The Magnificent Seven: Week I

We finally made it through the longest offseason in sports. The season technically kicked off on Saturday with some Week Zero action (queue up Rocky Road to Dublin), but it starts in earnest on Thursday and continues through Monday. Every week of the regular season and again during Championship Weekend and Bowl Season, we'll pick seven games against the spread and give you a little preview of the weekend to come. And if you are so inclined, you can make a wager or two. Odds are courtesy of Fan Duel in case they want to sponsor this blog. These lines have been on the board all summer, so this post went up on Sunday. During the season, look for it on either Thursday or Friday. Thanks for reading.  

Akron +7.5 Wyoming

This is definitely not the biggest game of Week One, but all tickets cash the same regardless of the teams involved. Both the Zips and the Cowboys suffered losing campaigns in 2024. For Akron, it marked their seventh consecutive losing season (third straight under head coach Joe Moorhead), but it was Wyoming's first in a non-Covid year since 2015! The Cowboys attempted to continue the Craig Bohl era by hiring his defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel as head coach, but fell to 3-9 in his first season in charge. Its hard to win at Wyoming. The area is sparsely populated with little access to fertile recruiting grounds and in this new era of college football, their NIL coffers are not overwhelming. The Cowboys have had two successful head coaches in the past 35 years: Joe Tiller (RIP) and the aforementioned Bohl. Early returns do not signal that Sawvel will become the third. In fact, this is the first time under Sawvel that the Cowboys will be favored against an FBS opponent. They were favored in their home opener against Idaho of the FCS last season, but fell to the Vandals en route to a 1-7 start. Wyoming had real issues scoring last season, which is not something you want for a team laying a touchdown on the road. The Cowboys were held below twenty points eight times last season and if we remove their 49-point outburst against one of the worst defenses in FBS (New Mexico), they averaged under seventeen points per game. So the Cowboys are in an unfamiliar role and struggled mightily on offense last season, but how have they fared when traveling east recently? Not too good. The Cowboys played regular season road games east of the Mississippi River seven times under Bohl (who remember is one of the best coaches the school has ever had). They were 2-5 straight up and ATS in those games. In some they were overmatched (Michigan State in 2014), but they were actually favored in three of those games (Eastern Michigan in 2016, Northern Illinois in 2021, and Connecticut in 2021). They won two (Northern Illinois and Connecticut), but needed overtime to beat Northern Illinois and edged Connecticut despite being a thirty point favorite! This team is not to be trusted on the road, even against the likes of Akron. The Zips don't have a lot to play for this season, being ineligible for the postseason thanks to a low APR score, and they have not had much straight up success under Moorhead (8-28 overall in three seasons). However, they have been tough ATS as a home underdog, posting a 7-3 mark. They have sealed the deal just three times in those ten games, so I expect Akron to lose by doing something incredibly stupid at the worst possible time (Zips have a -32 turnover margin under Moorhead), but they should stay within this number. 

Charlotte +6.5 Appalachian State @ Bank of America Stadium

These two teams both entered FBS at around the same time (2014 for App State and 2015 for Charlotte), are located in North Carolina, are breaking in new coaches, and their mascots end in 'ers' (49ers and Mountaineers), but the similarities end there. App State was an FCS power before transitioning to FBS, while Charlotte was a football startup before their transition. App State has had just one losing season as an FBS program (for the pedants, I know they were technically FBS before the term existed in the 1970s and 80s) while Charlotte has had just one winning season as an FBS program. Despite their success as an FBS program, I think App State is in their worst position programmatically since they began their maiden FBS season 1-5. After that rough start, the Mountaineers closed the 2014 season on a six-game winning streak and then reeled off double-digit victories in four of the next five seasons (they won nine games in the other). Befitting a program with that kind of success at the Group of Five level, their head coaches got jobs at better (or at least those that pay better) programs. Scott Satterfield left for Louisville and Eli Drinkwitz took the Missouri job. To replace Drinkwitz, who left following the 2019 season, the Mountaineers turned to alum and offensive line coach Shawn Clark. Framed one way, the hire could be deemed a success. The Mountaineers were 40-24 under Clark and played in two Sun Belt Championship Games (losing both). However, its also clear the program slipped under Clark. From 2014-2019 under Satterfield and Drinkwitz, the Mountaineers were 26-23-1 ATS as a betting favorite. Under Clark (2020-2024), the Mountaineers were 13-23-2 ATS as a betting favorite. I know the betting line is not the best way to evaluate a head coach, but the Mountaineers only lost outright five times as a betting favorite under Satterfield and Drinkwitz while doing so thirteen times under Clark. They lost nearly three times as often in twelve fewer opportunities. The oddsmakers and the betting market rated the Mountaineers as a top end Sun Belt team, but they did not live up to the expectations. Can we expect anything different under new coach Dowell Loggains? Loggains spent most of career in the NFL, where he coordinated the offense for the Chicago Bears in 2016 and 2017 and the Miami Dolphins in 2018. I'll save you the trouble of looking those teams up. Their offenses, and the teams in general, were not good. He spent the past four seasons in college, first at Arkansas as a tight ends coach and the past two seasons at South Carolina as an offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks had a decent offense last season, but I live in Columbia, and no one was crying when Loggains left to take take the App State job. Loggains has never been a head coach before and does not have a track record of success on his side of the ball. Contrast that with Charlotte's new coach, Tim Albin. Albin won an NAIA title at Northwestern Oklahoma State in 1999 and was Frank Solich's right hand man at Ohio before taking over the job in 2021. After a rough start, Albin led the Bobcats to three consecutive ten win seasons culminating with an elusive MAC title in 2024. Albin will be a success at Charlotte, but his first season will probably be a challenge. Still, with the 49ers playing an in-state rival with an unproven head coach, catching more than a touchdown, and playing in their city (home games are played in Jerry Richardson Stadium), Charlotte is the pick. 

Ohio State -2.5 Texas

This rematch of one of the 2024 CFP Semifinals is the crown jewel of Labor Day Weekend. These blue bloods last played in the regular season in 2005 and 2006 with the road team winning both games. The winner in each game also capped off an unbeaten regular season and won (Texas 2005) or played for (Ohio State in 2006) the BCS National Title. While both teams just played eight months ago, they will each be breaking in new signal callers. Texas has the quarterback with the better name recognition (Arch Manning), but I'm inclined to agree with noted troll Steve Spurrier who questioned how good Arch was if he couldn't beat out a seventh round pick last season. Meanwhile, Ohio State will start Julian Sayin as they replace the departing Will Howard. Sayin has thrown just twelve passes in his career (compared to 95 for Arch), but he should have a more talented supporting cast around him led by the explosive receiver Jeremiah Smith. This is an unusual spot for Ohio State. Under Ryan Day, the Buckeyes have been a regular season favorite of less than a touchdown just five times (at Michigan in 2021, at Notre Dame in 2023, home to Penn State in 2023, at Oregon in 2024, and at Penn State in 2024). The Buckeyes are a perfectly average 2-2-1 ATS in those five contests, but only one came in Columbus (Penn State in 2023). The Buckeyes were four point favorites, but beat the Nittany Lions in a defensive struggle 20-12. I expect a similar low-scoring affair here with both teams playing it safe with inexperienced quarterbacks. This is also an unusual spot for Texas as the Longhorns have only been road underdogs four times under head coach Steve Sarkisian. They won at Alabama as a touchdown underdog in 2023 (as a member of the Big 12), but are just 1-3 ATS overall in the role. You are getting the Buckeyes on the cheap, so back them in the biggest game of Week One. 

Mississippi State -11.5 Southern Miss

I don't typically like laying points, especially on the road, and especially with bad teams, but I think the market has gone too far in their love affair with Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles finished 1-11 last season (no FBS wins), fired their head coach, and switched out a significant portion of their roster with the reigning Sun Belt champs. Head coach Charles Huff made the unique in-conference coaching change, coming west from Huntington and bringing some of his best players with him. Thats great news for Southern Miss. The Eagles won't go 1-11 in 2025, but I'm not sure the influx of Marshall players makes this team a legitimate contender in the Sun Belt, much less a threat to challenge Mississippi State. The Bulldogs were also bad last season, but at least they were SEC bad. They were bludgeoned at home by Toledo and lost every conference game by at least ten points, but they were also on their third coach in three seasons. With some continuity at the top and a solid returning quarterback in Blake Shapen, the Bulldogs should easily eclipse last season's meager two wins and potentially even win a conference game for the first time since mid-2023. Mississippi State plays fast, which is what you want to see from a team laying a lot of points. I don't think they will take their in-state rival lightly after what Toledo did to them last season. Take the Bulldogs to rout the Golden Eagles. 

Northwestern +6.5 Tulane

One of my handicapping methods is betting against anomalies and this game fits that perfectly. Tulane has been quite good over the past few seasons, appearing in three consecutive AAC (now American) Championship Games. They have also appeared in the AP Poll in each of the past three seasons. However, this recent come up is an outlier for the Green Wave. After finishing unbeaten in 1998 under Tommy Bowden, Tulane posted just five winning seasons between 1999 and 2021. The also marks the first time Tulane has been favored against a power conference opponent in a very long time. Since 2005, Tulane has played 32 power conference teams and been an underdog in every one. They are 3-29 straight up in those games, albeit a more respectable 14-18 ATS. As for Northwestern, they are 21-6 straight up against non-power conference opponents since 2005. They have been favored in all 27 games except one. Their ATS record has been bad (9-17-1), but that is a function of the Wildcats being healthy favorites in nearly every game and enduring some close calls. I'm expecting Northwestern to have their best offense in recent memory thanks to the addition of quarterback Preston Stone via the transfer portal. Stone led SMU to an unbeaten conference record in 2023, but broke his leg in the regular season finale against Navy. He struggled upon returning in 2024 and was ultimately replaced by Kevin Jennings who led SMU to an undefeated ACC regular season and the expanded CFP. An outright victory by the Wildcats would not surprise me. 

UTEP +6.5 Utah State

The Miners and Aggies are two ships passing in the night. Next year, UTEP will join the Mountain West while Utah State (along with Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State from the Mountain West and Texas State from the Sun Belt) will join Oregon State and Washington State in whatever the Pac-12 is calling its new incarnation. These two teams have faced off three times, with Utah State winning all three games. However, two of the games occurred in the 1960s and the most recent came in 2014. Interestingly, each Aggies win has been by almost the exact same score. They won 20-7 in 1960 and then won by identical 21-6 scores more than fifty years apart (1961 and 2014). I'm not a man who makes a lot of bold predictions, but I dare say this UTEP team will score the most point they ever have against Utah State and may even eclipse their point total for the three previous games combined. The Miners have better continuity at the top, as head coach Scotty Walden enters his second season in El Paso after a successful run at Austin Peay in the FCS. Meanwhile, Utah State is on their third coach in three seasons after Blake Anderson coached the team for three seasons (2021-2023), but was fired in July before the 2024 season began. Defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling was named the interim coach and the Aggies struggled through a lost season finishing 4-8. In the offseason, they lured Bronco Mendenhall from conference rival New Mexico. Mendenhall will be successful long term in Logan, but I don't think his team should be laying nearly a touchdown in their opener. Utah State is Mendenhall's fourth stop, so I went and looked to see how his previous three schools performed in his debut. Mendenhall's first head coaching job was at BYU in 2005. The once proud Cougar program was coming off of three consecutive losing seasons under Gary Crowton. The Cougars were slight home underdogs to Boston College in their opener and lost 20-3. Mendenhall stayed in Provo for eleven seasons before taking the Virginia job in 2016. Virginia was coming off four consecutive losing seasons under Mike London and opened the Mendenhall era by hosting Richmond of the FCS. The Cavaliers were upset by the Spiders 37-20. Richmond ended up being a good FCS team, advancing to the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs. Mendenhall coached Virginia for six seasons before retiring after 2021. He did not coach for two seasons before taking the New Mexico job in 2024. The Lobos were in very bad shape when he arrived, coming off of eight consecutive losing seasons under Bob Davie and Danny Gonzales. The Lobos opened the season as hefty home underdogs to Montana State of the FCS. New Mexico played well, but coughed up.a fourth quarter lead in losing to the eventual FCS runner-up. So, in three previous openers, Mendenhall's teams are 0-3, with two losses to FCS teams. His teams eventually end up being successful, but they are not great out of the gate. Were this game being played in 2026, I could probably get behind Utah State. But in an opener against a team with a successful coach of their own who is in his second season, I have to back the underdog. 

Rice +13.5 Louisiana-Lafayette

Rice enters 2025 with a new football coach. The Owls hired a coach intimately familiar with winning at small academically minded institutions. Scott Abell coached Washington and Lee from 2012 to 2017 and has been the head coach at Davidson since 2018. In those thirteen seasons, Abell suffered just one losing campaign. If he has similar success at Rice, he may not be around long. The Owls have had just four winning seasons since 2007. Give the Owls credit though, they know the score. They have had just two head coaches in those eighteen seasons, giving their leaders plenty of time to try and push that boulder up the hill. Rice will be transitioning to a version of the option under Abell, so there may be some growing pains, but I expect this hire to be a success in the long run. To open the Abell era, Rice will travel to Louisiana-Lafayette, a team that ended last year on a down note, but still won ten games for the fourth time in school history. The Ragin' Cajuns were building to last season under third year coach and alum Michael Desormeaux. In his first two seasons, Louisiana-Lafayette finished with identical 6-7 records before winning the Sun Belt West last year. They lose a lot from last year's team so some regression should be expected. With that in mind, I have a hard time understanding this number. Its not a perfect metric, but if this game were played last year, the Simple Rating System would have made this spread about twelve points. Louisiana-Lafayette's SRS was slightly above average last season (0.99) while Rice was their usual below average self (-7.88). The difference between these two teams was about nine points and if you give three points for homefield advantage, that comes to twelve. Once again, that was last season. With marginal regression at Louisiana-Lafayette and potential improvement at Rice, this line should be closer to nine or ten points. Then couple in the fact that Rice should be running the ball and by extension chewing the clock, it will be hard for the Ragin' Cajuns to get margin. There is potential Rice is flat out bad in 2025 as they switch to the option, but I think this is a spot to bet into uncertainty. I would not be surprised if Rice catches Louisiana-Lafayette flatfooted and wins this game outright. 

Strangers in the Field: Part X

Hard to believe I have been making the pilgrimage to Vegas for ten years. Read on for my investment portfolio. 

College Football Plays

Over/Under Win Totals

I made 49 college football win total plays (four more than last year). They are listed below, broken down by conference. 

AAC Plays

East Carolina under 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

The Pirates won four of their final five regular season games after firing Mike Houston in 2024. The wins were good, but the competition was not great. I think the Pirates come back to earth, especially with two power conference teams (BYU and NC State) on the non-conference schedule. 

Florida Atlantic over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $50)

I like hire of Zach Kittley as head coach and I expect this offense to do enough to get the Owls close to a bowl game. 

Navy under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $50)

The Midshipmen were good last season, but their turnover margin (+10) spells regression. Eight wins is still a good season for a service academy. 

Rice over 3.5 wins ($400 to collect $650)

This, along with Virginia Tech, is my biggest win total play. People are sleeping on Rice, but I expect the hire of Scott Abell and the implementation of the triple to provide immediate dividends. 

Tulane under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

The non-con is tougher that it initially appears with three power conference teams (Duke, Northwestern, and Ole Miss). The Green Wave may be favored in two of those games, but 0-3 or 1-2 is entirely possible. 

ACC Plays

California over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $52.50)

I'll make the contrarian play here. There is not a guaranteed win on the schedule outside of Texas Southern, but I think the market is too low on a Cal team that lost five games by a touchdown or less last season.  

Clemson under 10.5 wins ($50 to collect $83.35)

I found a stray ten and a half and had to play it (rest of market is at nine and a half). Georgia Tech, Louisville, LSU, North Carolina, SMU, and South Carolina are all potentially losable games. This is not the late 2010s Clemson team. 

Miami under 9.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.15)

Miami beat me last year when I had under nine and a half. I'm back for more punishment. The Hurricanes gain Carson Beck, but lose the number one pick in the NFL Draft who papered over a lot of their problems last season. 

NC State over 6.5 ($25 to collect $53.75)

After disappointing with a 6-7 mark, I think NC State is back in the eight or nine win range. The only surefire loss on the schedule is a road trip to Notre Dame. 

Virginia Tech over 6.5 wins ($400 to collect $860)

For some reason all the gambling podcasts I listen to are down on the Hokies. I look at their 2024 season and see a team that led at halftime in seven of their eight ACC games (four times by double digits). If the Hokies can close games out, they could be headed to the ACC Championship Game. 

Big 10 Plays

Illinois under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $62.50)

Not buying the preseason hype. This team was extremely fortunate to win ten games last season. I wish this total had been eight and a half, but I had to play it out of principle. 

Maryland over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $48.80)

I hated the Mike Locksley hire at first, but maturity involves admitting when you were wrong. Prior to lats season, Maryland had played in three consecutive bowl games. With a schedule devoid of Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State, I think they come close to bowl eligibility. 

Michigan under 8.5 wins ($50 to collect $122.50)

The Wolverines won eight games last season, but could easily have finished 6-6 or 5-7. The pulled two massive upsets in their final two games (Ohio State and the bowl against Alabama), but also won tight games against Michigan State, Minnesota, and Southern Cal. Not only are there challenging road games on the slate (Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Southern Cal), but the home schedule has some land mines as well (Ohio State, Washington, and Wisconsin). 

Northwestern over 3.5 wins ($50 to collect $80.30)

There are two guaranteed wins on the slate (Louisiana-Monroe and Western Illinois). I think the Wildcats are good enough to find two more. 

Oregon under 10.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

Road trips to Iowa, Penn State, and Washington, as well as home titles with Indiana, Southern Cal, and Wisconsin make me think the Ducks lose at least twice in 2025. 

Penn State under 10.5 wins ($25 to collect $43.50)

The Nittany Lions are likely your preseason number one team. However, back to back road trips to Iowa and Ohio State could ruin push them under this number. 

Wisconsin over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $56.25)

The schedule is brutal, but I think the Badgers pull off an upset or two to get to a bowl game. 

Big 12 Plays

Arizona State under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $45)

The Sun Devils were legitimately good last season, but I still expect regression. The Big 12 is too deep to have a team win back to back titles. 

Oklahoma State over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $60)

Does Mike Gundy have one more good ride in him? The Cowboys were the second best team in the Big 12 heading into last season based on the preseason consensus. They did not win a single conference game. I think they bounce back and get to a bowl. 

Texas Tech under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $52.50)

I have two theories with the new world of college football (NIL and the transfer portal). Full on transplants are very likely to succeed (see Western Kentucky in 2021 and Indiana and Vanderbilt in 2024 as prominent examples), but buying a nearly full roster does not work as well. Football requires too much continuity and free agency is not a way to build a winner. It can augment a team, but rosters have to be built from the high school ranks. We'll see if the Red Raiders refute my theory, but they have not finished with more than eight regular season victories since 2008. 

UCF over 5.5 wins ($50 to collect $90)

The Knights were much better than their 4-8 record last season. Hopefully they can at least get to a bowl.

Conference USA Plays

Delaware over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25)

Welcome to FBS Blue Hens! Delaware has a solid history as an FCS program and I expect them to immediately be competitive in Conference USA. 

FIU over 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $50)

I love the coaching hire and the Panthers were better than their record in 2024. 

Jacksonville State under 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $36.90)

Its a story as old as time. Mid to low level college football team peaks. Coach uses that peak to angle for a better job. Mid to low level team declines. The Gamecocks can get to a bowl and still cash this under bet. 

Middle Tennessee State over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

I though Derek Mason would have the Blue Raiders competitive in his first season. Never wrong. Just early. 

Missouri State under 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $45.85)

Missouri State does not have the FCS history of Delaware and I think they will struggle in their maiden voyage. 

Sam Houston State under 4.5 wins ($200 to collect $410)

KC Keeler is a great football coach. Unfortunately for the Bearkats, he is now the head coach at Temple. 

Independent Plays

Connecticut under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.85)

The Huskies won eight regular season games last year. That was their most regular season victories since winning the Big East in 2010. So how can we expect them to equal that win total, especially with three power conference teams on the schedule (Boston College, Duke, and Syracuse)? A bowl should be the goal, not eight wins. 

MAC Plays

Ball State over 3.5 wins ($50 to collect $90)

I like the coaching hire and I think the Cardinals can be a mid-level MAC team in Mike Uremovich's first season. 

Buffalo under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $52.50)

I think the Buffalo hype train might be picking up a little too much steam. The Bulls closed the regular season on a four game winning streak (the bowl made five), but they laid some eggs against the better teams on the schedule. Let's not pencil them into the MAC Championship Game yet. 

Eastern Michigan over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $46.75)

Chris Creighton has been at Easter Michigan for eleven seasons. He has guided the Eagles to at least five regular season wins in the past eight non-Covid years. Its a testament to what he has built that last season's 5-7 record is seen as a disappointment. 

Kent State over 1.5 wins ($100 to collect $164.50)

I love to dumpster dive and there is not a more distressed asset than Kent State. The Golden Flashes have not beaten an FBS team since the 2022 regular season finale. If they beat Merrimack in the opener, they need to find one MAC win to make this a winner. But if they lose to the Warriors...

Kent State over 2 wins ($25 to collect $51.25)

Once again, I'm taking a flyer on Kent State. They fired their coach in the spring and they can't possibly be worse than they were under his 'tutelage'. 

Mountain West Plays

Air Force over 5.5 wins ($50 to collect $78.55)

The Falcons closed last year strong (four consecutive wins after a 1-7 start) and I think they bounce back after a rare losing season under Troy Calhoun.

Boise State under 9.5 wins ($25 to collect $67.50)

In the ten non-Covid years since Chris Petersen left Boise, the Broncos have lost at least three regular season games six times. The Broncos were the first Group of Five team to make the expanded College Football Playoff, but I think there are a few losses on this schedule starting with the opener at South Florida. 

Fresno State over 6.5 wins ($25 to collect $41.65)

I like the hire of Matt Entz (former North Dakota State coach) and after their Week Zero tilt with Kansas, the Bulldogs may only be an underdog in one other game (Boise State). 

New Mexico over 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $53.75)

I like the hire of Jason Eck from Idaho and while the Lobos lose a lot from last year's surprise 5-7 team, they have more several winnable games on the slate (Idaho State, New Mexico State, Nevada, and Utah State). 

San Diego State over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25 wins)

Sean Lewis brought Kent State to respectability in his second season and I expect no less at a program with infinitely more resources. 

UNLV under 8.5 wins ($25 to collect $45.85)

Take a look at UNLV's football history. The past two seasons stick out like a sore thumb. I don't think the Rebels sink to a losing record, but they are probably back to being a mid-level Mountain West team. 

SEC Plays

Florida under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $44.25)

The Gators won seven regular season games in 2024 despite a brutal schedule. The schedule is just as arduous in 2025 and they won't be sneaking up on anyone. 

Kentucky over 4.5 wins ($25 to collect $47.75)

I'll take a chance on Mark Stoops righting the ship. The Wildcats don't even have to get to bowl eligibility to cash this ticket. Of course, it could be dead in the water if they lose the opener to Toledo. 

Missouri under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $38.90)

The Tigers were much worse than their record last season. I think regression comes for them hard in 2025. 

South Carolina under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $42.25)

The Gamecocks had five players drafted from last year's defense. Even if LaNorris Sellers continues to improve, I think this team declines. 

Sun Belt Plays

Appalachian State under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $58.75)

I hate the head coaching hire. If the Mountaineers lose their opener to Charlotte, it could be one and done for Dowell Loggains. 

Arkansas State under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $39.70)

The Red Wolves were an incredible 7-1 in one-score games last season. Regression is coming. 

Georgia Southern under 7.5 wins ($50 to collect $82.25)

Trust Clay Helton with more than modest expectations at your own peril. 

Georgia State under 3.5 wins ($25 to collect $45)

I'm starting to regret this bet a bit, but the Panthers will be behind the eight ball after a likely 1-3 non-conference slate. 

Louisiana-Lafayette under 7.5 wins ($25 to collect $48.80)

Before dropping the Sun Belt Championship Game and their bowl, 2024 was a special season for the Ragin' Cajuns. I expect a drop off, especially with South Alabama, Southern Miss, and Texas State (and maybe even Troy) providing stiff competition in the West Division. 

Marshall under 5.5 wins ($25 to collect $37.50)

Most of their team left to join head coach Charles Huff at Southern Miss. This is a rebuilding year in Huntington. 

College Football Futures

Auburn to win the SEC ($10 to collect $260)

Auburn historically underachieved relative to their YPP and 1HPD last season. With some better luck, I think they have the upside to potentially get to the SEC Championship Game. 

Iowa to make the College Football Playoff ($10 to collect $80)

The Hawkeyes are always strong defensively and with the addition of South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski at quarterback, the offense has potential to make things interesting in the Big 10. 

Utah to win the Big 12 ($10 to collect $57.50)

The Utes should bounce back in their second season in the Big 12 and in a wide open league, they have a good a shot as anyone to capture the conference crown. 

UTSA to make the College Football Playoff ($10 to collect $230)

At least one Group of Five team has to make the College Football Playoff. If the Roadrunners can win the AAC and hang tough with Texas A&M in the opener, they should be in the conversation. 

Washington to make the College Football Playoff ($10 to collect $100)

Quarterback Demond Williams only saw significant action in their final two games (both losses by the way), but he has the potential upside to make the Huskies Big 10 contenders. 

College Football Parlay ($10 to collect $94.90 - all must hit)

August 28

NC State moneyline over East Carolina

I think the Wolfpack get revenge for last season's bowl loss to the Pirates. 

August 28

UCF moneyline over Jacksonville State

The Gamecocks should be outclassed against the Knights in Scott Frost's return to Orlando.

August 29

Colorado +4 Georgia Tech

The Buffaloes are tough at home and Georgia Tech might be getting a little too much offseason love for a team coming off back to back 7-6 campaigns. 

August 30

Northwestern +6.5 Tulane

I would not be surprised if the Wildcats won outright. 

August 30 

Rice +14 Louisiana-Lafayette

Rice is one of my biggest over plays this season, so naturally I think they can keep this game close. 

MLB Futures

Tampa Bay Rays to win American League ($10 to collect $190)

In late June, the Rays were 47-36. They are 9-23 since and more importantly, 6-12 since I made this bet. I can probably throw this one in the trash. 

Thanks for reading my annual Vegas trip summary. The season gets underway in sixteen days with Week Zero. There won't be enough games for spread picks that weekend, but I'll be back with weekly picks shortly after that Saturday appetizer. 

First Half Point Differential: The 2024 Power Four

Two weeks ago, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season. This week, we do the same with the Power Four.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2024 ACC standings. 

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded).

The first and third ranked teams in 1HPD met in the ACC Championship Game, with the third ranked team pulling off a small upset. More on the team that finished second in IHPD later. 

Big 10

The 2024 Big 10 standings.

1HPD in Big 10 play (title game excluded). 

The first and fourth ranked teams in 1HPD met in the Big 10 Championship Game with the top ranked team holding on to win. However, the top four teams in 1HPD were all selected for the expanded College Football Playoff with the third ranked team winning it all. At the bottom of the 1HPD standings, Purdue made their nine Big 10 opponents look like Oregon, posting a horrid -152 1HPD and getting Ryan Walters fired in the process. 

Big 12

The 2024 Big 12 standings.

1HPD in Big 12 play (title game excluded). 

Arizona State finished first in 1HPD and won the Big 12 Championship Game in their first season in the conference. However, their opponent in the title game (Iowa State) finished a distant eleventh in 1HPD. At the other end of the Territorial Cup, Arizona brought up the rear in 1HPD. 

SEC

The 2024 SEC standings. 

1HPD in SEC play.

Texas finished first in the SEC in 1HPD in their first season in the conference, but lost the SEC Championship Game to Georgia. The other SEC newcomer from the Big 12 did not fare as well. Oklahoma finished ahead of only winless Mississippi State in 1HPD. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Four conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Missouri finished 5-3 in SEC play, but the Tigers trailed at the half in five of their conference games and entered halftime tied in two others. Iowa State won seven Big 12 games and thanks to tiebreakers, qualified for the Big 12 Championship Game. While the Cyclones only trailed at the half in two of their nine conference games, most of their games were still in doubt during the intermission. They led at the half in six conference games, but five of those leads were by five points or fewer. Miami nearly played in the ACC Championship Game before ironically blowing a second half lead to Syracuse. Turnabout was fair play, as the Hurricanes trailed at the half in four of their eight ACC games, including twice by double digits. Georgia won their second SEC title in three years, but trailed at the half in four of their eight SEC games. 

And now the underachievers. 

Virginia Tech finished second in the ACC in 1HPD, leading at the half in an astounding seven of their eight conference games! Kentucky won just a single SEC game, but the Wildcats were competitive at the half in a majority of their games. They led at the half in three conference games, were tied in another, and trailed by a touchdown or less in two more. Wisconsin won just a third of their Big 10 games, but led at the half in two thirds of their conference games, including four times by double digits. Utah failed to live up to their preseason expectations in 2024, but the Utes led at the half in three Big 12 games, were tied in another, and trailed by a touchdown or less in three more. Auburn mastered giving games away in 2024. The Tigers were ahead or tied at the half in five of their eight SEC games. In Mack Brown's final season in Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels finished with a losing ACC record despite leading at the half in four of their eight conference games. They led by double digits in three of those games, and were tied or within a touchdown at the half in three more. Now another septuagenarian will attempt to bring the Tar Heels to the forefront of college football. Finally, Nebraska finished 3-6 in Big 10 play, but led by double digits at halftime in three of their conference games, led by a touchdown in another, and were tied in two others. 

Thanks once again for your continued patronage. I'll be back in a few weeks with a Vegas betting recap and then it will almost be time for the season to start. 

First Half Point Differential: The 2024 Group of Five

After a bit of a hiatus, we return to our review of the 2024 college football season.This week, we will look at how each Group of Five conference played out in terms of First Half Point Differential (1HPD). As I have mentioned before, 1HPD is a very advanced stat. It tells us how many points a team either outscored or was outscored by their opponents in the first half of games. If you need additional background on this statistic, I invite you to look up each word individually. Why do we look at this stat? Its far from a perfect measure, but it can sometimes point us toward teams that are due for improvement or regression the next season.  In theory, teams that pull off a lot of second half comebacks might not be as fortunate the next season and teams that lead at the half, but can't quite close the deal might be better than their actual record. It helps guide some of my over/under win total bets, but your mileage may vary.

American Athletic Conference

The 2024 AAC standings. 

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the AAC Championship Game with the top team winning in somewhat dominant fashion. At the other end of the AAC, Tulsa was dead last by a significant margin. Their 1HPD was more than twice as bad as the second worst team (Temple).

Conference USA

The 2024 Conference USA standings.

1HPD in Conference USA play (title game excluded).

The top two teams in 1HPD also met in the Conference USA Championship Game. While the top two teams were close in 1HPD, their matchup in the title game was not. Western Kentucky opened the scoring with a field goal, but Jacksonville State outscored the Hilltoppers 52-9 the rest of the way. 

Mid-American

The 2024 MAC standings. 

1HPD in MAC play (title game excluded).

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the MAC Championship Game (sensing a theme here?). Much like Conference USA, while the top two teams were close in 1HPD, the title game was not. Miami kicked a field goal to go up 3-0, but Ohio scored the final 38 points of the game to win their first ever MAC Championship Game and first MAC title since 1968. At the bottom of the MAC standings, Kent State's 1HPD was more than twice as bad as the second worst team (Eastern Michigan). 

Mountain West

The 2024 Mountain West standings. 

1HPD in Mountain West play (title game excluded). 

Like the previous three Group of Five conferences, the top two teams in 1HPD met in the Mountain West Championship Game. And once again, despite the relative tightness of the top two teams in 1HPD, the title game was not especially close. 

Sun Belt

The 2024 Sun Belt standings. 

1HPD in Sun Belt play (title game excluded). 

The Sun Belt was the streak breaker in 2024. The top two teams did not meet in the Sun Belt Championship Game. However, the teams ranked second and third in 1HPD did face off in the title game. Like the other Group of Five title games, this one was also a dud, at least from a competitive standpoint. I suppose if you were a Marshall fan, you were not overly concerned about the competitiveness. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Tulsa technically overachieved since a team with their 1HPD (trailed on average by 23 points per game at the half) usually finishes winless in conference play. In Tulsa's lone league win, they overcame a 28-point halftime deficit against UTSA. Boise State never trailed at the half in Mountain West play, but they were tied in three games, and held a lead of less than a touchdown in another. Colorado State rode an easy conference schedule to a 6-1 record and nearly qualified for the Mountain West Championship Game. However, the Rams trailed at the half in two of their seven conference games and were tied in another. Louisiana-Lafayette only trailed at the half in one of their Sun Belt games, but they were down by three touchdowns which significantly suppressed their overall numbers. Finally, East Carolina finished with a winning record in AAC play despite trailing at the half in four of their eight conference games, including three times by double digits. 

And now the underachievers. 

Tom Herman lost his job at Florida Atlantic because the Owls could not close the deal. They won just a single game in AAC play despite leading at the half in four games and trailing by more than a touchdown at halftime just once. Nevada was not a good team in 2024, but their profile did not befit a team that finished winless in conference play. The Wolfpack were tied or leading at the half in three of their seven conference games. UTSA finished with a .500 record in AAC play despite leading at the half in five of their eight conference games. Their under-performance is mostly explained by their shocking loss to Tulsa I mentioned above. Four seasons after winning the MAC in the Covid-impacted 2020 season, Mike Neu lost his job at his alma mater thanks to the Cardinals struggles in the second half. Ball State led at the half in three of their five conference games and trailed by double digits in just one. Finally, Georgia State only led at the half in one of the conference games, but they were tied in two others and trailed by a touchdown or less in two more. The Panthers probably should have won at least one additional conference game in Dell McGee's first season in Atlanta. 

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in two weeks with a look at first half point differential in the Power Four. 

2024 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Sun Belt

Last week we looked at how Sun Belt teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2024 Sun Belt standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Sun Belt teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Arkansas State and Marshall were the only Sun Belt teams that saw their actual record differ significantly (difference of a game and a half or more) from their APR. The Red Wolves and Thundering Herd significantly exceeded their APR and they also exceeded their expected record based on Yards Per Play. We went over some reasons for that last week, so no need to rehash it here. 

Conference Championship Game, No Bowl

Marshall pulled off a rare feat in 2024. The Thundering Herd won the Sun Belt, but did not play in a bowl game. There were of course, some extenuating circumstances that precipitated their absence from bowl season. Their head coach took another job in what seemed like mere seconds after the Sun Belt Championship Game. His departure led to a staggering number of players entering the transfer portal. And their bowl opponent happened to be a very good triple option team. Marshall opted out of the Independence Bowl and became just the twelfth team team to participate in their conference title game and not participate in bowl season. The Herd and the other eleven are listed below. 

Marshall is even more rarified air as they join UAB in the pandemic impacted 2020 season as the only other conference championship game victor to sit out bowl season. The Blazers had been set to play South Carolina in the Gasparilla Bowl, but the Gamecocks withdrew due to an uptick in Covid-19 cases within the program and the game was canceled. 

You may notice that five teams in the preceding table have asterisks by their name. The reason? Those teams all faced Marshall in their respective conference title games. The Thundering Herd kept four consecutive MAC teams from appearing in a bowl by beating them in the conference title game. This was in an era when mid-major conferences only had one or two bowl tie-ins. They were also defeated by the aforementioned UAB Blazers in the 2020 Conference USA Championship Game. 

That will close out our 2024 YPP and APR recaps. Thanks for reading. I hope you learned a little something and were at least marginally entertained in the past four and a half months. If you are curious, the rest of our summer schedule is as follows. I'll be taking the month of June off, but will return the first Thursday in July with a breakdown of First Half Point Differential in the Group of Five. Two weeks later, we'll look at the same stat in the Power Four. Two or three weeks after that, I'll recap my annual Vegas trip, and then we should be within shouting distance of the regular season. During the season, every Thursday, I'll post my seven favorite picks against the spread. And before you know it, another year will have come and gone. Thanks as always for reading. I appreciate the handful of folks who keep returning year after year. See you in July!

2024 Yards Per Play: Sun Belt

I know its hard to believe, but our time reviewing the 2024 season is nearly at an end. The final conference for us to look at is the Sun Belt. 

Here are the 2024 Sun Belt standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Sun Belt team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2024 season, which teams in the Sun Belt met this threshold? Here are Sun Belt teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

A quartet of teams in the Sun Belt saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record based on Yards per Play. The trio of Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, and Marshall significantly exceeded their expected record while Georgia State underachieved. Arkansas State (4-1), Georgia Southern (2-1), and Marshall (3-1) all performed well in close conference games. All three were also on the positive side of fourth down variance. Arkansas State converted twelve of their fifteen fourth down attempts in league play. Georgia Southern (six of nine) and Marshall (six of ten) were good, but not quite as charmed as the Red Wolves on their fourth down conversions. Georgia Southern also stopped eight of their opponents' eleven fourth down attempts in Sun Belt play, generating an additional eight hidden turnovers. Meanwhile, Georgia State finished 1-3 in one-score conference games, had a negative in-conference turnover margin (-3), and converted just five of their eighteen fourth down attempts in Sun Belt action. Those fourth down failures represent thirteen hidden turnovers not accounted for in their already poor turnover margin. 

Dominated By Conference Opponents Part Deux

In last week's post on the SEC, we examined Mississippi State's horrendous conference season in 2024. The Bulldogs dropped all of their SEC games with each loss coming by double digits. I mentioned the Bulldogs were not the only FBS team to go winless in conference play in 2024 with each of their losses coming by double digits. Another team in the same state, Southern Miss, also managed that ignominious feat. The Golden Eagles were even worse relative to their competition than the Bulldogs. Southern Miss lost their eight Sun Belt games by more than 25 points per game. They lost to Louisiana-Lafayette in their conference opener by ten points and that represented their high water mark in league play. Southern Miss became the tenth non-power (non-BCS/Group of Five) team to finish winless in conference play with all of their losses coming by double digits in the BCS/CFP era (since 1998). The other nine teams are listed below along with their performance in the follow up season. 

The nine non-power teams improved more in the aggregate than their power conference brethren we examined last week (.257 conference winning percentage in the follow up season compared to .200 for power conference teams). This makes sense. Power conferences tend to have more strict tiers of power, while non-powers are more fluid in their hierarchy. 

You may have noticed a few asterisks in the previous table. That was intentional. Unlike Mississippi State, who retained their coach despite their poor conference performance, Southern Miss will have a new head coach in 2025. Will Hall was fired midway through the 2024 season after a 1-6 start. Reed Stringer was the interim coach and I suppose received a nice paycheck for his 'performance'. The Golden Eagles pulled off a coup by getting Charles Huff (not to be confused with Charlie Hough) from conference rival Marshall to be their new coach. Huff has been moderately successful in his four seasons as a head coach, even guiding the Thundering Herd to the Sun Belt title last season. The good news for Huff is that the previous teams to swap out coaches after a crash and burn conference season all improved by multiple games in the following season. 

It might be the equivalent of a dead cat bounce, but I expect at least modest improvement in Hattiesburg in 2025. The Golden Eagles may not qualify for a bowl, but I expect two or three Sun Belt wins after their harrowing conference performance last season.

2024 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: SEC

Last week we looked at how SEC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2024 SEC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, SEC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as a somewhat arbitrary standard to determine whether a team significantly over or underachieved relative to their APR. By that standard, Missouri significantly exceeded their APR while Mississippi State underachieved. Missouri also overachieved relative to their expected record based on Yards Per Play and we went over some reasons for that last week. Mississippi State cannot blame a poor record in close games for their underachievement (as we'll discuss in a moment). They did have a poor in-conference turnover margin (-6) and were unable to get teams off the field on fourth down. Conference opponents only had eleven fourth down attempts against the Bulldogs, but they converted on nine of them. 

Dominated by Conference Opponents

There was some bad football played in the Magnolia State in 2024. Two teams, Mississippi State, and Southern Miss finished winless in conference play with each of their losses coming by double digits, joining a rather ignominious club. We'll discuss the Bulldogs this week and transition to the Golden Eagles next week when we look at the Sun Belt. 

In one of last year's SEC recaps, we touched on teams that went winless in conference play while losing all their games by double digits. The Bulldogs are the tenth power conference team in the BCS/CFP era to 'accomplish' the feat. The Bulldogs finished 0-8, with their average margin of defeat coming by 17.75 points, and their closest loss was by ten points. Feel free to read last year's post to see how they compare to the other nine teams. I, of course, am more concerned about how they will perform in 2025. The table below lists the previous nine teams and how they fared in the season following their noncompetitive conference season. 

In the aggregate, the teams improved although they still tended to be quite bad, winning just a fifth of their conference games in the follow up season. Seven of the nine teams improved and four of nine improved by at least two wins. 

You may have noticed a few asterisks in the previous table. Teams with one asterisk had the same coach in both seasons and teams with two asterisks had the same coach in both seasons with both seasons representing the first two seasons the coach was with the team. Both of those situations apply to Mississippi State. 2024 marked Jeff Lebby's first season as head coach in Starkville and barring some Hugh Freeze levels of indiscretion this summer, he should be the head coach of the Bulldogs in 2025. For teams that held onto their coach after a bad season, the results are similar to the aggregate results for all teams.

Seven teams kept their coach despite seeing their team finish winless in conference play with each loss coming by double digits. Five of the seven teams improved though they were still quite bad in the aggregate. 

The bad news for Mississippi State is that the two teams that finished winless in conference play with all their losses coming by double digits under first year head coaches did not show much improvement at all in their second year. 

The sample size is quite small (Kevin Steele at Baylor in 1999 and Ron Zook at Illinois in 2005), but those two teams improved by just a single win the following season. Baylor went winless again at the turn of the millennium and Illinois managed just a single conference win in 2006. Mississippi State plays in the arguably the nation's toughest conference, so the deck is stacked against them when it comes to improving in 2025.