The Fab Five: Week IV

Last Week: 1-3-1

Overall: 7-7-1

We had our first losing week, but I guess we should be thankful Will Muschamp is an avid reader of this blog. For some odd reason, he elected to kick a field goal and get us a push to avoid a disastrous weekend. Things are looking up this week though.

TCU +12 Texas

Some college football fans claim the AP Poll has a distinct SEC bias, but judging by the most recent edition, I'd posit they are looking at things through the eyes of Texas. If not for an onside kick recovery, the Longhorns would have lost as a double digit favorite to Texas Tech last week. Despite the near loss and the return of the Big 10 and Pac-12 to the poll, the Longhorns dropped one spot from eighth to ninth. For comparison, the Longhorns in-state rival, Texas A&M, won an ugly game against Vanderbilt. Yet the Aggies never trailed after the first quarter averaged nearly three more yards per play than the Commodores. For their efforts, they fell three spots in the polls from tenth to thirteenth. Enough bitching about the polls. Why should you back TCU in this spot after the Horned Frogs allowed over eight yards per play in a loss to Iowa State? For starters, look at Gary Patterson's track record against Texas. The Horned Frogs have faced Texas nine times since Patterson became the coach and have a 6-3 mark both straight up and Against the Spread (ATS). They have won six of the nine games outright despite entering as an underdog five times. And their success has not been confined to Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs have won three times in Austin under Patterson. In addition, Patterson has been able to rally his troops as road underdogs since joining the Big 12. The Horned Frogs are 10-7 ATS in the role since 2012 and 4-1 ATS as double digit road underdogs. And finally, let's not forget how much Texas has struggled as a big favorite under Tom Herman. The Longhorns are a mediocre 3-5 ATS as a double digit home favorite, but all those covers have come against inferior competition (San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, and UTEP). Against Power Five opponents, Texas is 0-4 ATS as a double digit home favorite, losing outright to Maryland in Herman's debut and nearly losing to Kansas last season. Patterson will have the Horned Frogs motivated to play their big brother, so look for TCU to keep this one close. 

Texas A&M +18 Alabama

As I previously mentioned, the Aggies won a very ugly game against Vanderbilt last week. Side bar: How depressing must it be to be a Vanderbilt fan (keep in mind this is coming from a Wake Forest fan)? The Aggies tried their best to keep Vanderbilt in the game by turning the ball over on back to back drives in the fourth quarter while nursing a one-score lead. Vanderbilt followed up those turnovers by throwing their own interception and then losing nine yards on their final drive. With an SEC only schedule, a winless campaign is definitely on the table. Anyway, back to Texas A&M. While the Aggies failed to put the Commodores away on the scoreboard, they did dominate them in the box score, averaging nearly seven yards per play while allowing less than four. Clean the mistakes up, and that's a recipe for a comfortable win. I think their lackluster play against Vanderbilt was more indicative of them overlooking a thirty point underdog rather them not being a top-ten team. In this trip to Tuscaloosa, I expect a much better performance. The trends also seem to point to an Aggie cover. Under Jimbo Fisher, the Aggies have been double digit road underdogs four times, and have covered in three of those games. The lone game they failed to cover was in the regular season finale last year against the eventual national champions. It also helps that Texas A&M plays at a very slow pace. The Aggies naturally use a lot of time on the play clock resulting in fewer plays and possessions. Expect them to waste a few timeouts as well to avoid delay of game penalties. This is of course less than ideal if the game is close and the Aggies need to get the ball back, but if you just need them to cover a three score margin, they can waste all the time they want. 

Middle Tennessee State +7 Western Kentucky

The '100 Miles of Hate' is one of the more underrated rivalries in college football. It has spanned many years and many conferences, from the Ohio Valley, to the Sun Belt, and finally to Conference USA. With the Blue Raiders and Hilltoppers sharing a division, this rivalry should be on for the foreseeable future. Full disclosure, Middle Tennessee State was one of my sleeper teams heading into the season. They were better than their record last season, and I expected them to contend for the Conference USA title. Their first two games had me fleeing the bandwagon. They bounced back somewhat in their last game, and I regret not grabbing them as an underdog of around six points. So naturally, I am back on them on Saturday, perhaps a week too late. I did a lot of research on this rivalry, and over the past ten meetings, the home team has been favored eight times. In both instances where the home team was an underdog, they covered. I know two games is the epitome of a small sample size, but I think that trend fits here. As I mentioned earlier, Middle Tennessee State kind of got their act together in their last game, racking up over 550 yards while averaging over six yards per play. In addition, Western Kentucky has not exactly followed up their nine win campaign with a quality start. The Hilltoppers lost to a solid Louisville team, but then lost as double digit favorites to Liberty. The Hilltoppers racked up less than 300 yards in both those games against non-elite defenses, while their formerly strong defense did not hold up, allowing at least thirty points in both games (gave up thirty points three times last season). Western Kentucky should be favored, but a touchdown is too much to lay. Give me the Blue Raiders.  

Air Force +7 Navy

Prior to the Mountain West's recent announcement of their intent to return to the field, this was going to be one of the weirdest college football games of the season (its still pretty weird). The Falcons were set to play a two-game season consisting of their service academy rivals Army and Navy. Had they won both games, I would have lobbied for them to receive some College Football Playoff consideration. With Air Force having yet to take the field, there are obviously a lot of unknowns surrounding their football team, especially at quarterback. While unknowns can be bad, I would argue Navy's early performance should preclude them from laying points on the road. To refresh your memory, Navy was steamrolled by BYU on Labor Day, took a week off, and then stunned Tulane after falling behind 24-0. While the Midshipmen are 1-1, they have looked like trash for six of the eight quarters they have played. My math tells me that is 75%. I don't see how you can be comfortable laying nearly a touchdown with Navy and that is before you consider the history of this series. Air Force has won three in a row and four of the last five in Colorado Springs, with two of those wins coming as small underdogs. In addition, the Falcons have been money in the bank when getting points at home under Troy Calhoun. In his thirteen seasons at the helm, the Falcons are 12-7 ATS as a home underdog. And if we ignore the 2013 season, when the program bottomed out, the Falcons are 12-3 ATS as a home underdog! I don't like to throw the word 'lock' around very often, but this seems like a game where you could feel comfortable betting your mortgage on the Falcons. 

North Texas -1.5 Southern Miss

I'm normally a huge fan of buying teams at their lowest. And you can't get much lower than Southern Miss at the moment. As a brief refresher, the Eagles lost their opener as a double digit favorite against South Alabama (and then their coach resigned), blew a big lead and lost their conference opener to Louisiana Tech, and then allowed 66 points to Tulane. Of course, I would be remiss if I did not mention that North Texas also allowed more than 60 points in their last game. And the worst part is they did so while honoring Hayden Fry with some awesome unis. Personally, I would have loved to have seen a little splotch of pink on those unis, but I digress. This spread implies Southern Miss might be favored on a neutral field and I just can't figure that one out. North Texas has had a week off to lick their wounds after losing to SMU and are opening conference play while Southern Miss has already dropped a conference game and is playing their first road game of the year. North Texas is 3-1 against Southern Miss under Seth Littrell, winning (and covering easily) in both of the games in Denton. I expect that trend to continue with North Texas covering this small number.