The Fab Five: Week VII

Last Week: 2-3

Overall: 13-16-1

Well, we did better than than the week prior, but 2-3 is not going to cut it. Let's get some winners this week.

Temple +13.5 Memphis

Temple, a team once kicked out of the Big East for being terrible, has been competent at football for more than a decade. If you had told a Temple fan in the 80's or 90's they would enjoy a solid decade of bowl games and occasional conference title contention they may well have laughed in your face. After winning ten games and the Garden State Bowl in 1979, the Owls had just three winning seasons between 1980 and 2008. And in two of those years it took a future good NFL head coach to get them to 6-5. However, since Al Golden's fourth season in 2009, the Owls have posted just two losing seasons and have served as a springboard for four coaches to nab Power Five and one NFL head coaching gig. I mention all this because the Owls are not the sad sack program they were in the late aughts. They are a gritty team that has been a very good mid-major defense for many years. In fact, the Owls have finished either first or second in yards allowed per play in the AAC each of the past five seasons. And despite some struggles on the scoreboard in the early going, they are currently third in the AAC in yards allowed per play. Their defense should give Memphis some problems especially considering the Tigers are coming off an emotional comeback win against their conference nemesis UCF. Prior to last week, the Tigers had never beaten UCF (0-13), including back to back losses in the AAC Championship Game in 2017 and 2018. This seems like a flat spot for the Tigers as they are heavily favored one week after vanquishing a frequent tormentor. In addition, while the Tigers won last week, their defense did not play well, allowing 49 points and nearly 800 yards to the Knights. On the season, Memphis has allowed over eight yards per play to AAC opponents, so the backdoor should be wide open for a late Temple score. Finally, this is a relatively new series, with the Owls holding a 3-2 advantage (all meetings since 2013). However, Memphis has been favored in each game and has yet to cover. Expect more of the same on Saturday with the Owls and Tigers playing a close game.  

Missouri +5.5 Kentucky

Both these teams are coming off upset victories, but the home team has had a week to comedown from their upset of the defending champs while Kentucky must go on the road again after beating Tennessee in Knoxville for the first time since 1984. The Wildcats have played well defensively the past two weeks, holding Mississippi State and Tennessee to a combined nine points, but a great deal of that success has been due to an unsustainable turnover margin. The Wildcats are +8 the last two weeks (10 gained and 2 lost) and have scored three defensive touchdowns. Meanwhile, their offense has sputtered, averaging just under four yards per play in the winning streak. Kentucky is getting too much love from the market after their performance the past two weeks. I think their turnover luck regresses to the mean and Missouri gets the outright victory at home. 

Wyoming -4.5 Nevada

It took a while, but Craig Bohl has turned Wyoming into one of the better mid-major defenses in the country. The Cowboys were a defensive sieve in Bohl's first three seasons, allowing at least 32 points per game each year. However, the Cowboys have tightened up significantly the past three seasons, collectively allowing just 19 points per game in that span. Their conference record in that span is a somewhat disappointing 13-11, thanks mostly to ineffective quarterback play from a first round pick, quarterback injuries, and general bad luck in close games (4-7 record in one-score conference games). Despite the middling record over the past three seasons, the Cowboys have done quite well in games they were expected to win, posting a 10-2 Against the Spread (ATS) mark as a favorite. While both teams finished 4-4 in Mountain West play last season, when you look at Yards per Play, the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or First Half Point Differential, Wyoming was a far superior team. With a clear track record and a proven national championship winning coach, I don't have a problem laying less than a touchdown on the road. 

Maryland +11 Northwestern

Both these teams finished 3-9 last season, but for Northwestern it was an outlier, while it was par for the course for Maryland. Northwestern followed up an appearance in the Big 10 Championship Game with a barely functional FBS offense. The Wildcats averaged just a shade north of sixteen points per game and that was with an offensive flourish in their final four contests (nearly 30 points per game). Meanwhile, Maryland finished with a solitary conference win after fooling some AP pollsters and climbing as high as 21st in the early part of the season. If I had to choose which team is more likely to finish with a winning record in 2020, the obvious answer is Northwestern, but if I have to take a side in this game, the obvious answer is Maryland. Northwestern has been a perennial bowl contender under Pat Fitzgerald who is entering his fifteenth season at the helm in Evanston. However, the Wildcats have never done well laying points, especially double digits under his watch. As a home favorite, they are just 16-28-1 ATS and they are even worse as a double digit home favorite, posting an 8-16-1 mark. Pat's Cats tend to grind out wins against teams with similar or slightly better talent. They rarely roll over anyone. I expect more of the same here. 

Louisiana Tech -2 UTSA

If you just looked at scores against common opponents, you might wonder why Louisiana Tech is favored in this game. As of today, the Bulldogs and Roadrunners, share a single common opponent: BYU. The Bulldogs were run off the field in Provo, losing 45-14. Meanwhile, UTSA played BYU tight, losing 27-20, the smallest margin of victory for BYU this season. Of course, there is more to college football handicapping that common scores (or at least there should be) and I don't believe a critical injury is factoring enough into this line. UTSA lost their starting quarterback (Lowell Narcisse) for the season in their loss to Army last week. While the presumed new starter has experience, he had not played nearly as well as Narcisse and had faced inferior competition. Louisiana Tech is undervalued after losing to perhaps the best team in Conference USA last week. Despite the loss, their hopes for a division title and rematch are still alive. The Bulldogs have been solid as a road favorite under Skip Holtz, going 13-8 ATS in that role and the Bulldogs are 6-1 all time against the Roadrunners. Don't let the homefield deter you from taking Louisiana Tech.