The Magnificent Seven: Week V

We had our first losing week. It was bound to happen, but thankfully we avoided a disastrous week. If we can keep the losing weeks to 3-4 instead of 2-5 or 1-6, we should finish in the black. Time to start a new streak. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 16-12

Temple +13 Army

I'm dipping my toe into a weeknight game for the first time this year (Labor Day notwithstanding). If you peruse the AAC standings, you will notice something exciting. Army and Navy are currently in first place with identical 2-0 records. I am hoping they both finish as the top two teams in the American, meet in the AAC Championship Game, and then play again the next week in the regularly scheduled Army/Navy game. We are 25% of the way toward that goal if you are keeping track at home. Overall, Army is 3-0, and while none of their victories have been particularly close, they have yet to beat a quality team. They won their opener against Lehigh of the FCS and their two conference wins have come against FAU and Rice (one combined FBS win between them). Of course, their opponent on Thursday, Temple, can also be classified as a bad team. The Owls won their first game of the season last week against Utah State, and may not be favored in any of their final eight games. But if you squint, you can see some improvement. After a disastrous start, where they scored fourteen combined points against Oklahoma and Navy, the Owls changed quarterbacks, installing Rutgers transfer Evan Simon at quarterback. In the two games since the change, the Owls have scored 65 points, winning one game and covering both. If Simon can continue his solid play, the Owls should be able to score enough points to stay within striking distance of Army. Triple option teams are typically great to back as an underdog and bad to back as a favorite. Their offense chews up the clock, limiting possessions, and preventing favorites from getting margin. Army has been a double digit favorite just five times under Jeff Monken. They have covered three of those games in that limited sample, but they have also lost two outright. The market is sleeping on Temple and the Owls also faced a similar (and better) offense just three weeks ago when they traveled to Annapolis to take on the Midshipmen. Take the Owls to keep this one close and put a scare in the Black Knights. 

Wake Forest -3 Louisiana-Lafayette

I know the Ragin' Cajuns prefer to be called Louisiana, but old habits are hard to break, so they will be known as Louisiana-Lafayette by me in perpetuity (much like the NFL's Colts are consistently referred to as 'Baltimore' by my father). Based on their performance over the past two calendar years, its easy to see why Wake Forest is only laying three points at home to a Sun Belt opponent. On October 29, 2022, Wake Forest was 6-1, ranked tenth in the country, and headed to Louisville for an afternoon game against the Cardinals. Wake led by a point at the half, but self-immolated in the second half, turning the ball over on possession after possession (eight in total) on their way to a crushing defeat. Including the Louisville debacle, Wake Forest is 6-14 in their past twenty regular season games. Two of those victories have come against FCS opponents, one against a bad Vanderbilt team, one against the worst Pitt team of the 21st century, one against Old Dominion, and their 'best' regular season victory came against a Syracuse squad that also wheezed to the finish in 2022. So why on earth should you and your money go anywhere near them? For starters, Wake is probably better than people think this year. They have not beaten an FBS team, but they came very close against an improved Virginia team. More importantly, their offense seems to have rebounded from their horrific performance last season. Wake averaged just north of twenty points per game last season (under twenty against FBS opponents). Once again, they are averaging under twenty points per game against FBS opponents in 2024, but they have only played two such games and one came against Ole Miss. I was skeptical of the Rebels heading into the season, but they appear to be the real deal. And while Wake only scored six points against the Rebels, they turned the ball over on downs twice and threw an interception in Ole Miss territory. Against non-elite defenses, the Demon Deacons should be fine in 2024. They won't reach the heights of 2021, but they should be able to move the ball against a Sun Belt defense that has not really been tested this season. The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-1 with one of those wins coming against an FCS opponent. However, their other victory came against Kennesaw State, the newest (and perhaps worst) member of FBS. They are also coming off an emotional game against in-state rival Tulane last week. Now they hit the road to face a power conference team that is off a bye. The Ragin' Cajuns are a respectable 4-2 ATS as a road underdog under Michael Desormeaux, but they are 0-2 ATS on the road against power conference opponents. You are catching the Demon Deacons at a discount. Back them in this spot. 

Central Michigan -3 San Diego State

Its early, but it seems like there are a lot of bad teams in the Mountain West. New Mexico and Wyoming are winless. Air Force, Hawaii, San Diego State, and Utah State have not beaten an FBS opponent, and the Falcons and Aztecs look like two of the worst offenses in college football. Perhaps that sextet improves once conference play starts, but for now, half the league looks like trash. The Aztecs are currently renovating their program with former Kent State coach Sean Lewis looking to bring an up-tempo offense to a school with a defensive identity. Results, as expected have not been great thus far. It took Lewis some time to build Kent State into a competent MAC team. His first season featured a lot of losses (1-7 MAC record). The Golden Flashes didn't really hit their stride until late in his second season. They were 3-10 through their first thirteen MAC games, but went 16-7 in league play over the remainder of his tenure. Since his departure after the 2022 season, the Flashes have won just a single games and have not beaten an FBS team. He's a good coach, but don't expect results until next year. While San Diego State is off a bye, Central Michigan is off a tight victory against Ball State in their league opener. The win moved the Chippewas to 2-2. While that record may not seem impressive on the surface, it is when you consider they have a turnover margin of -7 and have forced just a single turnover on the season. Some regression (or progression in terms of forcing them) in that department will do wonders for Central Michigan's record. That turnover margin is unsustainable and is depressing this spread. Central Michigan should be laying more than a field goal, so take the Chippewas to cover this small number against a team that has trouble scoring. And if you're curious, yes, Lewis did face Central Michigan once while he was at Kent State. The Golden Flashes were a slight road underdog and lost by 34. 

Louisiana-Monroe +7 Troy

I don't know if you know this, but Jon Sumrall does not coach Troy any more. After winning two Sun Belt titles in two seasons at Troy, Sumrall took the Tulane job. Maybe the betting market has not caught on to that fact yet. Otherwise, this spread does not make sense to me. Outside of their victory against Florida A&M last week, Troy has done nothing to warrant laying nearly a touchdown in a conference game. The Trojans have already lost to a team that has been bad for multiple seasons, but looks to be improved under a first year head coach, when they dropped their opener to Nevada. Louisiana-Monroe has won just ten games the past four seasons, but an underrated blogger opined that last season they were one of the better teams to go winless in conference play. Improvement was possible, and perhaps inevitable, and last week's game against Texas notwithstanding, they have looked better against teams in their own weight class. Troy's days of running the Sun Belt are over (at least for now), but it seems the betting market has not wised up to that yet. Take the Warhawks and don't be shocked if they pull off the outright upset.  

Charlotte +6.5 Rice

Someone has to explain to me what the betting market sees in Rice? The Owls have been favored in two of their three games against FBS competition this season. They are 0-2 ATS and straight up in those games, losing to Sam Houston and regular Houston by a combined 46 points. And here they are again, laying nearly a touchdown. Granted, Charlotte has not shown much this season, but are you really prepared to lay your hard earned money on Rice? The Owls have been a poor favorite for the duration of head coach Mike Bloomgren's tenure. They are 2-8 ATS as a home favorite, with seven outright losses. They have not fared much better in road trips as a favorite either, posting a 2-4 ATS mark with three outright losses. For those scoring at home, the Owls are 4-12 ATS as a favorite, with ten outright losses! That kind of performance will usually get you fired and probably will if it continues. As I mentioned earlier, Charlotte has not shown much this season, but at least the 49ers have had the wherewithal to lose to good (Indiana and James Madison) or at least power conference (North Carolina) teams. Plus, Charlotte at least been competitive in the road underdog role under head coach Biff Poggi. They are 7-2 ATS as a road dog. They also won in their only previous trip to Rice, dominating the Owls as a fifteen point underdog two years ago. In this battle of bad teams, take the one getting nearly a touchdown. 

Illinois +17.5 Penn State

Illinois is 4-0 and the Illini have already sprung two upsets, beating Kansas in Champaign and upsetting Nebraska in Lincoln last Friday night. A win in State College would reset the Big 10 race significantly and potentially rocket Illinois into the AP top ten for the first time since they won the Big 10 in 2001. That probably won't happen on Saturday, but a guy can dream, can't he? At worst, the Illini will represent by far the stiffest test Penn State has faced thus far. The Nittany Lions are fresh off a beating of Kent State, pounding the Golden Flashes 56-0. I'll point out two weeks ago, the Golden Flashes allowed 71 points to Tennessee, so I don't know that there is a whole lot to be learned from that data point other than Penn State good and Kent State bad. Penn State's passing offense has been dominant through their first three games, averaging over twelve yards per throw. The Illini pass defense has allowed under six yards per throw in their four games, although Nebraska did make some plays against that secondary last week. Since returning to the Big 10 in 2021, Illinois head coach Bret Bielema has performed well in the underdog role. His teams are 10-3 ATS as a road underdog, including a 6-1 ATS record as a double digit road underdog. Give me the Illini on Saturday night, although I fully expect James Franklin to try and punch one in late to cover this number when he could just take a knee or two. It would not be the first time. 

Washington State +7.5 Boise State

For the second year in a row, Washington State is off to a blistering start. The Cougars opened 2023 with four consecutive wins (two over ranked teams), rose to number thirteen in the AP Poll, and then proceeded to lose seven of their last eight games. The good news for the Cougars is that in 2024, there are only Mountain West teams (some of them quite bad) and Oregon State left on the schedule, so a similar collapse is unlikely. After facing San Jose State in a thriller last week, they continue their Mountain West sojourn with a trip to Boise State. The Broncos were the consensus favorite to win the Mountain West before the season started, but these are not your older brother's mid-major powerhouse. Since Chris Petersen left for Washington following the 2013 season, Boise State is 5-8 both straight up and ATS against power conference opponents in the regular season. Under Petersen (2006-2013), they were 6-3 straight up and ATS in regular season games versus power conference opponents. I know Washington State is technically no longer a power conference team as the Pac-12 has lost most of its major brands, but they still have that power conference residue (and have beaten two power conference teams this season). They also have an exciting playmaker taking snaps. John Mateer is averaging nearly 300 yards passing per game and over 100 yards per game on the ground. The dual threat quarterback should be able to keep Washington State in this game against a porous Bronco defense. The Broncos have allowed 45 and 37 points to the two FBS teams they have faced. I expect Washington State to score at least thirty and keep this margin within a touchdown. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IV

As I mentioned last week, the margins in gambling are thin. I lost two bets by one point, one by two points, and won a bet by a half point. We were somehow able to grind out another winning week, which we are always thankful for. We'll try to make it an unprecedented four winning weeks in a row. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 13-8

James Madison +10.5 North Carolina

After losing Drake Maye to the riches of the NFL and starting quarterback Max Johnson to an injury in their opener, North Carolina is quietly 3-0. Its their fourth 3-0 start in six seasons under the second Mack Brown regime. The Tar Heels will look to close out their non-conference slate with a perfect 4-0 mark before opening ACC play next week at Duke. Their opponent, James Madison, is a bit of an unknown. After dominating the Sun Belt in their first two seasons as an FBS program, their head coach took the Indiana job and their quarterback headed west to Texas State. The Dukes hired Bob Chesney from Holy Cross as their new head coach and have opened 2-0, but their most recent game was a bit disconcerting, at least on offense. The Dukes beat Gardner-Webb of the FCS, but only managed thirteen points in a tight win. Gardner-Webb has come close to knocking off two FBS teams, nearly taking out Charlotte last week as well, but losing thanks to a failed two-point conversion. James Madison did not play well offensively in their game with the Runnin' Bulldogs, but they left a few points on the field, missing a field goal and turning the ball over on downs twice. Their offense may be able to get back on track against a North Carolina team that doesn't appear to have fixed the defensive issues that have plagued them throughout Mack Brown's second tenure. The Tar Heels and Dukes have played one common opponent this season, Charlotte. The 49ers could not move the ball against James Madison, scoring just seven points while averaging under four and half yards per play. Against North Carolina, they scored only twenty points, but averaged nearly ten yards per pass. The 49ers scored two touchdowns, but had first and goal inside the North Carolina ten on two other occasions. They came away with just two field goals on those drives. With a week off to prepare, I think James Madison will be able to move the ball against North Carolina. Plus, despite playing in the Sun Belt and moving up from FCS just two seasons ago, I think James Madison has the stronger defense. Take the Dukes and the double digits. 

Kansas +2.5 West Virginia

The Jayhawks and Mountaineers come into this game with identical 1-2 records. The loser, will obviously fall to 1-3 and into a sort of existential dread. The winner, will ne just 2-2, but will be unbeaten in Big 12 play and still have an outside shot at a College Football Playoff bid. Kansas has dropped two games despite arguably outplaying both Illinois and UNLV. The Jayhawks outgained the Illini and the Rebels by more than a yard per play, but committed six total turnovers in both games (-5 margin). The Illini returned an interception for a touchdown late in the second quarter and the Rebels used a late second quarter interception to run the worst two-minute drill of all time (that still somehow resulted in a touchdown). The Rebels also had one of the most fortuitous bounces on their game-winning touchdown drive. Suffice to say, Kansas has been a bit unlucky thus far in 2024. West Virginia was also a bit unlucky in that they blew a ten-point fourth quarter lead last week against archrival Pitt, but their defense has been pretty bad through three games. The Mountaineers have allowed nearly ten yards per pass on the season, and remember one of those data points includes Albany from the FCS. Offensively, the Mountaineers rely on their ground game, but Kansas has played the run well, allowing just over three yards per carry. I think you are getting the Jayhawks at a discount. ESPN's FPI metric rated them as the best team in the Big 12 before the season started (West Virginia was ninth by the same metric). If the Jayhawks can avoid the turnover issues that have plagued them the past two games, they are primed to pull the upset in Morgantown. 

Southern Miss +6 Jacksonville St

One season after beginning their FBS life with a 9-4 campaign, the Gamecocks from Jacksonville State are floundering and in danger of matching last year's loss total less than a month into the season. What sort of clairvoyant could have seen this regression coming? Despite their head coach's reputation as an offensive innovator, last season's Gamecock team won with defense. They created havoc and lived in opposing backfields, generating 38 sacks on the year. This year's team has just five sacks, with all of them coming last week against Eastern Michigan. Perhaps their pass rush is rounding into form. Or maybe Eastern Michigan's offensive line is just that bad. They did allow seven sacks to Washington the previous week, so I'll let you infer from that what you will. Anyway, the Gamecocks have been much worse on defense, and their offense has been about the same. Yet, somehow, this winless team is laying nearly a touchdown against a team from a better conference. Will Hall is working very on getting fired as head coach of the Eagles, posting a 14-26 record in just over three seasons in Hattiesburg. The Eagles can at least blame a tough schedule for their rough start, losing to a power conference team on the road (Kentucky) and an up and comer from the AAC (South Florida). There is no loss to Eastern Michigan (no offense to Chris Creighton and company) or a home blowout to Coastal Carolina on this ledger. That's not to say things won't devolve as the Eagles get into Sun Belt play, but right now, I think the spread on this game should be close to even on a neutral field. I'll make a principled stand and back Southern Miss in a battle of two teams headed for disappointing seasons. 

Navy +10 Memphis

At the quarter poll of their 2024 campaign, the question remains, how good is Memphis? The Tigers were the consensus top team in the AAC in the preseason, and had they started out 3-0 with this schedule in 2023, would be deserving of a little number beside their name in the AP Poll. Troy and Florida State finished a combined 22-2 in the regular season last year and each won their respective conference titles (Sun Belt and ACC), but the Trojans and Seminoles have fallen on hard times. Troy is 0-3, having lost to these Tigers as well as Iowa and Nevada, while Florida State is also famously winless. Give the Tigers credit for winning the games on their schedule, but I thinks its fair to say Navy is the best team they will have faced thus far. The Midshipmen are also undefeated, but have not beaten anyone of note (Bucknell and Temple). However, they are averaging over 40 points per game in that small sample against bad teams after averaging just under 18 points per game last season. One reason to believe this may be legitimate progress and not just stat-padding is the presence of offensive coordinator Drew Cronic. Cronic is the former head coach at Mercer (and also Reinhardt and Lenoir-Rhyne). He guided the Bears to their first playoff appearance in school history last year and has posted just one losing season in eight years as a head coach. Cronic has installed a hybrid Wing T offense in Annapolis and it appears to be working thus far. The Midshipmen have had a week off to prepare for Memphis, the Tigers are probably overvalued by the market after their unbeaten start, and Navy has covered three of the four games at home in this series since joining the AAC in 2015. Take the Midshipmen to cover and potentially shake up the AAC race. 

Vanderbilt +20 Missouri

One of my hottest takes heading into the season was that Vanderbilt would compete for a bowl bid. With their non-conference schedule and New Mexico State transplants, I thought they had a decent chance at heading into their regular season finale against Tennessee with either five or six wins. Their upset win against Virginia Tech did nothing to diminish my enthusiasm. And then, they lost at Georgia State. The Commodores dilly dallied the whole game and trailed the Panthers by double digits late in the fourth quarter before staging a rally to take the lead only to be undone by a late Georgia State touchdown. The loss probably extinguishes Vandy's bowl prospects, but it doesn't change the fact that this team can still be a thorn in the side of their eight SEC opponents. The Commodores do not technically run the triple option, but in spirit, this is a service academy. In their first three games, the Commodores have run the ball nearly twice as often as they have thrown it, and that spread was even more pronounced before they had to pass the entire fourth quarter last week against Georgia State. In their first two games, the Commodores ran the ball more than 70% of the time. A running underdog is the type of team you want to back when they are catching a lot of points. As we saw last week, when Missouri faced another triple option emeritus team in Boston College. The Tigers and Eagles combined for just nineteen total drives, and despite controlling the game from the beginning of the second quarter on, Missouri was never able to pull away and cover the three-score spread. I expect something similar to happen here. Barring some fantastic turnover luck, Vanderbilt does not have the firepower to win this game outright. However, they should be able to limit the possessions, score between thirteen and seventeen points, and cover this number. 

TCU -3 SMU

The Iron Skillet rivalry has been dominated by TCU since SMU came back from the dead. The teams have played 33 times since 1989 and TCU is 25-8 against the Mustangs in that span. I'll point out SMU has won two of the past four games in this series, but their head coach in those games was Sonny Dykes (current TCU head coach). In fact, teams coached by Dykes are 4-1 in this rivalry (2-1 at SMU and 2-0 at TCU). Both teams enter this game off disappointing defeats. SMU is off a bye, but in their most recent game, they lost at home to BYU, managing just fifteen points against the Cougars. TCU lost this past Saturday, blowing a 21-point second half lead to UCF in their Big 12 opener. Despite the loss, TCU played well offensively, scoring 34 points (tied for the fewest they have scored all season). That side of the ball is where SMU has struggled this season. After averaging over 35 points per game against FBS opponents last season, SMU has managed just 44 total points against Nevada and BYU. They did throttle Houston Baptist, but I think we can dismiss that result. In the process, they have also benched their starting quarterback and turned things over to Kevin Jennings. Jennings started for the Mustangs in their AAC Championship Game victory last season after Preston Stone was injured in the regular season finale, but he also started the Fenway Bowl where the Mustangs managed just fourteen points against a porous Boston College defense. Results have been mixed. And I don't think you can count on the Mustangs putting up a lot of point this week. Something is off with their offense (perhaps Stone is not fully recovered from his leg injury) and the Mustangs have lost six consecutive games to power conference opponents. In fact, their last two victories against power conference opponents came against TCU in 2019 and 2021 when, as I previously mentioned, Sonny Dykes was the coach. Dykes finished 2-2 against power conference opponents in his SMU career. As I also mentioned, current head coach Rhett Lashlee is 0-6 against power conference foes and overall SMU has not been great when stepping up in class. They went nine years, and seventeen games, between power conference victories (beat Washington State in 2010) before beating TCU in 2019. The majority of those seventeen games came against teams from Texas (Baylor, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech). SMU does not have a great track record in this rivalry, and their greatest success in it came under the tutelage of the coach on the other sideline. TCU does not have to blow SMU out to cover this number. Take the Horned Frogs to notch another victory in this series and keep the skillet for another year. 

Oklahoma +7 Tennessee

I hate standing in front of freight trains. I don't like to bet against elite teams when they are laying points, so I may end up regretting this one very early Saturday night, but allow me to lay out the reasons why I think you should back Oklahoma. What do we really know so far about Tennessee? The Vols have been dominant in their first three games, outscoring their opponents by an absurd 191-13 margin. But who have they beaten? An FCS team (Chattanooga), a very bad FBS team (Kent State), and an ACC team that was losing at the half to Louisiana Tech at home (NC State). Maybe the Wolfpack get their act together and become a contender in the ACC, but thus far their best win is against a probable 7-5 ACC team. Dominating inferior opponents can tell us a lot about a team, but lets not hang any banners in Knoxville just yet. This road trip to Norman will mark quarterback Nico Iamaleava's first ever road start. He started the neutral site game against NC State and the bowl game against Iowa last season, but this will be the most adversity he has faced in his young career. Oklahoma is also rarely an underdog in Norman. The last time was 2016 against Ohio State. The Buckeyes did dominate that game, but that was an experienced team that would go on to make the four-team College Football Playoff. Finally, do you know what Tennessee's record is under Josh Heupel in SEC road games? 5-7, with three of the victories coming against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Two years ago, the Vols blasted an LSU team that would eventually win the SEC West, but that has been more the exception than the rule whenever they leave the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium. Oklahoma has not looked good on offense in their first three games, but the defense is very good and will present the stiffest test Tennessee has faced this far. I don't know if Oklahoma has the firepower to win the game outright, but this should be more of a low-scoring defensive affair, reminiscent of SEC games of a decade or so ago. Take the Sooners catching points at home. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week III

Two winning weeks in a row. Despite the 4-3 record, there were quite a few stinkers. I think every underdog I backed that lost ended up losing by about sixty points. But this is a tough industry, so we'll take the winning record, stay humble, and try to make it three in a row this week. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 9-5

Cincinnati -2.5 Miami (Ohio)

Midway through the third quarter last week, Cincinnati fans were feeling good. Leading 27-6, they were about to knock off their former Big East rival Pitt for the second straight year and move to 2-0 in their second season under Scott Satterfield. From that point forward, the Bearcats were outscored 22-0 and left with a bitter loss to the Panthers. Having a game flipped from a sure win to a loss in a sport where you only get twelves games is massive. The Bearcats probably weren't real College Football Playoff contenders, but the difference between a 7-5 and 6-6 regular season is huge for morale and the general vibes of the program. If the Bearcats can rebound from that defeat, they have a chance to bank some wins before the schedule toughens. After Miami, they open Big 12 play with Houston and Texas Tech, two teams that have not acquitted themselves well in the early going. A 4-1 start before the meat of league play would cool Satterfield's seat considerably. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Bearcats did lose to Miami last season, their first loss in the series since 2005! Since Cincinnati graduated to the Big 12 last season, this is somewhat of a unique evet. It marks just the 22nd time a MAC school has hosted a power conference opponent in the College Football Playoff era (since 2014). How have those MAC teams fared in the previous 21 instances? Not great. MAC teams are just 4-17 straight up and 7-13-1 ATS. If we remove all the expected blowouts and focus only on situations where the MAC team was either favored or catching less than a touchdown, the numbers don't look any better. MAC teams are 3-7 both straight up and ATS in those expected close games. Ohio did beat Iowa State last season, which may be fresh in the minds of many gamblers, but that has been more the exception than the rule. In addition, while Miami is 5-4 ATS against Cincinnati under head coach Chuck Martin, all of those covers have been when the Redhawks were large underdogs (5-2 ATS when catching double digits). Cincinnati is out for revenge after last year's loss to the Redhawks derailed a promising 2-0 start. Back the Bearcats laying this small number. 

Central Michigan +20 Illinois

This is a prime letdown spot for the Illini after they upset a ranked Kansas team last week. The Illini played well defensively, holding the explosive Kansas offense to under five yards per play. Of course, the Illini did not do much on offense, scoring just one offensive touchdown against the Jayhawks. The going should be easier against a Central Michigan outfit that just allowed 52 points to Florida International. Of course, the Chippewas also turned the ball over six times, setting the Panthers up with plenty of short fields. Turnovers have a huge impact on an individual game, but they are hard to predict. It is unlikely Central Michigan commits another half dozen this week (if they do, I can assure they will not cover). As I mentioned in the opening sentence, this is a bad spot for Illinois. The Illini are off a big win and open conference play next week at Nebraska. Does a team that just lost by five touchdowns have their full attention? I don't think they do. Plus, since Bret Bielema returned to the Big 10, he has been great as an underdog, but awful as a favorite. In the regular season against FBS teams, Bielema's Illini are 4-10 ATS as a favorite and 13-7 ATS as an underdog. They have been particularly bad as a home favorite, posting a 2-10 ATS record. They have not been good against Group of Five opponents either. They are 1-4 ATS against the lower level of FBS, dropping a game to UTSA in 2021, and nearly losing to both Toledo and Florida Atlantic last season. Central Michigan is not as bad as they showed last week and will keep this one closer than three touchdowns. 

Boston College +16.5 Missouri

Most Missouri fans probably didn't think their season really started until the first weekend in October when they travel to Texas A&M. But thanks to the struggles of the defending ACC champs in Tallahassee, they get an early opportunity to 'show me' they are for real. The Tigers have not allowed a point through their first two games, shutting out Murray State and Buffalo. While the defense has been fantastic, the offense has been a bit underwhelming despite scoring 89 points. Quarterback Brady Cook has averaged under seven yards per pass (he averaged nine last season) and thrown just a single touchdown. The running game has picked up the slack, averaging over five and a half yards per carry. Still, the passing attack, particularly against such a light early schedule, has to at least be a minor concern. Boston College has also played well defensively, pitching a shutout of their own last week against Duquesne in a potential flat spot after beating Florida State in their opener. While the Seminoles are clearly better than the duo Missouri has played thus far, its an open question how good they are. There was some legitimate skepticism about the prospects of Boston College heading into the season as Jeff Hafley resigned to take an NFL assistant coaching position and the Eagles hired Bill O'Brien. O'Brien was mostly remembered as the head coach of the Houston Texas, but he also took on the unenviable task of replacing Joe Paterno at Penn State under less than ideal circumstances. Two games into his tenure at BC, no final verdict came be rendered, but its been a good start. Boston College was expected to finish in the lower reaches of the ACC, and their over/under win total was just 4.5. O'Brien has adapted his offense to the personnel at hand, running what is (in spirit) a triple option offense. The Eagles have run the ball 77% of the time through two games and that is the type of team you want to back when they are catching a lot of points. The clock should be running and possessions will be at a premium in this game. Plus, Missouri is in an unusual spot in this game. This is their largest point spread against a power conference opponent under Eli Drinkwitz. They have laid double digits five previous times under Drinkwitz against power conference foes (with four of those coming against Vanderbilt). They are 2-3 ATS in those games. That record is hardly reason to back Boston College, but shows that the Tigers have only been massive favorites against power conference opponents when facing truly awful teams (e.g. Vanderbilt). Take the Eagles to keep this one close. 

Pittsburgh +2.5 West Virginia

Maybe my preseason expectations are at play here (I am heavily invested in Pitt winning more than 5.5 games), but what has West Virginia done to warrant being favored in this spot? With a rowdy home crowd and visions of revenge, they generated less than four yards per play against Penn State. In Penn State's only other data point, they allowed a MAC school to score 24 points on them in one half at Happy Valley. Meanwhile, Pitt has shown a greta deal of offensive improvement, perhaps much to head coach Pat Narduzzi's chagrin. Narduzzi belongs in the NFL in the 1970s, when the forward pass and an up-tempo offense were an affront to wholesome American values. For the time being at least, Narduzzi has allowed new offensive coordinate Kade Bell to throw the ball and play faster than usual. The Panthers also have one of the more unsung versatile players in college football. Western Carolina transfer (he followed Bell, his offensive coordinator up to FBS) running back Desmond Reid topped 100 yards receiving and rushing last week against Cincinnati and also returned a punt for a score against Kent State. I'm glad these two teams are playing again after a decade long break. The Backyard Brawl is one of college football's best rivalries and I'm glad to be around to witness its renewal. Pitt is the better team, is playing at home, and catching points. With that trifecta, you have to back the Panthers. 

Tulane +14 Oklahoma

I have seen enough of Oklahoma through two games to not trust them laying a big number. The team looked fine on the scoreboard against Temple, amassing 51 points in an easy victory. But quarterback Jackson Arnold averaged under six yards per pass against the Owls and the Sooners as a whole generated under 400 yards of total offense. Then against Houston, the Sooners were outgained by nearly a full yard per play. The Sooners may well have a solid season in their first as an SEC school, but it will probably come courtesy of their defense. I think the offense has major problems as evidenced by their 108th national ranking in total offense. Need I remind you the Sooners have played a team that may finish 0-12 (Temple) and perhaps the worst power conference team in the nation (Houston). They have also benefited from a +7 turnover margin in those two games. That being said, turnovers would be the only reason I would be hesitant to back Tulane. The Green Wave are led by a redshirt freshman quarterback, Darian Mensah, who will be playing his first road game in a very tough environment. Despite solid numbers through two games, Mensah did turn the ball over twice in their loss last week to Kansas State, including a lost fumble that was returned for a touchdown when he tried to do too much on a play where he should have just taken the sack. Still, the Green Wave probably outplayed a power conference opponent (albeit at home) and have a second shot at getting a statement victory to put themselves in the discussion for the College Football Playoff. Head coach Jon Sumrall has been fantastic as a road underdog, posting a 5-1 ATS record in the role at his previous head coaching stop (Troy). An inexperience quarterback in Norman scares me, but this Oklahoma team does not have the offense to cover this number without a heaping helping of turnovers. 

East Carolina +2.5 Appalachian State

East Carolina has one of the weirder statistical profiles in the country. The Pirates are 2-0 (with one of the victories coming on the road) despite a turnover margin of -6. If the Pirates end the regular season with a margin of -36, they will probably not finish 12-0. Quarterback Jake Garcia has thrown seven interceptions despite a solid completion percentage (nearly 65%). I would bank on his interception percentage regressing toward a more normal rate over the rest of the season. This is a big game for both schools with East Carolina looking to exceed last season's win total and Appalachian State looking to get last week's bad taste out of their mouths. The Mountaineers were pummeled in Death Valley 66-20 and Clemson probably could have scored 100 if they wanted to. Through two games, the Mountaineers have continued a troubling trend of not being able to stop the run. Last season opponents averaged nearly five yards per carry against them and while their performance against Clemson can be excused somewhat, East Tennessee State also gashed them on the ground in the opener. Last season, an East Carolina team with no offensive firepower (averaged under fifteen points per game against FBS teams) scored 28 on the Mountaineers in Boone. App has their conference opener a mere five days after this game against South Alabama. Their College Football Playoff hopes were basically dashed after last week's putrid showing. I expect them to focus more on the Sun Belt title than beating an in-state rival that is not really a rival. These teams have only played twice since App made the jump to FBS and have only played four times overall since 1980. The Mountaineers are also 4-11 ATS as a road favorite under Shawn Clark, losing eight of those games outright. Take the Pirates to pull of the minor upset. 

San Diego State +19 California

San Diego State has played one half of quality football thus far in 2024. They were shutout at home last week by Oregon State, gaining just 179 total yards. The week before, they trailed Texas A&M Commerce 6-3 at the half before finding their groove in the third quarter. They put up 42 points in the second half against a bad FCS team, but 14 of those points came courtesy of defensive scores. Now the Aztecs travel to the liberal bastion of Berkeley to take on a Cal team coming off one of the bigger wins of the Justin Wilcox era. The Bears won at Auburn last week as double digit underdogs, holding the Tigers to fourteen points and coaxing five turnovers out of them. On paper this is a mismatch, but let me give the reasons for backing this ugly dog. For starters, this is a major sandwich spot for Cal. The Bears beat Auburn last week and play their first ACC conference game next week at Florida State. Do the Aztecs have Cal's full attention? Maybe not. Secondly, Cal has posted a +7 turnover margin through their first two games. With that exceptional turnover margin, they have scored 52 total points. For all the (relative) success Cal has had under Justin Wilcox, scoring points has not been part of the equation. In 71 regular season games against FBS opponents, Cal has scored 30 or more points 18 times. They did do it six times in eleven games last season, but early returns have them back as a defense first team this year. Befitting a team that has trouble scoring, the Bears have also never covered a game as a double digit favorite under Wilcox, posting an 0-5-1 ATS record in the role. I know its scary to back a team that got shutout last week, but if the Aztecs can find a way to kick two field goals (or get three safeties), they should be able to cover this number. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week II

For the first time in years, we did not start the year in the hole. We'll try to grind out another winning week for you. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 5-2

Army +4 Florida Atlantic

I'm not sure why this number keep climbing. It opened with Florida Atlantic a small favorite and has now eclipsed a field goal. Perhaps folks only saw the final score of Florida Atlantic's opener, a 16-10 loss at Michigan State and assumed the Owls played well. As someone who watched the entire game, I can assure you, they did not. The Spartans only managed 16 points, but they were in position to score on several occasions. They committed three turnovers inside the Florida Atlantic red zone (a fumble, a pick, and a turnover on downs). Offensively the Owls struggled to move the ball in the passing game. Quarterback Cam Fancher, a Marshall transfer completed less than half his passes and averaged under five yards per throw. Fancher did have some nice runs, but overall he rushed for just 67 yards on 25 carries. His best plays were late slides where he drew some penalties on Michigan State defenders. That is probably not a winning long term strategy. Despite that poor performance, the Owls are a solid favorite against an unfamiliar service academy. The Owls have never faced Army and are 1-3 (both straight up and ATS) in a small sample against the other FBS service academies (Air Force and Navy). After a brief flirtation with the shotgun option, Army is back to being a true triple option team (with a little variation). That is what they should always be. Under Jeff Monken, the Black Knights are 10-7-2 ATS as a road underdog against non-power conference opponents. Meanwhile Tom Herman has burned up cash as a home favorite, posting a 10-20-2 ATS record in the role at three schools (Houston, Texas, and Florida Atlantic). In gambling, nothing is guaranteed, but this is the most confident I have been in a pick in a long time. 

UTSA +1 Texas State

After bad decade as an FBS team, Texas State enjoyed success under first year head coach GJ Kinne in 2023. The Bobcats won seven regular season games, qualified for their first bowl game, and dominated Rice in the First Responder Bowl. One season in, everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid. The Bobcats were the consensus (and near unanimous) favorite to win the Sun Belt West heading into the season. Their dress rehearsal against FCS Lamar was decent. Texas State led 18-0 at the half and were up double digits heading into the fourth quarter, but got a little bit of a scare in winning by just a touchdown. I wouldn't necessarily downgrade the Bobcats after that performance, but I also don't think they should be a favorite against the preeminent non-power program in the state of Texas. The Roadrunners began the Jeff Traylor era by winning in San Marcos during the pandemic impacted 2020 season. Including that game, UTSA is 12-2 straight up and 10-4 ATS against Group of Five teams from the state of Texas under Traylor. Like Texas State, the Roadrunners built a big lead in their opener, but got a bit of a second half scare before pulling away to beat Kennesaw State by twelve. UTSA is one of the best teams in the AAC and should not be catching points against a Sun Belt team with a lot of hype, but few good wins. The Bobcats have won eight regular season games under Kinne. Two of those victories have come against FCS opponents and the other six have all come against teams that failed to finish better than 6-6 in the regular season. The market is wrong about Texas State. Take the Roadrunners to zip past the Bobcats. 

Ohio +2.5 South Alabama

You shouldn't overreact to one game, but as someone holding a South Alabama over 6.5 wins ticket, I was nonplussed by their showing in the season opener. The Jaguars, who finished with the third best per play conference defense in the Sun Belt last season, allowed 52 points, 550 yards, and over seven yards per play to North Texas. I will point out the Jaguars also racked up nearly 600 yards of offense and averaged north of seven yards per play as well. However, a double digit home loss as a near touchdown favorite does not inspire a great deal of confidence moving forward. And forward we move, as the Jaguars head to Athens to take on the Ohio Bobcats. Ohio had a decent showing on the road against a power conference opponent, losing by 16 in the former Carrier Dome to Syracuse. The Bobcats struggled to contain the Orange, but moved the ball pretty well. Now the Bobcats come home, where they have been fantastic under Tim Albin. Longtime head coach Frank Solich retired suddenly in the summer of 2021 and Ohio underachieved, finishing 3-9 (1-5 at home) in Albin's first season. However, Albin has adjusted to the job the past two seasons, posting ten win campaigns in both 2022 and 2023, with just one home loss (to the eventual MAC champ) in that span. Under Albin, the Bobcats are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog with five outright wins. Contrast that with South Alabama head coach Major Applewhite. Applewhite's teams are 3-6 ATS as road favorites and until they prove that defensive performance was an aberration, should not be laying points on the road. 

Sam Houston State +22 UCF

One week into their second season as an FBS program, Sam Houston seems like they may have found a quarterback. JUCO transfer Hunter Watson looked the part in the opener, averaging over eight yards per pass and tossing two touchdowns. The Bearkats scored 34 points, which is tied for their second highest point total in thirteen games at the FBS level. A competent pass offense was the missing ingredient last season. The Bearkats averaged just twenty points per game in 2023. Despite their pedestrian offense, they still managed to cover games, posting a 6-3 ATS mark as an underdog. I expect that trend to continue this week as the market does not seem to realize how improved the Bearkats are offensively. They probably don't have enough firepower to win in Orlando, but I expect them to keep this one close. UCF has the name and coach recognition, although I would argue KC Keeler has a better coaching resume than Guz Malzahn. The Knights have not done well as a favorite (home or away) under Malzahn. Against FBS opponents, they are 8-16-1 ATS as a favorite (5-9-1 as a home favorite) and an even more disconcerting 4-7-1 as a double digit favorite (3-5-1 at home). This is also a bit of a lookahead spot as they open Big 12 play at TCU next week. I thought Sam Houston might be better this season and invested in an over play on 4.5 wins. I feel great about that bet at the moment, and expect another solid data point this week. 

Tulsa +7.5 Arkansas State

Looking to build off their first bowl appearance since 2019, Arkansas State nearly derailed their season against Central Arkansas of the FCS. The Bears are a decent FCS team, but they scored 31 points and averaged over seven yards per play against the Arkansas State defense. Defense has been an issue for the Red Wolves since the pandemic season. They finished second to last in per play defense in the Sun Belt in 2020, last in 2021, and eleventh (of fourteen teams) in both 2022 and 2023. That problem does not appear to be solved. And if a team can't play defense, you don't want to lay numbers with them. Tulsa may end up having a down year, but they did not struggle to put away an FCS team in their opener. Granted, Northwestern State is of a lower quality than Central Arkansas, but Tulsa put them away early and did not play with their food. Most troubling for Arkansas State fans is that the Golden Hurricane averaged nearly eight yards per rush in their opener. Meanwhile, Arkansas State allowed over seven yards per rush to Central Arkansas. That does not seem like a winning combination. I won't go as far as saying Tulsa should be favored, but I will point out Tulsa plays in the stronger league and obviously looked better in their first game. This is just the fourth time Arkansas State has been a home favorite against an FBS team under Butch Jones. This spread should be less than a field goal, so catching north of a touchdown is a gift from the gambling gods. 

Kennesaw State +15 Louisiana-Lafayette

The Owls from Kennesaw, Georgia had a rough start to their FBS lives, especially on defense. The Owls allowed UTSA to score touchdowns on their first three drives and fell behind 21-3 early in the second quarter. But from that point forward, they looked like a competent Group of Five team. They held the Roadrunners scoreless for their final three drives of the first half thanks to a fumble and a missed field goal, but really got their bearings in the second half, forcing four consecutive punts before getting the ball back in the fourth quarter down just five. A subsequent fumble gave the Roadrunners a short field where they eventually put the game away. After a tough road trip to the Alamodome, the Owls come back to Georgia for their first home game as an FBS program. They host a Ragin' Cajuns team that has struggled in the role of road favorite under third year head coach Michael Desormeaux (yes, I had to look up the spelling). Overall, Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-8 in true road games under Desormeaux and just 1-5 ATS as a road favorite with five outright losses, including two as a double digit favorite. We didn't learn a lot from the Cajuns first game as they dominated a mid-FCS team, beating Grambling 40-10. Meanwhile, Kennesaw State played well against one of the better Group of Five teams. I expected this spread to be closer to ten points and since it is currently north of two touchdowns, for the second weekend in a row, I'll take the Owls to cover a big number. 

San Jose State +5 Air Force

I expected a big drop off in 2024 from San Jose State. Last season, the Spartans rallied after a 1-5 start, rattling off six consecutive victories and nearly making the Mountain West Championship Game. They lost their coach and veteran quarterback and I figured there would be some growing pains. Its early, but the Spartans looked good against a quality FCS opponent in their opener. New quarterback Emmett Brown (who better go by 'Doc') threw for nearly 300 yards and the Spartans scored 42 points against Sacramento State (who beat Stanford last year by the way). Meanwhile, Air Force looked like the team dealing with growing pains. The Falcons also faced an FCS opponent (Merrimack), but they managed just 21 points and averaged only three yards per carry. For the uninitiated, Air Force typically dominates in the run game, having averaged over five yards per rush in each of the past five seasons. The Falcons did lose a lot from last year's team, so some regression was to be expected. As I mentioned previously, I don't like to overreact to one game, but Air Force's performance was troubling. Couple that poor offensive showing with the likely familiarity of San Jose State's new head coach (Ken Niumatalolo) with Air Force (former Navy head coach) and it makes me think the Falcons will have a lot of trouble moving the ball. I backed way too many underdogs this week, so some of them are bound to bust, but I have to take the Spartans catching nearly a touchdown.