Time to burn the game film from last week and get back to our winning ways. Note this post has been updated with a new pick due to the postponement of the Southern Miss at UTEP game.
Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 11-13-1
Pittsburgh +13 Miami
This line has jumped by three points or so due to the status of Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett is questionable and may not play, but to be honest, Pickett has been very inconsistent in his nearly four seasons as a starter. Whether Pickett plays or not, the reason you should back Pitt in this spot is because of their defense. While they have allowed at least 30 points in their last two games (both losses), they cause a lot of havoc and Miami proved very susceptible to havoc last week against Clemson. The Panthers have 25 sacks through five games, and if we ignore their opener against Austin Peay, they still have 22 sacks in four games against Power 5 opponents. They also have an amazing 52 tackles for loss in five games meaning they make constant appearances in their opponents backfields. I expect Pitt to harass Miami quarterback D'Eric King and keep this one close especially with Miami coming off a crushing defeat to Clemson that derailed any hopes they had at the College Football Playoff.
Navy -2.5 East Carolina
Like a Russian Nesting Doll, Navy has had a weird season within the already weird 2020 season. The Midshipmen are 2-2, despite being outscored by 80 points in four games. And if the season ended today, which it seems to always be in danger of doing, they would be AAC champs. Don't believe me? Check the standings. The Midshipmen are 2-0 in the AAC, staging a second half rally to edge Tulane, and stopping a late two-point conversion to sneak by Temple. With their narrow margins of victory, this would not appear to be a team you would want to lay points with, particularly on the road. However, I think they are in a good spot as they travel to Greenville to take on East Carolina. For starters, the Pirates will be without starting quarterback Holton Ahlers. This has caused the line to creep up a few points, but it has not even touched a field goal as of this writing. Aside from the news about Ahlers, all signs point to Navy in this game thanks to their strong history against East Carolina. The Midshipmen are 6-1 straight up against the Pirates and 5-2 Against the Spread (ATS). They have won all three games in Greenville by at least 28 points and several of those wins were against pretty good East Carolina teams coached by Ruffin McNeill. In addition, East Carolina has not won a home conference game under second year head coach Mike Houston (0-5), and while they have covered three times, all those covers came against teams favored by double digits. East Carolina looked pretty good in their victory against South Florida last week, but I think that was more indicative of the lack of quality of the Bulls than of anything positive regarding East Carolina. Keep in mind before exploding for 44 points against the Bulls, the Pirates managed all of one offensive touchdown in a blowout loss at Georgia State. Obviously the loss of Ahlers causes more uncertainty in this spot and there is always the potential that his backup plays better, either thanks to being better or due to the lack of film the opposition has on him. Still, Navy has pounded East Carolina in their previous meetings and while this is not a vintage Navy team, they usually roll over bad defenses. Take the Midshipmen to cover this small number.
Auburn -3 South Carolina
Prior to the start of the 2020 season, there was general consensus that the two worst teams in the SEC were Arkansas and Vanderbilt. The two participants in this game played those teams on the road last week, and while the Tigers and Gamecocks both emerged victorious, the circumstances surrounding their victories were quite disparate. South Carolina cruised to an easy victory against Vanderbilt, scoring 41 points (their third most in a conference game under Will Muschamp) and winning by 34 (their largest margin of victory in a conference game under Muschamp). Meanwhile, Auburn, with a possible assist from SEC officials, barely survived at Arkansas. With Auburn looking shaky and South Carolina looking dominant, you can sort of understand why this line is so low. However, even three games in, it is clear this Arkansas team bares little resemblance to the one that competed in the SEC over the past couple of seasons. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt may be even worse than we initially thought, especially when they are down to almost the minimum number of scholarship players. Remember, LSU looked like they had fixed all their issues when they dominated the Commodores in Nashville two weeks ago. Against middle class conference competition, I expect Auburn to be able to handle their business. Take the Tigers to cover this low number.
Syracuse +3.5 Liberty
These two teams faced off to open the 2019 season (when Hugh Freeze the Pious famously coached from his hospital bed) and Syracuse was favored by about nineteen points (on Liberty's homefield). Fast forward thirteen months and while nothing much has changed in the world, Liberty is now a small favorite in the Carrier Dome. Syracuse will be without starting quarterback Tommy DeVito who was injured in their loss to Duke last week. Even with DeVito, the offense struggled, allowing a nation worst twenty one sacks in their first four games. Despite their struggles, I think the market is too high on Liberty, making Syracuse a great play this weekend. Take a look at Liberty's schedule. I'll wait. The Flames have beaten Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Alabama, and Western Kentucky. North Alabama is an FCS program and the other three FBS programs have combined for exactly one victory this season (cumulative 1-10 record). Liberty laid waste to Louisiana-Monroe this past weekend, but their combined margin of victory against Florida International and Western Kentucky was just eight points. Asking them to win by more than a field goal on the road against an ostensible Power Five team seems optimistic even with a stud transfer quarterback. It is often said those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Last year, a 5-2 Liberty team trekked north to New Jersey to face a Big 10 team with an interim coach that would go on to score just six offensive touchdowns in nine conference games. The Flames were favored by about a touchdown and allowed 44 points in a somewhat surprising loss. This Liberty team is better than last year's, but Syracuse is nowhere near as bad as that Rutgers squad. Liberty has played five Power Five opponents since moving up to FBS in 2018. They have lost those games by a combined margin of 136 points. Look for that trend to continue Saturday with Syracuse pulling a minor upset.
Louisiana Tech +13.5 Marshall
Is this a potential preview of the Conference USA Championship Game? Perhaps. In the early going, both teams lead their respective divisions and the Thundering Herd are close to appearing in the AP Poll. They were in the poll a month ago before the pollsters began ranking teams that had yet to play. Once those Johnny Come Lately's were added, Marshall dropped out, but the Herd can solidify their first national ranking since 2014 with a win in Ruston. Marshall is getting a great deal of respect from the betting market with this number. Under Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech has never been an underdog of more than nine points when playing at home (Mississippi State) and they have only been a home dog six times in his seven plus seasons. In fact, Louisiana Tech has not been a two touchdown home underdog since hosting Boise State in 2009 (Derek Dooley's final season in charge). Marshall is a good team, but do they have the firepower to win by two touchdowns against a competent conference opponent? The Thundering Herd have been double digit road favorites fourteen times under Doc Holliday and are a perfectly mediocre 7-7 ATS in that spot. The majority of those games (ten) came when Rakeem Cato was leading an explosive offensive attack between 2011 and 2014. Marshall may have a future star in quarterback Grant Wells, but since obliterating Eastern Kentucky in his first start, Wells has yet to throw a touchdown pass against FBS competition. I think this game turns into a defensive battle with the winning team scoring in the twenties. With the homefield and almost two touchdowns in their pocket, take the Bulldogs in this spot.
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