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Overall: 37-32-1
Rice +9.5 Memphis
This is the fourth consecutive week we have faded Memphis on this blog. Thus far, we are 3-0. Eventually, the Tigers will cover as a favorite, and it may even be this week, but for now, I don't think the betting market has caught up to how bad (or more accurately, mediocre) the Tigers are. Case in point, under Mike Norvell (coach from 2016 through 2019), the Tigers were a combined 23-11 ATS as a favorite (13-7 at home and 10-4 on the road). Conversely, under Ryan Silverfield (coach since 2020), the Tigers are 9-23-1 ATS as a favorite (4-14-1 at home and 5-9 on the road). Over the past three weeks, the Tigers won a track meet at home against North Texas, nearly lost at home to Charlotte as a massive favorite, and lost at UTSA in a game that was not as close as the final eight point margin. That loss to Charlotte basically ended their conference title and by extension, their college football playoff hopes. ESPN's Football Power Index gives them less than a 1% chance to win the AAC. Will they be motivated to win by margin against Rice with their dreams dashed? More importantly, would they be able to smash Rice if they were properly motivated? The Owls fired their coach a little more than a week ago after a 2-6 start and responded by upsetting Navy last week. Rice's interim coach is Pete Alamar, a man in his mid-sixties who has never been a head coach at any level, so you have to believe he will pull out all the stops in what will likely be a brief period leading the Owls. Rice still has an outside shot at bowl eligibility, needing to sweep their final three games to get to six wins, so I think the motivation angle favors Rice. Like UTSA last week, the Owls also do a good job against the run. Since being gashed by Army in mid-September, the Owls have held their past five opponents to 3.6 yards per carry. If they can avoid giving up explosive runs to Memphis, they should be able to hang in this game. Take the Owls as we continue our fade of Memphis.
UCLA +6.5 Iowa
Don't look now, but Iowa actually has a functional offense this season, especially at home. The Hawkeyes were pretty mediocre on offense in 2021, averaging just over 23 points per game. However, the team regressed significantly on that side of the ball in 2022 and 2023. The Hawkeyes averaged under 20 points per game both seasons and scored at least 30 points twice (in 27 games). This season, the Hawkeyes have actually scored 40 points or more in their past three homes games and are averaging nearly 31 points per game overall. If they maintain this pace, that would be their highest per game scoring output over a full season since 2018 (they averaged nearly 32 points per game over an eight game schedule in 2020). Road games, of which there have only been three, have not been as kind to the Hawkeyes. They are averaging under 20 points per game on the road. Now they head to the west coast on a short week to face an improving UCLA team. The Bruins had a rough four games stretch early in the year where they faced four teams currently ranked in the top fifteen of the AP Poll (Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State). The Bruins lost all four of those, but covered three of them. And since the schedule has eased up, the Bruins have started winning more games. They led Minnesota for the majority of the game, but the Gophers scored a late touchdown to escape. Then the Bruins went on the road and upset Rutgers and Nebraska as underdogs. Not only is this a bad spot for Iowa schedule wise, but the Bruins are also a bad matchup. UCLA's run defense is stout, allowing just 3.3 yards per rush, and that is despite playing four teams with a credible shot at making the college football playoff. Iowa averages nearly six yards per carry and prefer to keep the ball on the ground. They run the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays. UCLA should put them in a few third and longs and put pressure on the Iowa passing game to put them in scoring position. Take the Bruins to cover this number and potentially win their third consecutive game as an underdog.
West Virginia +5 Cincinnati
The Mountaineers and Bearcats were both members of the Big East before conference expansion accelerated in the early 2010s. They met for seven straight years between 2005 and 2011. West Virginia went 5-2 in those seven contests (4-2-1 ATS) including 3-1 (both straight up and ATS in Cincinnati). Obviously those games from more than a decade ago have no impact on this game Saturday, but I like to look at the series history to see if any trends can be identified. As for this game, both teams are off a bye and need to finish strong to get to a bowl. Cincinnati needs to find one additional win on their schedule, while West Virginia is two wins shy of bowl eligibility. The Mountaineers will most likely be starting their backup quarterback, but I don't think there is a major drop off to Nicco Marchiol from Garrett Greene. While Cincinnati has the better record, West Virginia has faced the more difficult schedule. The Mountaineers four losses have all come to teams currently ranked in the AP Poll (Penn State, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, and Kansas State). These two teams feel evenly matched, so this number should be a tick lower (two and a half to three points). Back the Mountaineers in what should be a close game.
Ole Miss +2.5 Georgia
I am wrong often, but I am also confident enough to admit my mistakes. In the offseason, I was not buying into the Ole Miss hype, and even put my money on it. Somehow, thanks to a home loss to a bad Kentucky team, the Rebels are one defeat away from cashing that ticket. However, I don't think that loss comes on Saturday. That Kentucky loss will be studied by historians hundreds of years in the future. As for this game, if we ignore our preseason priors, there is no question Ole Miss has played better in 2024, especially at quarterback. In fact, Carson Beck is arguably a liability for Georgia. Beck has thrown 11 interceptions on the season (tied for fourth most nationally). Meanwhile, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart has thrown just three interceptions (versus 21 touchdowns), while averaging over 11 yards per pass. Georgia has faced the more difficult schedule, with Clemson, Alabama, and Texas currently ranked in the most recent AP Poll. Ole Miss has faced just one team that is currently ranked (LSU) which they lost, but this is the last stand for Ole Miss. If they win out, there is a good chance they will be selected for the expanded college football playoff field. A loss here extinguishes any hope. Georgia can probably survive a loss, especially with Tennessee on deck and a victory at Texas in their pocket. Were I an Ole Miss fan, I would be a little wary of Lane's track record in big games (1-4 against top ten teams at Ole Miss), their performance in Athens last year, and the potential that Georgia has just been sleepwalking through the season. But if I showed you a blind resume of these two teams, you would probably make Ole Miss a slight home favorite. Since they are catching points, you have to back the Rebels.
North Texas +4 Army
The betting market is very efficient, so this line makes you wonder what in the world is afoot. Why is an unbeaten team laying just four points on the road against a defense that can charitably be described as horrendous? This line makes it extremely likely that Army quarterback Bryson Daily is out. Daily missed last week's game against Air Force and the Black Knights put up their worst offensive showing of the season, gaining just 255 yards while scoring 20 points. Perhaps Army is holding him out in the hopes he will be able to play in their game next week against Notre Dame. You don't typically think of service academies being in lookahead spots, but that potential certainly exists. North Texas also represents the best offense Army will have faced all year. The Black Knights have allowed just north of 11 points per game on the season, but North Texas should triple that output even with limited possessions. I've faded Army twice this season and had my teeth kicked in both times. But I'm a glutton for punishment and will probably need to make a dental appointment after Saturday.
South Carolina -3.5 Vanderbilt
Once again, Vanderbilt continued their impersonation of a service academy, covering and winning outright as an underdog at Auburn. On the season, Vandy is 6-0 ATS as an underdog with four outright wins (three as a double digit underdog). They are 0-2 ATS as a favorite, losing one of those games outright. So why are we not backing the Commodores at home facing a team coming off a home upset of a top ten team? Shouldn't we be fading South Carolina? Well, for starters, this is the smallest spread Vanderbilt has faced as an underdog this season. Were they catching double digits as they were for most of the season, or even a touchdown, as they were last week at Auburn, I would advise you to stay away. The market has had a difficult time pricing Vanderbilt this season, but I think we may be looking at an overcorrection here. In addition, while Vanderbilt currently has a winning SEC record (3-2), they do not have the profile of a team with a winning conference record. They have been outgained by more than a yard per play by conference opponents (4.89 to 6.09). The Commodores have been a bit fortunate on the margins. They have converted 3 of 4 fourth down attempts against SEC foes. Meanwhile, their SEC opponents have converted 4 of 8 fourth down attempts. Vanderbilt has also been clutch in the field goal department too, connecting on 8 of 10 attempts in conference play. Their SEC opponents have made just half (5 of 10) of their field goal attempts. And star quarterback Diego Pavia is playing hurt. In the past two games, Pavia has thrown for less than 150 yards in both and averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. Pavia is the engine of this revitalized Vanderbilt team and his diminished mobility is not a good sign against an outstanding South Carolina defensive line. Finally, last week's victory against Auburn has the feeling of a 'Mission Accomplished' game. The victory clinched a bowl bid for Vanderbilt and the Commodores have a bye coming up next week. Don't worry, we haven't abandoned them for good. Once they lose in this spot and give Pavia some time off to heal, I expect we'll be back on them against either LSU or Tennessee over the final two weeks of the regular season.
Louisiana Tech +10 Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is not a team I would typically want to stand in front of. After an 0-3 start to the season, the Gamecocks have won five consecutive games by an average margin of nearly thirty points per game. Most of those teams have been bad, with Liberty representing the strongest victim. The good news for Jacksonville State is Conference USA is arguably the weakest FBS conference, so outside of Western Kentucky (or maybe Sam Houston State), they will not face a good team the remainder of the regular season. However, I think Louisiana Tech presents an interesting challenge for the Gamecocks. For the unfamiliar, Jacksonville State is coached by Rich Rodriguez, accidental creator of the zone read option. The Gamecocks play fast and run the damn ball. In their five game winning streak, the Gamecocks are averaging over 350 yards per game on the ground and over seven yards per carry. Louisiana Tech is not good, but the Bulldogs have been able to stop the run. Opponents are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry this season. The Bulldogs have not been able to run the ball themselves (averaging under three yards per carry), but they may be able to turn this into a rock fight. No team has scored more than thirty points against the Bulldogs in regulation, so if the Bulldogs can manufacture some offense and force some turnovers, they could upend the Conference USA race. Finally, while Sonny Cumbie has not had a great deal of success at Louisiana Tech, his teams have kept the losses at home close. The Bulldogs are just 8-7 in Ruston, but five of those seven losses have come by a touchdown or less, and only one came by more than ten points.
