The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

Egads. The first week of October did not go any better for us. Our yearly record is quite poor, so the goal of 55% is probably out of the question. Best we can hope for is to get back to .500 by the end of the year. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 16-25-1

Kent State +9 Eastern Michigan

If I've written it once on this blog, I've written it a thousand times. Chris Creighton is one of the best coaches in college football and his teams are a virtual ATM when catching points. However, they are much less reliable when laying points. Under Creighton, the Eagles are 6-13 ATS as a home favorite with ten outright losses. The Eagles covered last week as a small home favorite against Ball State, but that fourteen point margin was a bit misleading. Eastern Michigan was outgained and averaged under four yards per play. Two turnovers by the Cardinals and three fourth down stops by Eastern Michigan flipped that game. There is a lot of parity in the MAC and Eastern Michigan represents by far the weakest FBS team Kent State has faced this season. In the non-conference, they faced two Power Five teams on the road (Arkansas and UCF) as well as the a solid Mountain West team (Fresno State). Then to open league play, they faced the two best teams in their division (Miami and Ohio). Kent State is not a good team, but neither is Eastern Michigan, so so I expect a tight game. Gobble up those nine points with the Golden Flashes. 

Georgia Southern +6 James Madison

The transition to FBS has not been a problem for James Madison. The Dukes won their first five games as an FBS team last season on their way to an 8-3 finish and are 5-0 once again. While the Dukes have stacked wins, their margin has not been great. Their four wins against FBS teams have come by a combined eighteen points. Give the Dukes credit though, as they have managed to win several different types of games. They won a shootout at Virginia, a defensive struggle at Troy, and a pair of blowouts that turned tight against Utah State and South Alabama. The Dukes have been great against the run, holding their opponents to under two yards per rush when including for sacks. They lead the nation in sacks per game, having totaled 23 through their first five contests. However, when opposing quarterbacks don't get tackled in the backfield, they have managed to move the ball against the Dukes. Their four FBS opponents have averaged 8.25 yards per pass against their secondary. That may play right into the hands of the pass happy Eagles from Statesboro. The Eagles throw the ball more than any team in FBS (over 49 passes per game) and have allowed only eleven sacks on the season. Were this game played a few years ago when Georgia Southern ran the triple option, the Dukes would be poised to shut it down. However, playing against the new look Eagles, I expect the Dukes to give up quite a few yards through the air. James Madison may prevail, but it will be close. 

Oklahoma State +3 Kansas

This is an historic moment for Kansas football. Earlier this season, Kansas was a road favorite against Nevada. But this week, they are road favorites in a conference game for the first time since 2009! A child born the last time Kansas was favored in a Big 12 road game would be entering high school now! For what its worth, Kansas has been a road favorite five times since their Orange Bowl run in 2007. They are 1-4 ATS in those games with two outright losses and two wins by a touchdown or less. At 5-1, Kansas appears to be headed to a bowl game for a second consecutive season, and while the offense continues to be among the best in the Big 12, the team has been somewhat fortunate in the early going. They have scored three non-offensive touchdowns in their first three league games (an interception and fumble return against BYU and a punt return against UCF) and are +4 in turnovers in those Big 12 games. Meanwhile, after an embarrassing home loss to South Alabama, Oklahoma State seems to be back on track, losing a tight game in Ames and beating the reigning Big 12 champ at home. This won't go down as Mike Gundy's best team, but the Cowboys should be able to get to yet another bowl game (18th straight). The Cowboys are mediocre as a home underdog under Gundy (11-11-2 ATS), but as you might guess, most of those games came early in his tenure. In his first six seasons (2005-2010), the Cowboys were just 4-6-2 as a home underdog). However, since 2011, they are 7-5 ATS in the role, with two of the non-covers coming against Oklahoma. In addition, since 2016, they are 6-1 ATS as a home underdog with six outright wins (lone loss came to Oklahoma). This is an unfamiliar spot for Kansas, so back the home underdog. 

Bowling Green +4 Buffalo

A few weeks ago, I wrote there were three good teams in the MAC (Miami, Ohio, and Toledo) and nine teams of varying forms of trash. Despite Bowling Green's road win against Georgia Tech and Buffalo's two-game winning streak, I stand by that statement. After scoring 38 points against Georgia Tech and getting their defensive coordinator demoted, the Falcons were shutout by Miami. The loss dropped the Falcons to 2-4, but their schedule has been arduous. They have faced two unbeaten teams in the non-conference (Liberty and Michigan) as well as two of the best teams in the MAC (Miami and Ohio). And of course, the aforementioned Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Buffalo has eased into MAC play with games against Akron and Central Michigan. The Bulls were taken to overtime by the woeful Zips and their big victory against Central Michigan was aided by four turnovers and two defensive touchdowns. Bowling Green is probably the better team and this spread should be much close to a pick 'em. Take the Falcons and the points. 

Kansas State +1.5 Texas Tech

When Nebraska and Colorado left the Big 12 in 2011, the conference scrapped divisions and instituted a true round-robin schedule. Thus, Kansas State and Texas Tech have played each of the past twelve seasons. In that span, Kansas State is 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS. They have been successful in both Manhattan and Lubbock, winning five of the six games at Texas Tech with their only loss coming in 2015. Texas Tech has rebounded from their 1-3 start, winning their last two games in blowout fashion. However, those victories have come against Houston and Baylor, two teams that have combined for three FBS wins between them. Based on the series history, the play is Kansas State. 

Wyoming +10.5 Air Force

The winner of this game will have the inside track to the Mountain West Championship Game. If the winner happens to be Air Force, it may be time to consider the Falcons the favorite to emerge from the Group of Five and be selected for a New Year's Six bowl game. The Falcons, along with the Flames of Liberty and the Dukes of James Madison, are the only remaining unbeaten teams from the G5. James Madison is ineligible for the postseason and Liberty plays in arguably the weakest FBS conference, so an undefeated Air Force would practically be a shoe in for the NY6. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Should the Falcons really be this large a favorite against a solid Wyoming team? The Mountain West scrapped divisions prior to the season, but in the before times, both the Cowboys and Falcons were members of the Mountain Division, meaning they played each other once a year. Troy Calhoun has been at Air Force for seventeen seasons and is creeping up on Fisher DeBerry in terms of tenure at the academy. Craig Bohl is in his tenth season at Wyoming, so these two coaches are very familiar with each other. Since Bohl arrived in Laramie, the Cowboys are 5-3 against the Falcons despite being underdogs seven times. Bohl's teams have done a good job of holding Air Force triple option in check. The Falcons have averaged just over 21 points per game in the eight contests (22 points per game at home) and have never scored more than 31. Wyoming has been tested in the first half of their schedule, facing two Big 12 teams (Texas and Texas Tech), Appalachian State, and Fresno State. Air Force has had it much easier through their first five games, with their best opponent probably being Utah State. These teams are 27th and 28th in the latest edition of the AP Poll, so hopefully the winner moves into the actual top 25. Befitting teams bunched so tightly in the rankings, I expect a close game. 

Southern Cal +2.5 Notre Dame

I rarely like to back teams like Southern Cal since they tend to be overvalued by the betting market. But I think this week might be the time to buy them. The Trojans have won their first six games against a slate of bad to mediocre teams. Either Arizona or Colorado is the best team they have beaten and both those victories were close. With those two tight wins, the Trojans are now 6-2 (6-1 in the regular season) in one-score games under Lincoln Riley. The offense, led by reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams is fantastic, but the defense is still bad. After a solid two-week showing against Stanford and Nevada, the Trojans have allowed 110 points the past three weeks (just 97 in regulation though). Now the schedule ramps up significantly in difficulty. Five of their final six opponents, including the Irish, are currently ranked in the AP Poll. I don't think they will make it through unscathed, but I think the wrong team is favored here. While Southern Cal is just beginning their gauntlet, Notre Dame is facing their fourth consecutive Power Five opponent. The Irish lost a heartbreaker to Ohio State, escaped at Duke, and were humbled by Louisville last week. How much do they have in the tank knowing their hopes of a spot in the College Football Playoff are dashed? Under Marcus Freeman, the Irish are just 1-5 ATS as a home favorite with the lone cover coming against a bad Boston College team last season. On the other sideline, Lincoln Riley has been an underdog four times in his career in the regular season (all on the road). His teams have covered in all four games and won outright twice. Anytime you can back the best player in college football catching a field goal, you have to do it.