The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

You know those people who say 'it gets better'? Well, that is not always the case. The hits just keep on coming. We had some bad picks and some bad beats and it all adds up to a 1-6 week. We'll try and do better this week (would be hard to do worse). 

Last Week: 1-6

Overall: 21-34-1

Kansas +10 Oklahoma

Speaking in purely technical terms, this Oklahoma team just seems gettable. Don't they? The Sooners are unbeaten and will likely be favored in their final five regular season games, but they don't seem elite to me. SMU was within one score of them in the fourth quarter in Norman, they scored twenty points on the road at Cincinnati, and they needed a fourth quarter comeback to knock off UCF last week. Perhaps they are a team of destiny, or perhaps it all falls apart on Saturday in Lawrence, Kansas. Oklahoma has played two road games thus far in 2023 and Kansas is by far their stiffest road test. They play at Oklahoma State next week in the last edition of Bedlam for the foreseeable future, so the Cowboys may end up being the best team the Sooners play on the road. Still, the difference between the Cowboys and Jayhawks is slight, but both are much better than Cincinnati and Tulsa. Even with their backup quarterback, Kansas will be able to move the ball against Oklahoma. Can they make enough stops to cover this number and potentially win outright? I think so. Kansas actually has a better per play differential in Big 12 action than Oklahoma (+0.49 versus +0.26) and they will be primed to get to bowl eligibility for a second consecutive season. Take the Jayhawks and don't be surprised if we see another top ten upset on Saturday. 

Virginia +19 Miami

Both the Cavaliers and Hurricanes are off massive wins. Virginia pulled a road upset against a top ten North Carolina squad while Miami beat Clemson for the first time since 2010 (only played five times since though). The victory halted a two game skid for Miami, represented their first home conference win under Mario Cristobal, and gave their faint ACC Championship Game hopes a little life. Before the ACC scrapped divisions, the Hurricanes and Cavaliers were both residents of the ACC Coastal and thus played every season since the Hurricanes joined the league in 2004. Miami is 11-8 against Virginia since joining the ACC, but that is less impressive considering they have been favored in sixteen of the nineteen contests. The Hurricanes have lost outright seven times as a favorite in this series and the favorite is just 9-9 straight up. Thirteen of the nineteen games have been decided by ten points or less, including the past five. These two teams played a real snoozer last season that was tied at six at the end of regulation. I expect a little more scoring this year, but Miami's victory against Clemson probably says more about the state of the program in the upstate of South Carolina that it does about the one in South Beach. Take the Cavaliers catching another big number. They probably won't win outright, but they will keep it close. 

Miami (Ohio) +7 Ohio

This is a play-in for the MAC Championship Game for all intents and purposes. Both the Redhawks and Bobcats enter with 3-1 conference records, so the winner will leave with what amounts to a one and a half game lead with three to play. This game lost a little of its luster when Miami starting quarterback Brett Gabbert went down with an injury last week against Toledo. The Redhawks were unable to mount a comeback with his replacement and fell in a tight game to the Rockets. However, with a week to prepare, I think they will have some packages to take advantage of backup Aveon Smith's mobility. Without Gabbert, the Redhawks will have to win this game with their defense which is one of the best in the MAC. League opponents are averaging under four yards per play against this unit and no MAC opponent has eclipsed twenty one points. Ohio also plays good defense and the total for this game currently sits at 39.5. Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game and I think that favors the underdog. Ohio scored 80 combined points in their victories against Bowling Green and Kent State. In their other six games, they have managed just 100 combined points. I expect them to struggle moving the ball and scoring points. Thus, the value in this spot is on the underdog. 

Utah +6.5 Oregon

If we throw out the pandemic impacted 2020 season, Utah has been unbeatable in Salt Lake City over the past five years. The Utes lost to Washington in their conference opener in 2018, and have won 27 straight since (with an asterisk for 2020 when they dropped a game to Southern Cal). Outside of 2020, this also marks the first time Utah has been a home underdog since that loss to Washington. Two weeks ago, it looked like the two best teams in the Pac-12 were facing off in Seattle, but both the Ducks and Huskies have looked vulnerable and a fifth berth by the Utes in the Pac-12 Championship Game is not out of the question. Oregon has struggled on the road against good teams, failing to cover against both Washington State and Oregon State last season, needing a late defensive touchdown to cover against Texas Tech this season, and losing to Washington two weeks ago. After struggling to move the ball through the first half of the season, Utah appears to have found an offense in the past two games. Cal and Southern Cal are not defensive stalwarts, but the Utes had a hard time moving the ball against Florida, Baylor, and Weber State. I'm not going to get in front of this Utah team at home. Take the points and the Utes. 

Arkansas State +2.5 Louisiana-Monroe

It hasn't gotten to the level of Ohio State/Indiana or Alabama/Vanderbilt, but this series has been low-key dominated by Arkansas State. The Red Wolves have won thirteen in a row (last loss in 2009) and have covered the spread in all thirteen games! They have been favored in eleven of the thirteen games, but both times they were underdogs (2013 and 2021), it was by a similar number as this one. They won the 2013 game handily and squeaked by the Warhawks in 2021. Why would things be any different this season? Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under Terry Bowden, but should they be laying points in a conference game? This is just the third time they have been favored against an FBS opponent under Bowden and they have failed to cover the two previous games. Plus, Arkansas State has done well as a road underdog against Group of Five opponents under Butch Jones, posting an 8-4 ATS record in the role. Arkansas State is the better team and still has an outside shot at bowl eligibility. With five losses, Louisiana-Monroe is playing out the string and will drop their fourteenth in a row to the Red Wolves on Saturday. 

Georgia Tech +11.5 North Carolina

The Yellow Jackets have been a simple handicap under Brent Key. They are great as underdogs and awful as favorites. Under Key, the Yellow Jackets are 8-2 ATS as an underdog, with five outright wins. Meanwhile, they are 0-4 ATS as a favorite and have not won a single game on the field! The Yellow Jackets move the ball well, ranking just behind North Carolina in yards per play in ACC games (6.32 to 6.31). When he is not turning the ball over as he was last week, Haynes King is dual-threat quarterback. King rushed for 150 yards last week in their loss to Boston College and should be able to pick up a few first downs to keep drives alive against the Tar Heels. North Carolina still has a shot at the ACC Championship Game, but their playoff hopes were severely damaged in their home loss to Virginia last week. A flat performance would not surprise me. Plus, despite the different trajectories of these two programs, Georgia Tech has actually won the last two games in this series. They entered both contests as double digit underdogs off a loss. North Carolina is the better team, but this is too many points. 

New Mexico +1 Nevada

The Lobos and Wolfpack both broke long conference droughts last week. Both teams finished winless in the Mountain West last year and New Mexico broke a fourteen game conference skid while Nevada halted theirs at a much more respectable ten. However, they did it in drastically different ways. New Mexico won a high-scoring affair, dropping 42 points on Hawaii, while Nevada shut out San Diego State and won while failing to score an offensive touchdown. That offensive capability is why I like New Mexico in this spot. The Lobos have scored 92 points in their three conference games while Nevada has scored just 42. Their defensive display against San Diego State came out of nowhere as they held the Aztecs under four yards per play. Each of their previous six opponents, including Idaho of the FCS had averaged at least six and half yards per play against the Wolfpack. I'm a little wary backing the Lobos on the road, with their leaky defense, but they should be able to score enough to win back to back league games for the first time since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.