Last Week: 1-5-1
Overall: 9-11-1
Tulsa +7 Temple
After a disappointing 0-2 start that included a loss to an FCS (Villanova) and MAC (Buffalo) team at home, Temple took their show on the road and upset undefeated Maryland. The Owls scored a season-high 35 points which included a fat-guy offensive touchdown. No disrespect to Freddie Booth-Lloyd, who I am sure is a wonderful guy (and fully capable of kicking my ass), but he is listed at 6-1, 330 pounds, which is on the upper end of most BMI charts. By winning that game, Temple begins conference play with a little momentum. Can they keep it up against a Tulsa team coming off a tough home loss to Arkansas State? While the Golden Hurricane have been bad as a home underdog under Phillip Montgomery (1-7 ATS), they have done better as a travelling act. As a road underdog, the Golden Hurricane are 10-3 ATS under Montgomery with a pair of outright wins. Even in their 2-10 campaign last season, Tulsa managed to cover three of their five games as a road underdog. Tulsa will be facing off against a team that you do not want to be laying a touchdown with. Before their relative offensive explosion against Maryland, the Owls struggled to score points, totaling just 46 combined points against Villanova and Buffalo. That continues a disappointing trend for the Owls in Philadelphia. In eight home games under Geoff Collins, the Owls have averaged just under 23 points per game and have failed to cover all five times they have been a home favorite. Tulsa is a spread offense built to run and Temple has struggled in the early going stopping the run, allowing 4.75 yards per rush (once sacks are removed). I like Tulsa to keep this one close on Thursday night.
Ball State -3 Western Kentucky
Want a prime example of the variance that abounds in college football? Two weeks ago, Western Kentucky lost at home by three points to Maine. Last weekend, the Hilltoppers went to Louisville, led the Cardinals in the fourth quarter, and lost by...three points. Credit the Hilltoppers for maintaining their focus and playing hard against Louisville, but the loss dropped Western Kentucky to 0-3 and Mike Sanford Jr. is now 6-10 as head coach. After the outstanding success the program enjoyed under Jeff Brohm, the villagers are probably gathering their pitchforks and torches. The worst part is that the prolific offense has disappeared. In each of Brohm's three seasons, the Hilltoppers averaged at least 44 points per game. In sixteen games under Sanford, the Hilltoppers have scored at least 44 points once. This season, they are averaging just 16 points per game. If we remove the opener against Wisconsin, that number does climb to 22.5 points per game, but that is still underwhelming. The Hilltoppers close out their non-conference schedule against a Ball State team looking to make a move in Mike Neu's third season. The Cardinals have been marginally competitive in their two games against Power Five opponents, losing to their in-state 'rivals' Notre Dame and Indiana by eight and 28 points respectively. This spread implies these teams are about evenly matched on a neutral field. I believe Ball State is the better team. Couple that with the standard homefield advantage and this line feels at least two points too short. Take Ball State to win and increase the pressure on Mike Sanford.
Oregon State +6 Arizona
The Beavers came close last weekend, but despite outplaying Nevada on the road, they dropped their thirteenth straight game to an FBS opponent. The Beavers have not beaten an FBS team since wining the Civil War to close the 2016 season. Although they didn't get the win, the Beavers seem to be much improved under first year head coach Jonathan Smith, particularly on offense. After averaging just under 21 points per game last season, the Beavers have scored at least 31 in each game in 2018. Of course, they have allowed over 46 points per game, so its no surprise they are only 1-2. Keep in mind though, their two losses have come on the road. Now they return to the friendly confines of Corvallis to face another 1-2 team that is not pleased to be 1-2 under their first year coach. In their only road game to date, Arizona fell behind 38-0 to a Houston team last seen allowing 63 points to Texas Tech. Arizona has lost their last two and seven of their last nine trips to Corvallis. Oregon State has a solid offense and is dangerous catching points, especially at home. Take them to give Arizona all they can handle.
Liberty +14 North Texas
North Texas is 3-0 and fresh off a four-touchdown road win against an SEC team. Not only did the Mean Green beat the Razorbacks, they stunted on them with this amazing punt return. Of course, the Mean Green also benefited from six Arkansas turnovers. The Mean Green did outgain the Razorbacks, but the margin (40 yards) was not indicative of the final score. The general public sees the beating they laid on an SEC team and thinks they should do more of the same against a team transitioning to FBS. Hold on a second though. Not only did North Texas benefit from all those turnovers, they also have a big game next week, when they host Louisiana Tech. That game will go a long way toward determining pole position in the west division of Conference USA, so North Texas could very well be overlooking the Flames. Plus, Liberty had an unexpected week off to lick their wounds following their loss to Army. Liberty may not be better than Arkansas, but their passing game is almost certainly more dangerous. If the Flames don't turn the ball over up and down the field, they should keep this one close.
Louisiana Tech +21 LSU
Les Miles may not be in Baton Rouge anymore, but his spirit is alive and well in the bayou. While LSU is currently a top-ten team and has two very impressive wins, the offense is still as ugly as it ever was. Joe Burrow, a quarterback at an SEC school in 2018 has completed 46% of his passes. Those are Bobby Douglass numbers (without the running skills). His best performance, percentage wise, came against Southeastern Louisiana, when he completed half his passes. Maybe LSU can ride a good defense and an inconsistent at best passing game to an SEC West title, but I have serious doubts. The Tigers won't need Burrow to play well to beat Louisiana Tech at home, but they probably will need him to in order to cover. It's hard to justify backing a team with such limited offensive capabilities laying three touchdowns. Oh, and the Tigers happen to be coming off a huge conference road win. And they have another conference opponent on deck (Ole Miss). I think LSU, particularly the defense, will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with the Rebels and their dynamic receiving corps. Louisiana Tech has been solid as a road underdog since Skip Holtz came to town, posting a 10-6-1 ATS mark, including 9-3-1 since 2014. They have also done well against Power Five opponents, going 5-3-1 ATS, including near victories against Kansas State in 2015, Arkansas in 2016, and South Carolina last season. This also marks the fifth straight season they have traveled to an SEC venue, so they should not be intimidated. Louisiana Tech won't win, but I think there is a good chance while you're watching Stanford and Oregon, you'll notice this game is within ten points in the fourth quarter.
Utah State -10 Air Force
I know the opponents have been less than formidable (New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech), but Utah State has still been impressive in their two home games this season. The Aggies scored a combined 133 points on the other Aggies and Golden Eagles. They have been especially proficient on the ground, accumulating nearly 600 yards and scoring ten touchdowns in both games. Now the Aggies open conference play against an opponent that has gotten under their skin the past three seasons. Air Force has won the last three games against Utah State, with each victory coming by a touchdown or less, despite being outgained by the Aggies and averaging nearly a yard less per play. The Falcons have benefited from some Aggie turnovers (+3 margin in the three games) and general good fortune. I think that tightrope will be tough to walk this season in Logan. Utah State has been solid as a double-digit home favorite under Matt Wells, posting an 8-4 ATS mark. Look for the Aggies to continue rolling here.
Eastern Michigan +10.5 San Diego State
After winning 32 games from 2015 through 2017, the Aztecs were somewhat written off from a national perspective following their season-opening loss to Stanford and less than impressive win against Sacramento State. And then late Saturday night, the Aztecs upset Arizona State moving their Pac-12 record to 3-1 over the past season and a half (which is the same number of Pac-12 wins Utah has in that span). The Aztecs pulled the upset with their backup quarterback by following their usual script. The Aztecs ran the ball 58 times against the Sun Devils, the fourteenth time they have run the ball at least 50 times in the last 44 games. In this era of spread tempo offense and four-hour football games, Rocky Long is a great throwback to the 1970s NFL. However, don't confuse this San Diego State offense with three yards and a cloud of dust. Juwan Washington (and his backup Chase Jasmin) is following in the footsteps of Donnel Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny by providing big-play capability in the backfield. Unfortunately, even Rocky Long is not immune to letdowns and I think the Aztecs are in prime position for one after their big win last weekend. Their guests on Saturday night are used to being road warriors. Under Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan is 16-9-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 11-2 since the start of the 2016 season. Under Creighton, the former doormats have won two road games against Power Five opponents. Under his predecessor, the Eagles won four road games total. I've never been to San Diego, but I hear the weather is nice. And the Aztecs have done their best to be accommodating to infrequent visitors. Since 2014, the Aztecs have been favored against four non-conference opponents. The Aztecs have failed to cover in each of those games, including losing one outright. You'll have to stay up late, but this should be a great, if under the radar game. Back Eastern Michigan and expect them to keep it close.
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