Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 20-28-1
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Navy +10.5 Air Force
Halfway through the 2023 season, Air Force has to be the favorite to emerge as the highest ranked Group of Five team and play in a New Year's Six Bowl. The Falcons are 6-0 and likely to be favored in every game they play the rest of the way with the possible exception of the finale at Boise State. This role is nothing new for Air Force. The Falcons were favored in every regular season game they played last year (underdog to Baylor in their bowl game) and were an underdog just once in 2021. The Falcons have lost six times as a betting favorite since start of the 2021 season including twice as a double digit favorite. Are the Falcons poised to fall out of the sky once again as a big favorite? I think they might be. For starters, the Midshipmen and Falcons are very familiar with each other, playing each season as two thirds of the participants in the battle for the Commander in Chief's Trophy. Under head coach Troy Calhoun, the Falcons are 8-8 against Navy, but just 2-6 in Annapolis. They won big the last time they were here two years ago as about a touchdown favorite, but this is just the third time they have been favored at Navy under Calhoun. In addition, their standout quarterback Zac Larrier suffered an injury last week against Wyoming and will miss this game. Navy is also dealing with quarterback injuries, but the drop off between Larrier and his backup is likely much greater than the gap between the Navy quarterbacks that have split time this season. Navy is also better defensively than they were in the final years of the Ken Niumatalolo regime. In 2021 and 2022, Navy ranked eleventh (second to last) in the AAC in yards allowed per play in league games. Halfway through the 2023 season, they rank a mediocre eighth in that statistic. Service academy games seem to always be close, so with a double digit spread and injury concerns for the favorite, the underdog is the play.
UAB +6.5 Memphis
I thought Memphis had a chance to win the AAC this season. The Tigers had an experienced quarterback, a manageable conference schedule, and were getting last year's champ (Tulane) at home. The Tigers started 4-1, with their lone loss coming to a currently ranked SEC team (Missouri), but their failure to beat Tulane at home last week called into question their good start. The Tigers four wins include an FCS team, a bad Group of Five opponent that had yet to make a needed quarterback change (Arkansas State), Navy, and Boise State. The Navy and Boise State games were decided by four and three points respectively with the margin against Boise State coming on a short blocked field goal return touchdown. The Tigers aren't as good as I thought they would be and they have done performed poorly on the road under head coach Ryan Silverfield. Under Silverfield, the Tigers are just 2-5 ATS as a road favorite. In addition, they are an unthinkable 2-10 straight up in road conference games! UAB has been up and down in their first season under Trent Dilfer, but the Blazers are playing at home and have nothing to lose while Memphis has seen their conference title dreams take a significant hit. Take the Blazers and the points.
Miami (Ohio) +2 Toledo
This might be the game of the year in the MAC and a preview of the conference title game. So thank goodness it is not consigned to ESPN+. You can watch this one on your terrestrial ESPNU channel so there is no need for boomer mid-westerners to ask their kids or grandkids to hook ESPN+ up to the main television. These two teams have not received an iota of attention from the national media, but the winner will probably receive a few sundry votes in the next AP Poll. Had Toledo held on to beat Illinois in their opener, they would probably be ranked. But such is the challenge for Group of Five college football programs. Lose once and the nation forgets about you unless you win your next ten. Still, for my money this is the best and most exciting game in the mid-afternoon window (third Saturday in October be damned). As for handicapping this game, I like the Redhawks because they have been one of the best MAC home teams of the past half-decade. Under Chuck Martin, they are 23-11 straight up in MAC home games, but 15-3 in such games since the start of the 2018 season. They are also 9-5-1 ATS as a home underdog under Martin, including 5-1 ATS since 2018. Plus I think this game means more to Miami. The Redhawks travel to Ohio next week and need to bank all the league wins they can. Meanwhile, Toledo already has a head to head win against their biggest division rival (Northern Illinois) and a very manageable schedule the rest of the way.
Hawaii -1 New Mexico
Before the season started, I was somewhat optimistic about New Mexico's chances of fielding a competitive team in the Mountain West. The Lobos were historically bad on offense last season and brought in a quality transfer quarterback along with his offensive coordinator. They had also quietly posted a solid first half point differential last season, which is often indicative of improvement the following season. The offense has improved in 2023, with the Lobos more than doubling their per game scoring output from last season. However, the defense has fallen off a cliff. The Lobos are allowing over 34 points per game and if we remove their FCS contest, that number jumps to 39 points per game. The Lobos have also continued to struggle in the second half of games. If we ignore their games against teams they had no shot to defeat (Texas A&M) and teams they were heavily favored against (Tennessee Tech), and focus solely on their four games against similar opponents (Massachusetts, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Wyoming), the Lobos have performed admirably in the first half. They have outscored those four opponents by a combined seven points in their first half. In all four games, they were never trailing by more than a touchdown at halftime. However, in the second half of those four games, the Lobos have been outscored by 54 total points. They have not won a single second half and nearly blew a two touchdown lead at Massachusetts before prevailing in overtime. Hawaii has been competitive in their second season under local legend Timmy Chang and are poised to win their first road game since 2021. Take the Rainbow Warriors.
Florida Atlantic +3 Texas-San Antonio
On the surface, things appear to be back to normal for the Roadrunners since Frank Harris returned from injury two weeks ago. The AAC newcomers have won their first two league games by multiple scores while putting up 90 combined points. But if you dig a little deeper into those box scores, things may not be going quite as well as they seem. UTSA was outgained by both Temple and UAB, but the Roadrunners were +2 in turnovers in both games. Three of the five turnovers they forced in those two games led directly to short touchdown drives of less than twenty yards (two gave them goal to go opportunities). Turnovers are great for winning games, but less so for predicting the future. If the Roadrunners finish +2 in turnovers in this game, there is a great shot they cover this small number. But turnovers are a fickle mistress and I think they have inflated this line in favor of UTSA. In addition, Tom Herman has been fantastic as a home underdog in his previous stops at Houston and Texas (4-1 ATS in the role). I'll back him again in one of his favorite spots and call for an outright upset by the Owls.
Old Dominion +6.5 Appalachian State
It feels like the end may be coming for Shawn Clark at Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are a proud program and do not stand for mediocrity. And, over the last year and a half, the Mountaineers have been mediocre or worse. Clark began his career in Boone 19-5. However, since the start of the 2021 postseason (Sun Belt Championship Game), the Mountaineers are just 9-11 (6-11 versus FBS opponents!). Perhaps its just a run of bad luck as the Mountaineers are just 3-9 in one-score games in that span. But this year, the defense has fallen off a cliff. The Mountaineers have allowed over seven yards per play to their first two Sun Belt opponents. They lost on a last second field goal to Coastal Carolina, but were fortunate to escape Louisiana-Monroe on a field goal of their own the game prior. The Sun Belt is a highly competitive league, so it would not be surprising to see Appalachian State finish 6-6 or worse for a second consecutive year. The Mountaineers have also been bad on the road under Clark, posting a 3-10-1 ATS mark as a road favorite with seven outright losses. In addition, their only road victory since upsetting a top ten Texas A&M team last year was by one point at Louisiana-Monroe a few weeks ago. After bottoming out at 3-9 last season, Old Dominion has already matched their win total halfway through 2023. They have already pulled one outright home upset against a conference opponent this season and also put a major scare into an ACC team in Norfolk. Take the Monarchs to cover this number and don't be surprised if they win outright.
UNLV -8 Colorado State
This is a massive game for both teams. UNLV is 5-1 and on the precipice of receiving votes in the AP Poll. The Rebels have never been ranked in their history and considering their pedigree, they are a long shot to bust into the poll. However, they have a great shot at playing in just their third bowl game this century, and despite a back-loaded schedule, have an outside shot at playing in the Mountain West Championship Game. Meanwhile, Colorado State has won three of four after an 0-2 start and the Rams have designs on their first bowl bid since 2017. The Rams staged a miraculous rally on Saturday night to upset Boise State. Down twenty with under five minutes to go, the Rams scored, recovered an onside kick, scored, nearly recovered another onside kick, and completed a Hail Mary at the gun to win. It helped that Boise head coach Andy Avalos was asleep at the wheel when the Broncos scored a touchdown to go up nineteen with about six minutes to go in the game. The Broncos should have gone for two as a conversion would have given them a full three touchdown lead. But I digress. While the rally is great for their bowl hopes, it also masked their offensive struggles. The Rams had scored ten points through 90% of the ball game. That came one week after turnovers and special teams plays helped them build a 17-0 lead against Utah State. The Rams would score just seven more points en route to a blowout loss to the Aggies. Colorado State is one dimensional on offense, as they average under three yards per carry despite allowing only nine sacks on the season. Freshman quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has made some big plays, but befitting his youth and inexperience, he has also thrown eleven interceptions. Colorado State is 2-7 on the road under Jay Norvell, with six of the seven losses coming by double digits. UNLV has scored at least forty points in every game this season when they did not play Michigan. I expect another great offensive showing by the Rebels and a double digit win.
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