype a little too much as this number has crept up after opening at five. Facing a conference opponent on the road on a short week is too much to ask. Take the Demon Deacons here.
Florida State -3.5 Syracuse
The Willie Taggart era has not gotten off to the smoothest of starts. After a disappointing 6-6 regular season in 2017, the hope was that Taggart could invigorate a talented roster that had grown a little stale under the old regime. It's way too soon to render any final verdict, but most Florida State fans never thought they would lose the opener by three touchdowns and then need a fourth quarter rally to beat an FCS team. Yet, here we are. As always though, I try to take a measured look at the proceedings and look for market inefficiencies. I think this game presents several. For one, Florida State did not deserve to beat Virginia Tech, but they also did not deserve to lose by three touchdowns. The Seminoles actually slightly outgained the Hokies and averaged more yards per play. Five turnovers and a blocked punt contributed to the inflated margin. Secondly, the Seminoles were in a rough spot against Samford having just played on Monday night. In the last decade, there have been several instances of teams losing on Labor Day night and then struggling against FCS competition the next week. Nine years ago, Florida State has in the exact same spot and had a hard time with Jacksonville State. Virginia Tech famously lost to James Madison after losing a tight game to Boise State. Navy edged Georgia Southern after losing to Maryland. All those teams enjoyed decent to solid seasons despite losing their opener and then struggling with an FCS team on a short week. Thirdly, if you wanted to see Florida State's offense get on track, Syracuse is about a good a team as you could ask for. Remember, the Orange were getting gashed by Western Michigan to the tune of 621 yards and nearly ten yards per play two weeks ago. The Orange won that game thanks to an amazing performance by Eric Dungey, but were sieves defensively against a MAC team. Syracuse has pulled off a few shockers under Dino Babers in the Carrier Dome, but overall they are just 2-5 ATS as a home underdog losing all five non-covers by at least fifteen points. If I had offered you this line five days ago, you would have jumped at the chance to take Florida State. Don't read too much into their ugly win against Samford. The Seminoles will roll here.
Rutgers +3 Kansas
Kansas finally got the proverbial monkey off their back last week as they won a road game for the first time since 2009. For all intents and purposes though, that win was meaningless. Central Michigan was expected to be a bad team coming into the season and they have not disappointed in the early going. The win means Kansas will finish 1-11 instead of 0-12 and ensures David Beatty will end his coaching career with four more wins than me and you. The Jayhawks won comfortably against the Chippewas, but against a MAC team, they barely averaged north of five yards per play. They won easily by forcing six turnovers and committing none. If you think that trend is likely to continue, keep in mind the Jayhawks have finished with a clean turnover sheet just two other times under Beatty. While games with no turnovers have been rare for the Jayhawks, games where they have been favored have been nearly as rare. The Jayhawks have been home favorites against FBS competition twice under Beatty. They lost both of those games...to MAC teams...by 34 total points. In fact, the last time Kansas was favored at home against a Power Five team was 2009! The Jayhawks won that game, but failed to cover. I guess what I'm trying to say is, there is no way in hell you should be backing Kansas as a favorite, much less against a Power Five team. Just to be clear though, I am not trying to imply that Rutgers is a good team in any way. The Scarlet Knights looked horrendous last week, but at least have the excuse that they played Ohio State. Rutgers should be able to do what nearly every other FBS team (except Texas) and half the FCS teams on their schedule have been able to do; beat Kansas in Lawrence.
Boise State +3 Oklahoma State
In the current iteration of the AP Poll, Boise State is the highest ranked Group of Five team. Of course, the AP Poll has no bearing on which teams qualify for the College Football Playoff or which teams participate in New Year's Six bowls, but I think its fair to say the Broncos are at worst co-favorites at this point, along with Central Florida, to represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Six game. A road win against a ranked Big 12 team would certainly give them an early edge, and with the troubles in Chapel Hill and Pittsburgh respectively, trump anything remaining on Central Florida's schedule. But, bowl season is a long way off, so let's not get ahead of ourselves. Regular readers might remember that I was high on the Broncos in the offseason, snagging this same bet with a little better value at +4.5. The Broncos have done nothing in the early going to dissuade me from continuing to back them. They have outscored their first two opponents by nearly 100 points and have averaged over nine yards per play. One of those opponents was Connecticut, so some perspective is needed, but the other was a road game against a decent Troy team. Oklahoma State has been similarly dominant in their first two wins, but in the aggregate, Missouri State and South Alabama are probably weaker than Troy and Connecticut. This will represent the first major test for either of these teams and while Boise State will take a senior fourth-year starting quarterback into Stillwater, the Cowboys will counter with an inexperienced senior quarterback making just his third career start. Under Bryan Harsin, Boise State is 6-4 straight up against Power Five teams, but when the Broncos are underdogs, that chip on their shoulder seems to make them play harder. The Broncos are 3-1 ATS in the role with two outright wins and another near miss. I feel confident backing Boise State as low as a pick 'em here. It won't be a cakewalk like their first two games, but they should get the win nonetheless.
Old Dominion -1 Charlotte
I'm giving the Monarchs one more chance. If they blow this game as a short favorite, they are dead to me. I was on them last week against Florida International and after jumping out to a 17-0 lead, their offense floundered, the game was delayed nearly two hours by lightning, and they eventually fell 28-20 to drop them to 0-2. There are some bad teams in Conference USA (and Old Dominion is probably one of them) so a bowl game is still on the table, but they must beat the woeful 49ers if they have any designs on the postseason. Since joining Conference USA in 2014, Old Dominion is a solid 4-2 ATS as a road favorite and Charlotte is not used to delivering wins in front of their home fans. The 49ers are 5-8-1 ATS as a home underdog since joining FBS in 2015 and they have won just once at home against an FBS foe (it was UAB if you were curious). Old Dominion is the better team and should be able to cover this small number.
Tulsa +2 Arkansas State
Arkansas State makes the trip to Tulsa, Oklahoma fresh off a curb stomping in Tuscaloosa. The Red Wolves were a popular pick to cover the more than five touchdown spread against the Crimson Tide, but Alabama led by forty at halftime and held on to win 57-7. Arkansas State is still a legitimate contender in the Sun Belt, but that can't be good for a team's confidence. Tulsa fared a little better in their road trip against a traditional college football power. The Golden Hurricane fell behind Texas 21-0, but quietly staged a second half comeback and eventually lost by just seven points in a game where they never really threatened to win. Through two games, Tulsa appears to be improved, particularly on defense, from the horror show that was 2017. Last season Tulsa finished just 2-10 and for the season allowed an average of 7.3 yards per play (only East Carolina allowed more). I would never call this unit 'good' at defense, but with their offensive firepower, they merely need to be competent to get back to a bowl game. Tulsa has done very well at home under Phillip Montgomery against fellow Group of Five teams, posting a 4-1 record with three of the four wins coming by double-digits. Meanwhile, under Blake Anderson, Arkansas State has treated road non-conference games like preseason games. They are 0-9 in such contests, including 0-3 against Group of Five opponents, with each loss coming by at least two touchdowns. The wrong team is favored here. Take Tulsa to cover, win outright, and match last season's win total.
Purdue +7.5 Missouri
After winning seven games for just the second time in a decade last season, Purdue has stumbled out of the starting blocks in 2018. The Boilermakers have dropped their first two games by a combined five points despite outgaining Northwestern and Eastern Michigan by over 100 combined yards and beating them on a per play basis by more than a full yard. Turnovers (-5 margin), missed kicks (especially an extra point), and ill-timed defensive personal fouls have pushed the Boilermakers into desperation mode. Their final ten games are all against Power Five teams, so if the Boilermakers have designs on a second consecutive bowl game, they now have almost no margin for error. Meanwhile, Missouri enters this game having won eight consecutive regular season games while posting at least 40 in each contest. We'll conveniently ignore the bowl game for the moment as that streak is still impressive. Last week, Missouri throttled a Wyoming team that was expected to be solid entering the season. However, early returns, particularly on offense, have not been great. After scoring 29 points in a Week Zero win against New Mexico State, the Cowboys have only been able to muster a combined 32 points in their next two games. Purdue will represent a significant challenge for the Missouri defense. Despite only managing 19 points in their loss to Eastern Michigan last week, the Boilermakers averaged over seven yards per play. The wet conditions certainly contributed to their inability to finish drives against the Eagles. Purdue will be very dangerous if they can turn that per play efficiency into more touchdowns. One additional thing to consider regarding this game is last year's result. Remember, last season the Boilermakers went into Columbia as a about a touchdown underdog and crushed Missouri 35-3. I wouldn't expect such a lopsided margin here, but Purdue has been fantastic as an underdog under Jeff Brohm, posting a 5-2 ATS mark with three outright upsets. Plus, Missouri has not exactly been a road dynamo under Barry Odom, posting a 3-7 straight up record with the wins coming against Arkansas, Connecticut, and Vanderbilt. Back the Boilermakers here.
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