The Magnificent Seven: Week XIV

We had another good week, although it was probably a bit undeserved. Connecticut got in the backdoor, Illinois pulled off a minor miracle, and Louisiana Tech covered by a point. We'll take it though and hope our luck continues in this melancholy last weekend of the regular season.    

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 51-39-1

Miami (Ohio) +2 Bowling Green

The winner of this clash between the Redhawks and Falcons will clinch a berth in the MAC Championship Game. And in an interesting turn of events, in the first season sans divisions, the MAC Championship Game will be an all-former-East division affair (Buffalo and Ohio are the other teams with a shot at getting in). I think that is interesting because the MAC West has won twelve of the past eighteen MAC Championship Games. But I digress. Miami is gunning for their second consecutive MAC title and third in the past six seasons. The Redhawks finished 1-3 in the non-con with three losses to power conference teams (Cincinnati, Northwestern, and Notre Dame). They also narrowly escaped future conference mate Massachusetts in overtime. However, once conference play began, the Redhawks played like an historically great MAC team. They have outgained their conference opponents by nearly three yards per play (6.81 to 4.02) posting the top per play offense and defense in the MAC. They did drop their conference opener to Toledo, but have won their past six games by an average of nearly twenty points per game. The Redhawks have been great as a road underdog in MAC play under head coach Chuck Martin. They are 16-10 ATS as a in the role with eleven outright victories. The Redhawks have also excelled against Bowling Green under Martin, posting a 5-2 straight up and ATS record against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Falcons have shown marked improvement under head coach Scott Loeffler. In his first three seasons, Bowling Green was just 4-17 against MAC foes. Over the past three seasons, they are 16-7. Their esteem has improved in the betting market as well. In Loeffler's first three seasons, the Falcons were home favorites on just two occasions (1-1 ATS). Over the past three seasons, they have been favored at home seven times. However, they are just 2-5 ATS in those games, including 1-3 ATS this season. The stats favor the Redhawks. The trends and series history favor the Redhawks. And for good measure, Bowling Green tight end, and deserving Mackey Award winner, Harold Fannin Jr. is unlikely to play. The Redhawks should be favored in this spot, so back them catching a couple points. 

Wisconsin -2.5 Minnesota

On a Saturday with massive upsets, we nearly saw another in the Big 10. The Golden Gophers stormed out to an early lead against Penn State, weathered a Nittany Lion comeback, and were in position to take the lead late, but opted for a short field goal and were not able to get the ball back as Penn State ran out the clock. How much does Minnesota have in the tank as they travel to Madison seeking to take back Paul Bunyan's Axe? While the Gophers already have six wins, Wisconsin has dropped four in a row and needs another victory to continue their bowl streak (last missed a bowl in 2001). The Badgers have dropped three home games for the third consecutive season. However, all three of the losses in 2024 have come to teams currently ranked in the top fifteen of the AP Poll (Alabama, Oregon, and Penn State). The Badgers have the better Big 10 statistical profile, having outgained league opponents by about half a yard per play (5.84 to 5.38) while Minnesota is actually underwater against Big 10 opponents (5.13 to 5.36). The Badgers are the more desperate team, are playing at home, and I think Minnesota shot their proverbial load last week. Back the Badgers as a slight home favorite. 

Vanderbilt +10.5 Tennessee

The Diego Pavia money train makes it final regular season stop in Nashville. Most college football observers, and even the most optimistic Vanderbilt fans probably thought Clark Lea would be fired by this point in the season. The Commodores faced a ridiculous SEC schedule along with Virginia Tech in the non-con. But the Commodores transplanted Pavia, tight end and leading receiver Eli Stowers, and some of the coaching staff from New Mexico State, embraced a pseudo triple option philosophy and made life hell on all their SEC opponents. The Commodores are an incredible 6-0 ATS as a double digit underdog this season and have won three of those games outright. Now they have a chance to wreck the College Football Playoff dreams of their in-state rival. Tennessee has averaged over 65 points per game against FCS and Group of Five teams in 2024, but against power conference opponents, they have struggled to score. In their eight games against power conference foes, they have averaged just under 27 points per game, and that includes a 51-point outburst against NC State in the non-con. In SEC play, the Vols are averaging under 24 points per game and have scored more than thirty points just once (against the worst team in the conference). Even with a normal pace, Tennessee would probably struggle to get to thirty against Vanderbilt, but with the Commodores run-heavy attack that operates at a snail's pace, they are probably only getting to the mid-twenties. Seventeen points should be enough for Vandy to cover this number and continue their perfect streak as a double digit underdog. 

Baylor +1.5 Kansas

The two hottest teams in the Big 12 face off in Waco with more than you might think on the line. Kansas needs a win to get to bowl eligibility, something that was unfathomable a month ago. Meanwhile, Baylor still has a snowball's chance at getting to the Big 12 Championship Game (remember their non-conference loss to Utah does not count in the league standings). The Bears have won five in a row after a 2-4 start and had they not given up the Hail Mary to Colorado back in September, would be in much better shape in regards to a Big 12 Championship Game berth. I think this is the peak of the market for Kansas. The Jayhawks have beaten three consecutive ranked teams (Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado) with two of the wins coming by margin at home. However, in their road trip to BYU, the Jayhawks were actually outgained by more than 100 yards and needed a fluke pooch punt turnover to score the decisive touchdown. Baylor is 9-0 against Kansas in Waco since the formation of the Big 12, winning the past seven at home by double digits. I really wanted to see Kansas get to a bowl, but the wrong team is favored here. 

Cal +13.5 SMU

As far as maiden voyages in conferences go, you couldn't ask for much more if you are an SMU fan. The Mustangs are 7-0 in the ACC and have clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game. NC State by contrast is still waiting on an ACC Championship Game berth. But enough Wolfpack strays. SMU has actually won sixteen straight regular season conference games across two leagues. They finished with a perfect league record last year in their final season as a member of the AAC and last lost in their penultimate conference game in 2022 (a road trip to Tulane). Things were dicey in September, as SMU looked bad in a Week Zero road trip to Nevada and then lost at home to what was expected to be a poor BYU team. The Cougars ended up being better than expected and the Mustangs navigated the transition from veteran quarterback Preston Stone (coming off an injury) to youngster Kevin Jennings with aplomb. Meanwhile, Cal has struggled somewhat in their new conference. The Bears are just 2-5 in ACC play with all five losses coming by eight points or less, including three by a combined four points. Despite the change in conference affiliation, Cal has continued their incredibly stratified ATS performance. Under Justin Wilcox, in regular season games, they are 32-17 ATS as an underdog (3-1 ATS in 2024) and 13-18-1 ATS as a favorite (3-3 ATS in 2024). The Bears have been an ATM catching points under Wilcox and I think SMU may be looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game. As I mentioned earlier, they have already clinched a spot and will likely need to win the conference to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff regardless of what happens here. In addition, the Mustangs are 0-2 this season as a double digit home favorite, losing to BYU and playing a tight game with Boston College two weeks ago. Cal is much better than their record and will give SMU all they can handle. Finally, if you are worried about how Cal will play off their emotional rivalry with Stanford, don't be. Under Wilcox, the Bears are 3-3 ATS in regular season games immediately following their bout with Stanford, but 5-1 ATS with three outright wins as an underdog. 

NC State +3 North Carolina

NC State has once again failed to meet somewhat lofty preseason expectations, and as someone holding an under 8.5 regular season wins ticket on the Wolfpack, I couldn't be happier. Despite the setback, I think head coach Dave Doeren may be playing some real three-dimensional chess. Allow me to explain. The fanbase is down on Doeren. The Wolfpack may miss a bowl for the first time since 2019. However, if you look under the hood, this NC State team may be primed for a bounce back in 2025. Grayson McCall was initially set to be the starting quarterback. Injuries have derailed his career since his ascendence in 2020 and he was ultimately forced to retire after suffering a brutal hit against Wake Forest. In his absence, freshman CJ Bailey has taken the reigns of the offense. While there have been some growing pains, assuming the Wolfpack can keep Bailey, this experience will likely pay dividends in 2025 and beyond. Even starting a freshman quarterback, NC State ranks fourth in the ACC in yards per play in conference play. They have also outgained their conference opponents on a per play basis (6.33 to 5.89) despite a 2-5 league record. And while getting to a bowl is not guaranteed, it is certainly a possibility as they go up against their erratic rivals from Chapel Hill. Much like the Democrats did to Joe Biden after his disastrous debate performance, the Tar Heels have pushed Mack Brown aside after a bloodletting at Boston College. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Tar Heels and clued decision makers in that maybe retaining a septuagenarian head coach with a 16-15 conference record since the Covid season, despite having two NFL quarterbacks on the roster may not be in the best long term interests of the program. And without those two NFL quarterbacks (Sam Howell and Drake Maye), the Tar Heels have been terrible as a home favorite in Brown's second stint. They are 0-3 ATS in the role. Plus, NC State has played well in this rivalry under Doeren, posting a 7-4 mark against the Tar Heels, including a 4-1 record in Chapel Hill despite being underdogs in four of the five trips. What victory by North Carolina has impressed you this year? Charlotte? Florida State? NC Central? Virginia? Wake Forest? Back the Pack catching three. 

Auburn +11.5 Alabama

It really pains me to back Auburn in this spot as the Tigers have not won or covered in Tuscaloosa since 2010, when they had a generational talent playing quarterback. However, this is not Nick Saban's Alabama. I'm not saying Kalen DeBoer is not a good coach (he led Washington to the title game last year), but the Tide are not their usual dominant selves. In fact, they have not been for the past couple of years. Between 2008, when Saban got things rolling, and their last national title in 2020, Alabama won 95 regular season SEC games. Only fifteen of those wins were decided by one possession. Since 2021, Alabama has won 25 regular season SEC games (21 under Saban and four under DeBoer). Eleven of those wins have come by one possession (nine under Saban and two under DeBoer). The margins have tightened in the SEC and in the nation at large. Auburn is better than their record, having outgained SEC foes on a per play basis by a better margin than Alabama. The Tigers will probably do something really dumb to blow the game as they have for a majority of the year, but they should not be catching double digits. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

We posted another losing week, but we were also probably a bit unlucky (thanks San Jose). We'll see if we can do better this week as the season inches to a close.    

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 46-37-1

Connecticut +10.5 Syracuse

Syracuse is 6-3 against FBS competition (7-3 overall) in head coach Fran Brown's first season. However, in those nine games, the Orange have outscored their FBS opponents by just eight total points. In other words, Syracuse has been a bit fortunate to win six of their nine games versus FBS teams. The Orange are 5-2 in one-possession games, with two of the victories coming in overtime. Not only are the Orange not quite as good as their record would indicate, but the Huskies also present a bad matchup for Syracuse. Connecticut is a run-oriented team and Syracuse does not play good run defense. The Orange allow over five yards per carry (111th nationally), which is not a good recipe when laying double digits. The Huskies should be able to move the ball on the ground and keep the clock running, which is a friend to underdogs everywhere. Finally, this is a rough spot for Syracuse in terms of the schedule. They flew across the country to face Cal last week, and they host Miami next week. The Hurricanes will be looking to wrap up a spot in the ACC Championship Game, so Syracuse should be motivated to ruin their season. How focused will Syracuse be for a non-conference game against a lesser team, although one that is no longer a laughing stock under Jim Mora? Take the Huskies to keep this one close. 

Illinois -1 Rutgers

Don't look now, but the Illini could finish with nine regular season wins for the first time since 2007 (when they participated in the Rose Bowl). If they are fortunate enough to win out and win their bowl game, they would have ten wins for the first time since their Big 10 championship team circa 2001. The Illini have proven they are not in the elite class of the Big 10, having scored a combined sixteen points in losses at Penn State and Oregon. However, they have been more than competitive against the mid-level teams on their schedule, beating Kansas and Michigan at home, as well as Nebraska on the road. Meanwhile, after two consecutive victories following four straight losses, Rutgers has a shot at winning eight regular season games for the first time ever as a member of the Big 10. That record has mostly been the result of an easy schedule, as the Scarlet Knights have avoided the top four teams in the Big 10 (Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State). Rutgers did post a somewhat impressive non-conference victory against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies have not lived up to their darkhorse preseason hype. Illinois has posted better statistics, both scoring and per play margins, while playing the tougher schedule, so I'll back the Illini in a spot where you basically need to pick the outright winner. 

Louisiana-Monroe +3 Arkansas State

The Arkansas State Red Wolves will be playing in a bowl game for the second consecutive season. The Red Wolves played in nine consecutive bowls beginning in 2011, but won just nine total games between 2020 and 2022. While they have six wins, they have been outscored by nearly 100 points on the season. Five of their wins have come by three, four, two, three, and seven points. They did beat a bad Southern Miss team by sixteen, but most of their wins have been close. A few different bounces here or there and Arkansas State could be looking at a 3-9 season. Their six wins have mostly come against the dregs of the Sun Belt, Tulsa, and an FCS team. They did squeak by South Alabama at home, but their other five victories have come against teams with losing records. Now they face a Louisiana-Monroe team that is desperate for one additional victory. The Warhawks have dropped four games in a row to fall to 5-5 on the season. While they have dropped four in a row, each of those losses has come against a team that will be playing in the postseason (and Auburn). Despite the road trip, Arkansas State represents a step down in class for the Warhawks. Louisiana-Monroe has only played in one bowl game in school history, so they should be motivated to notch their sixth win. They also have better per play and scoring margin numbers than Arkansas State despite facing a tougher schedule. The wrong team is favored here. Take the Warhawks to cover and don't be shocked if they attain bowl eligibility. 

Coastal Carolina -2.5 Georgia Southern

The Clay Helton era in Statesboro appears to be on the verge of producing a third consecutive 6-7 season. For a program with a grand tradition in the FCS, one has to wonder if that is enough for him to maintain employment with the Eagles. There have been some highs (the win at Nebraska in his second game), but also plenty of lows (a 10-12 Sun Belt record for one). A few weeks ago, the Eagles were sitting pretty in the Sun Belt East after knocking off James Madison to move to 3-0 in league play. However, since that win, they have been blown out by Old Dominion, staged a miraculous comeback at South Alabama, and lost at home to a bad Troy team. The 3-0 start seems like a mirage, with one of the wins coming against an awful Georgia State team and the other coming in comeback fashion against Marshall. If one play in either the Marshall or South Alabama comebacks is switched (or if the Eagles drop both), they are an also ran that is struggling to clinch a bowl berth and this spread is probably closer to a touchdown. Speaking of bowl berths, Coastal still needs one more win to get back to a bowl for the fifth consecutive year, so they should be motivated to get it on senior day in Conway. The Chanticleers are the better team, are playing at home, and laying less than a field goal.  

Louisiana Tech +22 Arkansas

Louisiana Tech pulled off one of the more under the radar upsets of the year last week when they went on the road and held Western Kentucky to seven points. The Hilltoppers had not been held to single digits against a Group of Five opponent since 2020. The victory was doubly impressive as it came on the heels of a heartbreaking loss to Jacksonville State where the Bulldogs allowed a Hail Mary to be completed and lost to the Gamecocks in overtime. The win may not have saved Sonny Cumbie's job, but it showed the Bulldogs are still playing hard for the embattled third year coach. Louisiana Tech has one of the best defenses in Conference USA. The Bulldogs are allowing under five yards per play to conference opponents and if we ignore the Hail Mary against Jacksonville State, have not allowed more than 31 points to any opponent in regulation. If the Bulldogs can hold Arkansas to around thirty points, they should be able to score enough to cover this large number. And it is no sure thing that Arkansas gets to thirty. The Razorbacks have one of the worst offensive lines at the power conference level, having allowed 67 tackles for loss on the season (110th nationally). They also have a volatile and mistake prone quarterback. Taylen Green is averaging over eight yards per pass, but he has also thrown eight interceptions on the season and the team has collectively fumbled 23 times (most in the nation). Arkansas needs this game to get to a bowl, but between a home game with Texas and a road trip to Missouri, I think the Razorbacks may take this one for granted. The Bulldogs have not lost a game by more than ten points this season and I expect that trend to continue. 

Utah +7.5 Iowa State

If you played the schedule game back in July or August, you probably marked this game on your Big 12 calendar. Utah played in four of the final six Pac-12 Championship Games (four of the past five non-Covid games) and seemed poised to contend in the Big 12 with the return of quarterback Cam Rising. Iowa State was off a nice rebound season and seemed to have their next star quarterback. So this late-season contest certainly seemed to matter to the conference race. And for one team, it will. Despite two losses in their past three games, the Cyclones are still alive their second Big 12 Championship Game berth. However, 2024 has been a lost season for Utah. The Utes have dropped six consecutive games and stand 1-6 in Big 12 play. Their defense is still among the best in the Big 12, but Cam Rising returned as a shell of his former self before injuries ended his season. His replacements have been less than stellar and Utah has failed to score more than 24 points in any Big 12 game. While Iowa State has the better record and still has an outside shot at getting to the College Football Playoff, their defense has been leaking oil over the past few weeks. In their past four games, the Cyclones have allowed over 1000 yards rushing at nearly six and a half yards per clip! That is not the profile of a defense you want to lay points with on the road in conference play. Utah still has an outside shot at bowl eligibility, and despite not covering last week at Colorado, there did not appear to be any quit in their performance. Back the Utes catching more than a touchdown in Salt Lake City. 

Air Force +3.5 Nevada

A few weeks ago, Air Force fans were probably beginning to get 2013 vibes from this team. That season, Troy Calhoun's seventh in charge at the academy, the Falcons finished 2-10 (0-8 in the Mountain West) with seven of the losses coming by double digits. It ended up being just a blip, as the Falcons won ten games the next season and have played in seven bowl games since that reset season. Anyway, two weeks ago, Air Force was 1-7, with a victory over Merrimack and seven consecutive losses, with six of the losses coming by double digits. But the Falcons seem to have found their form over the past two weeks. They have rushed for over 600 yards in victories against Fresno State and Oregon State and scored 64 total points after averaging under thirteen points per game in their first seven contests against FBS opponents. Now they face a Nevada team, that are improved under first year head coach Jeff Choate, but struggle defending the run. The Wolfpack are 104th nationally in yards per rush allowed on defense. The Air Force run defense is bad as well, so I expect a lot of positive carries and a running clock. With Falcons catching the hook and playing improved ball, they are the play. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XII

We finally broke through with our best week of the season. And while its hard to complain about a 6-1 week, we were pretty damn close to the white whale of 7-0. Check the North Texas/Army box score for more info. Anyway, we'll see how the follow up goes.   

Last Week: 6-1

Overall: 43-33-1

Wyoming +10 Colorado State

In my opinion, the Mountain West was a bit myopic when they announced a scheduling agreement with the surviving members of the Pac-12 (Oregon State and Washington State) and reduced their number of conference games from eight to seven. Contracting the conference season by 12.5% has resulted in a realistic scenario where we will be denied a Boise State/UNLV rematch in the Mountain West Championship Game. No shade to Colorado State, but the Broncos and Rebels are the two best teams in the league. However, they have already faced off this season, with the Broncos winning in Sin City a few weeks ago. Neither the Broncos nor the Rebels play the Rams in the regular season, so if Colorado State wins out to finish 7-0 in league play, they will qualify for the conference title game. The Rams are likely to be favored in their final three games (Wyoming, Fresno State, and Utah State), so this is not a pipe dream. Anyway, the first leg of that Mountain West parlay comes Friday night in the Border War, with the winner walking away with the Bronze Boot. Both teams struggled early in the 2024 season, but have turned things around. Colorado State began the year 1-2, but have won five of six and four in a row despite the absence of star receiver Tory Horton, who injured his knee a month ago and is out for the remainder of the season. Wyoming began the season 0-4 under first year head coach Jay Sawvel, and while they won just two of their next five games, they have covered as an underdog in four consecutive games, with two coming away from Laramie. At 2-7, Wyoming can't get to a bowl game, so I expect them to be motivated to ruin their rivals season. Plus, Wyoming has dominated this series of late, winning seven of the past ten meetings. They have been underdogs (as they are here) in six of those ten games, and have posted an ATS record of 5-1 with four outright wins. I expect a close game in Fort Collins on Friday. 

UTSA +2 North Texas

North Texas gave a master class in how to lose (and not cover) a football game last week. The Mean Green were stopped on downs inside the Army five, threw two interceptions in the endzone, and were stopped on downs another time for good measure. All together, North Texas scored three points on three drives that began with a first and goal and four total trips inside the red zone. The Mean Green are in real danger of squandering a bowl bid after a 5-1 start (although they should be significant favorites against Temple in the regular season finale). Meanwhile, UTSA needs two wins in their final two games to clinch a fifth consecutive bowl game under head coach Jeff Traylor. The Roadrunners won't live up to their preseason expectations, but winning six games would still be an accomplishment, especially after a 2-4 start. Outside of last week's game against Army, North Texas has scored at least 35 points against every non-power conference team they have faced, so they should be able to move the ball against UTSA. However, the Roadrunners run defense is strong, so North Texas will probably be in a few more third and longs than they are accustomed to. And the North Texas defense is still one of the worst in the nation. The Mean Green held Army to 14 points last week, but there were only seven drives by the Black Knights in that game and Army's final drive ran out the clock. The North Texas defense has been especially bad on the road, allowing over 41 points per game in ten contests since Eric Morris became head coach. Couple that with how good UTSA has been as a home underdog under Traylor (5-1 ATS with four outright wins), and you have to back the Roadrunners in this spot. 

Utah +11 Colorado

After a 4-0 start to their first season in the Big 12, Utah has fallen on hard times. The Utes have dropped five in a row, including a gut-wrenching loss to their unbeaten arch rivals in the Holy War last week. The offense has been among the worst of any power conference team. In Big 12 play, the Utes are averaging just north of five yards per play and just under 16 points per game. The defense has remained strong though, allowing just over five yards per play and 20 points per game. Five of their six conference games have been decided by one possession (1-4 record) so the Utes have been competitive in most games. Turnovers have also been a problem, with the Utes posting a -8 turnover margin in their six Big 12 games. Can they rebound from that tough loss as they travel to face a Colorado team that has a shot at returning to the Big 12 Championship Game for the first time in nearly 20 years? Granted, they were not in the Big 12 for a majority of that time, but still, this has been quite the turnaround for Coach Prime. The Buffaloes have won six of seven with the past three victories all coming by double digits. Apparently having a couple future top ten draft picks is a good way to build your team. How well can Colorado transition to from the role of (Travis) hunter to hunted? After last season's showing, not much was expected of the Buffaloes in their second season under Coach Prime. Now Colorado is laying ten points against the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 (and a team that was highly ranked in the preseason AP Poll). Colorado is 0-2 ATS as a double digit home favorite under Deion, with both instances coming last season. Colorado outlasted Colorado State in double overtime and blew a huge lead to Stanford. They have not been trusted to lay a big number since. Utah has dominated this series which became an annual occurrence when both teams joined the Pac-12 in 2011. The Utes are 11-2 straight up, including 5-1 in Boulder with their lone loss coming in 2016 against a Colorado team that played in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Utes covered as nine point underdogs. I expect a similar result here. Utah probably does not have enough on offense to win this game outright, but their defense should keep it within one score. 

Rutgers +6 Maryland

This is a must win game for Maryland if the Terrapins have designs on qualifying for a fourth consecutive bowl game. Maryland is 4-5 and needs to win two if its final three games to get to six wins. Their regular season finale is at Penn State, a team they are 1-9 against since James Franklin became head coach (seven of last nine losses by an average of more than 37 points per game). Go ahead and chalk that one in the 'L' column. So Maryland must beat Rutgers and then Iowa at home next week to have a shot at the postseason. Rutgers also needs one additional win to attain bowl eligibility for the second consecutive season, so both squads should be properly motivated here. But how can a Maryland team that has lost four of five, with their lone victory in that span coming by one point against jet lagged Southern Cal, be laying nearly a touchdown? These team have both been pretty bad in Big 10 play, being outgained by more than a yard per play by their conference opponents. Rutgers has at least had more instances of competency, beating Washington and Minnesota in conference play and handling Virginia Tech on the road in the non-con. Maryland has had one good data point since the September, so I recommend you back the Scarlet Knights catching the points. 

San Jose State +13.5 Boise State

I expected 2024 to be a rebuilding year for San Jose State. The Spartans lost a good head coach when Brent Brennan took the Arizona job in the offseason. They replaced him with Ken Niumatalolo, a coach that struggled over his final few years at Navy. Niumatalolo posted four losing seasons over his final five years at the Naval Academy, so I think being skeptical of his hire was warranted. However, he has proven the doubters wrong, clinching a third consecutive bowl bid for the Spartans. Can they shake up the Mountain West and college football playoff races by upsetting league overlord Boise State? I think they have a shot. San Jose State has a solid run defense, allowing under four yards per carry on the season. I expect Ashton Jeanty to still cross the century mark, as he has in every game this season, but they will be hard earned yards. Boise State is four wins away from a trip to the college football playoff, so the pressure in this game is all on one sideline. San Jose State is just 1-4 against the Broncos since joining the Mountain West, but they are 4-1 ATS, covering each of the past four meetings, including last season in Boise when they blew a large halftime lead. Take the Spartans to keep this one close, and don't be shocked if the college football playoff rankings are shuffled significantly after this game. 

Tennessee +10 Georgia

I understand why this spread is above ten points. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is in concussion protocol and may not play. Even when he has played, the Tennessee offense has struggled. Tennessee is 0-3 against Georgia under Josh Heupel, losing by an average of 22 points per game. And the Bulldogs are probably pissed after their latest showing (or no-show) against Ole Miss. I understand why the spread is this high, but that doesn't mean I agree with it. This Tennessee defense is elite. The Vols have not allowed more than 19 points in any game this season. If we assume Tennessee has their worst defensive effort of the season in Athens, how many points are they allowing? The over/under on this game (48 points) implies a 29-19 Georgia win. I don't think the Bulldogs are scoring close to 30 points. This is not the same Georgia team that ran roughshod through the SEC in 2021, 2022, and 2023. They dominated Texas in Austin, but they escaped a bad Kentucky team by a single point, allowed 31 points at home to the worst team in the SEC (Mississippi State), and were life and death with Florida in the Cocktail Party in the second half after Florida was forced to turn to a quarterback that transferred from Yale. Maybe Athens magic gives the Bulldogs a boost and they force some turnovers and rout Tennessee. I think the more likely result is a rock fight reminiscent of an SEC conference game from the 1990's. In a low-scoring affair, you have to back the team catching double digits. 

New Mexico +12 Washington State

Perhaps one good thing about the expanded college football playoff is the committee does seem to value the performance of non-power conference teams. In fact, when it comes to Washington State, I would argue the committee is holding the Cougars in too high esteem. In the old days when only the top four teams qualified for the college football playoff, undefeated Group of Five teams like UCF never rose higher than 12th (2017) or 8th (2018). Meanwhile, Washington State is currently 18th despite a middling resume. The Cougars have beaten two mid-level power conference teams (Texas Tech and Washington) at home and at a neutral site. Their next best wins have come against San Jose State and Fresno State by two points and eight points respectively. They also lost by three touchdowns on the road to the best team on their schedule (Boise State). And that performance against the Broncos is one of the reasons I believe they will struggle to cover this large number. The Cougars could not stop Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty in their game against the Broncos and they have bene pretty poor at stopping the run all season. Against a weak schedule, their nine opponents have averaged over five yards per carry. Utah State averaged nearly seven yards per carry against them last week! New Mexico does not have an Ashton Jeanty on their roster, but they do have a quarterback and running back combo (Devon Dampier and Eli Sanders) that have combined for more than 1700 yards on the ground at more than seven yards per carry. The Lobos and Cougars should both have success running the ball (New Mexico's defense can't defense the run or the pass), but that constant running will keep the clock moving. New Mexico has an outside shot at bowl eligibility, needing to sweep their final two games to get to six wins in Bronco Mendenhall's first season. They should be motivated against a ranked team at home. This is the first ranked team to visit Albuquerque since Boise State in 2018. Hopefully this result is a little better, but even if Mew Mexico is down multiple scores in the fourth, the back door should be wide open for a Lobo cover. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XI

A perfectly middling week to open November. We'll try and do better with two picks from Friday's games. What could possibly go wrong?  

Last Week: 3-3-1

Overall: 37-32-1

Rice +9.5 Memphis

This is the fourth consecutive week we have faded Memphis on this blog. Thus far, we are 3-0. Eventually, the Tigers will cover as a favorite, and it may even be this week, but for now, I don't think the betting market has caught up to how bad (or more accurately, mediocre) the Tigers are. Case in point, under Mike Norvell (coach from 2016 through 2019), the Tigers were a combined 23-11 ATS as a favorite (13-7 at home and 10-4 on the road). Conversely, under Ryan Silverfield (coach since 2020), the Tigers are 9-23-1 ATS as a favorite (4-14-1 at home and 5-9 on the road). Over the past three weeks, the Tigers won a track meet at home against North Texas, nearly lost at home to Charlotte as a massive favorite, and lost at UTSA in a game that was not as close as the final eight point margin. That loss to Charlotte basically ended their conference title and by extension, their college football playoff hopes. ESPN's Football Power Index gives them less than a 1% chance to win the AAC. Will they be motivated to win by margin against Rice with their dreams dashed? More importantly, would they be able to smash Rice if they were properly motivated? The Owls fired their coach a little more than a week ago after a 2-6 start and responded by upsetting Navy last week. Rice's interim coach is Pete Alamar, a man in his mid-sixties who has never been a head coach at any level, so you have to believe he will pull out all the stops in what will likely be a brief period leading the Owls. Rice still has an outside shot at bowl eligibility, needing to sweep their final three games to get to six wins, so I think the motivation angle favors Rice. Like UTSA last week, the Owls also do a good job against the run. Since being gashed by Army in mid-September, the Owls have held their past five opponents to 3.6 yards per carry. If they can avoid giving up explosive runs to Memphis, they should be able to hang in this game. Take the Owls as we continue our fade of Memphis. 

UCLA +6.5 Iowa

Don't look now, but Iowa actually has a functional offense this season, especially at home. The Hawkeyes were pretty mediocre on offense in 2021, averaging just over 23 points per game. However, the team regressed significantly on that side of the ball in 2022 and 2023. The Hawkeyes averaged under 20 points per game both seasons and scored at least 30 points twice (in 27 games). This season, the Hawkeyes have actually scored 40 points or more in their past three homes games and are averaging nearly 31 points per game overall. If they maintain this pace, that would be their highest per game scoring output over a full season since 2018 (they averaged nearly 32 points per game over an eight game schedule in 2020). Road games, of which there have only been three, have not been as kind to the Hawkeyes. They are averaging under 20 points per game on the road. Now they head to the west coast on a short week to face an improving UCLA team. The Bruins had a rough four games stretch early in the year where they faced four teams currently ranked in the top fifteen of the AP Poll (Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State). The Bruins lost all four of those, but covered three of them. And since the schedule has eased up, the Bruins have started winning more games. They led Minnesota for the majority of the game, but the Gophers scored a late touchdown to escape. Then the Bruins went on the road and upset Rutgers and Nebraska as underdogs. Not only is this a bad spot for Iowa schedule wise, but the Bruins are also a bad matchup. UCLA's run defense is stout, allowing just 3.3 yards per rush, and that is despite playing four teams with a credible shot at making the college football playoff. Iowa averages nearly six yards per carry and prefer to keep the ball on the ground. They run the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays. UCLA should put them in a few third and longs and put pressure on the Iowa passing game to put them in scoring position. Take the Bruins to cover this number and potentially win their third consecutive game as an underdog. 

West Virginia +5 Cincinnati

The Mountaineers and Bearcats were both members of the Big East before conference expansion accelerated in the early 2010s. They met for seven straight years between 2005 and 2011. West Virginia went 5-2 in those seven contests (4-2-1 ATS) including 3-1 (both straight up and ATS in Cincinnati). Obviously those games from more than a decade ago have no impact on this game Saturday, but I like to look at the series history to see if any trends can be identified. As for this game, both teams are off a bye and need to finish strong to get to a bowl. Cincinnati needs to find one additional win on their schedule, while West Virginia is two wins shy of bowl eligibility. The Mountaineers will most likely be starting their backup quarterback, but I don't think there is a major drop off to Nicco Marchiol from Garrett Greene. While Cincinnati has the better record, West Virginia has faced the more difficult schedule. The Mountaineers four losses have all come to teams currently ranked in the AP Poll (Penn State, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, and Kansas State). These two teams feel evenly matched, so this number should be a tick lower (two and a half to three points). Back the Mountaineers in what should be a close game. 

Ole Miss +2.5 Georgia

I am wrong often, but I am also confident enough to admit my mistakes. In the offseason, I was not buying into the Ole Miss hype, and even put my money on it. Somehow, thanks to a home loss to a bad Kentucky team, the Rebels are one defeat away from cashing that ticket. However, I don't think that loss comes on Saturday. That Kentucky loss will be studied by historians hundreds of years in the future. As for this game, if we ignore our preseason priors, there is no question Ole Miss has played better in 2024, especially at quarterback. In fact, Carson Beck is arguably a liability for Georgia. Beck has thrown 11 interceptions on the season (tied for fourth most nationally). Meanwhile, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart has thrown just three interceptions (versus 21 touchdowns), while averaging over 11 yards per pass. Georgia has faced the more difficult schedule, with Clemson, Alabama, and Texas currently ranked in the most recent AP Poll. Ole Miss has faced just one team that is currently ranked (LSU) which they lost, but this is the last stand for Ole Miss. If they win out, there is a good chance they will be selected for the expanded college football playoff field. A loss here extinguishes any hope. Georgia can probably survive a loss, especially with Tennessee on deck and a victory at Texas in their pocket. Were I an Ole Miss fan, I would be a little wary of Lane's track record in big games (1-4 against top ten teams at Ole Miss), their performance in Athens last year, and the potential that Georgia has just been sleepwalking through the season. But if I showed you a blind resume of these two teams, you would probably make Ole Miss a slight home favorite. Since they are catching points, you have to back the Rebels. 

North Texas +4 Army

The betting market is very efficient, so this line makes you wonder what in the world is afoot. Why is an unbeaten team laying just four points on the road against a defense that can charitably be described as horrendous? This line makes it extremely likely that Army quarterback Bryson Daily is out. Daily missed last week's game against Air Force and the Black Knights put up their worst offensive showing of the season, gaining just 255 yards while scoring 20 points. Perhaps Army is holding him out in the hopes he will be able to play in their game next week against Notre Dame. You don't typically think of service academies being in lookahead spots, but that potential certainly exists. North Texas also represents the best offense Army will have faced all year. The Black Knights have allowed just north of 11 points per game on the season, but North Texas should triple that output even with limited possessions. I've faded Army twice this season and had my teeth kicked in both times. But I'm a glutton for punishment and will probably need to make a dental appointment after Saturday. 

South Carolina -3.5 Vanderbilt

Once again, Vanderbilt continued their impersonation of a service academy, covering and winning outright as an underdog at Auburn. On the season, Vandy is 6-0 ATS as an underdog with four outright wins (three as a double digit underdog). They are 0-2 ATS as a favorite, losing one of those games outright. So why are we not backing the Commodores at home facing a team coming off a home upset of a top ten team? Shouldn't we be fading South Carolina? Well, for starters, this is the smallest spread Vanderbilt has faced as an underdog this season. Were they catching double digits as they were for most of the season, or even a touchdown, as they were last week at Auburn, I would advise you to stay away. The market has had a difficult time pricing Vanderbilt this season, but I think we may be looking at an overcorrection here. In addition, while Vanderbilt currently has a winning SEC record (3-2), they do not have the profile of a team with a winning conference record. They have been outgained by more than a yard per play by conference opponents (4.89 to 6.09). The Commodores have been a bit fortunate on the margins. They have converted 3 of 4 fourth down attempts against SEC foes. Meanwhile, their SEC opponents have converted 4 of 8 fourth down attempts. Vanderbilt has also been clutch in the field goal department too, connecting on 8 of 10 attempts in conference play. Their SEC opponents have made just half (5 of 10) of their field goal attempts. And star quarterback Diego Pavia is playing hurt. In the past two games, Pavia has thrown for less than 150 yards in both and averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. Pavia is the engine of this revitalized Vanderbilt team and his diminished mobility is not a good sign against an outstanding South Carolina defensive line. Finally, last week's victory against Auburn has the feeling of a 'Mission Accomplished' game. The victory clinched a bowl bid for Vanderbilt and the Commodores have a bye coming up next week. Don't worry, we haven't abandoned them for good. Once they lose in this spot and give Pavia some time off to heal, I expect we'll be back on them against either LSU or Tennessee over the final two weeks of the regular season. 

Louisiana Tech +10 Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State is not a team I would typically want to stand in front of. After an 0-3 start to the season, the Gamecocks have won five consecutive games by an average margin of nearly thirty points per game. Most of those teams have been bad, with Liberty representing the strongest victim. The good news for Jacksonville State is Conference USA is arguably the weakest FBS conference, so outside of Western Kentucky (or maybe Sam Houston State), they will not face a good team the remainder of the regular season. However, I think Louisiana Tech presents an interesting challenge for the Gamecocks. For the unfamiliar, Jacksonville State is coached by Rich Rodriguez, accidental creator of the zone read option. The Gamecocks play fast and run the damn ball. In their five game winning streak, the Gamecocks are averaging over 350 yards per game on the ground and over seven yards per carry. Louisiana Tech is not good, but the Bulldogs have been able to stop the run. Opponents are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry this season. The Bulldogs have not been able to run the ball themselves (averaging under three yards per carry), but they may be able to turn this into a rock fight. No team has scored more than thirty points against the Bulldogs in regulation, so if the Bulldogs can manufacture some offense and force some turnovers, they could upend the Conference USA race. Finally, while Sonny Cumbie has not had a great deal of success at Louisiana Tech, his teams have kept the losses at home close. The Bulldogs are just 8-7 in Ruston, but five of those seven losses have come by a touchdown or less, and only one came by more than ten points.