Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 14-20-1
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Missouri +5.5 LSU
After last week's defensive debacle in Oxford and their poor defensive showing two weeks ago against Arkansas in Baton Rouge, I figured the betting market would sour on LSU. That does not appear to be the case. The Tigers are still laying nearly a touchdown on the road against a more than competent conference foe. LSU is 1-3 ATS as a SEC road favorite under Brian Kelly, covering earlier this season against a bad Mississippi State team, but otherwise playing underwhelming football. Meanwhile, Missouri is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog under Eli Drinkwitz and appears to be the biggest potential challenger to Georgia in the SEC East. Remember the name Luther Burden. Missouri's wide receive leads the nation with 644 yards through five games and with LSU's recent pass defense showings (nearly 700 yards at over nine yards per throw over the past two games), Burden could put up some serious fantasy numbers. After this game, LSU gets five of their last six at home (road trip to Tuscaloosa), but they may already have two conference defeats.
Temple +14 Texas-San Antonio
Someone has to explain this spread to me. Two weeks ago, Temple was roughly a twenty-four point home underdog to Miami. As expected, the Owls did not acquit themselves well in that game, losing 41-7. Now, two weeks later, the Owls are fourteen points underdogs to a UTSA team that has not played well a month into the 2023 season. The Roadrunners are probably getting Frank Harris back, which should be a boon to their bowl hopes, but that implies this version of the Roadrunners would be a ten-point underdog to Miami on a neutral field. I find that hard to believe. To further bolster the case for taking the Owls, consider that UTSA has not scored more than 29 points in any single game this season. To cover a two touchdown point spread, a team needs to score. As I mentioned, quarterback Frank Harris has missed time this season, but in the two games he started, the Roadrunners scored fourteen and twenty points against teams that are allowing nearly thirty points per game on the season. Temple is a bad team, but this spread is simply too high.
Virginia Tech +24 Florida State
Despite three regular season losses, Florida State was dominant last season. Their YPP Net was head and shoulders above the rest of the ACC. I thought they were a darkhorse national title contender heading into the season and I was not alone. Despite their undefeated record and seemingly assured spot in the ACC Championship Game, the Seminoles are not nearly as good as they were last season. Florida State beat LSU to open the season for the second consecutive year, but that game was much closer on the field than the three touchdown final margin would indicate. They followed that victory up with a bludgeoning of Southern Miss. While the victory was impressive, Southern Miss has not beaten an FBS team this season. Then Florida State struggled in their first two ACC games, nearly blowing a big lead against Boston College before beating Clemson on the road in overtime. While the Seminoles are 2-0 in ACC play, their YPP Net is zero. This means the Seminoles have averaged the exact same yards per play as their first two ACC opponents. Both those games came on the road, so we should give Florida State some extra credit there, but the team is not as dominant as they were last season. In fact, you could argue their dominance faded once conference play ended last year. In their past five games against Power Five opponents which includes last year's regular season finale against Florida, the bowl game against Oklahoma, and their three games this season against LSU, Boston College, and Clemson, the Seminoles have averaged 6.85 yards per play (good) and allowed 6.14 yards per play (not good). While two of those games came against LSU and Clemson this season, two also came against Florida and Oklahoma last season (combined 12-14 record) and Boston College this season. The Seminoles have won all five games, but outside of their three touchdown victory against LSU, the other four have all come by one score. Florida State entered as a prohibitive favorite in three of those four games (all but Clemson) and failed to cover in all three. Perhaps I am putting to much stock into Virginia Tech's home victory against a cratering Pitt team, and if my year to date record is any indication, I probably am, but Florida State feels like a team you should be fading.
Akron +6.5 Northern Illinois
One week after foolishly backing the Zips as a favorite, I am back on board with them in their preferred role as an underdog. While Akron is just 1-14 straight up against FBS teams under Joe Moorhead, the Zips are 9-5 ATS as an underdog. If there is a game to lose, the Zips will certainly lose it, but it will be close. The Zips are 1-8 in MAC play under Moorhead, but six of the eight defeats have come by a touchdown or less and three have come by a field goal or less. Plus, their only league win under Moorhead came in their penultimate game last season against...Northern Illinois. The Zips scored 42 points in that game against the Huskies with Jeff Undercuffler throwing for a career high 312 yards. Undercuffler will be getting the start once again as DJ Irons is out with a torn ACL. While Irons is more athletic, the offense never really got going with him this season (averaging seventeen points per game), so there may not be much of a drop off, if any. Northern Illinois has also been bad as a road favorite under Thomas Hammock, posting a 1-4 ATS mark with four outright losses. In addition, this is the most points they have been laying on the road under Hammock. I expect the Zips to play well enough on defense to lose yet another close game.
Arkansas State +17 Troy
One of my few good calls last week was Arkansas State catching a small number on the road against Massachusetts. The Red Wolves dropped 52 points on the Minutemen in their largest margin of victory against an FBS opponent under Butch Jones. The difficulty level increases significantly this weekend as the Red Wolves face the defending Sun Belt champs. Troy dropped two of their first three games, but have won two in a row and are looking to repeat their 2022 pattern of opening 1-2 and winning out. Troy continues to play remarkable defense at the Group of Five level, holding each of their three FBS G5 opponents under 300 yards of total offense. Even against a talented young quarterback like Jaylen Raynor, Troy should win this game. However, this is a very large spread and I don't think Troy's offense will be able to hold up their end of the bargain. To cover this spread, Troy will probably need to score thirty or more points. They have yet to do so against an FBS opponent in 2023 despite facing both Western Kentucky and Georgia State. Western Kentucky's defense is bad and Georgia State's is at beast average by Sun Belt standards. The Trojans scored 24 and 28 points respectively in those two games and one of their touchdowns against Western Kentucky came on an end of half Hail Mary. If this spread were under two touchdowns, I would be inclined to stay away, but seventeen points is too many. The Red Wolves were so bad in their first two games of the season, the market has yet to correct for their recent general competency. The Red Wolves will keep this one close as they push toward saving their head coaches' job.
Louisiana-Monroe +11 South Alabama
While they have yet to play in a bowl game and their overall record is just 10-18, the Warhawks have become a tough out, especially at home under Terry Bowden. The Warhawks have mostly rolled over against the Power Five opponents they have faced (1-4 ATS with the closest loss coming by thirteen points), but they have scared more than their fair share of Sun Belt and other Group of Five foes. Including last week's near miss against Appalachian State, the Warhawks are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog with five outright wins. One of those outright upsets came two years ago against these same Jaguars. The Warhawks entered as a nearly two touchdown home underdog, but prevailed 41-31. In fact, South Alabama has yet to beat the Warhawks in Monroe, posting an 0-4 all-time record. The co-favorite in the Sun Belt West, the Jaguars have had a weird season. They dominated Oklahoma State in Stillwater, but lost at home the following week to Central Michigan. The Jaguars already have a conference loss, so if they have any designs on playing in their first Sun Belt Championship Game, they must win here. However, the series history and Monroe's track record as a home underdog make them the play.
Iowa State +6.5 TCU
When handicapping a game, especially a conference game, one of the things I like to look at is the series history. TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012 and the Horned Frogs and Cyclones have played each season. TCU has a slight straight up edge, winning six of the eleven games. However, the Cyclones have dominated this series in terms of ATS, going 8-2-1 against the betting market. The numbers are especially pronounced in games played in Ames. Iowa State is 3-2 straight up, with wins in each of the last three game and a perfect 5-0 ATS. As previously mentioned, TCU has covered only two times in this series and both of those covers came in regular season finales featuring playoff caliber TCU teams (2014 and 2022) against Iowa State teams that finished with losing records. Iowa State is 10-5-1 ATS as a home underdog under Matt Campbell and has not lost to TCU in Ames since 2015. This Horned Frogs team is good, but not up to the standards of the 2014 and 2022 edition. Take the Cyclones to cover and don't be surprised if they make it four straight against the Horned Frogs in Ames.
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