The Magnificent Seven: Week III

Yikes. Time to burn the game film from last week. I went a career worst 1-6 to drop the overall record to a repulsive 4-10. The good news is, there is at least almost a full season left to try to get back to respectability. And we are just one 7-0 week away from turning things around. :)   

Last Week: 1-6

Overall: 4-10

Troy +3.5 Memphis

Troy nearly did the unthinkable last week, building a double digit lead at Clemson before wilting in the second half in a loss to the Tigers in Death Valley. College football fans with a good memory (or access to the internet) may remember Troy nearly beat the Clemson team that eventually won the national title in 2016, falling 30-24. The week after losing the tight game to Clemson, the Trojans picked up a non-conference victory against Southern Miss. I think history has a good chance of repeating itself this weekend with Troy picking up another non-conference win, this time against another group of Tigers. Memphis did what they are want to do under Ryan Silverfield last week. They struggled against an inferior opponent on the road, falling behind in the second quarter before pulling away and actually covering the two touchdown spread by shutting out Georgia State in the second half. Despite the victory, the Tigers are still just 6-9 ATS as a road favorite under Silverfield and have lost five of those games outright. Collectively, Memphis is just 11-13 on the road under Silverfield, including 2-11 against teams that finished with winning records. Of course, we don't know how Troy will finish the 2025 season, but the Trojans closed last season by winning three of four (after a 1-7 start) and early returns are promising. I like the Trojans to cover and win outright against a Memphis team that historically has all kinds of problems away from the Liberty Bowl and might be looking ahead to Arkansas next week. 

Delaware +10.5 Connecticut

Another bad thing about Gen Z is they probably have no idea these two teams used to share a conference. The Blue Hens and Huskies were members of the Yankee Conference and Atlantic 10 when they were both FCS teams. Connecticut joined FBS a quarter century ago putting this nascent rivalry on hiatus. But now Delaware is in the big leagues (somewhat) and while it is not their conference opener, it is their first time hosting an FBS opponent as an FBS opponent. They opened their FBS life by beating Delaware State two weeks ago. I think the home dog in this spot for a few reasons. First off, both these teams had misleading box scores in road losses to Power conference opponents last week. Delaware lost by 24 points at Colorado, but the Blue Hens played the Buffaloes even yardage wise (outgained 398 to 396) and averaged slightly more yards per play then Deion's charges (6.00 to 5.69). However, they lost the turnover battle 2-0, missed a short field goal, and turned the ball over on downs twice. And they did all that at altitude (or is it elevation?). Meanwhile, Connecticut nearly upset Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, but were outgained by the Orange in both yardage (461 to 416) and yards per play (5.62 to 5.33). Syracuse turned the ball over twice (once via fumble and once on downs) inside the Connecticut 10-yard line, missed a field goal, and threw an interception. Connecticut had a two score lead in the fourth quarter and eventually lost in overtime. The loss probably took a lot out of the Huskies who were looking for their first regular season victory against a Power conference team since beating Boston College in 2022. Now they must go back out on the road against a team looking for a program defining win against a regional rival. These teams haven't played this century, but this game probably means more to Delaware in their first year of FBS with no bowl game to look forward to. Connecticut can't be as motivated for the game as they were last week at Syracuse. Catching double digits at home, the Blue Hens are the play. 

Georgia -4.5 Tennessee

Under Kirby Smart, Georgia is 8-1 both straight up and ATS against Tennessee, winning the past eight in this series by an average nearly 25 points (all by double digits). Georgia is also 20-14 ATS as a road favorite under Smart, despite going off as a double digit favorite 23 times. On the other sideline, Tennessee is 0-4 against Georgia under Josh Heupel, failing to score more than 17 points in any of the four contests and averaging just north of 14 points per game. Do we really expect this year's edition to be any different? The Tennessee offense has looked great against two overmatched opponents, totaling 117 combined points against a depleted Syracuse and East Tennessee State. But Tennessee has been doing that since Heupel got to Knoxville. They have averaged an astounding 53 points per game in their eighteen regular season non-conference games under Heupel. And that has not helped them one bit against the elite Georgia defense. Georgia has looked pedestrian (relatively) in their tune up games against Marshall and Austin Peay, despite winning by a combined 60 points. For a Nick Saban acolyte, Kirby Smart could not be happier. The Bulldogs won easily, but Smart still gets to chastise his team and keep them from eating the metaphorical rat poison. You are getting Georgia at a huge discount in this spot. The Bulldogs have been favored by at least eight points in each of their past eight meetings with the Volunteers. This spread is roughly half that. Georgia will hold the Tennessee offense in check and win by at least a touchdown and possibly double digits. 

Vanderbilt +4.5 South Carolina

I foolishly went against Diego Pavia last week. I will not make that mistake again. As an aside, I watched the 'Any Given Saturday' Netflix documentary a few weeks ago and I will not stand for this Jerry Kill erasure. I know documentarians have to focus on one or two perspectives and I can't blame them for choosing Vanderbilt quarterback Pavia and head coach Clark Lea, but there was not even any mention of Kill as a special consultant or offensive coordinator Tim Beck who came over with Pavia from New Mexico State. The results speak for themselves. Prior to the New Mexico State transplant, Vanderbilt was 9-27 under Lea and he was likely headed for the unemployment line. Since the transplant, Vanderbilt is 9-6 with six victories against Power conference opponents. Their opponent on Saturday, South Carolina, began the season ranked 13th in the preseason AP Poll, but have not looked the part despite a 2-0 start. I know their last game was a bit wonky with the weather delay, but South Carolina was actually outgained by South Carolina State. The Gamecocks trailed 3-0 well into the second quarter before two put return touchdowns by Vicari Swain (three so far on the season) turned the game. If nothing else, hopefully that performance against South Carolina State closed out the absurd LaNorris Sellars Heisman campaign. While watching some games on Friday, I saw Sellars had the second best odds to win the Heisman. I hope no one wasted their money on that ticket. I expect the grind of the SEC to eventually be too much for Vanderbilt. Pavia will probably be nicked up when the calendar turns to November, much like he was last season when the Gamecocks handled Vanderbilt in Nashville. But he is healthy now and the Commodores have been impressive. They did not punt last week against Virginia Tech. That same Hokie defense forced five punts from South Carolina. If Vandy wins this game, they have a real shot at being 5-0 (Georgia State and Utah State up next) before they travel to Alabama on the first Saturday in October. Could the Commodores be in the top ten by then? That might be a bridge too far, but this is a great spot for Vandy. They have those two mid-majors coming up while South Carolina has a trip to Missouri on deck. 

Appalachian State -2.5 Southern Miss

Appalachian State struggled to put away something called Lindenwood last week, winning 20-13 in Boone. However, a closer look at the box score shows the Mountaineers moved the ball consistently (gained over 500 yards and averaged north of seven yards per play), but turned the ball over four times and added a turnover on downs for good measure. They also held Lindenwood to just over 200 yards of total offense. Through two games (against less than stellar competition), the Mountaineers have outgained their opponents by over 600 yards and are nearly doubling them up in yards per play (7.03 to 3.53). They have committed five turnovers, including four lost fumbles, so the start has not been perfect, but I may have to issue a mea culpa after trashing the Dowell Loggains hire. Now the Mountaineers open conference play against a team that was getting a lot of love from folks I respect in the offseason. The Golden Eagles mercifully ended the Will Hall era after last season and stole Charles Huff and many of his players from Marshall. The Golden Eagles were blasted by Mississippi State in the opener and then beat Jackson State in a game marred by a racist social media post prior to the event. Southern Miss has failed to stop the run against both an SEC team and a SWAC team. That does not bode well against an Appalachian State team that has run the ball against the two cupcakes they have faced thus far. Maybe I am giving the Mountaineers too much credit for rolling through Charlotte and Lindenwood without much resistance, but I don't think the market has caught up to how good the Mountaineers might be. Take App on a discount and lay less than a touchdown. 

Tulsa +14.5 Navy

I backed Tulsa last week as a small road favorite and the Golden Hurricane lost outright to New Mexico State. However, Tulsa played better than the final margin. They turned the ball over twice on downs, missed a field goal, and three two interceptions, including one in the endzone. They outgained New Mexico State by nearly 100 yards and more importantly for this game, held the Aggies to 39 yards rushing. Through two games, Tulsa has 18 tackles for loss. Tackles for loss and stuffs are key for slowing down option attacks like Navy's. The Midshipmen have put up 90 combined points in their first two games, but the defense has been leaky. They shut out UAB in the second half last week to pull away from the Blazers, but UAB still moved the ball. They missed a field goal, fumbled inside their own 20, and threw three two interceptions, including one in the endzone in the second half. This is also the most points Navy has been laying on the road since 2019 against Connecticut. That Navy team finished 11-2 while Connecticut finished 2-10. If Tulsa doesn't blow off their metaphorical toes with a shotgun as they did last week, they should be able to keep this one close. 

Texas State +15.5 Arizona State

The general public may have been a year early on Texas State. The Bobcats were the consensus top team in the Sun Belt West last season. They finished 8-5 for the second consecutive season, which was great, especially by the standards of the program since joining FBS, but somewhat disappointing all the same. One of those five losses came to Arizona State in San Marcos, when the Bobcats actually closed as slight home favorites. In fact, the Bobcats were favored in all thirteen of their games last season! If the can manage to knock off the Sun Devils, they could be favored in every other game the remainder of this season as well. The line for the Group of Five CFP bid starts behind South Florida, but two weeks through the season, the Bobcats are a darkhorse threat to become the first CFP participant from the Sun Belt (before leaving for the new Pac-12). Texas State will travel to Tempe to face a wounded Arizona State team. The Sun Devils fell behind 17-0 last week to Mississippi State before taking a late 20-17 lead only to lose it on a long touchdown pass. The loss likely eliminates them from at-large CFP contention meaning their only way back is to win the Big 12. With that in mind, they may be looking past Texas State slightly as the Big 12 Eliminator starts for them next week in Waco. To cover a spread over two touchdowns, Arizona State will need to score a lot of points and generate a lot of big plays. They should be able to effectively move the ball on the ground against a less than stellar Texas State run defense, but quarterback Sam Leavitt has struggled through two games (less than six yards per pass and three interceptions). Texas State is going to be able to score, so even if this game is not organically close, the back door will always be open. Finally, this spread seems way off considering what it was last season. As I mentioned, the Bobcats were a slight favorite in San Marcos. If you give the full three points for home field advantage, last season, Arizona State would have been a four or five point favorite in Tempe. Have these teams combined to move ten points in the opposite direction based on what we have witnessed to far in 2025? Arizona State is clearly worse than they were last year, and while Texas State's early schedule has not been exceptionally tough, they appear to be at least as good as they were last season. This spread is off by about a touchdown. Consider it a gift and take the points.  

The Magnificent Seven: Week II

We went 0-2 in the week night plays, but made up for it with a solid 3-2 showing on Saturday. 3-4 is not too big of a hole to dig out of with thirteen weeks or so to go. Get your shovels ready.   

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 3-4

Iowa +2.5 Iowa State

Matt Campbell has failed at two things at Iowa State: winning a conference title and beating Iowa in Ames. The Cyclones are just 2-6 straight up against Iowa under Campbell and are 0-4 at home. Three of the four losses have come by a touchdown or less and this low number gives you the impression we are in for another tight battle on Saturday. The Cyclones have already banked two wins, edging Kansas State in Ireland and pounding South Dakota in a rough travel spot last week. The Kansas State win lost a little shine when the Wildcats were nearly upset at home by North Dakota and a closer examination of that box score on the Emerald Isle shows some warts. Iowa State was outgained by the Wildcats in both total yardage (383-313) and yards per play (6.72-4.23). Meanwhile Iowa did not exactly cover themselves in glory in a tune up against Albany last week. The final margin (34-7) looked like a typical workmanlike victory the Hawkeye faithful have come to expect under Kirk Ferentz, but transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski completed just north of half his throws and the Hawkeyes passed for less than fifty yards. I thought Gronowski might give the Hawkeyes some CFP upside and be their best quarterback since Brad Banks nearly a quarter century ago. Needless to say, his first outing did not inspire a great deal of confidence. Still, Iowa has beaten Iowa State with worst offenses and Iowa State has not won this rivalry at home since 2011. Take the Hawkeyes to win a low scoring battle and drop Iowa State from the ranks of the unbeaten. 

Duke +2.5 Illinois

The Illini won ten games last season and opened 2025 ranked twelfth in the preseason AP Poll. However, like Stephan Jenkins, they were living a semi-charmed life. Including their bowl victory against South Carolina, they won five times as a betting underdog. They also finished 5-1 in one-possession games. While they do return a copious amount of talent, this was really a six or seven win team in 2024. The preseason hype train is probably moving a little too fast with trouble ahead (and trouble behind). I think said hype train derails on Saturday against a solid Duke team that should probably be favored in this spot. The Blue Devils had a pretty good season themselves in 2024, winning nine games under first year head coach Manny Diaz. They also upgraded at quarterback in the offseason, coaxing Darian Mensah away from Tulane. Mensah led the Green Wave to the AAC Championship Game last season and while it is probably too much to ask for him to do the same in Durham, he should guide the Blue Devils to a fourth consecutive bowl game. Duke has lost three games in Durham since the start of the 2022 season. Those loss have come to North Carolina, Notre Dame, and SMU. Those three teams combined to finish 30-11 with North Carolina and SMU playing in the ACC Championship Game during the respective seasons they beat Duke. Illinois is not in that class. Duke will spring another outright upset at home. 

Fresno State +3.5 Oregon State

Next season, this will be a Pac-12 (or 10 or 8 or you get idea) conference game. For now, it seems like a spot where the wrong team is favored. After a rough opener in Week Zero against Kansas, Fresno State looked like a vintage North Dakota State team in their home opener against Georgia Southern. The Bulldogs ran for 351 yards at nearly eight per clip against the Eagles. They complimented that rushing attack with a strong defensive showing, holding the Georgia Southern passing attack under 200 yards. Meanwhile, Oregon State got waxed at home by a Cal team that preseason prognosticators rated as one of the worst in the ACC. Obviously, Cal's freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (had to look up the spelling) has made it likely Cal does not finish near the basement of the ACC, but Oregon State also struggled offensively against the Bears. The Beavers were held to 65 yards rushing and only managed to score fifteen points. I think the general talent level at Oregon State has fallen off thanks to the (temporary) dissolution of the Pac-12 and the resulting homelessness suffered by Oregon State as well as the loss of their head coach Jonathan Smith after the 2023 season. The Beavers should not be favored in this spot, much less by more than a field goal. Take the Bulldogs to win outright. 

North Texas -10.5 Western Michigan

I've mentioned it time and again. I hate laying points, especially double digits, and especially on the road. However, it worked out last week as Mississippi State covered their double digit spread against Southern Miss. I think we may be in for an encore in Kalamazoo. The Broncos did not score an offensive touchdown last week against Michigan State, recording a pick six to cover the number against the Spartans. They did allow just 23 points, but I think that is more indicative of the kind of offense Michigan State runs rather than an indication of any defensive prowess at Western Michigan. The Broncos will certainly need all the defense they can muster if they hope to knock off North Texas. The Mean Green play fast and score a lot of points under third year coach Eric Morris. Including last week's game against Lamar, North Texas has scored at least 30 points in fifteen of their 26 games under Morris. However, the reason I feel at least slightly comfortable laying all these points is what might be coalescing on the other side of the ball. The Mean Green hired Skyler Cassity to coordinate their defense in the offseason. Cassity coordinated a solid Group of Five defense at Sam Houston State last season as the Bearkats won ten games in just their second season as an FBS program. If North Texas can become a mediocre Group of Five defense, the Mean Green have a real shot to win the American. I know it was Lamar, but the Mean Green did pitch a shutout last week. For comparison's sake, their FCS opponents in 2023 (Abilene Christian) and 2024 (Stephen F. Austin) scored 31 and 20 points respectively. I think the Mean Green put the hammer down as they move to 2-0. 

Virginia Tech -1.5 Vanderbilt

This might be the tipping point of the Brent Pry era in Blacksburg. 38 games into his tenure, the Hokies are 16-22 and have struggled to win games in August and September (6-9 record). They have closed strong each of the past two seasons to get to 6-6, but their early season struggles have put them behind the proverbial eight ball. 2025 continued that trend as the Hokies committed penalties, turnovers, dropped passes, and gave up a special teams touchdown in a neutral site loss to South Carolina. Still, there were some hints of optimism, particularly on defense. The Hokies held darkhorse Heisman quarterback LaNorris Sellers in check until a late deep ball buoyed his passing numbers. While the offense dropped passes and stagnated in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Hokie defense got stop after stop to keep them in the game. Now they return to Blacksburg to face a team that ruined their season in last year's opener. The Commodores jumped out to a 17-0 lead last season in Nashville, but Virginia Tech clawed back and forced overtime only to lose to an ascendant Vanderbilt team led by their irascible quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia has been amazing as a betting underdog, cashing countless tickets first at New Mexico State and more recently with the perennial SEC punching bag. I love Pavia, but I think the Hokies will be ready for him, especially after facing a more gifted mobile quarterback in Sellers. Pavia has been a great bet as a big underdog, but with this spread less than a field goal, a Hokie win almost guarantees they cover this number (famous last words). I was high on Virginia Tech in the offseason and I will not be backing off of them after one uneven performance. 

Tulsa -5.5 New Mexico State

What I'm about to write is not a controversial statement. Coaching matters in sports. New Mexico State is Exhibit A of this phenomenon. Jerry Kill pulled New Mexico State out of a sixty year downturn, guiding the Aggies to back-to-back bowl appearances in 2022 and 2023. The 2023 team was historic in the modern era, beating an SEC team on the road and playing for the conference crown against a team that ended up being the final Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six. After Kill stepped down to focus on his health, the Aggies hired Tony Sanchez. Sanchez is a legend in high school football, winning numerous titles at Bishop Gorman. However, his college coaching career can charitably be described as bad. He lost twice as many games as he won over five seasons at UNLV (20-40) and his first New Mexico State team predictably returned to the basement, finishing 3-9 and 2-6 in the weak Conference USA. The beginning of his second season did not inspire a lot of confidence. The Aggies scored 19 points against Bryant (not Kobe or Bear) of the FCS. This was not a fluky result either. New Mexico State averaged under three yards per carry and gained just north of 300 total yards. For reference, Bryant went 2-10 last season and has been a middling at best FCS team since moving up from Division II in the late aughts. Meanwhile, Tulsa laid it to their FCS opponent, beating Abilene Christian 35-7 in Tre Lamb's debut. Abilene Christian made the second round of the FCS playoffs last season and nearly upset Texas Tech in their 2024 opener. I'm always wary laying points on the road, but Tulsa plays in arguably the best Group of Five conference, has the coaching and talent edge, and put together a solid data point in their first game. Back the Golden Hurricane to win this by at least a touchdown and potentially blow the Aggies out. 

San Diego State +1.5 Washington State

Next season this will also be a Pac (insert number here) conference game. For now though, it is another situation where I think the wrong team is favored. Washington State is probably set in the long term, with Jimmy Rogers taking over the program after a successful two season run at South Dakota State. Things don't look great in the short term though. The Cougars needed a late field goal to beat Idaho of the FCS at home last week. Idaho has been a strong FCS team since transitioning down almost a decade ago. However, the Vandals lost their head coach in the offseason to New Mexico and seemed to be in rebuilding mode, at least early in 2025. Then the Vandals went out and held Washington State to three rushing yards. The Cougars can't blame an abundance of sacks on that paltry total either, as Idaho sacked them just once (for a loss of 19 yards). Perhaps the Cougars improve after seeing live action, but the team I really expect to improve is San Diego State. Second year head coach Sean Lewis began his Kent State tenure with a 2-10 record in 2018. His second Kent State team improved by four games and qualified for a bowl. And that was Kent State, a program that is one of the worst in FBS in recent history. San Diego State has a much stronger track record, plays in a brand new stadium in one of the nicest climates in the United States, and is in a much stronger conference than the MAC. His first San Diego State team went just 3-9, but I expect the Aztecs to at least double that win total in 2025. After Saturday night, they will be one third of the way there. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week I

We finally made it through the longest offseason in sports. The season technically kicked off on Saturday with some Week Zero action (queue up Rocky Road to Dublin), but it starts in earnest on Thursday and continues through Monday. Every week of the regular season and again during Championship Weekend and Bowl Season, we'll pick seven games against the spread and give you a little preview of the weekend to come. And if you are so inclined, you can make a wager or two. Odds are courtesy of Fan Duel in case they want to sponsor this blog. These lines have been on the board all summer, so this post went up on Sunday. During the season, look for it on either Thursday or Friday. Thanks for reading.  

Akron +7.5 Wyoming

This is definitely not the biggest game of Week One, but all tickets cash the same regardless of the teams involved. Both the Zips and the Cowboys suffered losing campaigns in 2024. For Akron, it marked their seventh consecutive losing season (third straight under head coach Joe Moorhead), but it was Wyoming's first in a non-Covid year since 2015! The Cowboys attempted to continue the Craig Bohl era by hiring his defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel as head coach, but fell to 3-9 in his first season in charge. Its hard to win at Wyoming. The area is sparsely populated with little access to fertile recruiting grounds and in this new era of college football, their NIL coffers are not overwhelming. The Cowboys have had two successful head coaches in the past 35 years: Joe Tiller (RIP) and the aforementioned Bohl. Early returns do not signal that Sawvel will become the third. In fact, this is the first time under Sawvel that the Cowboys will be favored against an FBS opponent. They were favored in their home opener against Idaho of the FCS last season, but fell to the Vandals en route to a 1-7 start. Wyoming had real issues scoring last season, which is not something you want for a team laying a touchdown on the road. The Cowboys were held below twenty points eight times last season and if we remove their 49-point outburst against one of the worst defenses in FBS (New Mexico), they averaged under seventeen points per game. So the Cowboys are in an unfamiliar role and struggled mightily on offense last season, but how have they fared when traveling east recently? Not too good. The Cowboys played regular season road games east of the Mississippi River seven times under Bohl (who remember is one of the best coaches the school has ever had). They were 2-5 straight up and ATS in those games. In some they were overmatched (Michigan State in 2014), but they were actually favored in three of those games (Eastern Michigan in 2016, Northern Illinois in 2021, and Connecticut in 2021). They won two (Northern Illinois and Connecticut), but needed overtime to beat Northern Illinois and edged Connecticut despite being a thirty point favorite! This team is not to be trusted on the road, even against the likes of Akron. The Zips don't have a lot to play for this season, being ineligible for the postseason thanks to a low APR score, and they have not had much straight up success under Moorhead (8-28 overall in three seasons). However, they have been tough ATS as a home underdog, posting a 7-3 mark. They have sealed the deal just three times in those ten games, so I expect Akron to lose by doing something incredibly stupid at the worst possible time (Zips have a -32 turnover margin under Moorhead), but they should stay within this number. 

Charlotte +6.5 Appalachian State @ Bank of America Stadium

These two teams both entered FBS at around the same time (2014 for App State and 2015 for Charlotte), are located in North Carolina, are breaking in new coaches, and their mascots end in 'ers' (49ers and Mountaineers), but the similarities end there. App State was an FCS power before transitioning to FBS, while Charlotte was a football startup before their transition. App State has had just one losing season as an FBS program (for the pedants, I know they were technically FBS before the term existed in the 1970s and 80s) while Charlotte has had just one winning season as an FBS program. Despite their success as an FBS program, I think App State is in their worst position programmatically since they began their maiden FBS season 1-5. After that rough start, the Mountaineers closed the 2014 season on a six-game winning streak and then reeled off double-digit victories in four of the next five seasons (they won nine games in the other). Befitting a program with that kind of success at the Group of Five level, their head coaches got jobs at better (or at least those that pay better) programs. Scott Satterfield left for Louisville and Eli Drinkwitz took the Missouri job. To replace Drinkwitz, who left following the 2019 season, the Mountaineers turned to alum and offensive line coach Shawn Clark. Framed one way, the hire could be deemed a success. The Mountaineers were 40-24 under Clark and played in two Sun Belt Championship Games (losing both). However, its also clear the program slipped under Clark. From 2014-2019 under Satterfield and Drinkwitz, the Mountaineers were 26-23-1 ATS as a betting favorite. Under Clark (2020-2024), the Mountaineers were 13-23-2 ATS as a betting favorite. I know the betting line is not the best way to evaluate a head coach, but the Mountaineers only lost outright five times as a betting favorite under Satterfield and Drinkwitz while doing so thirteen times under Clark. They lost nearly three times as often in twelve fewer opportunities. The oddsmakers and the betting market rated the Mountaineers as a top end Sun Belt team, but they did not live up to the expectations. Can we expect anything different under new coach Dowell Loggains? Loggains spent most of career in the NFL, where he coordinated the offense for the Chicago Bears in 2016 and 2017 and the Miami Dolphins in 2018. I'll save you the trouble of looking those teams up. Their offenses, and the teams in general, were not good. He spent the past four seasons in college, first at Arkansas as a tight ends coach and the past two seasons at South Carolina as an offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks had a decent offense last season, but I live in Columbia, and no one was crying when Loggains left to take take the App State job. Loggains has never been a head coach before and does not have a track record of success on his side of the ball. Contrast that with Charlotte's new coach, Tim Albin. Albin won an NAIA title at Northwestern Oklahoma State in 1999 and was Frank Solich's right hand man at Ohio before taking over the job in 2021. After a rough start, Albin led the Bobcats to three consecutive ten win seasons culminating with an elusive MAC title in 2024. Albin will be a success at Charlotte, but his first season will probably be a challenge. Still, with the 49ers playing an in-state rival with an unproven head coach, catching more than a touchdown, and playing in their city (home games are played in Jerry Richardson Stadium), Charlotte is the pick. 

Ohio State -2.5 Texas

This rematch of one of the 2024 CFP Semifinals is the crown jewel of Labor Day Weekend. These blue bloods last played in the regular season in 2005 and 2006 with the road team winning both games. The winner in each game also capped off an unbeaten regular season and won (Texas 2005) or played for (Ohio State in 2006) the BCS National Title. While both teams just played eight months ago, they will each be breaking in new signal callers. Texas has the quarterback with the better name recognition (Arch Manning), but I'm inclined to agree with noted troll Steve Spurrier who questioned how good Arch was if he couldn't beat out a seventh round pick last season. Meanwhile, Ohio State will start Julian Sayin as they replace the departing Will Howard. Sayin has thrown just twelve passes in his career (compared to 95 for Arch), but he should have a more talented supporting cast around him led by the explosive receiver Jeremiah Smith. This is an unusual spot for Ohio State. Under Ryan Day, the Buckeyes have been a regular season favorite of less than a touchdown just five times (at Michigan in 2021, at Notre Dame in 2023, home to Penn State in 2023, at Oregon in 2024, and at Penn State in 2024). The Buckeyes are a perfectly average 2-2-1 ATS in those five contests, but only one came in Columbus (Penn State in 2023). The Buckeyes were four point favorites, but beat the Nittany Lions in a defensive struggle 20-12. I expect a similar low-scoring affair here with both teams playing it safe with inexperienced quarterbacks. This is also an unusual spot for Texas as the Longhorns have only been road underdogs four times under head coach Steve Sarkisian. They won at Alabama as a touchdown underdog in 2023 (as a member of the Big 12), but are just 1-3 ATS overall in the role. You are getting the Buckeyes on the cheap, so back them in the biggest game of Week One. 

Mississippi State -11.5 Southern Miss

I don't typically like laying points, especially on the road, and especially with bad teams, but I think the market has gone too far in their love affair with Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles finished 1-11 last season (no FBS wins), fired their head coach, and switched out a significant portion of their roster with the reigning Sun Belt champs. Head coach Charles Huff made the unique in-conference coaching change, coming west from Huntington and bringing some of his best players with him. Thats great news for Southern Miss. The Eagles won't go 1-11 in 2025, but I'm not sure the influx of Marshall players makes this team a legitimate contender in the Sun Belt, much less a threat to challenge Mississippi State. The Bulldogs were also bad last season, but at least they were SEC bad. They were bludgeoned at home by Toledo and lost every conference game by at least ten points, but they were also on their third coach in three seasons. With some continuity at the top and a solid returning quarterback in Blake Shapen, the Bulldogs should easily eclipse last season's meager two wins and potentially even win a conference game for the first time since mid-2023. Mississippi State plays fast, which is what you want to see from a team laying a lot of points. I don't think they will take their in-state rival lightly after what Toledo did to them last season. Take the Bulldogs to rout the Golden Eagles. 

Northwestern +6.5 Tulane

One of my handicapping methods is betting against anomalies and this game fits that perfectly. Tulane has been quite good over the past few seasons, appearing in three consecutive AAC (now American) Championship Games. They have also appeared in the AP Poll in each of the past three seasons. However, this recent come up is an outlier for the Green Wave. After finishing unbeaten in 1998 under Tommy Bowden, Tulane posted just five winning seasons between 1999 and 2021. The also marks the first time Tulane has been favored against a power conference opponent in a very long time. Since 2005, Tulane has played 32 power conference teams and been an underdog in every one. They are 3-29 straight up in those games, albeit a more respectable 14-18 ATS. As for Northwestern, they are 21-6 straight up against non-power conference opponents since 2005. They have been favored in all 27 games except one. Their ATS record has been bad (9-17-1), but that is a function of the Wildcats being healthy favorites in nearly every game and enduring some close calls. I'm expecting Northwestern to have their best offense in recent memory thanks to the addition of quarterback Preston Stone via the transfer portal. Stone led SMU to an unbeaten conference record in 2023, but broke his leg in the regular season finale against Navy. He struggled upon returning in 2024 and was ultimately replaced by Kevin Jennings who led SMU to an undefeated ACC regular season and the expanded CFP. An outright victory by the Wildcats would not surprise me. 

UTEP +6.5 Utah State

The Miners and Aggies are two ships passing in the night. Next year, UTEP will join the Mountain West while Utah State (along with Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State from the Mountain West and Texas State from the Sun Belt) will join Oregon State and Washington State in whatever the Pac-12 is calling its new incarnation. These two teams have faced off three times, with Utah State winning all three games. However, two of the games occurred in the 1960s and the most recent came in 2014. Interestingly, each Aggies win has been by almost the exact same score. They won 20-7 in 1960 and then won by identical 21-6 scores more than fifty years apart (1961 and 2014). I'm not a man who makes a lot of bold predictions, but I dare say this UTEP team will score the most point they ever have against Utah State and may even eclipse their point total for the three previous games combined. The Miners have better continuity at the top, as head coach Scotty Walden enters his second season in El Paso after a successful run at Austin Peay in the FCS. Meanwhile, Utah State is on their third coach in three seasons after Blake Anderson coached the team for three seasons (2021-2023), but was fired in July before the 2024 season began. Defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling was named the interim coach and the Aggies struggled through a lost season finishing 4-8. In the offseason, they lured Bronco Mendenhall from conference rival New Mexico. Mendenhall will be successful long term in Logan, but I don't think his team should be laying nearly a touchdown in their opener. Utah State is Mendenhall's fourth stop, so I went and looked to see how his previous three schools performed in his debut. Mendenhall's first head coaching job was at BYU in 2005. The once proud Cougar program was coming off of three consecutive losing seasons under Gary Crowton. The Cougars were slight home underdogs to Boston College in their opener and lost 20-3. Mendenhall stayed in Provo for eleven seasons before taking the Virginia job in 2016. Virginia was coming off four consecutive losing seasons under Mike London and opened the Mendenhall era by hosting Richmond of the FCS. The Cavaliers were upset by the Spiders 37-20. Richmond ended up being a good FCS team, advancing to the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs. Mendenhall coached Virginia for six seasons before retiring after 2021. He did not coach for two seasons before taking the New Mexico job in 2024. The Lobos were in very bad shape when he arrived, coming off of eight consecutive losing seasons under Bob Davie and Danny Gonzales. The Lobos opened the season as hefty home underdogs to Montana State of the FCS. New Mexico played well, but coughed up.a fourth quarter lead in losing to the eventual FCS runner-up. So, in three previous openers, Mendenhall's teams are 0-3, with two losses to FCS teams. His teams eventually end up being successful, but they are not great out of the gate. Were this game being played in 2026, I could probably get behind Utah State. But in an opener against a team with a successful coach of their own who is in his second season, I have to back the underdog. 

Rice +13.5 Louisiana-Lafayette

Rice enters 2025 with a new football coach. The Owls hired a coach intimately familiar with winning at small academically minded institutions. Scott Abell coached Washington and Lee from 2012 to 2017 and has been the head coach at Davidson since 2018. In those thirteen seasons, Abell suffered just one losing campaign. If he has similar success at Rice, he may not be around long. The Owls have had just four winning seasons since 2007. Give the Owls credit though, they know the score. They have had just two head coaches in those eighteen seasons, giving their leaders plenty of time to try and push that boulder up the hill. Rice will be transitioning to a version of the option under Abell, so there may be some growing pains, but I expect this hire to be a success in the long run. To open the Abell era, Rice will travel to Louisiana-Lafayette, a team that ended last year on a down note, but still won ten games for the fourth time in school history. The Ragin' Cajuns were building to last season under third year coach and alum Michael Desormeaux. In his first two seasons, Louisiana-Lafayette finished with identical 6-7 records before winning the Sun Belt West last year. They lose a lot from last year's team so some regression should be expected. With that in mind, I have a hard time understanding this number. Its not a perfect metric, but if this game were played last year, the Simple Rating System would have made this spread about twelve points. Louisiana-Lafayette's SRS was slightly above average last season (0.99) while Rice was their usual below average self (-7.88). The difference between these two teams was about nine points and if you give three points for homefield advantage, that comes to twelve. Once again, that was last season. With marginal regression at Louisiana-Lafayette and potential improvement at Rice, this line should be closer to nine or ten points. Then couple in the fact that Rice should be running the ball and by extension chewing the clock, it will be hard for the Ragin' Cajuns to get margin. There is potential Rice is flat out bad in 2025 as they switch to the option, but I think this is a spot to bet into uncertainty. I would not be surprised if Rice catches Louisiana-Lafayette flatfooted and wins this game outright. 

Strangers in the Field: Part X

Hard to believe I have been making the pilgrimage to Vegas for ten years. Read on for my investment portfolio. 

College Football Plays

Over/Under Win Totals

I made 49 college football win total plays (four more than last year). They are listed below, broken down by conference. 

AAC Plays

East Carolina under 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

The Pirates won four of their final five regular season games after firing Mike Houston in 2024. The wins were good, but the competition was not great. I think the Pirates come back to earth, especially with two power conference teams (BYU and NC State) on the non-conference schedule. 

Florida Atlantic over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $50)

I like hire of Zach Kittley as head coach and I expect this offense to do enough to get the Owls close to a bowl game. 

Navy under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $50)

The Midshipmen were good last season, but their turnover margin (+10) spells regression. Eight wins is still a good season for a service academy. 

Rice over 3.5 wins ($400 to collect $650)

This, along with Virginia Tech, is my biggest win total play. People are sleeping on Rice, but I expect the hire of Scott Abell and the implementation of the triple to provide immediate dividends. 

Tulane under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

The non-con is tougher that it initially appears with three power conference teams (Duke, Northwestern, and Ole Miss). The Green Wave may be favored in two of those games, but 0-3 or 1-2 is entirely possible. 

ACC Plays

California over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $52.50)

I'll make the contrarian play here. There is not a guaranteed win on the schedule outside of Texas Southern, but I think the market is too low on a Cal team that lost five games by a touchdown or less last season.  

Clemson under 10.5 wins ($50 to collect $83.35)

I found a stray ten and a half and had to play it (rest of market is at nine and a half). Georgia Tech, Louisville, LSU, North Carolina, SMU, and South Carolina are all potentially losable games. This is not the late 2010s Clemson team. 

Miami under 9.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.15)

Miami beat me last year when I had under nine and a half. I'm back for more punishment. The Hurricanes gain Carson Beck, but lose the number one pick in the NFL Draft who papered over a lot of their problems last season. 

NC State over 6.5 ($25 to collect $53.75)

After disappointing with a 6-7 mark, I think NC State is back in the eight or nine win range. The only surefire loss on the schedule is a road trip to Notre Dame. 

Virginia Tech over 6.5 wins ($400 to collect $860)

For some reason all the gambling podcasts I listen to are down on the Hokies. I look at their 2024 season and see a team that led at halftime in seven of their eight ACC games (four times by double digits). If the Hokies can close games out, they could be headed to the ACC Championship Game. 

Big 10 Plays

Illinois under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $62.50)

Not buying the preseason hype. This team was extremely fortunate to win ten games last season. I wish this total had been eight and a half, but I had to play it out of principle. 

Maryland over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $48.80)

I hated the Mike Locksley hire at first, but maturity involves admitting when you were wrong. Prior to lats season, Maryland had played in three consecutive bowl games. With a schedule devoid of Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State, I think they come close to bowl eligibility. 

Michigan under 8.5 wins ($50 to collect $122.50)

The Wolverines won eight games last season, but could easily have finished 6-6 or 5-7. The pulled two massive upsets in their final two games (Ohio State and the bowl against Alabama), but also won tight games against Michigan State, Minnesota, and Southern Cal. Not only are there challenging road games on the slate (Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Southern Cal), but the home schedule has some land mines as well (Ohio State, Washington, and Wisconsin). 

Northwestern over 3.5 wins ($50 to collect $80.30)

There are two guaranteed wins on the slate (Louisiana-Monroe and Western Illinois). I think the Wildcats are good enough to find two more. 

Oregon under 10.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

Road trips to Iowa, Penn State, and Washington, as well as home titles with Indiana, Southern Cal, and Wisconsin make me think the Ducks lose at least twice in 2025. 

Penn State under 10.5 wins ($25 to collect $43.50)

The Nittany Lions are likely your preseason number one team. However, back to back road trips to Iowa and Ohio State could ruin push them under this number. 

Wisconsin over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $56.25)

The schedule is brutal, but I think the Badgers pull off an upset or two to get to a bowl game. 

Big 12 Plays

Arizona State under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $45)

The Sun Devils were legitimately good last season, but I still expect regression. The Big 12 is too deep to have a team win back to back titles. 

Oklahoma State over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $60)

Does Mike Gundy have one more good ride in him? The Cowboys were the second best team in the Big 12 heading into last season based on the preseason consensus. They did not win a single conference game. I think they bounce back and get to a bowl. 

Texas Tech under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $52.50)

I have two theories with the new world of college football (NIL and the transfer portal). Full on transplants are very likely to succeed (see Western Kentucky in 2021 and Indiana and Vanderbilt in 2024 as prominent examples), but buying a nearly full roster does not work as well. Football requires too much continuity and free agency is not a way to build a winner. It can augment a team, but rosters have to be built from the high school ranks. We'll see if the Red Raiders refute my theory, but they have not finished with more than eight regular season victories since 2008. 

UCF over 5.5 wins ($50 to collect $90)

The Knights were much better than their 4-8 record last season. Hopefully they can at least get to a bowl.

Conference USA Plays

Delaware over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25)

Welcome to FBS Blue Hens! Delaware has a solid history as an FCS program and I expect them to immediately be competitive in Conference USA. 

FIU over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $50)

I love the coaching hire and the Panthers were better than their record in 2024. 

Jacksonville State under 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $36.90)

Its a story as old as time. Mid to low level college football team peaks. Coach uses that peak to angle for a better job. Mid to low level team declines. The Gamecocks can get to a bowl and still cash this under bet. 

Middle Tennessee State over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

I though Derek Mason would have the Blue Raiders competitive in his first season. Never wrong. Just early. 

Missouri State under 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $45.85)

Missouri State does not have the FCS history of Delaware and I think they will struggle in their maiden voyage. 

Sam Houston State under 4.5 wins ($200 to collect $410)

KC Keeler is a great football coach. Unfortunately for the Bearkats, he is now the head coach at Temple. 

Independent Plays

Connecticut under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.85)

The Huskies won eight regular season games last year. That was their most regular season victories since winning the Big East in 2010. So how can we expect them to equal that win total, especially with three power conference teams on the schedule (Boston College, Duke, and Syracuse)? A bowl should be the goal, not eight wins. 

MAC Plays

Ball State over 3.5 wins ($50 to collect $90)

I like the coaching hire and I think the Cardinals can be a mid-level MAC team in Mike Uremovich's first season. 

Buffalo under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $52.50)

I think the Buffalo hype train might be picking up a little too much steam. The Bulls closed the regular season on a four game winning streak (the bowl made five), but they laid some eggs against the better teams on the schedule. Let's not pencil them into the MAC Championship Game yet. 

Eastern Michigan over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $46.75)

Chris Creighton has been at Easter Michigan for eleven seasons. He has guided the Eagles to at least five regular season wins in the past eight non-Covid years. Its a testament to what he has built that last season's 5-7 record is seen as a disappointment. 

Kent State over 1.5 wins ($100 to collect $164.50)

I love to dumpster dive and there is not a more distressed asset than Kent State. The Golden Flashes have not beaten an FBS team since the 2022 regular season finale. If they beat Merrimack in the opener, they need to find one MAC win to make this a winner. But if they lose to the Warriors...

Kent State over 2 wins ($25 to collect $51.25)

Once again, I'm taking a flyer on Kent State. They fired their coach in the spring and they can't possibly be worse than they were under his 'tutelage'. 

Mountain West Plays

Air Force over 5.5 wins ($50 to collect $78.55)

The Falcons closed last year strong (four consecutive wins after a 1-7 start) and I think they bounce back after a rare losing season under Troy Calhoun.

Boise State under 9.5 wins ($25 to collect $67.50)

In the ten non-Covid years since Chris Petersen left Boise, the Broncos have lost at least three regular season games six times. The Broncos were the first Group of Five team to make the expanded College Football Playoff, but I think there are a few losses on this schedule starting with the opener at South Florida. 

Fresno State over 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

I like the hire of Matt Entz (former North Dakota State coach) and after their Week Zero tilt with Kansas, the Bulldogs may only be an underdog in one other game (Boise State). 

New Mexico over 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $53.75)

I like the hire of Jason Eck from Idaho and while the Lobos lose a lot from last year's surprise 5-7 team, they have more several winnable games on the slate (Idaho State, New Mexico State, Nevada, and Utah State). 

San Diego State over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25 wins)

Sean Lewis brought Kent State to respectability in his second season and I expect no less at a program with infinitely more resources. 

UNLV under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $45.85)

Take a look at UNLV's football history. The past two seasons stick out like a sore thumb. I don't think the Rebels sink to a losing record, but they are probably back to being a mid-level Mountain West team. 

SEC Plays

Florida under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $44.25)

The Gators won seven regular season games in 2024 despite a brutal schedule. The schedule is just as arduous in 2025 and they won't be sneaking up on anyone. 

Kentucky over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $47.75)

I'll take a chance on Mark Stoops righting the ship. The Wildcats don't even have to get to bowl eligibility to cash this ticket. Of course, it could be dead in the water if they lose the opener to Toledo. 

Missouri under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $38.90)

The Tigers were much worse than their record last season. I think regression comes for them hard in 2025. 

South Carolina under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25)

The Gamecocks had five players drafted from last year's defense. Even if LaNorris Sellers continues to improve, I think this team declines. 

Sun Belt Plays

Appalachian State under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $58.75)

I hate the head coaching hire. If the Mountaineers lose their opener to Charlotte, it could be one and done for Dowell Loggains. 

Arkansas State under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $39.70)

The Red Wolves were an incredible 7-1 in one-score games last season. Regression is coming. 

Georgia Southern under 7.5 wins ($50 to collect $82.25)

Trust Clay Helton with more than modest expectations at your own peril. 

Georgia State under 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $45)

I'm starting to regret this bet a bit, but the Panthers will be behind the eight ball after a likely 1-3 non-conference slate. 

Louisiana-Lafayette under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $48.80)

Before dropping the Sun Belt Championship Game and their bowl, 2024 was a special season for the Ragin' Cajuns. I expect a drop off, especially with South Alabama, Southern Miss, and Texas State (and maybe even Troy) providing stiff competition in the West Division. 

Marshall under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $37.50)

Most of their team left to join head coach Charles Huff at Southern Miss. This is a rebuilding year in Huntington. 

College Football Futures

Auburn to win the SEC ($10 to collect $260)

Auburn historically underachieved relative to their YPP and 1HPD last season. With some better luck, I think they have the upside to potentially get to the SEC Championship Game. 

Iowa to make the College Football Playoff ($10 to collect $80)

The Hawkeyes are always strong defensively and with the addition of South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski at quarterback, the offense has potential to make things interesting in the Big 10. 

Utah to win the Big 12 ($10 to collect $57.50)

The Utes should bounce back in their second season in the Big 12 and in a wide open league, they have a good a shot as anyone to capture the conference crown. 

UTSA to make the College Football Playoff ($10 to collect $230)

At least one Group of Five team has to make the College Football Playoff. If the Roadrunners can win the AAC and hang tough with Texas A&M in the opener, they should be in the conversation. 

Washington to make the College Football Playoff ($10 to collect $100)

Quarterback Demond Williams only saw significant action in their final two games (both losses by the way), but he has the potential upside to make the Huskies Big 10 contenders. 

College Football Parlay ($10 to collect $94.90 - all must hit)

August 28

NC State moneyline over East Carolina

I think the Wolfpack get revenge for last season's bowl loss to the Pirates. 

August 28

UCF moneyline over Jacksonville State

The Gamecocks should be outclassed against the Knights in Scott Frost's return to Orlando.

August 29

Colorado +4 Georgia Tech

The Buffaloes are tough at home and Georgia Tech might be getting a little too much offseason love for a team coming off back to back 7-6 campaigns. 

August 30

Northwestern +6.5 Tulane

I would not be surprised if the Wildcats won outright. 

August 30 

Rice +14 Louisiana-Lafayette

Rice is one of my biggest over plays this season, so naturally I think they can keep this game close. 

MLB Futures

Tampa Bay Rays to win American League ($10 to collect $190)

In late June, the Rays were 47-36. They are 9-23 since and more importantly, 6-12 since I made this bet. I can probably throw this one in the trash. 

Thanks for reading my annual Vegas trip summary. The season gets underway in sixteen days with Week Zero. There won't be enough games for spread picks that weekend, but I'll be back with weekly picks shortly after that Saturday appetizer. 

First Half Point Differential: The 2024 Power Four

Two weeks ago, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season. This week, we do the same with the Power Four.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2024 ACC standings. 

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded).

The first and third ranked teams in 1HPD met in the ACC Championship Game, with the third ranked team pulling off a small upset. More on the team that finished second in IHPD later. 

Big 10

The 2024 Big 10 standings.

1HPD in Big 10 play (title game excluded). 

The first and fourth ranked teams in 1HPD met in the Big 10 Championship Game with the top ranked team holding on to win. However, the top four teams in 1HPD were all selected for the expanded College Football Playoff with the third ranked team winning it all. At the bottom of the 1HPD standings, Purdue made their nine Big 10 opponents look like Oregon, posting a horrid -152 1HPD and getting Ryan Walters fired in the process. 

Big 12

The 2024 Big 12 standings.

1HPD in Big 12 play (title game excluded). 

Arizona State finished first in 1HPD and won the Big 12 Championship Game in their first season in the conference. However, their opponent in the title game (Iowa State) finished a distant eleventh in 1HPD. At the other end of the Territorial Cup, Arizona brought up the rear in 1HPD. 

SEC

The 2024 SEC standings. 

1HPD in SEC play.

Texas finished first in the SEC in 1HPD in their first season in the conference, but lost the SEC Championship Game to Georgia. The other SEC newcomer from the Big 12 did not fare as well. Oklahoma finished ahead of only winless Mississippi State in 1HPD. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Four conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Missouri finished 5-3 in SEC play, but the Tigers trailed at the half in five of their conference games and entered halftime tied in two others. Iowa State won seven Big 12 games and thanks to tiebreakers, qualified for the Big 12 Championship Game. While the Cyclones only trailed at the half in two of their nine conference games, most of their games were still in doubt during the intermission. They led at the half in six conference games, but five of those leads were by five points or fewer. Miami nearly played in the ACC Championship Game before ironically blowing a second half lead to Syracuse. Turnabout was fair play, as the Hurricanes trailed at the half in four of their eight ACC games, including twice by double digits. Georgia won their second SEC title in three years, but trailed at the half in four of their eight SEC games. 

And now the underachievers. 

Virginia Tech finished second in the ACC in 1HPD, leading at the half in an astounding seven of their eight conference games! Kentucky won just a single SEC game, but the Wildcats were competitive at the half in a majority of their games. They led at the half in three conference games, were tied in another, and trailed by a touchdown or less in two more. Wisconsin won just a third of their Big 10 games, but led at the half in two thirds of their conference games, including four times by double digits. Utah failed to live up to their preseason expectations in 2024, but the Utes led at the half in three Big 12 games, were tied in another, and trailed by a touchdown or less in three more. Auburn mastered giving games away in 2024. The Tigers were ahead or tied at the half in five of their eight SEC games. In Mack Brown's final season in Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels finished with a losing ACC record despite leading at the half in four of their eight conference games. They led by double digits in three of those games, and were tied or within a touchdown at the half in three more. Now another septuagenarian will attempt to bring the Tar Heels to the forefront of college football. Finally, Nebraska finished 3-6 in Big 10 play, but led by double digits at halftime in three of their conference games, led by a touchdown in another, and were tied in two others. 

Thanks once again for your continued patronage. I'll be back in a few weeks with a Vegas betting recap and then it will almost be time for the season to start. 

First Half Point Differential: The 2024 Group of Five

After a bit of a hiatus, we return to our review of the 2024 college football season.This week, we will look at how each Group of Five conference played out in terms of First Half Point Differential (1HPD). As I have mentioned before, 1HPD is a very advanced stat. It tells us how many points a team either outscored or was outscored by their opponents in the first half of games. If you need additional background on this statistic, I invite you to look up each word individually. Why do we look at this stat? Its far from a perfect measure, but it can sometimes point us toward teams that are due for improvement or regression the next season.  In theory, teams that pull off a lot of second half comebacks might not be as fortunate the next season and teams that lead at the half, but can't quite close the deal might be better than their actual record. It helps guide some of my over/under win total bets, but your mileage may vary.

American Athletic Conference

The 2024 AAC standings. 

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the AAC Championship Game with the top team winning in somewhat dominant fashion. At the other end of the AAC, Tulsa was dead last by a significant margin. Their 1HPD was more than twice as bad as the second worst team (Temple).

Conference USA

The 2024 Conference USA standings.

1HPD in Conference USA play (title game excluded).

The top two teams in 1HPD also met in the Conference USA Championship Game. While the top two teams were close in 1HPD, their matchup in the title game was not. Western Kentucky opened the scoring with a field goal, but Jacksonville State outscored the Hilltoppers 52-9 the rest of the way. 

Mid-American

The 2024 MAC standings. 

1HPD in MAC play (title game excluded).

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the MAC Championship Game (sensing a theme here?). Much like Conference USA, while the top two teams were close in 1HPD, the title game was not. Miami kicked a field goal to go up 3-0, but Ohio scored the final 38 points of the game to win their first ever MAC Championship Game and first MAC title since 1968. At the bottom of the MAC standings, Kent State's 1HPD was more than twice as bad as the second worst team (Eastern Michigan). 

Mountain West

The 2024 Mountain West standings. 

1HPD in Mountain West play (title game excluded). 

Like the previous three Group of Five conferences, the top two teams in 1HPD met in the Mountain West Championship Game. And once again, despite the relative tightness of the top two teams in 1HPD, the title game was not especially close. 

Sun Belt

The 2024 Sun Belt standings. 

1HPD in Sun Belt play (title game excluded). 

The Sun Belt was the streak breaker in 2024. The top two teams did not meet in the Sun Belt Championship Game. However, the teams ranked second and third in 1HPD did face off in the title game. Like the other Group of Five title games, this one was also a dud, at least from a competitive standpoint. I suppose if you were a Marshall fan, you were not overly concerned about the competitiveness. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Tulsa technically overachieved since a team with their 1HPD (trailed on average by 23 points per game at the half) usually finishes winless in conference play. In Tulsa's lone league win, they overcame a 28-point halftime deficit against UTSA. Boise State never trailed at the half in Mountain West play, but they were tied in three games, and held a lead of less than a touchdown in another. Colorado State rode an easy conference schedule to a 6-1 record and nearly qualified for the Mountain West Championship Game. However, the Rams trailed at the half in two of their seven conference games and were tied in another. Louisiana-Lafayette only trailed at the half in one of their Sun Belt games, but they were down by three touchdowns which significantly suppressed their overall numbers. Finally, East Carolina finished with a winning record in AAC play despite trailing at the half in four of their eight conference games, including three times by double digits. 

And now the underachievers. 

Tom Herman lost his job at Florida Atlantic because the Owls could not close the deal. They won just a single game in AAC play despite leading at the half in four games and trailing by more than a touchdown at halftime just once. Nevada was not a good team in 2024, but their profile did not befit a team that finished winless in conference play. The Wolfpack were tied or leading at the half in three of their seven conference games. UTSA finished with a .500 record in AAC play despite leading at the half in five of their eight conference games. Their under-performance is mostly explained by their shocking loss to Tulsa I mentioned above. Four seasons after winning the MAC in the Covid-impacted 2020 season, Mike Neu lost his job at his alma mater thanks to the Cardinals struggles in the second half. Ball State led at the half in three of their five conference games and trailed by double digits in just one. Finally, Georgia State only led at the half in one of the conference games, but they were tied in two others and trailed by a touchdown or less in two more. The Panthers probably should have won at least one additional conference game in Dell McGee's first season in Atlanta. 

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in two weeks with a look at first half point differential in the Power Four.