Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 10-9-1
Back to our winning way! And it would have been even better if we didn't get in front of that Alabama Juggernaut. Obviously, I'm a slow learned because we are getting in front of another elite team this week. Read on to find out who!
Texas Tech +12.5 Iowa State
Texas Tech starting quarterback Alan Bowman may not play after being injured last week against Kansas State, but regardless of his status, I think this is a great spot to back the Red Raiders. As you probably know, Iowa State beat Oklahoma last week to move to 2-0 in Big 12 play and put themselves in position to win their first conference title since 1912! Obviously, there is a lot of season left to be played (hopefully), but this is Iowa State's first 2-0 start in league play since 2002. So the big question is, can they avoid a letdown at home against Texas Tech? Recent history suggests they may not lose the game on the field, but they probably will at the ticket window. Iowa State has been a double digit home favorite eight times under Matt Campbell. They have won six of those games, but are just 2-6 Against the Spread (ATS) and just 1-4 ATS as a double digit home favorite against Power Five opponents. You can probably guess the Power Five team they covered against. In addition, although the sample size is small, the Cyclones have not played up to expectations after facing Oklahoma. Including last week's game, the Cyclones are 5-0 ATS against the Sooners under Campbell with two outright wins. However, in the game immediately following their clash with the Sooners, the Cyclones are just 1-3 ATS. They have been favored in all four games and have not lost outright, but their next opponent does not seem to have their full attention. Finally, while Matt Campbell has been a good coach to bet on during his time in Ames, the difference between his track record as a favorite and underdog is quite stark. Against FBS opponents, the Cyclones have posted a 28-18-1 ATS record under Campbell (regular season only). However, most of that success has been when they are an underdog where they have a 17-8-1 ATS mark. As a favorite, they are at the break even point, posting an 11-10 ATS mark. Fade Iowa State this week and take the points with Texas Tech.
Texas State +7 Troy
If nothing else, Texas State fans (if any) can finally rejoice that their team has found an offense. In the four seasons between 2016 and 2019, the Bobcats averaged 18.5 points per game. They scored at least thirty points just ten times in that 48 game span. So far in 2020, the Bobcats are averaging nearly thirty three points per game and that is despite playing a Power Five team and a team currently ranked in the AP Poll. The Bobcats are just 1-3, but each of their losses have come by a touchdown or less. So naturally, they are catching points against a team fresh off a forty point loss. I don't get it either. Despite their 1-3 start, Texas State is actually unbeaten in conference play (1-0), so they should be sufficiently motivated for this road game (their third of five straight on the road). In the past, I was wary of backing Texas State because if they allowed two touchdowns, it would be very difficult for them to come back. But with their offense showing signs of life, they should be able to hang with a conference opponent with similar talent.
Kansas State +8.5 TCU
The status of Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson must be impacting this line. I can't think of any other reason for TCU to be such a large favorite. Even if Thompson does not play (his backup Will Howard saw significant action in their win against Texas Tech), I'll be happy to take the points with the Wildcats. There are a few trends to consider in this game. For starters, Gary Patterson played for Kansas State in the early 80's so this game probably means a little something extra to him. Since joining the Big 12 in 2012, the Horned Frogs are 4-4 straight up and 3-5 ATS against Kansas State. The Horned Frogs have been favored in six of the games (the last six) and are 2-4 ATS as a favorite, losing two of those games outright (including last season). In addition, TCU has struggled in their first game after playing Texas since joining the Big 12. The Horned Frogs are 3-5 straight up and 1-7 ATS, including 1-4 ATS as a favorite in their first game after playing Texas. This seems to indicate the Horned Frogs have a hard time resetting emotionally after playing their perceived big brother. If those numbers aren't enough to have you looking at the Kansas State side, consider that TCU is just 13-18-1 ATS as a home favorite since joining the Big 12. And more than a third of those covers came in TCU's magical 2014 season. The Horned Frogs torched all comers in Fort Worth that season, posting a 5-0 ATS mark as a home favorite, so they are just 8-18-1 ATS over the other seven seasons in the role. Finally, Chris Klieman has been money in the bank (and has plenty of money in the bank) as a road underdog. In his brief tenure, the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS as a road underdog with three outright upsets. I like the Wildcats to at least keep this one close.
Mississippi State +2 Kentucky
It took all of one week, but the luster is off the Mike Leach shine. After upsetting LSU in Baton Rouge, the Bulldogs returned to Starkville and lost at home to an SEC team that had not won a conference game since joining the conference in 1992 (citation needed). The loss dropped the Bulldogs to where most thought they would be after two games (1-1) and ended any absurd talk of them being in the College Football Playoff conversation at season's end. The good new for Mississippi State fans is that Mike Leach did not make a habit of losing often as a large favorite at Washington State. During his eight seasons in Pullman, the Cougars lost five times as a double-digit favorite (including a pair of losses to FCS teams), but all those losses came early in the season and the Cougars typically bounced back. Overall, the Cougars were 21-13 ATS following a loss under Leach and 5-3 ATS after losing as a favorite. I cite those trends because they seem to indicate Leach does a good job of getting his teams off the mat after tasting defeat. If you want to back Kentucky in this spot, don't do it because you think Mississippi State won't be ready to play. If you want to back Kentucky, well why is that exactly? Has Kentucky's defense impressed you in the early going? The Wildcats have allowed almost ten yards per pass in their first three games (9.9) while going against Auburn and Ole Miss. Auburn's passing offense is better than they looked in their last outing against Georgia and Ole Miss seems to have things rolling on that side of the ball under Lane Kiffin, but a bad pass defense is not typically the recipe for beating a team coached by Mike Leach. Have we already forgotten what K.J. Costello did to LSU in the season opener? And unlike their Magnolia State brethren in Oxford, the boys in Starkville at least pretend to play defense. The Bulldogs have ten sacks through their first two games and have held LSU and Arkansas to a combined 4.70 yards per play. This game is throwing off some serious 'wrong team favored' vibes even before we consider how bad Kentucky has been as a home favorite under Mark Stoops. The Wildcats are 9-14 ATS in the role, which isn't good, but are just 3-9 ATS as home favorites against Power 5 opponents. Take Mississippi State to cover and win outright.
Miami +14 Clemson
This might be the equivalent of stepping in front of a speeding train, but I think the Hurricanes provide good value catching two touchdowns on Saturday. I know their last two games against Clemson could have gone better (lost by a combined score of 96-3) and I know their schedule has not been challenging up to this point, but I get the feeling this Miami team might really be worthy of their top-ten ranking. I reserve the right to change my opinion following the result of this game, but the new quarterback and offensive coordinator combo seems to have done wonders for a team that perennially disappoints. For Clemson, winner of five consecutive ACC titles, this is their smallest home spread against a conference opponent in nearly three seasons when they were also two touchdown favorites against Georgia Tech and were quarterbacked by Kelly Bryant (wow that seems like eons ago). For Miami, this is the first time they will be catching double digits in the regular season since 2015 when they were double digit underdogs at North Carolina and (checks notes) Duke?! That Duke game did have one of the most memorable endings in college football history, but the Hurricanes lost by nearly forty in Chapel Hill. I'm not basing this play on any trends, but I feel like Clemson may not be as dominant as they were the past two seasons. Couple that with what seems like legitimate improvement by Miami and I will gladly take the two touchdowns (and probably be cursing the Hurricanes at halftime).
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